Socio-Political Factors of the Military Conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic

El'zeni Nedal Khafez Zakariya Khafez PhD in Politics Postgraduate student, Institute of International Relations and World History, Lobachevsky University 603022, Russia, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanova str., 37 nedalzakariya@gmail.com Other publications by this author

Research methodology:- theoretical (analysis, synthesis, generalization, construction of hypotheses);

- empirical (observation, testing);

- experimental (ascertaining and forming experiments).

Objective: to analyze the main factors influencing the military conflict in Syria and identify the links between them.

Tasks:1.                  

Analysis of existing scientific research concerning the military conflict in Syria.

2.                   Identification of the main socio-political factors influencing the conflict and analysis of their interaction.

3.                   Assessment of the international role in the conflict, including the role of various States and international organizations.

4.                   Analysis of the impact of the economic crisis on the development of the conflict and its solution.

The main text.The military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic has been going on for the eighth year, and its causes and consequences still cause controversy and discussion in the international community.

In this article we will look at the socio-political factors that contributed to the emergence and continuation of this conflict.

One of the main factors is the political instability in Syria.

The study of this topic revealed many factors, including economic, political, social, religious and ethnic, that led to the conflict and continue to support it.

According to Dorsey: "The process of destabilization began in Syria even before the uprising in 2011, as the regime of Bashar al-Assad concentrated power and wealth in the hands of a narrow elite, mainly from the Alawite community, to the detriment of other ethnic and religious groups" ^[7].

The Syrian Arab Republic has long been an authoritarian State where one party controlled all aspects of the country's life. However, starting in 2011, a series of mass protests began in the country, which demanded reforms and freedom. These protests were brutally suppressed by the Government, which led to a wider uprising and a bloody conflict.

Another important factor is the religious aspect of the conflict. Syria is a multinational and multi–confessional state, where Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Christians and Druze live. Various religious groups are involved in the conflict, which are fighting for power and control over resources. Some groups, such as ISIS, attract their supporters by promising them the establishment of an Islamic state ^[2].

Another factor is the economic situation in the country. Syria is a country with limited resources that depend on oil and gas. The conflict has led to a significant deterioration of the economic situation in the country, reducing production and trade and significantly worsening the standard of living of many citizens. Economic problems have become one of the main reasons why people join various armed groups ^[9].

Another important factor is the geopolitical position of Syria. Syria is a strategically important country located at the intersection of key oil and gas transportation routes, as well as on the border with Israel, Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon. In this context, the military conflict in Syria has become one of the key elements of the global geopolitical game. The military actions in Syria have attracted the attention of many States and international organizations that have entered the conflict as parties or support various armed groups.

There are several groups involved in the conflict in Syria, each of which has its own interests and goals. The Syrian army, which supports the government, is fighting against opposition armed groups that seek to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. In addition, there are various terrorist organizations operating in Syria, such as ISIS and Al-Nusra, which use violence and terrorism for their own purposes ^[11].

From the study of the socio-political factors of the military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, many interrelations between various factors affecting the development of this conflict were revealed.

Social factors, such as economic instability, high unemployment, social and ethnic discrimination, are important causes of social tension in the country that gave rise to the conflict. In addition, religious differences, the presence of ethnic minorities and cultural differences also contributed to the escalation of the conflict.

Political factors, such as the existence of an authoritarian regime and its brutal methods of governance, corruption and a low level of human rights, also contribute to the conflict. In addition, the geopolitical interests of international players, including Russia, the United States and Iran, also have an impact on the conflict.

According to R. Hinnebusc: "Another factor contributing to the conflict was associated with global changes in the Middle East region, including the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Iraq War and the Arab Spring" ^[4].

The "Arab Spring" is a chain of mass protests that began at the end of 2010 in some countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The protests were mainly caused by public discontent with the economic and political situation in the region. There are many factors that led to the emergence of the "Arab Spring".

One of the key factors that led to the "Arab Spring" is the high level of unemployment and economic instability in the region. As Middle East expert Fuad Ajman notes, "Many young people cannot find work, and those who work earn extremely little, which leads to public discontent and continuous protests."

Another important factor is political repression and the lack of freedom of speech in the region. People cannot freely express their opinions and speak out against the government, which causes discontent and protests. As the author and Islamic historian Tariq Ramadan writes: "The political system in the region is characterized by a lack of democracy, corruption and authoritarianism, which leads to public discontent and unrest" ^[10].

