Employment instability as a factor of socio-economic insecurity of workers

Tsygankova Alina Nikolaevna Postgraduate student; Faculty of Sociology; Lomonosov Moscow State University 16 Trofimova str., Moscow, 115432, Russia rbk32r@gmail.com

Introduction

The problem of sustainable development of various social and economic systems remains one of the central topics of scientific research and public policy today. Sustainable development implies a type of economic growth that meets the current needs of society without undermining the ability of future generations to provide themselves with resources.

This principle was recognized internationally at the end of the 20th century and enshrined in reports and decisions of organizations such as the United Nations and the World Commission on Environment and Development. Among the main aspects of sustainable development, there are three areas: economic, social and environmental. Socio-economic stability is impossible without the creation of stable and fair working conditions.

Employment of the population plays a key role in ensuring social stability. Full-fledged and productive work, providing decent working and living conditions, is an important element of economic growth and social well-being. However, current trends in the labor market lead to increased job insecurity, which has negative consequences for both workers and the economy as a whole.

The present study is aimed at studying the impact of job insecurity on the socio-economic situation of workers. The work analyzes the factors determining the instability of labor relations, examines the main forms of instability, and assesses its consequences for various categories of workers.

Theoretical and methodological foundations of the research

The issues of sustainable development at various levels of socio-economic systems remain in the focus of attention of both the scientific community and government policy. The modern theory of the sustainability of socio-economic systems continues to evolve, forming new approaches to understanding their dynamics and balance. It is believed that such systems have an internal potential for development, representing a process of qualitative changes accompanied by quantitative transformations. In scientific research, sustainable development is interpreted in different ways: as maintaining stability and balance, maintaining high social standards or rational use of resources. However, the transition of the system to a new qualitative state may be accompanied by instability, leading to social and economic imbalances. This article examines social and labor relations, namely employment as a key subsystem of the socio-economic structure. Full-fledged and productive employment, as well as ensuring decent working conditions, play an important role in achieving sustainable development, stimulating economic growth and reducing poverty. These issues are at the center of both international initiatives and national employment programs. The purpose of the study is to analyze changes in the sphere of social and labor relations in terms of their impact on the reproduction of human capital, the balance of economic, social and environmental interests, as well as on the quality of economic growth.

The study uses an integrated approach that includes a combination of general scientific and special methods to analyze job insecurity and its consequences. General scientific methods include analysis and synthesis, which make it possible to decompose the phenomenon under study into separate components and then combine them into an integrated system; induction and deduction, which identify common patterns based on particular cases and apply general theories to particular phenomena; a systematic approach that considers employment instability as an element of the socio-economic system; historical method which allows analyzing changes in employment in the time perspective; as well as structural and functional analysis aimed at identifying the role of various forms of employment in the social and economic system.

Special research methods include statistical analysis used to process data from Rosstat, the International Labor Organization ^[32], the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) Monitoring of the economic situation and Public Health in order to identify trends in employment instability ^[24]; sociological methods, including questionnaires, interviews and focus groups, which allows to study the opinions of workers employment instability; comparative analysis used to study international experience in regulating unstable forms of employment; economic and mathematical modeling that helps predict the impact of employment instability on the labor market; and content analysis used to study regulatory documents and publications on this issue.

The application of this methodological framework provides a comprehensive study of the phenomenon under study and allows us to suggest possible ways to regulate it.

Literature review

The study of job insecurity is based on a wide range of scientific sources, including both foreign and domestic works. The reviewed studies cover various aspects of the problem: a theoretical understanding of employment instability, its socio-economic consequences, a comparative analysis of international experience and prospects for regulating unstable forms of work.

An analysis of scientific publications shows that employment instability is considered in the context of its impact on income levels, social security and professional development of employees ^[03],[31]. Foreign studies ^[32],[33] emphasize the growth of precarization of labor and a decrease in employment standards. It is important to take into account international experience in regulating unstable forms of employment, including examples from the EU and the USA, where special measures have been developed to support workers in flexible and temporary forms of employment.

