New strategic diplomatic relations between China and Russia: a model for Great Powers

Lyu Yan' Postgraduate student, Department of theory and history of international relations, Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6, Moscow, 117198, Russia 1019492339@qq.com

Russian-Chinese relations have reached an advanced stage of multilateral partnership and strategic cooperation based on consideration of each other's interests. Since the establishment of the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership, diplomatic response has been the main focus of cooperation between the two sides. It manifests itself in two main areas: joint efforts to maintain favorable conditions for neighborhood and international security and to build a new international political and economic order; and support each other's efforts to preserve national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Strategic partnership relations with China are one of the most important priorities of Russia's foreign policy. In recent years, Russian-Chinese relations have been characterized by increased dynamics of development, a significant increase in the level of mutual trust and mutual support, and an active expansion of cooperation in key areas. The development of the PRC, which is increasing its economic and military power and political influence, is becoming an increasingly significant factor in both regional and global development.

The purpose of this article is to identify the specifics of the strategic partnership between Russia and China in the diplomatic sphere. The author highlights the stages of the development of relations between China and Russia based on documents signed by the leaders of China and Russia in the period from 1996 to 2025.

The issues raised in the article are partially reflected in the works of Russian and Chinese scientists K.P. Kurylev ^[1], E.N. Grachikov ^[2], S.A. Karaganov ^[3], E.M. Primakov ^[4], A.A. Kireeva ^[5], A.V. Vinogradov ^[6],[7], A.D. Voskresensky ^[8], Qin Yaqing ^[9], Pan Dapeng ^[10], Zuo Fenggong ^[11], Feng Shaolei ^[12]. Among these works, I would like to highlight Qin Yaqing's monograph "Relations and Process: Cultural Foundations of Chinese Theory of International Relations" ^[9], which describes in detail China's position on the problem of constructing the identity of the international system, Chinese diplomatic theories, as well as the development and innovations of Chinese diplomatic practice and a description of China's diplomatic history and foreign policy in the context of time.

Of particular note are the works of E.N. Grachikov "China's Partnership Strategy: Practice and its Conceptualization (1993-2018)" ^[13], "China's Foreign Policy: strategies in the context of identity and global perspective" ^[14], "China's National Interests: Connotations, hierarchy, balancing" ^[15]. These works systematically examine the theory of diplomatic strategy of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping, their content, as well as modern forms of Chinese diplomacy.

The methodological foundation of the research is an interdisciplinary approach based on the basic principles and methods of structural realism (neorealism). The appeal to this scientific school allows us to analyze the tools of Russian-Chinese diplomatic cooperation. The study uses historical-comparative, historical-typological, and problem-chronological methods, which allowed the author to analyze the formation and development of Chinese diplomacy in the context of expanding strategic partnership with Russia. Turning to Qin Yaqing's relational theory of world politics allowed us to consider the phenomenon of strategic partnership as a political institution that supports a high level of interstate interaction.

The first decade: the initial formation of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership (1996-2006)

The key points of this period are: the establishment of strategic cooperation and the initial formation of its framework, joint resistance to unilateral US policy, the development of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation in the process of deep hardening, as well as the transition of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation from the run-in stage to a period of stable and pragmatic development.

The "Joint Statement of China and Russia", published by the two countries in April 1996, basically defined three levels of strategic cooperation between China and Russia. As for the bilateral strategic cooperation, both sides will resolve the long-standing border issue as soon as possible, confirm their support for each other's efforts to protect sovereignty and territorial integrity, support mutual cooperation between large and medium-sized enterprises with a good reputation and strong economic power of the two countries, as well as "promote mutual development on an equal, mutually beneficial basis.". further strengthening of military-technical cooperation on the basis of the United Nations and taking into account the international commitments undertaken by the two countries." Regarding strategic cooperation at the global level, both sides called for the creation of a new international political and economic order based on the five principles of peaceful coexistence, and will "further strengthen cooperation in areas where positions are similar or consistent, and seek ways to understand each other in areas where positions differ." With regard to strategic cooperation at the regional level, the parties stressed the need to proceed from the diverse realities of the Asia-Pacific region, follow the principles of consensus and gradual progress, and promote bilateral and regional dialogue on security issues in various forms, levels and channels ^[16].

