Scenarios of STR Development in the Logic of Socio-Political Changes (Based on the Materials of Stakeholders' Assessment)

Vlasova Ol'ga Ivanovna PhD in Sociology Associate professor, Department of Sociology and Social Work, Russian State Vocational Pedagogical University 620012, Russia, Sverdlovskaya oblast', g. Ekaterinburg, ul. Mashinostroitelei, 11, of. 0-410 vlasovaolga@list.ru Other publications by this author

Shvetsova Anastasiya Vladimirovna ORCID: 0000-0002-3379-1959 PhD in Sociology Senior Researcher, Russian State Vocational Pedagogical University 620000, Russia, Sverdlovsk region, Yekaterinburg, Mashinostroiteley str., 11 shvetsovaav@mail.ru

The academic debate around the effectiveness of the educational system in Russia has not subsided over the past three decades. The search for optimal models has created a situation of permanent reforms designed to integrate education into the global economic system so that it brings tangible benefits, i.e. it serves as a supplier of optimal personnel in terms of specialization and quality. This article is a reflection on the effectiveness of the educational system at the time of a new expected round of transformations and an invitation to a discussion about what needs to be provided in order to minimize the potential risks of changes at the level of secondary vocational education and create a viable training structure. We are also trying to connect various empirical contexts and theoretical languages that can help conceptualize a new strategic paradigm for SPE and see its role in the educational system.

The changes that have taken place since the beginning of the 90s have affected not only the institutional level of vocational education, but also the administrative system, funding models, and led to the emergence of new educational trajectories. After analyzing a wide pool of studies of secondary vocational education, we came to the conclusion that it is worth distinguishing between two types of transformations: internal, dictated by the functional features of the system and ultimately reduced to the quality of training, and external, due to global challenges, changing political conjuncture, adaptation to new conditions. In the first case, the actual areas of vulnerability of Russian vocational education are associated with the quality of graduate training, a high dropout rate of students, poor development of applied training tools, inconsistency with market requirements, low demand for secondary education ^[1].  The structure of the educational process in the SPE system is improving slowly, one of the reasons for which, according to experts, remains an excessive load on the staff in the absence of motivation of teachers.

In the second case, the speed of external calls is so high that it is not always possible to prepare an adequate response to them. The Russian system of secondary vocational education, acting as the successor of the Soviet system, inherited many elements of the planned model during the transition to a market economy. However, all of them were placed in a new matrix, which required participants in the educational process to restructure their knowledge and behavioral practices. In particular, the interpretation of education as a service ^[2] in the context of extra-budgetary financing and competition for the right to provide this service, led to a change in the status of educational organizations and the structure of relations between stakeholders. A side effect of the institutionalization of the labor market, the rejection of the distribution of graduates of the vocational school and the transition of the lines of interaction "vocational school-enterprise", "graduate-enterprise" into the system of civil law relations, was an increase in the uncertainty of youth labor strategies.

Structural changes in secondary vocational education began with the transfer of secondary vocational education institutions from the federal to the regional level of management, which in the first approximation reduced the funding of institutions, and in the second affected the ability of the center to implement a unified policy regarding secondary vocational education. This led to the search for new management levers, which were federal projects and priority programs that gave some colleges the opportunity to significantly increase their educational potential. However, regional co-financing as a prerequisite for entry into federal programs, as well as the designated sectoral priority, have become a rigid differentiating factor, as a result of which the SPO system has a structural stratification according to the level of the total budget, which means conditions for existence and development.

The latest challenges for Russian education are the Covid-19 pandemic and the military-political events of 2022. The shock transition to the remote demonstrated to the whole world the power of external circumstances. The global political crisis that followed the start of the special operation in Ukraine called into question the previous educational priorities based on the desire for international standardization. The issues that have arisen before the academic community at the moment are not as obvious as the pandemic issues, but much more complex, since they are not technical, but symbolic in nature, their solution affects the cultural code and national identity.        

The multidirectional and multi-level changes that have occurred in the PDF system over the past 30 years make the task of analyzing the current situation and promising development scenarios unattainable within the framework of a single study. Therefore, in this paper we will narrow the studied horizon to the institutional level and formulate the hypotheses of the study as follows:

1. New socio-political realities have an impact on transformational processes in the PDF, which can develop according to various scenarios, including a conservative reversal, adaptation to new conditions within the current trajectory and the development of an alternative scenario.

2. There are risks of stakeholders' rigidity to new introductory ones associated with low motivation and fatigue from lack of stability.

