Think tanks as a tool of China's foreign policy

Chen' Yuikhun Postgraduate student; Faculty of International Relations; St. Petersburg State University 5/3 Starorusskaya str., Saint Petersburg, Russia, 191144 chenchen2022@mail.ru

Introduction

Analytical centers are one of the most important tools of Chinese public diplomacy today. Zhu Xiufeng believes that globalization, digitalization, as well as changes in the international situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to fundamental changes in the world. In the new conditions, Chinese analytical centers have influence that extends far beyond the country's borders ^{[1, p. 156]}.

According to Wang Wen, think tanks use public diplomacy to spread the Chinese worldview in the international community and strengthen international relations ^{[2, p. 4]}. China today strives for harmonious socio-economic development of the Asia-Pacific region and the world, and analytical centers play an important role in achieving this goal ^{[3, p. 59]}.

Such conditions determine the relevance of studying the activities of the "think tanks" of modern China. However, it should be noted that over the past 15 years, Chinese think tanks have significantly transformed under the influence of foreign policy reasons. The scientific novelty of this study lies in the consistent consideration of the changing role of Chinese analytical centers under the influence of the Belt and Road initiative, as part of the fight against the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and in the process of strengthening friendly relations with partner countries of the PRC in the first half of the 2020s. Analyzing the specifics of these changes, it is possible not only to identify them the main reasons, but also to put forward a hypothesis about the future of analytical structures in public diplomacy of the PRC in the second half of the 2020s.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the role that think tanks play in the implementation of the "soft power" of modern China. To achieve this goal, a chronological method was used to identify the evolution of the role of the PRC's "think tanks" in the country's public diplomacy. The object of this research is Chinese analytical centers. The subject of the study is China's public diplomacy.

The growing importance of analytical centers in China in the 2010s

By the early 2010s, relations between China and the United States continued to heat up, primarily due to the struggle for international influence ^{[4, p. 56]}. China is striving to further modernize its foreign policy instruments, which could strengthen the country's international position through democratic principles and research activities ^{[5, p. 8]}.

Thus, China is beginning a new stage of work on expanding the country's "soft power" capabilities. Within the framework of the results of the 3rd plenum of the 18th CPC Congress in 2013, it is argued that the conditions of the time require the creation of analytical centers, the specifics of which would meet the needs of modern Chinese socialism ^{[6, p. 198]}. Copying the American model of organizing think tanks is considered counterproductive because it does not meet China's socio-economic and ideological goals. In addition, the research directions of Chinese analytical centers, as in many other Asian countries, are determined by the current government, which also distinguishes them from Western analytical institutions ^{[7, p. 41]}. The list of topics studied by China's analytical institutes during the period under review is quite wide: ecology, globalization, legal issues, international relations, and many others ^{[8, p. 22]}. However, the Chinese analytical centers operating in the early 2010s were mostly focused on obtaining results that were of theoretical significance and could not be used to advise government agencies on current foreign policy issues, which led to an urgent government need to reform analytical organizations. In this process, China could not rely on foreign examples, but had to find a way to activate the country's existing research resources.

In November 2013, at the 3rd Plenum of the CPC Central Committee of the 18th convocation, the "Resolution of the CPC Central Committee on some important issues on the comprehensive deepening of reforms" was adopted. The decree states that the construction of a new type of "analytical centers" with Chinese characteristics should become one of the strategic objectives of the state.

These particular examples confirm that the importance of analytical centers was recognized at the state level already in the early 2010s.

One of the main reasons that led to the growing importance of analytical centers in China at this stage was the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, which has been implemented by China since 2013 and which creates land and sea routes in Asia, Europe and Africa. The initiative unites the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century projects, put forward in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping, involving the construction of a number of large-scale "economic corridors" ^{[9, p. 62]}.

The essence of this initiative is to form and promote a new model of international cooperation by strengthening existing regional bilateral and multilateral ties by sponsoring projects for the construction of necessary infrastructure ^{[10, p. 383]}.

The Belt and Road Initiative calls for the creation of a new mechanism for interethnic partnership, strengthening China's economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world, as well as promoting sustainable development ^{[11, p. 2]}.

This project is one of the most important examples of the implementation of public diplomacy in modern China. Multiple institutions of the PRC, including the country's analytical centers, are working together to achieve its goals. At the same time, new analytical structures that influence the PRC's foreign policy strategy continue to be created with state financial support ^{[12, p. 49]}.

One of the most active analytical centers in China of the 21st century is the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY), which was founded on January 19, 2013. Today, the Center employs former Chinese politicians, banking experts and renowned scientists. The Belt and Road initiative, Sino-Russian and Sino-American relations became expert topics in the second half of the 2010s. RDCY also sets one of its main goals to facilitate the opening of new analytical centers.