The study is based on key theories and concepts explaining job insecurity and its socio-economic consequences. In the theory of precarization, Guy Standing identifies the "precariat" as a new social class consisting of workers engaged in unstable and low-paid forms of work. According to this concept, precarization is accompanied by a lack of stable social guarantees, professional insecurity, and a deterioration in the quality of life ^[34]. The theory of labor market segmentation is also used ^[29].The labor market is divided into primary and secondary sectors. This theory explains why some workers find themselves in unstable forms of employment and face limited opportunities for professional growth. In the theory of human capital ^[28], education and professional skills are considered as investments that determine income levels and employment stability. In an unstable labor market, low investment in human capital leads to an increase in temporary and low-paid employment. According to the theory of social exclusion ^[33], employment instability leads to social exclusion, limited access to resources, deterioration of the economic situation and a decrease in the quality of life.

The study uses data from Rosstat, which reflects the dynamics of employment in Russia over the past 10 years. Statistics show that the share of workers engaged in unstable forms of work is steadily growing: from 22% in 2010 to 32% in 2022 ^[24]. Additional information is provided by data from the International Labour Organization ^[32], which allows for a comparative analysis of the situation in Russia and abroad. According to the ILO report, the prevalence of precarious employment is significantly higher in countries with underdeveloped social protection systems. Compensation mechanisms for temporary workers are in place in European countries, while in Russia such measures are under development. The research of T.A. Alekseev and Golberg analyzes the social mobility of workers in conditions of unstable employment. They show that temporary employment, as a rule, does not serve as a transitional stage to stable work, but rather perpetuates workers in a vulnerable position ^[01],[31]. The works of A.I. Kuznetsov and M.A. Kuznetsov are devoted to the analysis of employment instability in Russia. The authors emphasize that the spread of fixed-term contracts and part-time employment is associated with changes in legislation, economic crises and global trends in flexible employment ^[13],[14].

In recent decades, the labor market has undergone significant transformations, which can be described as radical. Among the key trends:

- the redistribution of labor from the industrial sector to the service sector;

- the growing importance of intellectual and non-material work;

- the spread of flexible and non-standard forms of employment;

- Strengthening the role of digital platforms and online business models.

These changes have both positive and negative consequences. On the one hand, they contribute to greater flexibility of the labor market, create additional opportunities for women, pensioners, students, and people with disabilities. Employers, in turn, receive tools to adapt more quickly to changes in the business environment. On the other hand, the spread of non-standard forms of employment can lead to increased labor instability, deterioration of working conditions and a decrease in social guarantees.

Thus, the analysis of changes in employment requires an integrated approach that takes into account both positive and negative aspects of the ongoing processes. Further study of this topic will make it possible to develop effective mechanisms of social and economic policy aimed at ensuring a balance of interests of all participants in the labor market ^[12].

The results of the study

In recent years, the Russian labor market has undergone significant changes, many of which have negative consequences for workers. These changes include a decrease in social security, the spread of informal employment, a weakening of the role of trade unions, an increase in income differentiation, high youth unemployment, the presence of the working poor, and a mismatch between education and labor market requirements.

The manifestations of these problems for employees include:

- unformulated or incorrectly executed employment contracts;

- conclusion of fixed-term contracts instead of permanent ones;

- delays or reduced wages;

- lack of social benefits (sick leave, maternity leave, etc.);

- unsatisfactory working conditions;

- provision of unpaid vacations;

- unpaid overtime work;

- ambiguity about the real employer.

In 2020, the labor force in Russia decreased to 74.9 million people, indicating a significant reduction in employment. This highlights the scale of the potential negative impact of the transformation of labor relations. Precarization of employment is a term describing the deterioration of working conditions and job insecurity, which contributes to social inequality, loss of life prospects and the growth of conflicts in society. In the last 20-30 years, labor relations have been undergoing "corrosion", which is reflected in the spread of informal employment, short-term contracts and underemployment ^[05].