The China-Russia Treaty on Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, signed on July 16, 2001, established the basic principles for the development of bilateral relations, namely, "non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries." The countries are determined to "preserve friendship for generations and never to be at enmity." The Agreement is a conceptual framework for the current and long-term development of Sino-Russian relations, provides a guarantee for the further sustainable development of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation and partnership based on equality and trust, and is also a policy document defining the long-term development of long-term strategic cooperation between China and Russia. Both sides are determined to adhere to the principles and spirit of the China-Russia Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation Treaty, continue to strengthen good-neighborliness and friendship, expand mutually beneficial cooperation, strengthen strategic coordination, and constantly promote bilateral relations for the better in order to bring great benefits to the peoples of both countries^[17].

From March 21 to March 22, 2006, the two heads of state held official talks in Beijing and jointly attended the opening ceremony of the "Year of Russia" and the Sino-Russian Economic and Business Summit. The two Heads of state comprehensively reviewed the development of Sino-Russian relations of strategic cooperation and partnership, equality and trust over the past decade and expressed satisfaction with the positive progress in cooperation between the two countries in various fields. The parties believe that political mutual trust between China and Russia is constantly strengthening, cooperation is yielding fruitful results, cooperation mechanisms in various fields are working effectively, mutual understanding and friendship between the peoples of the two countries are deepening, and bilateral relations have reached an unprecedented high level ^[18].

Table 1. Key milestones of diplomatic cooperation between Russia and China from 1996 to 2006

Source: compiled by the author

The Second decade: the rapid development of the strategic partnership between China and Russia (2006-2016)

In 2007, the Sino-Russian strategic cooperation and partnership entered its second decade and entered a new stage of development. High-level exchanges between the two countries have become more frequent: only Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin have met five times. The Prime Ministers, speakers and foreign ministers of the two countries also held several meetings, as a result of which the political mutual trust between the two sides was further strengthened and deepened. At the "Year of China" event in Russia, China and Russia carried out comprehensive exchanges with rich content and diverse forms in various fields such as politics, economics and culture, which further strengthened and expanded strategic partnership and cooperation ^[19].

On June 16, 2011, the two countries signed a joint statement dedicated to the 10th anniversary of the Treaty on Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between China and Russia. Over the past 10 years, Sino-Russian relations have developed rapidly and comprehensively, and cooperation in all fields has reached an unprecedented high level. The second decade after the signing of the treaty has opened up new opportunities for the further development of Sino-Russian relations. Both sides will continue to follow the principles and spirit laid down in the agreement and will work to develop a comprehensive strategic partnership and cooperation based on equality, trust, mutual support, common prosperity and eternal friendship, as well as achieve significant success at a high level: in the fields of education, trade, culture, military industry and other areas. ^[20].

On May 20, 2014, the two heads of state met in Shanghai and issued the "China-Russia Joint Statement on a New Stage of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and Coordination," announcing that relations between the two countries had entered a new stage. Thanks to the joint and determined efforts of both sides, Sino-Russian relations have reached a new stage. They have been upgraded to a new stage of comprehensive strategic cooperation and partnership ^[21]. On June 25, 2016, the two heads of state held talks in Beijing. Both sides stated that this year marks the 20th anniversary of the declaration by both sides on the development of an equal and trust-based strategic partnership in the 21st century, as well as the fifteenth anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation. The model of Russian-Chinese relations established by the treaty - strategic partnership and cooperation based on equality and trust - has become truly comprehensive over the past 15 years and is still relevant today.

Table 2. Key milestones of diplomatic cooperation between Russia and China from 2006 to 2016

Source: compiled by the author.

The Third decade: the golden period of comprehensive strategic partnership and coordination between China and Russia (2016-present)

In 2017, the two heads of state held five official meetings. It was a year in which the comprehensive strategic partnership and cooperation between China and Russia continued to operate at a high level, and both countries achieved fruitful results in practical cooperation. The parties carried out close cooperation in various forms, signed a number of important documents and exchanged views on major international and regional issues, laying the foundation for bilateral relations and defining the directions for their development. A joint statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation on the Korean Peninsula further coordinated the positions of the two countries in international and regional affairs, stressing that no matter how the international situation changes, both countries will adhere to good-faith Russian-Chinese relations. The agreement is on good-neighborliness and cooperation, and both countries consider each other as priority diplomatic partners.