One of the most influential Chinese think tanks in the 2010s was also the Center for Research on Globalization (CCG). The Center was founded in 2008 in Beijing, but throughout the 2010s, its activities underwent significant adjustments in accordance with the current challenges facing the Chinese government.

The Belt and Road Initiative is an important area of CCG research. On May 18, 2015, CCG announced the establishment of China's first research institute, which focuses on data collection and analytical work necessary to prepare enterprises for potential entry into the international market under this initiative. The institute provides the results of its research to the government, so that the Chinese authorities can effectively regulate current economic policy and support the country's producers in the complex and lengthy process of developing foreign markets.

In April 2015, the China Centre for Contemporary World Studies (CCCWS) established the Belt and Road Think Tank Cooperation Committee, which includes more than 50 Chinese think tanks and research institutes. The Committee provides a platform for the exchange of information and resources between analytical centers, whose activities are aimed at the effective and speedy resolution of the tasks facing the project.

In June 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping made an important judgment about the current international situation, saying that the world is in a state of “great transformation, unprecedented in a century.” According to Xi Jinping, this means serious changes in the international balance of power, which will lead to a fundamental adjustment of the international order.

In 2019, there was a heated discussion among American researchers about policy towards China. Despite the differences in specific formulations, modern Western scholars come to a consensus that some of China's actions pose a "serious challenge" to other countries of the world, undermine Western democratic norms, and are especially a threat to U.S. military superiority in the Western Pacific ^{[13, p. 81]}. During the Obama administration, tensions between the United States and China increased, and under Donald Trump, U.S. policy aimed at curbing China's growing power reached a completely new level ^{[14, p. 30]}.

In addition to its harsh foreign policy, in 2018 the US government unleashed a trade war, putting pressure on Beijing by imposing increased duties ^{[15, p. 119]}.

In 2019, the United States continued to impose sanctions and restrictions on China's technology sector. On May 15, 2019, the U.S. Department of Commerce blacklisted Huawei Technologies and its subsidiaries. These companies were chosen because they are among the largest and most innovative manufacturers in the industry and play a significant role in the innovative development of China as a whole.

Since mid-2019, the focus of the US sanctions policy has also been on small, medium and large companies that belong to such technologically promising areas as artificial intelligence, cloud data and supercomputers. ^{[16, p. 161]}

Under Donald Trump, unprecedented customs duties (more than 20%) were imposed on many Chinese goods, including electronics, pharmaceutical and chemical products, etc.

Despite the defeat of D. Trump in the 2020 elections and the coming to power of J. Trump's team. According to Biden, the policy of customs pressure on China, including in the field of digital technologies, has not changed, which confirms the long-term nature of the technological confrontation.

In such heated foreign policy conditions, the regional and global importance of the Belt and Road Initiative is increasing, which can provide China and other participating countries with the opportunity for stable economic prosperity achieved through mutually beneficial partnerships. Solving the complex tasks of the initiative requires timely and in-depth analysis of a large amount of relevant data. Such activities cannot be fully supported by separate analytical centers, and therefore, in the second half of the 2010s, systemic links were also established between various Chinese think tanks, allowing the exchange of necessary analytical information. For example, the common goal of the participating countries of the initiative led to the creation in 2019 of the International Committee for Cooperation between Analytical Centers within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, whose activities are supported by analytical centers from more than 40 countries around the world.

Think tanks in China during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

During a period of tension between the United States and China, in December 2019, an unknown virus was detected in fluid samples taken from the lungs of a group of pneumonia patients in Wuhan, China. At the end of February 2020, WHO published the report "Social Stigmas associated with COVID-19," which states that stigma arises when people associate infectious diseases with certain social groups.

In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are talking about the stigmatization of certain ethnic groups (Chinese), as well as people suspected of having contact with infected people ^{[17, c. 1957]}. The report also recalls the important role of informed choice of specific formulations. In particular, it is emphasized that the description of COVID-19 as a Wuhan, Chinese or Asian virus can provoke a deterioration in the situation of stigmatized groups. Spreading awareness is a prerequisite for reducing the effects of the pandemic, but such statements in public discourse cannot contribute to achieving this goal ^{[18, p. 14]}.

On September 22, 2020, Donald Trump addressed the UN General Assembly and used the phrase "Chinese virus" again. He demanded that China be held accountable for "unleashing this plague around the world." At the official level, the United States accused China of spreading the pandemic, which, of course, negatively affected China's international image and increased tensions between the two countries ^{[19, p. 220]}.

Faced with the difficult international situation and stigmatization from the United States, China had to take measures to improve its international image and strengthen its influence in the world. Analytical centers have become the socio-political institution entrusted by the Government of the People's Republic of China with the implementation of these state-significant tasks ^{[20, p. 72]}.