The instability of employment is manifested in:

- forced underemployment;

- dismantling of the "standard" employment contract;

- uncertainty or irregularity of working hours;

- exposure to unjustified dismissal;

- the spread of non-standard forms of labor relations, such as working through agencies, fictitious self-employment and abuse of "training" schemes.

These factors are usually accompanied by lower wages, loss of social guarantees, and reduced social security for employees. Thus, job insecurity encompasses such forms of work as informal and insecure employment. In traditional labor relations, where subordination and dependence of employees on employers are the main signs, instability entails the forced nature of these relations. This approach to assessing labor relations has profound social and economic consequences.

In the context of job insecurity, we can single out the elements proposed by the International Labour Organization (ILO), which propose to consider this phenomenon through two categories of employment agreements characterized by a number of unstable working conditions. Modern research suggests the following approach based on an analysis of the terms of an employment contract and types of employment relations ^[22]:

1. Limited terms of the employment contract (fixed-term, temporary, seasonal, daily and casual types of employment). This leads to significant uncertainty in labor relations and limits the protection of workers' rights.

2. The nature of the employment relationship: including three-way relationships (subcontracting, agency agreements, fictitious self-employment), which often make it difficult to identify the real employer and limit the rights of employees to protect their interests.

The unstable conditions that characterize such forms of employment include:

- Low wages, which worsens the socio-economic situation of employees;

- Limited protection from dismissals or termination of employment;

- Lack of access to social benefits and standard social protection, including medical and pension benefits;

- Limited opportunities for employees to defend their rights.

This approach is important because it reflects not only the economic, but also the social aspects of labor relations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining social standards and living standards of workers in conditions of instability. Informal employment is the most common form of instability, covering almost half of the precariously employed workers. The graph shows the distribution of workers by type of unstable employment (Fig. 1): informal employment – 40%, fixed–term contracts – 25%, part–time employment - 20%, fictitious self-employment - 15%.

Fig. 1. Forms of employment instability in Russia

Thus, the analysis of employment instability requires a study of deviations from normal working conditions that correspond to the level of economic development. In recent years, research has highlighted that the effects of job insecurity can have far-reaching socio-economic consequences for both individual workers and society as a whole. In this regard, it is important to continue research aimed at identifying and minimizing these consequences for effective social and economic development ^[14].

In conditions of unstable employment, the vulnerability of workers increases significantly. The lack of stable labor relations and social guarantees can lead to social isolation, as well as make long-term planning difficult. Workers in such conditions lose the opportunity to reliably plan for starting a family, having and raising children, purchasing or building housing, as well as investing in education and healthcare. All these aspects may become impossible due to the uncertainty of the duration of employment contracts and income instability ^[16].

Recent studies confirm that the spread of job insecurity is deepening the segmentation of the labor market into protected and unprotected segments. The characteristics of employment in the vulnerable segment include: low wages, lack of social protection, high risk of dismissal, uncertain career prospects, and reduced social benefits such as medical care and education ^[6]. These changes lead to a significant disruption of the social security system. Workers excluded from the social security system become vulnerable, which weakens the overall financial stability of social security based on collective financial participation. At the same time, this reduces tax revenues, which weakens the financial capabilities of the economy ^[11].

Job insecurity has a devastating impact on social cohesion and on the sustainability of society as a whole. This is manifested, for example, in a decrease in consumer demand for long-term goods (apartments, cars, cottages), limited investment in human capital (education, healthcare), as well as reduced opportunities for professional growth and experience accumulation. An important consequence is the limited availability of credit, including mortgage loans ^[27]. According to recent studies, employment instability is not only a crisis of the quality of labor relations, but also a crisis of social reproduction. This exacerbates uncertainty about the future, creating forced economic and social instability, which in turn worsens the standard of living of workers, households and society as a whole ^[7].

