Appeal to the future in mass communication

Gavrish Alesya Dmitrievna ORCID: 0000-0002-4791-5852 PhD in Philology Senior Lecturer, Department of Linguistics and Intercultural Communication, Volgograd Institute of Management – branch of RANEPA 400078, Russia, Volgogradskaya oblast', g. Volgograd, ul. Gertsena, 10, aud. 407 prostozachem@mail.ru Other publications by this author     Gulyaeva Evgeniya Vyacheslavovna ORCID: 0000-0003-1605-8576 PhD in Philology Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Linguistics and Intercultural Communication, Volgograd Institute of Management – branch of RANEPA 400078, Russia, Volgograd region, Volgograd, Herzen str., 10, room 407 guevgenia@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

Kompaneeva Liudmila Gennadievna ORCID: 0000-0001-8328-013X PhD in Pedagogy Associate Professor, Department of Linguistics and Intercultural Communication, Volgograd Institute of Management – branch of RANEPA 400078, Russia, Volgograd region, Volgograd, Herzen str., 10, room 407 kompaneyeva@mail.ru Other publications by this author

Introduction

The future, as not yet arrived, but an expected moment in time, has always aroused a person's keen interest and desire to anticipate upcoming events. One of the most common philosophical points of view is the understanding of the future as a person's ability to anticipate and expect, present in the present tense only in the mind or soul of a person ^[1]. Such definitions are ultimately based on a rational-materialistic perception. The complexity of understanding the future has given rise to the existence of mutually exclusive opinions that the future is either predetermined (determinism) ^{[2, pp. 631-632]}, or undefined, because people themselves are able to create it (indeterminism) ^[3]. The American philosopher A. Grunbaum states the existence of certain physical conditions in the real world by which we can predict the future ^[4]. The objectivity of the process of the passage of time is inseparable from the anthropocentric living of time, reflexive "penetration" into it.  Our individual goal-setting is inevitably, due to many factors, related to time, inextricably linked to it. Perhaps there is no such goal-setting that can be separated from time: "to what kind of beginning and to what kind of cause does the ascent occur in this case, whether it has the character of matter, or the target cause, or the driving cause, it must be considered with special attention" ^{[5, p. 205]}.

It should be noted that the purpose of our study can be formulated as an attempt to demonstrate the existence of a connection between arrays of information, ways of accessing them and the presence of an actualizing time factor in this process. We believe that there are ways to access arrays of information that have a number of specific features that make it possible to distinguish them into a special group. Formally, these methods can be defined as partially using information as an argumentation base that does not directly relate to either the past or the present. It is also necessary to recognize that the causality of the interactions generated by them is at least biased towards the future to such an extent that they lack some characteristic signs of referring to information discursively related to the present and the past. Such methods of accessing arrays of information include intuition (intuitive premonition), prophecy, prediction, forecasting, anticipation, formulation of assumptions and assumptions, and hypothesis building. Let's consider these phenomena in more detail.

Overview of the basic concepts

Intuition is usually understood as the mental process of searching for direct knowledge among evidence that is not logically related (or insufficient to obtain a logical conclusion), leading to direct discretion and finding the truth ^{[6, pp. 157, 180]}. A correlating psychological phenomenon is the so–called insight - insight, an unexpected instantaneous awareness of the essence of the problem and finding ways to solve it ^{[6, p. 180]}. The researchers note that the ability of intuitive feeling is associated not only with the acquisition of specific experiences, but also with the overall level of personality development. The presence of intuition is not considered as a pathological property of the psyche, intellectual activity, it is a natural human ability to come to conclusions based on information that is insufficient or incomplete to solve the problem ^{[7, p. 262]}. The assumption is "a generalizing name for an axiom, postulate, theorem and hypothesis" ^[8]. It is understood as a position temporarily accepted as possibly true until the truth is established ^{[9, p. 25]}. An assumption is a component of a theory that cannot be verified empirically ^[10]. An assumption in the context of communication theory can be considered as an assumption about the correctness of something ^[11]. A hypothesis is a reasonable assumption put forward in order to clarify the properties and causes of the phenomena under study, or a probabilistic assumption about the cause of any phenomena ^{[9, p. 7]}. A forecast can be understood as a scientifically based judgment about the possible conditions of an object in the future ^[12]. Scientific foresight is a reflection by consciousness of future events and situations determined by knowledge of physical and social laws, as well as the principles of the development of thinking ^{[13, p. 124]}. Thus, it can be noted that the above concepts have a scientific basis and are widely used by scientists in the methodology of a wide variety of humanitarian, technical and natural science disciplines.