These hypotheses are tested in the presented study at the theoretical and practical level and are understood by the authors as an attempt to comprehend the strategic horizon of the modernization of the PDF. The purpose of the article is to analyze possible scenarios for the development of vocational education and their assessment from the perspective of key stakeholders – teachers and administrators of vocational training institutions.

Analysis of the actual problems of the PDF system in scientific discourse

The most important stage in the construction of a theoretical scenario for the development of the secondary vocational education system is the definition of semantic dominants, which largely depends on the educational policy of the state. Walter defines the policy of transition from school to work as a set of actions in the field of education and vocational training, employment and social security aimed at the transition of young people from the stages of education to professional activity ^[3]. The key aspect of the transition policy is the degree of institutional responsibility for this transition, which has been justified within the framework of individualizing and structural approaches ^[4]. With the individualizing approach, the difficulties of transition are attributed to the shortcomings of the individual, hence the discourse shifts towards the "peculiarities" of the generation, whereas the structural approach links the unfavorable situation with the inequality of social opportunities and the vulnerability of the system itself. The priorities of the educational policy of the Russian Federation are defined by law and analyzed in detail by the scientific community ^[5],[6]. At the same time, the transition to the practical plane makes significant adjustments to the plans and requires taking into account real contexts.

Considering the Russian experience on a global scale, it is worth noting that no educational model in the world looks complete and devoid of internal contradictions, although the goals and the level of stability of the system are different everywhere.   Vocational education in the Nordic countries, responding to the national demand for the creation of a welfare society, is focused on achieving equality and inclusiveness ^[7]. The gap between professional and academic education is examined through the prism of social justice and the impact of the degree level on income, status and perception by other people. Another important feature of the Scandinavian discourse is the search for a compromise between vocational education as teaching skills of a certain activity and the education of civic consciousness as a commitment to the ideals of a given society. The German system of dual education, in which the employer takes an active part in the training of personnel and the formation of an educational request, is considered one of the most effective in the world. However, in the scientific literature, the problems of restructuring the dual system are being formed in response to the trends of academization, gender segmentation of the labor market and problems arising in connection with the qualifications of underachievers ^{[8, 9, 10, 11]}. Researchers also note concern about the slow adaptive capabilities of the dual system in the context of the rapidly changing needs of the knowledge economy and the digitalization of labor ^[11]. The key problems of the English training system relate, according to national researchers, to the subordinate status of vocational training, low investment by employers and the lack of a nationally coordinated education and training system ^[12].

In general, the European models of vocational education in the widely used Greinert classification ^[13] are divided into three types of training: the model of a liberal market economy; a bureaucratic, state-regulated model; a dual corporate model. A typical example of a liberal market economy is the United Kingdom, where the ratio between supply and demand for training is regulated by the market with minimal state control and a low level of participation of firms. France can be described as a bureaucratic model regulated by the state. State bodies determine the demand for training, and vocational education largely follows the logic of the general education system funded from the budget. The dual corporatist model, of which Germany is an example, has a dual structure, including both market and bureaucratic regulation. Companies are the main place for education, but young people also attend vocational schools according to the rules of the general education system. Any option has both advantages and limitations, but a dual corporatist or dual model of personnel training is recognized as optimal on a global scale, the practice of which also takes place in the Russian system.

The Chinese scientific discourse, as well as the European one, touches on the issues of equality, but in a completely different tone: everyone should have an equal right to develop their talents in order to apply them for the prosperity of China ^[14]. Education reforms are aimed at improving the quality and prestige of vocational education as the main supplier of personnel for production.   In particular, the level of higher professional education has been introduced. However, according to Chinese researchers, the authority of academic education is still incomparably higher, while vocational education is perceived as handicraft, which contradicts the ideological line and is considered a relic ^[15]. A significant status gap in diploma levels is also noted in domestic studies, in particular, V. Blinov and L. Kurteeva believe that the very name "average" carries a negative semantic connotation – as something intermediate, "not higher" ^{[16, p. 250]}.

As already noted, the Russian system of secondary vocational education has undergone a number of serious transformations since the collapse of the USSR. Not all solutions were useful for her, but most of them had a common vector and a tangible Western orientation. The transition of educational organizations to regional management became a key aspect in the reform of vocational education in the post-Soviet period. The consequences of this decision affected not only the financing scheme, but also the distribution of administrative powers, as a result of which, in fact, a network of local systems with relative autonomy from the center was created. The federal regulator has retained regulatory and legal functions, the definition of priorities for development and modernization, but the new financing scheme has significantly limited the levers of management. One of the mechanisms for preserving the federal line of interaction with the SPO system has become state targeted programs and national projects that allow targeted funding for the modernization and development of priority zones.

