Belousova, A.V. Modeling and evaluation of the innovative development effects in the export sector of economy: the Far East

Abstract: The article contains scenario modeling and evaluation of economic effects from the events aimed for innovative development of the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District and for neutralization of export-transaction related threats to the economic security of the macro-region according with the state programs. The author uses the following prerequisites for the evaluated scenarios: development of export specialization of the district in the sphere of manufacturing activity; changes in the parameters for the technical development of the export sector of the macro-region. Within the first scenario the author singles out export of manufacturing products, which shall generate maximal growth of the gross regional product for the district, as well as limitations for the comparable effects in case of development of other specialized manufactures of the Far Eastern economics. Within the second scenario the author identifies the factors for the innovative development of the export sector, lowering the risks of technological dependency of the Far Eastern Federal District on the other states, which is generated by import of equipment and machinery.

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