Employment instability is presented as a multifaceted socio-economic phenomenon in which the risks of deterioration of labor relations increase, and employment itself loses its ability to effectively reproduce the workforce. This phenomenon is associated with the increasing insecurity of workers and the disappearance of stable labor standards, which makes labor relations more vulnerable and unstable. To understand and assess the impact of job insecurity on the socio-economic situation of workers, it is necessary to use an integrated approach, including the development of adequate indicators. Such indicators should cover not only quantitative data, but also qualitative changes in labor relations, which may indicate the process of their dehumanization. Modern changes in labor relations, including flexible and non-standard forms of employment, make it difficult to accurately identify and assess the state of these relations ^[12].

Some experts point out that despite the obvious increase in job insecurity, official statistics often underestimate the scale of this phenomenon, which requires deeper and more accurate monitoring of the situation. In order to adequately measure the degree of employment instability, it is necessary to develop a system of indicators reflecting all aspects of this phenomenon, including the forms, types and social consequences of unstable labor relations ^[20]. As an example, we can cite the systematic forms of employment instability proposed in the works of modern researchers. These forms can be divided into several groups of indicators that will help to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the level and scale of job insecurity. It is important to note that only indicators of the formal sector of the economy are used for the analysis, since the informal sector, with its high proportion of unregistered employment and the most acute forms of instability, is not considered in this context ^[22].

The basis for assessing the impact of employment instability on the socio-economic situation of workers in Russia in the study is the data from the Russian Monitoring of the Economic Situation and Employment (RMEZ-HSE). The data from the representative panel of the 20th monitoring round, collected from 2010 to 2022 (a total of 17,024 observations), was used for the analysis ^[13]. The dynamics of unstable employment is presented in the form of a graph (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Dynamics of employment instability in Russia (2010-2022)

The study uses the International Classification of Employment Status ICSE-93, according to which employees are those who perform employment by entering into formal or informal employment contracts with an employer. According to this classification, employees are not engaged in entrepreneurial activities and are not owners or shareholders. Among the 6,936 employees participating in the study, 93% were officially employed, while 6% worked without a legally executed contract, which was often the result of pressure from the employer. Over the ten-year period, there has been an increase in the number of employees who do not have formal employment contracts ^[6].

However, monitoring data is limited in terms of identifying different types of contracts, which is an important element of the analysis of employment instability. According to official statistics, in 2012, only 4.7% of employees worked on "non-standard" contracts. Since the late 1990s, despite the predominance of permanent employment contracts, there has been a tendency to increase the proportion of non-standard forms of employment, especially during the crisis of 2008, when 10% of employees worked under such contracts ^[14]. Indicators of job insecurity also include problems with the length of the working week and the level of wages. In 2012, 16% of workers experienced instability in their employment, which is higher than in 2002. Almost half of the workers (48%) received wages below two thirds of the average in the economy, which is confirmed by the ILO data on low-paid workers, among whom those who have changed jobs or professions predominate ^[23].

There have also been cases of wage volatility and inconsistencies between actual wages and legal norms, when about 5% of employees faced a reduction in income due to reduced working hours or unpaid leave. Issues of social vulnerability, such as lack of paid sick leave, treatment and vocational training, are also reflected in the Monitoring results. In the 19th round of Monitoring, it was noted that only 87% of employees received sick pay, and only 21% had access to vocational training ^[25]. In addition, the inability to significantly improve housing conditions for 90% of employees, as well as the limited opportunity to save money for large purchases or family vacations, is a deterrent to long-term investments. These data highlight the difficulties in planning for the future and the financial instability of employees, which is especially noticeable among workers with a low level of education ^[21].