2019 marked the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. The two heads of State signed the "Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on the development of comprehensive strategic Partnership and coordination in a new Era." The statement emphasizes that the two heads of state should play a strategic leadership role and consider political cooperation, security cooperation, cultural exchanges and international cooperation as key areas of comprehensive strategic partnership and coordination between China and Russia ^[22]. On February 4, 2022, the two heads of state signed the "Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on International Relations and Global Sustainable Development in a New Era" and attended the opening ceremony of the 24th Winter Olympic Games. On March 21, 2023, the "Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening Comprehensive Strategic interactions and partnerships in a new era", which systematically outlines the key points of comprehensive deepening of strategic cooperation at the bilateral and multilateral levels, global and regional levels. It clarifies the goals and directions for the sustainable and rapid development of Sino-Russian relations.

On May 16-17, 2024, the two heads of state jointly signed and published the "Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation and Partnership in a New Era on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Founding of the People's Republic of China." Establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The parties stressed that the development of comprehensive strategic partnership and coordination in the new era between China and Russia meets the fundamental interests of the two countries and their peoples, and that Sino-Russian relations have a powerful internal driving force and independent value. China and Russia will make full use of the potential of bilateral relations, promote an equitable and orderly multipolar world and democratize international relations, and join forces to build a just and reasonable multipolar world.

Table 3. Key milestones of diplomatic cooperation between Russia and China from 2016 to the present

Source: compiled by the author.

Relations between Russia and China currently determine the economic, political and business aspects of the two countries, as well as the entire Eurasian continent. Russian-Chinese cooperation has no analogues in world practice. Cooperation is implemented according to the model of "relations of great powers of a new type", which meets all modern international realities ^[23].

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022, the global economic situation has been in a state of uncertainty. The sanctions imposed by the United States, Europe and other countries have had a serious impact on the development of both the Russian and global economies. Stable relations between China and Russia are especially important at this time. China and Russia have abandoned the traditional Western political relations of great powers and opted for cooperation to overcome crises and challenges. China and Russia have built a new model of mutually beneficial cooperation, which is comprehensive, in-depth and multidisciplinary, and has strengthened the internal driving force of Sino-Russian relations. Russia is a large country rich in resources, and China is a large manufacturing country. China and Russia have strong economic complementarity. China has been Russia's largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Trade turnover between Russia and China (billions of US dollars)

Source: ^[24].

According to Chinese customs statistics, the volume of trade between China and Russia in 2018 reached $108.779 billion, which is 26% more than in the previous year. From 2018 to 2020, the volume of trade between China and Russia exceeded $100 billion for three consecutive years. In 2021, the volume of trade between China and Russia reached $146.887 billion. In 2022, trade and economic cooperation between China and Russia developed rapidly against the background of economic and financial sanctions imposed against Russia with the countries of Europe and America. The trade volume reached $190.271 billion, an increase of 29.3% year-on-year. In 2023, the volume of bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record high of $240.11 billion, exceeding the target of $200 billion set by the two heads of state. In 2024, the volume of trade between China and Russia reached a record high, reaching $244.8195 billion, an annual increase of 1.9%, setting a record high ^[24]. The increasingly close economic and trade relations between China and Russia have laid a solid foundation for cooperation between the two countries.

Factors of development of strategic partnership

Based on the analysis of the development of bilateral relations between Russia and China in the historical perspective, it is advisable to identify key external and internal factors that determine the depth and directions of interaction, as well as lead to the strengthening of strategic partnership. Among the internal factors, political stability, economic complementarity and technological cooperation should be highlighted, which together form a solid foundation for their cooperation. Among the external factors, it is worth noting, first of all, the challenges that Russia and China are forced to face together. Thus, the geopolitical confrontation with the West, sanctions pressure and the need for military cooperation strengthen interdependence and strengthen the course of rapprochement between the two powers.