The instruments of modernization of the vocational education system at the federal level are state projects and targeted programs. For the first time, the project approach was applied in 2005, when the Priority National Project "Education" for 2005-2010 was developed and approved. The further development of education was regulated by federal target programs (2011 – 2015, 2016 – 2020). Currently, the main mechanism determining the priority tasks of the development of vocational education is the Federal project Young Professionals (Improving the competitiveness of vocational Education) 2019 – 2024, which is part of the National Project "Education". The dynamics of the stated tasks (Table 1) allows us to speak about the consistent nature of modernization, the adequacy of assessments and the correspondence of the logic of the development of SPO to national priorities. At the same time, it is worth noting the fact of early termination of projects, numerous amendments, a low level of financial support for the tasks^[1]. According to experts, national projects seem to follow the experience of building educational policy in developed European countries, in particular, focusing on the goals of the German education system in the period 2004-2010 ^[17].

The selective nature of the inclusion of colleges in federal programs and the priority of some areas of production over others determined the gap in the level of equipment of the material and technical base, the development of partnership practices and the prestige of the diploma of SPO institutions. From the point of view of the prevailing forms of interaction with employers, 3 groups of secondary vocational education institutions are conditionally distinguished ^[18]. The first is the top of a high-tech cluster and includes about 250-300 colleges working in close partnership with industrial giants (Gazprom, Rosneft, LUKOIL, Surgutneftegaz, Rosatom, etc.). Employers are involved in the college management process, participate in the formation of personnel requests and educational programs, and invest at least half of the total budget in the development of the organization's material base. The second group (1000-1200 organizations) is represented by institutions that have stable ties with enterprises, including practical training, various forms of targeted training, but direct financial investments do not exceed 20% of the total income structure of the organization. The third group (about 2000 colleges) trains personnel for social enterprises and small businesses. Partnership with enterprises is carried out in a dotted way and is of an immaterial nature, putting social colleges in the least advantageous position, which in the foreseeable future has understandable negative consequences. 

In the current educational model, the SPO performs two main tasks: an alternative strategy for obtaining secondary general education and vocational training within the chosen specialty. However, the two trajectories of obtaining secondary general education are not brought to a common denominator. The Unified State Exam, which provides equal competitive access to higher education, is taken only by high school graduates, while the choice of the trajectory "Grade 9-SPO-VO" is a white zone for assessing the level of applicants. The reasons for this contradiction lie in the conditions of competition with school graduates that are obviously not win-win for graduates of vocational schools, but in the long term, this step is necessary to ensure equality of opportunities, universality of requirements and transparency of trajectories. The transition from a two-exam model to a single exam model in 2009 had a significant social effect caused by the emergence of new educational trajectories as ways to bypass the Unified State Exam.

Most of the latest work on the transformation of PDF relates to the digitalization segment and distance learning, which was updated during the Covid-19 pandemic ^[19]. The "natural experiment" of coronavirus restrictions revealed a number of problematic aspects of the vocational education system: from the lack of material and technical base to the rigidity of stakeholders, including teachers, students and administrators.

Another group of works focuses on the restructuring of the secondary vocational education system. A new stage associated with the introduction of professionalism is at the initial stage of scientific understanding. According to the authors' idea, the program is based on the introduction of three initiatives: the integration of colleges and enterprises of the real sector of the economy through the creation of educational and production clusters; reducing the duration of training while increasing its intensity (according to the plans, the duration of training in a working specialty will be two years, technological - three); recreating the state system of training teachers for vocational education^[2]. The main advantage of professionalism is the acceleration of the pace of personnel training and the applied nature of training while reducing financial costs per specialist. At the same time, the implementation of the project has significant barriers, the main one of which is not unreasonably considered personnel. It is assumed that its leveling is possible through the introduction of the Master of industrial training (Master 2.0) training model, which is revealed through new scientific directions in the fields of neuroeducation, distance learning engineering, Lean-Agile engineering thinking, engineering pedagogy and cognitive science of vocational training ^{[20, 21, 22]}. In this context, it is assumed that the near and medium-term prospects for the development of vocational education in Russia are associated with a reduction in training time, a reduction in costs and expenses for vocational education, improvement of the content of education and an increase in the level of qualification of teaching staff ^[16].