Separately, we will study the concepts of "prediction" and "prophecy" as communicative phenomena that are potentially distinguished in media texts when analyzing media discourse. Prediction is considered by philologists as a kind of communicative action, in the content of which one can single out a fairly categorical statement about what will happen in the future. V. I. Karasik notes that predictions can be rationally conditioned and intuitively generated, formulated in a form that allows for ambiguous interpretation ^{[14, p. 30]}. According to V. I. Karasik, prophecies expressing the divine message can be opposed to predictions ^[14]. In the context of this study, we share the concept of religious prophecy and prophecy in the broadest sense of the word. Outside the context of religious discourse, we understand prophecy as a declaration of a high degree of personal confidence in events related to the future without reference to the probabilistic nature of such a judgment.  The concept of a self-fulfilling prophecy is also interesting. Sociologist R. K. Merton introduced this concept in order to describe a false definition of a situation, causing behavior that makes an initially false representation true. According to this concept, if someone defines a situation as real, then it will be real in its consequences ^{[15, pp. 38-45],[16]}.

Some aspects of the linguistic understanding of time

The grammatical category of time is present and reflected in most languages of the world ^{[17, p. 108]}. In this case, the moment of speech is taken as a reference point for distinguishing grammatical tenses. The past is defined as what happened before the moment of speech, the present has the beginning of the moment of speech, and the future in most cases has the starting point of the moment of the end of speech ^[18]. Our worldview is inextricably linked to the passage of the present. Actually, the transition from the past to the present, or from the present to the future, is not designated by any separate term. T. Y. Denisova notes: "When there are no changes in our thinking (perception), or when we do not notice them, there is no gap between one "now" (beginning) and another "now" (end) for us, and the two "now" merge together" ^{[19, p. 104]}. In most languages, special linguistic units are distinguished that allow relatively accurate description of time and its discreteness (moment, moment, instant, year, week, epoch, etc.).

We have found that in mass communication there are certain tendencies to appeal to the future as a source of information (very variously implemented), and there is also a tendency to implicitly include the future in causal relationships with the present or the past. The probabilistic nature of this kind of cause-and-effect relationships is usually not declared. In mass communication, there is an active introduction of information into its actual part, which has a much greater connection with the future than with the past or present. The inevitability of the future, at the same time, serves as a kind of guarantee that this kind of information is not false. As an example, let us cite the words of N. S. Khrushchev, uttered by him at the XXII Congress of the CPSU: "The current generation of Soviet people will live under communism" ^[20]. In this statement, an affirmative (assertive) modality can be distinguished, which expresses the addressee's judgments that are not supported by any evidence. The sentence lacks the performative formula "I know that..." or "I think..." ^{[21, p. 96]}. In addition, there is a significant interpretative potential in this formulation ^{[22, p. 193]}, since it does not directly indicate which of the generations available at that time would survive to "communism". Also, the word "generation" itself has a high potential for interpretation. In 1960, this word was broadly understood as "a set of relatives of the same degree of kinship with respect to a common ancestor", and in a figurative sense, this word meant "a set of people of close age living at a given time" ^[23],[24]. By choosing this form of utterance, the addressee indicates that the event will inevitably happen, which is quite typical for mass communication of that time. The Soviet Union was dominated by a materialistic natural-scientific universal ideology with a rational-materialistic approach to the formation of socially significant judgments ^[25]. In Soviet propaganda, they tried to avoid formulations perceived by the audience as a prophecy. Prophecies were generally considered unacceptable for shaping public opinion. Nevertheless, it was precisely such a speech formula with an appeal to the future that was used and even later became the argumentative basis for many hierarchically dependent judgments. This phrase was actively disseminated in the media, was not criticized, and was included in the basis of ideological constructions and moral and ethical norms.

In modern realities, in the Russian media discourse, the media actively publish various statements by V. V. Zhirinovsky, in which there is no direct reference to either the past or the present. At the same time, in the headlines and descriptions of news articles, his judgments of this kind are designated as prophecies. For example, the news with the headline "Zhirinovsky's prophecy about the conflict in Israel is at odds on the Web" contains the following categorical statement by Vladimir Volfovich: "Israel has no future. They will not stand either in a peaceful version or in a forceful version" ^[26]. In this case, the first sentence contains the word "future", and the second sentence belongs to the category of future tense from a grammatical point of view. As another example, let's give a news story with the headline "The Network remembered the "prophecy" Zhirinovsky on Ukraine and the Middle East." The text of the article itself contains an interpretation of V. V. Zhirinovsky's words "Zhirinovsky predicted that by 2024 everyone would forget about Ukraine because of the conflict in the Middle East" and his quote "By 2024, a conflict will break out in the Middle East, and everyone will simply forget what Ukraine is" ^[27]. The journalist-author of the article took the statement of V. V. Zhirinovsky as a prediction. In the quote given in the article, there are no words softening the categorical statement, but there are verbs standing in the form of the future tense "flare up" and "forget". It should be noted that the audience showed a positive reaction to the article, 3281 site users approved the content of the article. In the comments under this news, there was no desire of the audience to engage in a detailed polemic with the author of the article.

