Abstract: The subject of the presented work is the assessment of the US national intelligence regarding the events in the period after the August 1991 crisis in the USSR and the prospects for its development within the framework of the model of the new Union Treaty against the background of centrifugal trends. The key theses included in the approved version of the report of the US intelligence community are characterized as the object of the work. The main attention is paid to the issue of inter-republican relations inside and outside the USSR during the search for consensus when concluding a confederate treaty. The methodology of the work consists of the basic principles of scientific cognition (historicism and objectivity) and special historical research methods: descriptive, comparative, historical-systemic, statistical and problem-chronological. The novelty of the research is determined by the approach in which the causal links between the analytical efforts of the CIA and their true goals are searched, as well as historical sources, many of which are involved in scientific circulation for the first time. The article emphasizes that, according to the CIA's erroneous assessment, the scenario of "confederation" as a result of the collapse of the USSR was less likely due to the unwillingness of many ex-Soviet republics to cede part of their political sovereignty and power to the government of the confederation. It turns out that, according to American analysts, Ukraine was a key player in the domestic political arena outside the RSFSR, which had a huge nuclear potential on its territory. This, in turn, predetermined the fate of this country for decades to come and laid the foundation for the emergence of interstate contradictions with Russia. It is noted that the intelligence community of the United States proposed, in cooperation with other Western countries, to influence the development of events in the territory of the former USSR either according to the scenario of "confederation" or according to the scenario of "free association" with the transfer of issues on defense and arms control to the Russian government.

Abstract: Based on the revealed declassified documents, the paper examines previously unknown sources about the attempts of the American government to support various programs of dissent, freedom of speech and mass media in the USSR and countries where the pro-Soviet regime was supported. The subject of the study is the content of foreign intelligence published and declassified documents describing specific US measures to implement covert actions in Afghanistan in order to counteract the influence and strengthen the position of the USSR, as well as support centrifugal trends in the Soviet Union through the organization and financing of programs to support dissent, the development of radio broadcasting, increasing radio coverage areas, assistance in the publication of Samizdat literature, etc. The object of the work is the documentary correspondence of the US President and key figures of the American establishment on the use of resources for the implementation and promotion of anti-Soviet activities. The article reveals previously unknown details of the preparation of options and the implementation of approved programs of covert actions to discredit the Soviet regime as part of the military campaign in Afghanistan, as well as inside the USSR.
The sources allow us to highlight the activities of the US Special Coordinating Committee for the preparation of this strategy. The authors draw attention to the complexity of solving financial issues in the American administration, as well as the size of US financial injections to support destructive forces in the Soviet Union. Such evidence from very authoritative sources significantly expands the source base in the scientific coverage of the facts of the implementation of subversive activities of the United States against the USSR in the 1970s and 1980s.

Abstract: The object of this research is the processes that took place in the COMECON member-states due instability of the financial sector. The subject of this research is the impact of the economic factor upon the evolution of bipolar system of international relations and sociopolitical sustainability of the Soviet Union during the 1979 – 1983. The article provides a scientific assessment of extent of awareness of the US intelligence on the financial solvency of the COMECON member-states, their ability to meet repayment schedules for both interest and debts, and the consequences of possible default of any of the countries during the financial crisis. The authors set the task to analyze the target points of foreign analytics regarding the “dependency” of Western European enterprises on their Eastern business partners, as well as clarify the extent to which a significant decline in trade between the East and the West affected the Soviet and Western European economy. The use of unpublished foreign and domestic archival documents, as well as foreign periodicals define the novelty of this research. This article is first to disclose the information on how the United States turned the severe financial problems of Eastern European countries for the purpose of political pressure on such issues as Afghanistan, crisis in Poland, and construction of the Soviet gas pipeline. Leaning on the introduced into the scientific discourse CIA documents, assessment is given to the effectiveness of trade and economic policy of the United States and its Western European allies in relation to Eastern Europe. The article also analyses the support of centrifugal tendencies in the economy of the Eastern European countries of the Soviet bloc.