Low carbon full life cycle energy

Gadirov Amal Allakhveran Ogli Student, Faculty of International Relations, Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia 76 Vernadsky str., Moscow, 119454, Russia a-gadirow@bk.ru

Introduction

As the average standard of living of the population of the planet increases, the population of the planet itself increases, and the consumer demand of the population of the planet increases. Consequently, production capacities aimed at its satisfaction are being increased. All of the above contributes to the growth of global electricity consumption. And despite the fact that traditional sources remain the main source of energy, the world community is concerned about finding more efficient (alternative) energy sources.

So in the world economy, the main problems are identified: depletion of natural resources and uneven distribution of natural resources. They dictate the need to search for new and develop existing alternative energy sources. In this regard, it is particularly important and relevant to use the full potential of low-carbon full-cycle energy as the next step in the technological chain of the energy industry.

Within the framework of this study, the goal is to prove the importance of low-carbon full-cycle energy and its development for Russia based on the analysis of the conjuncture and current trends in the energy industry. To achieve this goal, a number of tasks have been completed:

1) The main trends in the development of the energy industry are identified, taking into account the energy transition ^[13];

2) The possibilities of the Russian Federation in the issue of increasing the production of low-carbon energy at full-cycle facilities are analyzed.

The main results of the study include proof of the prospects of this technological solution for the Russian economy, taking into account its role as the main and reliable supplier of energy to Asia.

Methodology

In the study, we will first define the terminology. Full–cycle low-carbon energy is an energy industry that strives to reduce the emission of hydrocarbons during the entire technological chain of production and transmission of electricity. Currently, most countries are pursuing a policy of decarbonizing the economy, i.e. avoiding the production and consumption of electricity produced with the help of hydrocarbons. For example, European countries have almost completely abandoned coal production and closed coal mines on their territory.

Based on the definition, energy production technologies with high CO2 emissions include (non-renewable energy sources):

1. Coal industry
2. Gas industry
3. Oil industry

Energy production technologies with low CO2 emissions include (renewable energy):

1. Solar Power Plants (SES)
2. Wind power plants (wind farms)
3. Hydroelectric power plants (HPP, GRES)
4. Biofuels
5. Hybrid systems

Research results

Despite the trends highlighted above, the availability of hydrocarbon resources remains a significant factor for the economy of each country. The availability of natural resources and a high level of development of the mining and processing industry ensures the competitiveness of the country and its political and economic potential.

Figure 1. Proven oil and gas reserves, tons

Figure 1 shows the growth of proven oil and gas reserves, but this growth has been slowing down in the last decade. According to numerous experts, there are quite a lot of reserves of hydrocarbon resources of the planet and it can be used for several more decades ^[1]. However, easily accessible (both by geographical location and geological occurrence) deposits that are already in development will be depleted over time. And the development of new, undeveloped deposits is considered to be significantly difficult from a technical and, consequently, from an economic point of view, since new undeveloped deposits are usually difficult to develop ^[14], which in turn requires large financial investments, namely geological exploration, technical calculations, supply of communications, purchase and delivery of expensive equipment, field development, laying of pipelines or railway tracks and communications, transportation of fuel to the consumer.

In addition, oil, gas and coal deposits are not geographically evenly distributed, which means that many countries do not own their reserves, and completely depend on those countries with sufficient energy reserves in terms of energy.

A derivative of the increase in demand and consumption of hydrocarbons is such a problem as emissions of carbon dioxide and harmful substances that cause a greenhouse effect and a number of environmental problems described below.

Figure 2. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita in tons

As the comparison of Figures 1 and 2 shows, the increase in atmospheric emissions from ₂ directly depends on the growth of energy consumption. So until 2020, due to the lack of economic growth, there was a decline in energy consumption and, consequently, _CO2 emissions associated with the energy industry fell. And already starting from 2022, when economic growth began to be observed, the growth of energy consumption increased and, as a result, _CO2 emissions increased.

In 2022, China, the United States, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Iran are the leaders in terms of the amount of _CO2 emissions.