We believe that in society, to a large extent, regardless of the existing value system (ideology), there is a significant request for information appealing to the category of the future tense. For example, in the United States, the so-called "Groundhog Day" is traditionally celebrated, which has become a significant media event in recent years. On this day, the groundhog is removed from its burrow and its behavior is monitored. Based on the actions of the animal, predictions are made about the proximity of the onset of spring ^{[28, pp. 136-140]}. It is interesting to note that the discrepancy between the results of these predictions and the realities does not cause Americans to reject and criticize the holiday, the event is still an important part of American culture. There is also a tradition in the American media to voice astrological forecasts related to the development of the situation in the financial market. Such forecasts represent a special segment of the so-called alternative analytics ^[29]. Online financial prediction resources are very popular. We discovered the English-language website of the Institute of Cosmological Economics, which contains the following description: "Institute of cosmological economics. Predictive financial technologies. New scientific paradigm of market forecasting» ^[30]. The site contains a large number of elements such as mystical symbols and animated images, hyperlinks, online versions of books and articles on the subject of predictions. The information posted on the site is mainly astrological calculations of the probability of success in trading something (currency, grain, software, etc.). The use of such information appealing to the future tense, in our opinion, is traditional for the United States, such information is not subjected to detailed critical analysis, is relayed in the media It is partly introduced into a ritualized quasi-religious tradition, there is no full-fledged discussion around it, and when it is presented, no emphasis is placed on the probabilistic nature of such information.

Results and discussion

The phenomenon of accepting some information "from the future" as an irrevocable and axiologically significant phenomenon is most likely due to universal paradigms of world perception and attitude. Such paradigms, in our opinion, necessarily include intuitive interactions, which can be defined as non-recursive. Within the framework of such interactions, prophecy, as verbally expressed and formalized information, is beyond the usual schemes of critical comprehension based on formal logical principles. The prophecy is outside the categorical scheme "true-false-undefined" ^[31]. At the same time, the deactualization of the argumentation base within the framework of the prophecy does not occur due to its extreme reduction, or being outside the area accessible to criticism from the target audience.

Why are prophecies so perceived by a mass audience? They are connected with the coming of the future, and it, from the point of view of sensory perception, inevitably comes. Thus, this takes the prophecy beyond the perception of the present, despite the form of presentation. The following can be identified as possible reasons for the existence of prophecies: the needs of the audience (including the target), the needs of the addressee, the presence of an intact uncertainty zone (associated with the onset of the future) and the patterns of its transformation, the emotional and cognitive conditionality of the perception of time as a system-forming factor. The axiology of prophecies includes the ability to reduce the zone of intact uncertainty, or modify it. Prophecies largely ensure the emotionally significant existence of non-rejected information that does not have most of the characteristic signs of connection with the present or the past. The prophecy does not produce an obvious paradox when referring to the future, which is confirmed by the characteristic reactions of the mass audience.

In our opinion, it is quite correct to speak of the "habitual future" as inevitably coming, expected, easily predictable, widespread. D. Hume in the treatise "Research on human cognition" rightly noted: "Habit is the great leader of human life. It is only this principle that makes experience useful for us and encourages us to expect a course of events in the future similar to what we perceived in the past" ^[32]. The statement of the existence of a "familiar future" is possible within the framework of almost any linguistic culture. The "habitual future" and the "prophecy" interact, interpenetrate, and this process is not specifically formalized in speech. "Prophecy", in contrast to the "habitual future", in a certain sense represents an accentuated future, an axiologically super-valuable starting point, a reserve for future discursive connections.

In general, it should be noted that prophecy cannot be uniquely and entirely determined by the current realities of discourse. The relevance of the prophecy is largely non-discursive. The preservation of the element(s) of uncertainty in the prophecy is probably necessary. On the other hand, we must state that in the information flow produced by the media, prophecy is perceived by the mass audience as a natural, non-irritating and non-repudiated phenomenon. A very wide emotional range can be noted as a specific property of prophecy (including, but not limited to, the interpretative potential itself), which, as a rule, is presented in a compact form, but is practically unlimited.

Conclusion

Summing up the results of the conducted research, it should be noted the following. One can confidently state the existence of a public request for information appealing to the category of the future tense. This request, most likely, does not depend much on historical and linguistic and cultural specifics, it is quite characteristic and traditional. Probably, the appeal to the arrays of information "from the future" is associated with the large-scale patterns of human psychology and the perception of time as a system-forming factor. Most likely, this kind of appeal to information related to the future, its form, inclusion in the system of public relations, will undergo little change, even taking into account the progressive digitalization.

Prophecy can be understood as a declaration of a high degree of personal confidence in events related to the future, without reference to the probabilistic nature of such a judgment. Prophecy has become an integral part of texts in mass communication and is likely to remain so. The prophecy is characterized by the incompleteness of the "life cycle". It has an "open date" for the final actualization – the onset of predicted events. The communicative phenomenon of "prophecy", which is found in the media, requires further consideration by the scientific community, since its problems are localized at the junction of different scientific disciplines. The prospect of further study of the prophecy is its deeper philosophical understanding.