Public attitude to the riots in Moscow during the escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Vedernikova Mariya Igorevna Postgraduate student, St. Petersburg State University 125993, Russia, Saint Petersburg, Smolny str., 1/3 Entrance No. 7, p. 3. maria.vedernikowa@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has a long history, during which there have been periods of fading and aggravation. The article will consider the main stages of the development of the conflict.

The conflict of 1905-1907 can be designated as the first stage of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Further, the clashes of 1918-1920 became a significant stage, when three independent states were formed on the territory of Transcaucasia as a result of the collapse of the Russian Empire: The Georgian Democratic Republic, the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic and the Republic of Armenia. But the Armenian population of Karabakh and Zangezur, which is part of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, refused to obey the authorities, and in June 1918, the Armenians of Karabakh proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh an independent administrative and political unit and elected their own people's government.

The confrontation between the troops of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic and the Armenian armed detachments continued until the establishment of Soviet power in Azerbaijan in 1920. The status of Nagorno-Karabakh was finally determined in June 1921 by the decision of the plenum of the Central Committee of the RCP(b), according to which the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh remains in the Azerbaijan SSR, but it is granted broad regional autonomy ^{[1, 2]}.

After that, until the 1960s, peace was maintained on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, despite the fact that the issue of the transfer of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia was raised in 1945, but it was not widely advertised and did not find the support of the Soviet leadership. In the 1960s, against the background of socio-economic tensions, mass riots took place on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which were quickly eliminated and had no serious consequences.

The issue of the transfer of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia was also raised in 1963, 1977 and 1983.  Until 1988, this issue was not widely publicized.  In 1988, on February 20, the Regional Council of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region again appealed to the leadership of the USSR with a request to transfer the territory of Karabakh to Armenia, but, having once again been refused, the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh unilaterally announced their withdrawal from Azerbaijan on July 12.

The period from February 20 to July 12, 1988 was accompanied by rallies and protests on the territory of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Since September, the situation in the region has begun to escalate, a number of armed clashes have occurred. On January 12, 1989, by the decision of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, direct administration was introduced in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, and on January 15, 1990, by the decision of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, a state of emergency was introduced in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, the areas bordering it of the Azerbaijan SSR, as well as in the Goris district of the Armenian SSR. From the end of April to the beginning of June 1991, the operation "Ring" was carried out in the region by the forces of the internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the USSR and parts of the Soviet Army ^{[1, 2]}.

In connection with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the period from December 19 to December 27, 1991, units of the Soviet Army and internal troops of the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs were withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabakh. Control over the situation in the conflict zone was finally lost. An open armed confrontation began between Armenia and Azerbaijan for control of the region using heavy artillery, aircraft and tanks, which lasted until May 1994. With the mediation of Russia and Kyrgyzstan, a ceasefire agreement, known as the Bishkek Protocol, was signed in Bishkek by Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

Despite local incidents involving the use of firearms on the border, the ceasefire regime was maintained until 2014, when the situation in the conflict zone worsened again as a result of the shooting down of a helicopter of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army. After that, regular shelling resumed, the parties to the conflict accused each other of using large-caliber artillery.

The next escalation of the conflict in the contact zone occurred on the night of April 2, 2016, fierce clashes lasted for several days. On April 5, 2016, a meeting of the Chiefs of the General Staffs of Azerbaijan and Armenia was held in Moscow, with the assistance of Russia, as a result of which an agreement was reached on a ceasefire on the line of contact.

Fig.1 Losses as a result of violations of the truce by Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh

Figure 1, based on the data of Peace Dialogue NGO ^[3], shows the losses as a result of violations of the truce by Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. There is no exact data on the number of losses on the part of Azerbaijan. As can be seen in Figure 1, from May 1994 to 2014, annual losses did not exceed 12 people, but since 2014 the number of deaths as a result of ceasefire violations has more than doubled, despite the fact that in 2018 and 2019 the number of local incidents on the border with the use of firearms has decreased and As a result, the number of deaths has also decreased.

But in 2020, the escalation of the conflict on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia began, resulting in full-scale hostilities.

The conflict escalated on June 12, 2020 on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia, but, unlike past military clashes on the contact line, this conflict became a catalyst for unrest and clashes not in Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku or Yerevan, but in Moscow.

Skirmishes between representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out in different districts of Moscow (Salarievo, Marino, etc.) from July 23 to 25. Prior to that, it was reported that people from Azerbaijan had closed their markets and trading networks for Armenian goods.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called on Russian Armenians not to succumb to provocations. Azerbaijani Ambassador to Moscow Polad Bulbul oglu also called on compatriots to comply with the laws of the Russian Federation.

To assess the public's attitude to the riots in July 2020 in Moscow, an anonymous sociological survey was conducted in two regions of the Russian Federation (Moscow and the Voronezh Region). These regions were chosen based on the fact that one of them is directly the place of development of events (Moscow), and the second is part of the Central Federal District (CFD) (Voronezh Region).

200 people took part in the survey: one hundred people from each selected region. The interviewees were asked to answer three questions:

1. Have you heard about the riots in Moscow on the 20th of July 2020?

2. What caused these riots?

3.     How should the Russian authorities react to the clashes between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Moscow?

The first question was a closed-type question that could only be answered with "yes" or "no".

The survey showed that the majority of respondents (96% from Moscow and 83% from the Voronezh region) knew about the riots. The results of the answers to the first question are shown in the graphs shown in Fig. 2 (respondents from Moscow) and Fig. 3 (respondents from the Voronezh region).

Fig.2 Results of answers to the first question (for Moscow)

Fig.3 Results of answers to the first question (for the Voronezh region)

The second question was an open-ended question to which the survey participant could give any answer. It was asked only to those respondents who answered the first question in the affirmative. The results of the answers to the second question are shown in Fig. 4 (respondents from Moscow) and Fig. 5 (respondents from the Voronezh region).

Fig.4 Results of answers to the second question (for Moscow)

Fig.5 Results of answers to the second question (for the Voronezh region)

The received answers to the second question were grouped into three main groups. 

When answering the third question , the following answer options were offered:

 a) ignore,

b) deport those who violate the law of the Russian Federation,

c) I find it difficult to answer.  

The third question with multiple answers was offered to 79 respondents from Moscow (who gave the correct answer to the second question) and 52 respondents from the Voronezh region. The results of the answers to the second question are shown in Fig. 6 (respondents from Moscow) and Fig. 7 (respondents from the Voronezh region).

Fig.6 Results of answers to the third question (for Moscow) I find it difficult

Fig.7 Results of answers to the third question (for the Voronezh region)

The survey showed that the number of respondents 18-37% of those participating in the survey did not even know about the true cause of the riots.

The development of further mass riots on the territory of Russia as a result of the aggravation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was avoided thanks to the prompt intervention of the power structures of the Russian Federation and holding meetings of representatives of the power structures with representatives of the Union of Armenians of Russia and the Union of Azerbaijanis of Russia; with official representatives of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as representatives of the Azerbaijani and Armenian diasporas in Russia.

The conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region continues to this day, which is an extremely dangerous phenomenon, since there are examples in history when world wars began as local conflicts between the two countries.

Acknowledgements: the author expresses gratitude to Yu.Yu. Alentyev for his help in graphoanalytic processing of survey results.