According to the World Wildlife Fund, the risks of loss of various ecological systems and various representatives of the animal world are increasing. This threat to the global ecosystem, according to scientists and environmentalists from the Wildlife Fund, is caused by _CO2 emissions, and mainly, according to the Wildlife Fund, these emissions from the burning of fossil fuels ^[3].

According to the statistical yearbook of world energy for 2022, the increase in atmospheric emissions from ₂ is directly proportional to the growth of energy consumption. So until 2022, due to the lack of economic growth, there was a decline in energy consumption and, consequently, _CO2 emissions associated with the energy industry fell. And already starting in 2023, when economic growth began to be observed, the growth in energy consumption increased and, as a result, _CO2 emissions increased.

The main source of _CO2 combustion in 2022 was coal, oil in second place, and natural gas in third place ^[4].

The high dynamics of energy consumption means that the constant increase in the consumption of the total amount of energy by the population of the planet inevitably leads to the depletion of natural non-renewable resources of the planet. Thus, according to the statistical yearbook of world energy, due to the increase in global demand for energy, energy consumption in 2022 increased by 5% ^[2].

The increase in energy consumption is also associated with an increase in the population of Asian countries, which exacerbates the task of ensuring reliable energy supply and equal access to energy for consumers, especially if we take into account the problem of poverty and the inability for the poorest segments of the population to receive energy at rising prices.

The development of energy technologies largely determines the pace of economic growth and its sectoral structure in the long term, influencing the magnitude of absolute and relative production costs in the country, as well as the limit of production capabilities of the national economy. At the same time, economic growth is an important factor in the dynamics of energy demand.

It is safe to say that the crisis of 2020 will lead not only to a global decrease in energy prices, but also to a decrease in energy consumption as a result of a decrease in production capacities of all countries of the world.

Taking into account the above, it should be noted that climate risks have a significant impact not only on social development and human life, but also on the industries themselves. We will highlight such risks for each industry in Table 1.

Table 1. Risks of climate change for energy

Source: compiled by the author

All of the above stimulates the increasing need to search and research the use of low-carbon energy sources for more efficient technological and less emergency use. According to many researchers, low-carbon energy sources are the main means of adapting the energy industry to the conditions of a changing climate and modern environmental requirements.

Figure 3. Low-carbon energy consumption in the world, TWh

Having considered the main trends in the global development of the energy industry, we will proceed to the analysis of the situation in the Russian Federation. Russia, despite its potential in the introduction of low-carbon energy sources, continues to lag behind, the scale of the use of alternative energy is very limited ^[15]. Recently, however, there has been an increase associated with the active introduction of new technological solutions and government support for the industry. The dynamics of the development of low-carbon electricity generation in the Russian Federation is reflected in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Low-carbon energy generation in Russia, GWh

Source: compiled by the author based on data https://rreda.ru/statistics_of_renewable_energy_in_russia

At the same time, despite the relatively low role of low-carbon energy sources in the Russian energy balance, significant technological groundwork in this industry belongs to Russian scientists:

- a new chlorine-free technology for producing solar polycrystalline silicon with low energy costs, with a service life of 40 years;

- modern technological developments in geothermal energy and equipment for small hydroelectric power plants;

- cheap and reliable small-capacity solar and wind installations, wind turbines, photovoltaic solar collectors;

- technologies for processing peat bogs into biofuels.

In addition, experimental and pilot plants were created ^[5]:

1) Kislogubskaya tidal power plant on the Kola Peninsula with a capacity of 450 kW;

2) experimental Paratunskaya two-circuit, with a capacity of 11 MW and experimental-industrial Paratunskaya single-circuit geothermal thermal power plants (GeoTES);

3) experimental solar base in Alushta with a large "solar boiler";

4) solar water heating installations in the Rostov region, the Republic of Dagestan, in the Krasnodar Territory.

Taking into account the technological groundwork, as well as significant prospects for the development of low-carbon energy, state incentive measures to support the development and introduction of alternative energy sources have been developed and introduced into the economy in Russia ^[16]. Let's characterize the Russian potential for the development of low-carbon full-cycle energy.