Thus, the post-Soviet system of secondary vocational education develops mainly in the logic of European educational systems, focusing on Western standards and mechanisms. Through a retrospective analysis and analysis of international practice, we have shown that socio-political realities significantly affect the life of training institutions, and therefore changes in the political conjuncture will quite predictably lead to a new round of transformations of the PDF in the current situation. Scenarios of further changes may have different directions, including a conservative reversal, adaptation to new conditions within the current trajectory and the development of an alternative scenario. Among the possible dominants determining the fate of the PDF, we will focus special attention on the following. Firstly, orientation to national and cultural identity and self-determination, which in relation to the practice of personnel training means the development of their own quality systems and criteria for its evaluation. Secondly, the strengthening of the trend of centralization, due to the need for a mechanism for implementing management decisions. Thirdly, sectoral reorientation to meet the needs of the economy, changing the proportions of the personnel request and optimizing educational mechanisms. In the next part of the article, we will propose methodological tools that allow us to clarify and correct our theoretical hypotheses through working with a key stakeholder in the modernization of the PDF – the personnel training system.

Methodology and logic of the studyThe architecture of the vocational education system has the most understandable outlines within the framework of the institutional approach.

Considering the PDF as an institution in the system of reproduction and transfer of knowledge, we focus on the aspects of its contact with other institutions and their mutual influence. In addition, we rely on the Burdievist methodology, namely, we consider vocational education as a social space of conflict of interests, an arena in which participants compete for resources and types of capital that are effective in this field. Locally, Bazil Bernstein proposed a similar concept for education, considering the acquisition of information capital through a long process of pedagogical socialization. This resource can exist in embodied (habitus – in Bourdieu's terminology, language code – in Bernstein's terminology), institutional (educational qualification) and objective form (books, online resources). Bernstein (2001, 1990) identified three main fields of pedagogical reception, namely the field of production (universities, academic structures), recontextualization (state bodies regulating education) and reproduction (primary, secondary and higher school). At the same time, the boundaries isolating these fields are relatively strong, which is clearly noticeable when trying to modernize.

Thus, during operationalization, we had to act simultaneously in two planes: to take into account the institutional subordination along the line of "state - SPO" and the resistance of participants in the educational process, based on their potential resource acquisitions and losses in the process of transformation. This determined the choice of organizations of the personnel training system for PDF as the main stakeholder, whose share is assigned to the training of those specialists (including masters 2.0) who will have to implement new mechanisms in life. Unlike other stakeholders (the state, employers, administrators and teachers of vocational schools, applicants and their parents), university teachers working in the direction of 44.00.00 Education and pedagogical sciences, in our opinion, are able to give a multilateral assessment of the situation, since they have information of both theoretical and applied nature. 

In order to solve the tasks set in the fall of 2023, an informal survey of teachers and heads of educational organizations of the SPO was implemented by the method of in-depth online interview. A total of 28 respondents took part in the study, 14 of them hold managerial positions and 14 are teachers. The selection of respondents was implemented on the basis of the methodological rules adopted in the methodology of applied qualitative sociological research: the representation of different types of respondents (from different specialized areas of SPO, territorial dispersion on the territory of Russia) and the principle of saturation (density) of information.

Conclusions and results of the studyThe first set of questions addressed to the pedagogical community concerned the effectiveness of the work of educational organizations in general, the implementation of a range of socially and economically important functions.

According to the respondents, the situation when the labor market and educational organizations of vocational schools exist separately from each other has now been partially overcome. Such a thesis is due, firstly, to the supervision of a part of the college by "industrial flagships", and secondly, to the appearance of a range of training programs as close as possible to the production reality. At the same time, the interviewed administrative workers indicated the presence of a number of training areas, specialties, mainly from the category of creative industries," which are developing in a different logic. "In our SPA, as in other similar, yes, almost all, we train hairdressers. Who will be the boss of a large industrial enterprise in this direction? Is the barber shop around the corner? And the degree of demand is huge. How exactly do they meet our production requirements? They correspond, once they go, study, work,"- the expert's quote.Another point of view of the effectiveness of personnel training for vocational education comes down to the impossibility of fully linking vocational education programs to the needs of the economy.

"We still give education, training, basic, good. The market situation is constantly changing. Who, which one is needed? Constant changes.... But, then it is necessary to revive the Federal Law of the masses, teach them a little bit and let them go to work, or we still need to think strategically." The point of view of the teacher, in this case, is also reduced to an important heuristic function of a wide, basic training, which allows in the future to master new directions in a short time.The analysis of a group of questions aimed at identifying the main problems of vocational education shows that the interviewed teaching staff and teachers identify two main groups of problems and one additional one.

