Karyakin V.V. Civil War in South-East of Ukraine: a scenario analysis and prediction of politico-military background

Abstract: This article is focused on the critical geopolitical situation inside and around Ukraine that presents new challenges and direct threats to national interests and security of Russian Federation. The scenario analysis of regional politico-military background and evolutional modeling of international systems, as exemplified by the Ukrainian crisis, demonstrates that this crisis is a direct result of Western country efforts intended straight to turn Ukraine into its strategic foothold for pressuring Russia in order to prevent it from becoming a leading world power. The methodological basis of this research is constituted of systemic, structural-functional, comparative-political approaches, and the methods of analysis, synthesis, observation and modeling. Ukraine, as a piece on the Global geopolitical chessboard, is still a small piece for lead actors of international politics in their antagonism towards Russia in a struggle for global and regional leadership. If Moscow wins in this conflict, Russia will have a solid spot among the great powers, and will fortify its influence on the international arena considerably, giving the new, multipolar world a new geopolitical dimension.

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