Russia's potential in the development of wind energy is considered very large ^[17]. In addition, Russia is a manufacturer and exporter of special equipment for wind power plants ^[6]. However, in Russian practice, it is calculated by experts according to the main indicator – a large area of the country, while it is not taken into account that the wind speed in many regions of the country is either low or average, and this speed is not enough for the cost-effective operation of wind turbines.

Russia has excellent conditions for hydropower – there are many wide and fast rivers with good water filling in the country, especially in the northern regions. That is why in Russia the main direction of development of alternative energy sources remains – hydropower. In Russia, hydropower is an order of magnitude more energy efficient than wind power and any other type of low-carbon energy ^[18,19]. That is why the most rational solution is not to invest significant forces and finances from the state budget in the introduction of wind energy. Nevertheless, in those regions where geographical, weather and climatic conditions allow the installation of energy-efficient wind turbines (mountainous regions of the Caucasus, coastal regions) they are still installed ^[20,21].

Currently, the total volume of all low-carbon energy facilities does not exceed 0.1% of Russia's energy balance. The potential of these facilities has been used by 0.5% so far. And in the all-Russian economic potential, these volumes do not exceed 10%.

The prospects of the Russian Federation in the development of solar energy are quite optimistic for the following reasons:

1) the presence of large areas in the Russian Federation;

2) the presence of significant territories with a large number of sunny days in the following regions: Stavropol; Krasnodar Krai; Areas of the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea; Volgograd; Southern Siberia; Southern Urals; Chita; Astrakhan; Kalmykia; Buryatia; Rostov; Far East; Altai.

To date, there are about 35 solar power plants operating in Russia, the total installed capacity of which is currently 850 MW, another 30 solar power plants are at various stages of construction. It is assumed that the total capacity of solar power plants under construction will be 810 MW ^[22,23].

It is estimated that the generation potential of Russian solar energy in terms of hydrocarbon fuel is from 2200 billion tons to 2500 billion tons according to various sources. Today, however, it is possible to count on the cost-effective use of solar energy equal to only 12.5 million tons of hydrocarbon fuel. This is due to seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours. So, for example, despite the sufficient intensity of solar radiation in the northern latitudes of Russia, the sunny time of day is very short.

In Russia, work is underway in various areas of solar energy, for example, various methods and methods are being developed for more cost-effective use of various alternative energy sources ^{[7],[8],[9],[10],[11]}.

From all that has been said, it follows that there are many regions in the Russian Federation in which it is possible and necessary to introduce solar energy and install both solar power stations and autonomous solar electric panels.

Today, the Russian Federation is not as actively using wind power generators as other countries. However, in Russia there are many manufacturers engaged in the production of wind power equipment and the construction of wind power plants, including the production of equipment for wind power is engaged in the military-industrial complex. It is possible to single out the five leaders of wind energy production, namely: LLC "SKB Iskra", LLC "Sapsan-Energiya", "LMV Wind Power", LLC "Vetro Svet", LLC "Energivind".

It is estimated that the potential for the construction of wind power plants in Russia is approximately 6,400 billion kilowatt hours, this number is 6 times more than the current generation of all electricity in the country. Thus, the Russian Federation has a huge potential for the construction of wind power plants for the production of electricity from free wind energy, as well as for the transportation of electricity to other countries ^[24,25].

Conclusion

Currently, hydrocarbon energy sources will remain the most demanded energy resources. However, due to the highlighted limitations of traditional energy sources, it is necessary to reconsider approaches to low-carbon energy sources.

There are technological solutions that allow you to independently supply electricity to any building, enterprise, car. But the problem of using only one type of low-carbon energy source (without additional connection of the consumer to the electrical network) lies both in the economic justification and in the reliable uninterrupted operation of this low-carbon electric current source.

In addition, those states whose economies are heavily dependent on the hydrocarbon industry, if they invest in the development, construction and launch of alternative power plants, they are not doing it actively enough.

Russia belongs to such countries, the use of low-carbon energy sources in our country is developing slowly, despite the high estimated potential. At the same time, it is impractical to focus on the development of only renewable energy sources in the Russian Federation both for economic reasons and due to the fact that it is economically more expedient to use hydrocarbons.