Thus, the Monitoring data reflect key aspects of job insecurity and their impact on the social well-being of workers, which requires further analysis and the development of effective policies to improve the labor market situation. In the context of the instability of employment in the Russian labor market, several key forms can be identified, which are determined by specific indicators. Among them:

1. Informal employment, which is characterized by the absence of a formal employment contract;

2. Insufficient wages, which are less than two-thirds of the average in the economy, as well as social insecurity, which is expressed in social isolation (low position on the "welfare ladder");

3. Limitations in medium- and long-term planning, especially related to the inability to invest in real estate for both the employee and his family.

These forms of employment instability were used to classify workers in Russia into three groups, depending on their level of vulnerability in labor relations. The first group includes workers who are in the most unstable situation. This is about 6% of employees who work in the formal sector but do not have a formal employment contract. These workers form the basis of instability in the formal labor sector and represent an example of informal employment within the formal sector ^[11].

The second group consists of workers with high job insecurity. Their share ranges from 50% to 60% of the total number of employees and is characterized by low wages (less than two thirds of the average in the economy) and low levels of social protection, which corresponds to the lowest level on the "welfare ladder". This group often faces non-standard working conditions, such as irregular work schedules, temporary contracts, and general job uncertainty ^[26].

The third group includes employees who have limited opportunities for medium- and long-term planning and investments. These restrictions apply not only to personal financial investments, for example, in real estate, but also to the general prospects for employees and their families. This group accounts for up to 85% of employees, which indicates a high degree of instability in the Russian labor market ^[22]. Thus, the identified groups clearly reflect the extent of employment instability in Russian society, which requires attention from researchers and policy makers at all levels.

Discussion of the results

Comparison with foreign experience shows that in the EU and the USA, mechanisms for the protection of precariously employed workers are used, including an employment insurance system, retraining programs, and flexible forms of social protection ^[32]. Russia still lacks effective mechanisms for regulating unstable forms of employment, which requires a review of government policy in the field of employment and social security.

The following conclusions can be drawn:

1. Job insecurity has a negative impact on the socio-economic situation of workers, increasing the level of social vulnerability.

2. The main forms of job insecurity include informal employment, fixed-term contracts, part-time employment, and fictitious self-employment.

3. Government measures are needed to regulate unstable forms of employment, including strengthening social protection for workers and creating effective mechanisms for monitoring compliance with labor laws.

International experience shows that effective regulation of employment instability is possible through the introduction of comprehensive measures to support workers engaged in non-standard forms of work. Practical recommendations include strengthening state control over compliance with labor legislation in relation to temporary and flexible forms of employment, developing social support programs for workers engaged in unstable forms of work (employment insurance, benefits, retraining), and adapting international experience in regulating employment instability to Russian realities.

Conclusion

An analysis based on data from the Russian Monitoring of the Economic Situation and Employment ^[27] and other sources confirmed the hypothesis of a high level of employment instability, which poses a serious threat to the socio-economic situation of a significant part of workers in Russia ^[13]. All the identified forms of employment instability, including informal labor relations and low levels of social security, are a reality for the Russian labor market. As a result of the study, three main groups of workers were identified, differing in the level of job insecurity.: 1) workers with the highest instability; 2) workers with high instability; 3) workers with peripheral forms of employment instability. The level of instability in Russia ranges from 6% to 85%, which indicates a widespread problem ^[3].

Some indicators of job insecurity have shown a downward trend over the past ten years, indicating a worsening employment situation. At the same time, other indicators remained high, which confirms both the magnitude of the problem and its chronic nature ^[20].

Employment instability should be considered in the context of broader global processes, where it is necessary to find a new balance between the economic and social aspects of labor relations, which implies the need to develop a new employment model for modern society. This is especially important in conditions where the proposed solutions, such as reducing social guarantees, cannot serve as an effective tool to mitigate instability ^[6]. Job insecurity requires comprehensive, systemic efforts, primarily on the part of the State, to overcome all aspects of this problem. An active role of Russian society and the expansion of forms of civil control over government structures are necessary in order to ensure a sustainable and fair solution to this problem ^[15].