Among the first set of problematic points, they include inefficient management of the system. "It seems that they (managers) themselves do not know which way to run. They ask us if we have such events (fashionable innovative sessions and courses), we think, we do, we offer, we read... and it's unclear."Respondents note that a significant problem point is the constant reform of the PDF system, attempts to calculate the effectiveness by universal methods for all, without taking into account regional, national, and industry specifics.

The next significant problem is the presence of a serious shortage of teachers.

According to the respondents, young teachers do not see significant motivational components for themselves. Often, the reasons for employment in vocational education are not a pedagogical vocation, but the inability to find a job in more promising industries. "The work of a teacher in colleges is very specific, many people think that it is a shortened working day, a long vacation, it is not so difficult at the university, etc., in fact, it is the most difficult work, it is responsible work, with different contingent, different characteristics. Young people come, look and leave."Administrative staff, in turn, noted that a significant factor is the work with young teachers in the field, at the level of heads of educational organizations.

It is the direct managers who should establish a system of mentoring, socio-psychological support and financial incentives.As an additional problem, which the respondents also paid attention to, one can single out the "low prestige of the SPO diploma".

According to the respondents, at the level of public consciousness, the diploma of SPO is a kind of intermediate option, at best, a minimal guarantor of further development. Respondents also note that despite the increase in the number of applicants who want to get an education in colleges, the diploma of SPO is not prestigious. A separate topic is obtaining a working qualification. The interviewed teachers noted that socio-economic and political transformations undoubtedly make the situation with the training of qualified workers even more relevant. Respondents note that the state and all its institutions should undoubtedly develop and implement new mechanisms for such training.It is significant that the interviewed representatives of the PDF massively did not focus on the weakness of the material and technical base.

The lack of consumables was noted only among educational organizations that train specialists working in the creative industry.

One of the objectives of the survey was the task of the attitude of the pedagogical community to the Professionalism project and the identification of its role in the modernization of personnel training that meets the real needs of the economy.Representatives of SPO educational organizations, in general, positively perceive the very concept of the project.

"For the first time in many years, we see the real restructuring of the system, the direction in the right direction. But, this is in theory, practice is more difficult." It turns out that conceptually, the reduction of the terms of professional training and close connection with production are perceived positively by respondents, however, practical implementation has more problematic points. According to the representatives of the SPO, the problems of mass implementation of the Professionalism program are: reduction of the content component of programs, increase in the burden on teachers and software masters, reduction in the number of teaching staff.A separate problem is the social well-being of teachers in the process of transition to Professionalism.

Undoubtedly, such a radical transformation of the system will cause changes in the structure of socio-professional groups functioning in the SPO system. This moment requires more in-depth, specialized study at the level of interdisciplinary research.

 ConclusionThe state has ceased to play the role of a monopoly customer and employer of the personnel training system, but has retained a "controlling stake", which determines the interest of management structures in the PDF, including as a translator of national values and dominant views.

Assessing possible modernization scenarios in the system of secondary vocational education, it is hardly possible to use unambiguous judgments about them as obviously true or incorrect. Applying the old terms to denote the new realities, we must take into account their conditional continuity, since the modern PDF system operates in a completely different institutional space, has different socio-political contexts and the formation of its stakeholders took place in different conditions from the Soviet ones.

At the same time, all state and social institutions are tasked with achieving technological sovereignty of the country. Educational organizations of the SPO, in this case, act as the main reference points in achieving complex and ambitious tasks of the state and society.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis of the problem, it can be said that a possible scenario for the further development of educational organizations of SPO will be the adjustment of the existing course due to internal and external transformations of the system.

  On the one hand, we are facing new political and economic challenges that require training of employees to ensure social and economic stability, on the other hand, the Professionalism project can act as a definite solution to the operational and medium–term tasks set for the secondary vocational education system. 

^[1] Report on the interim results of the expert-analytical event "Monitoring the implementation of the activities of the national project "Education" necessary to fulfill the tasks set in the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 204 dated May 7, 2018 "On National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024" https://ach.gov.ru/upload/iblock/9f3/9f381090ef30beaa53a5ff14018ab4aa.pdf

^[2] The "Professionalitet" project will help to introduce new programs, launch educational and production clusters and recreate the state system of training pedkadrov for SPO. The official website of the Ministry of Education of Russia. https://edu.gov.ru/press/4237/proekt-professionalitet-pomozhet-vnedrit-novye-programmy-zapustit-obrazovatelno-proizvodstvennye-klastery-i-vossozdat-gossistemu-podgotovki-pedkadrov-dlya-spo/?ysclid=l6q09ka81x963703768