The political system is also based, in my personal opinion, on the activities of politicians who play a key role in the military conflict in Syria. Below are some examples of their influence:

President Bashar al-Assad: He is the main political leader in Syria and heads the government of the country. Al-Assad has been criticized for violently suppressing peaceful protests at the beginning of the conflict, and his regime has been accused of committing numerous human rights violations and war crimes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia is one of the main allies of the Syrian government and actively supports it in the military conflict. Putin has repeatedly expressed support for government forces and signed several agreements on military cooperation with Syria ^[13].

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Turkey is one of the main opponents of the Syrian government and supports opposition militants. Erdogan advocated the creation of a no-fly zone over northern Syria, which could serve as a refuge for refugees and a base for opposition forces.

US President Joe Biden: The US is also an opponent of the Syrian government and supports opposition fighters. Biden promised to continue the policy of his predecessor, Barack Obama, to support the opposition and provide humanitarian assistance to Syrian refugees.

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: ISIS was one of the main forces during the conflict in Syria and captured most of the country's territory. Al-Baghdadi was the leader of the organization until his death in 2019. He was accused of numerous crimes against humanity, including murder and torture.^[6]

Political figures, both inside and outside the country, play a key role in the development of the military conflict in Syria. They determine the strategy and tactics of military operations, as well as influence the mood and opinions of the population.

Inside Syria, President Bashar al-Assad and his entourage play an important role. They determine the country's policy regarding the conflict and make decisions about military action. In addition, they have a significant impact on the perception of the conflict by the population and form public opinion.

The role of social media and the Internet in the emergence of the "Arab Spring" should also be taken into account. Social media enabled people to freely communicate and exchange information, which strengthened their mobilization ability and contributed to the emergence of mass protests. As the American sociologist Manuel Castillo notes: "Social media has become a means of mass communication that allows people to communicate and mobilize without leaving home, which enhances their civic activism" ^[12].

It was also revealed that various factors are not the causes of conflict in isolation from each other. For example, social tensions can be exacerbated by corruption and a low level of human rights, which can lead to a more serious conflict. Also, international players can use religious differences in the country to promote their interests and strengthen their power in the region.

International players such as the United States, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and others play an important role in the military conflict in Syria. Each of these countries has its own interests and strategies in the region, which can both contribute to and hinder the settlement of the conflict ^[8].

For example, Russia and Iran support the government forces of President Assad and help them in the fight against opposition forces, while the United States and its allies provide support to the opposition. Turkey is conducting operations in northern Syria against Kurdish militants, whom it considers terrorists.

The internal players in the military conflict in Syria are various groups and forces operating on the territory of the country. Among them are:

1.                   Government and security forces: army, police, various military formations, etc.

2. Opposition forces: armed groups, militants, rebels, etc.

3. Kurdish forces: the Kurdish National Army (SDF), the Kurian Democrats Party (PYD), etc.

4. Religious groups: Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, ISIS (banned in Russia), etc.

5. International terrorist organizations: al-Qaeda, ISIS (banned in Russia), etc.

6. States parties to the conflict: Russia, Iran, Turkey, USA, Saudi Arabia, etc.

7. Civilian population: residents trapped in a war zone, refugees and internally displaced persons ^[3].

Internal players play an important role in the military conflict in Syria, as they have significant power on the territory of the country and can influence the situation in various regions. In addition, internal players often have a strong local support base and can mobilize their supporters to take action during a conflict.

In the course of the study, the methodology of descriptive statistics was applied, in particular, the distribution of the number of deaths as a result of military operations in Syria by year for the period from 2011 to 2021 was analyzed ^[1].

Table 1: Distribution of deaths due to hostilities in Syria by year from 2011 to 2021.Year

As a result of the analysis, it can be summarized that from the presented descriptive statistics, military actions have been taking place in Syria since 2011, which led to a significant number of deaths. The maximum peak in the number of deaths was reached in 2014, and since then the number of deaths has been gradually decreasing, although it remains at a high level. These data indicate the ongoing tense situation in Syria and the need for further efforts to end the conflict and restore peace in that country ^[5].

The presented descriptive statistics are related to socio-political factors that contributed to the development of the military conflict in Syria. One of these factors may be the lack of political stability and conflicts between various political groups in the country. This could lead to the use of violence and armed actions to resolve political differences, which could contribute to an increase in the number of victims.

Another factor may be the presence of external players in the conflict who could supply weapons and support certain parties to the conflict. This could increase violence and increase the number of deaths as a result of military actions.

Socio-economic problems, such as high unemployment and uneven distribution of wealth in the country, may also be an important factor, which could lead to social tension and dissatisfaction, contributing to the growth of the conflict.

In general, the presented descriptive statistics show the complexity and versatility of socio-political factors that can influence the development of military conflicts in Syria and in other countries.