Political stability plays a key role in the development of the Russian-Chinese partnership. The relationship between the leaders of the two countries, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, is based on trust and a convergence of views on governance and international relations. Both leaders oppose "color revolutions" and support the idea of a strong sovereign state free from external interference. This commonality of approaches creates favorable conditions for the development of cooperation in the long term.

Economic complementarity between Russia and China is also an important factor. Russia is the main supplier of energy resources, reducing China's dependence on unstable markets in the Middle East. At the same time, China is filling the niches vacated by Western companies in the Russian market by supplying cars, electronics, and industrial equipment. The growth of settlement volumes in national currencies – yuan and rubles – helps to reduce dependence on the dollar and strengthen the financial sovereignty of the two countries.

Scientific and technological cooperation between Russia and China is also gaining momentum. China is helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions by supplying critical technology and equipment. The mutual exchange of advanced developments takes place in such areas as energy, microelectronics and military technologies. Russia, with its strong position in nuclear energy and armaments, shares its achievements with China, while China provides access to its achievements in the field of digital technologies, electronics manufacturing and logistics.

The development of the strategic partnership between Russia and China is largely determined by the geopolitical confrontation with the West. A new bipolarity is taking shape, in which the United States and its allies confront China and Russia, dividing the world into two opposing camps. This process is accompanied by a policy of economic "decoupling," in which the West severs economic and technological ties with China and Russia, creating artificial barriers to trade, investment, and scientific and technological exchange.

The sanctions war also plays a significant role in the dynamics of Russian-Chinese relations. After 2014, Russia faced widespread sanctions from the United States and Europe, which intensified after the start of a special military operation in 2022. China, in turn, is experiencing similar pressure from the United States, which is imposing trade barriers and restricting Chinese companies' access to Western technologies. Despite caution, China is helping Russia circumvent sanctions restrictions by providing supplies of industrial products and technologies and partially compensating for the loss of Western markets.

Military-strategic cooperation between the two countries is intensifying amid pressure from NATO and US military alliances in Asia. Russia and China are conducting joint military exercises, air patrols in the East China and Japan Seas, as well as joint naval maneuvers. Beijing supports Moscow's position on issues of critical importance to Russia, such as the need for a special military operation caused by the progressive expansion of NATO and the oppression of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine. Russia, in turn, regards Taiwan as an inalienable territory of China and supports its policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.

Diplomatic cooperation between Russia and China is also evident in the international arena. At the UN, both countries coordinate their actions by blocking resolutions directed against their interests. They actively promote alternative economic and political institutions such as the BRICS and the SCO, seeking to create a multipolar system of international relations independent of Western influence. At the same time, China is trying to balance support for Russia and maintaining beneficial economic ties with the West, avoiding open involvement in the conflict and direct military assistance to Moscow.

Thus, the smooth development of Sino-Russian relations has its own logic. China and Russia have abandoned the traditional Western political relations of great powers and decided to cooperate to overcome crises and problems. China and Russia have built a new model of mutually beneficial cooperation, which is comprehensive, in-depth and multidisciplinary, and has strengthened the internal driving force of Sino-Russian relations. In the future, the parties will continue to optimize the structure of cooperation between the two countries and consolidate the positive dynamics of cooperation in traditional areas such as economy and trade. Both sides should also strengthen communication and cooperation on international multilateral platforms such as the United Nations, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as in regional affairs, demonstrate international responsibility and promote the creation of a fair and reasonable global governance system in order to bring greater benefits to the peoples of the two countries and contribute to stability and global security. At the same time, a number of negative prospects should be highlighted. First, Russia and China are facing geopolitical challenges related to increased competition with the West and increased sanctions pressure. Secondly, economic imbalances, including Russia's dependence on the Chinese market and technology, can lead to uneven development of bilateral relations. Thirdly, despite the common strategic course, hidden contradictions remain between the countries, for example, in matters of influence in Central Asia or energy cooperation. Overall, Russian-Chinese relations continue to be dynamic, with strong potential for further growth. However, the success of their long-term development will depend on the parties' ability to adapt to changes in the international environment, balance interests and avoid asymmetry in the partnership.