E. Raiklin Where China is going: a peek into the future

Abstract: A similar question was asked in another article called “An attempt to understand China’s development”, which was published in International Relations Journal on February 11, 18 and 23, 2013. In this article, we attempt to take another glance at the available facts and will try to find out how well-substantiated are both, positive and negative impressions of the observers of China’s grand change. For this attempt not to be reduced to simple discourse, we employ comparative and political analysis, selecting China and the USSR for comparing development dynamics. The methodological basis of this research consists of systemic, structural-fucntional, comparative-historical, comparative-political, geopolitical, cultural-civilizational approaches, as well as methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling and observation. The major changes in China’s national economy planning occurred in the timeframe of creating the 10th 5-year plan (2000-2005), on the background of China’s entrance into World Trade Organization, accelerating the restructuring of world economy, spread of information and new high technologies, the computerization of society and the development of scientific and technical progress, substantial increase of transnational corporations and the broadening of their work’s scale. The resulting effect was China’s considerable changes in national economy – changes that affected the changes in China’s national economy plans. The main changes in the planning system, linked with the transition from directive to indicative planning, have started during the 10th 5-year plan drafting (2001-2005), which signified a full transition from quality to quality in planning.

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