In particular, on April 24, 2020, in the context of the COVID-2019 pandemic, the Belt and Road Cooperation Committee held a special forum on "Working together to address public health and safety issues."

On February 14, 2020, at the 56th Munich Security Conference, the CCG organized a dinner on "The Cold War between the United States and China? Chimera and Reality", during which there was a discussion on issues of Sino-American relations.

During the discussion, the bilateral relations between China and the United States were reviewed from the point of view of trade and security, as a result of which this conference became a platform for reducing tensions between the two countries and strengthening ties between Chinese and American dignitaries, experts from international organizations and scientists. Thus, the CCG has become an important link between China and the West.

The importance of analytical centers in the 21st century continues to increase, which is why international ratings are appearing that evaluate the effectiveness of their work. Currently, the most cited and authoritative international ranking is the Go Global Think Tank Index Report (University of Pennsylvania, USA). According to this rating, by the end of 2019, China ranked 3rd in terms of the number of analytical centers in the world (507), behind India (509) and the United States (1,871), dropping by one position compared to 2017 (512). However, as early as 2020, there were 1,413 analytical centers in China, which confirms a sharp increase in their importance for China with the onset of the 2020s, which is largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its international consequences for China.

In 2020, amid the COVID-2019 pandemic and the stigmatization of China by the United States, RDCY published an "Open Letter from 100 Chinese Scientists addressed to US Citizens" in the well-known magazine THE Diplomat. As part of this letter, it was stated that the politicization of the pandemic harms not only the normal development of relations between China and the United States, but also the correct and timely response to the pandemic by the international community.

Also in 2020, CCG organized the Global Dialogue of Prominent Figures Forum, inviting opinion leaders in the field of international politics and economics, well-known scientists and representatives of the political elite. Among them are Thomas Friedman, author of the book "Discworld", Pascal Lamy, former Director General of the World Trade Organization, Angus Deaton, Nobel Prize winner in Economics, and many others. Such a composition of the forum participants drew the attention of Western society to China and its "soft power".

CCG and The Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies (ACCWS)) We jointly initiated the Global Dialogue of Young Leaders (GYLD) project, which created a platform for dialogue between international youth from different countries and regions during the COVID-2019 pandemic. The project was a great success, which became the starting point for intensifying the involvement of young people in discussing acute social issues in modern China and beyond.

On August 9, 2021, RDCY and two other Chinese think tanks jointly released a research report titled "America First"?! The Truth about the US fight against the pandemic" (America Ranked First?! The Truth about America's fight against COVID-19), which revealed the underlying causes of the failure of the US fight against the pandemic, which caused lively discussions among scientists at home and abroad. So, today, analytical centers have become one of the tools for strengthening China's "soft power", which makes it possible to combat external threats to the national image ^{[21, p. 106]}.

In April 2022. The Office of the CPC Central Committee has published a "Plan for the development of philosophy and social Sciences for the 14th Five-Year Plan." The plan says that the measures already taken by the time of 2022 have made it possible to make significant progress in solving the task of creating a new, effective system of Chinese analytical centers. However, work should continue to expand the capabilities of the think tanks, as their potential has not yet been fully realized.

2023 marks the 10th anniversary of President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative. On October 17 and 18, 2023, Beijing hosted the Third Forum of International Cooperation within the framework of this initiative, which was attended by representatives of more than 150 countries and 40 international organizations. The forum's program was extremely rich and focused mainly on economic issues, cooperation between States and global security.

CCG representatives also participated in the forum.: Wang Huiyao, Chairman of the think tank, Miao Lu, Secretary General of the CCG, and Zun Ahmed Khan, one of the CCG researchers.

In honor of this forum, the CCG analytical center also released a report entitled "The Tenth Anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative: a Retrospective, a Look into the Future, and Development Proposals." Based on many years of research in the field of globalization conducted by CCG specialists, 10 points were proposed in this report to expand the actual capabilities of the initiative.

On September 10, 2024, a meeting between young people from China and New Zealand, organized by CCG forces, took place at the Maori Cultural Center in Auckland, New Zealand. The purpose of this event was to promote the rapprochement of Chinese and New Zealand youth to maintain and strengthen traditional friendship. This event is a particular example of Chinese public diplomacy, one of the main directions of which today is to create and maintain an attractive image of China among the population of friendly countries. ^{[22, p. 148]}

Today, the economic confrontation between China and the United States persists, which also significantly affects the state of the global economy as a whole ^{[23, p. 40]}. In 2025, the trade war between the two countries reached a new peak: in particular, in early April of this year, the United States imposed 104% duties on imports of goods from China. So, we can hypothesize that in such a tense economic environment, Chinese think tanks continue to remain relevant and a state-significant institution in the second half of the 2020s.

Conclusion

Today, China's international influence continues to spread both in the Pacific region and beyond. However, at the same time, the world community at its current stage of development is experiencing an era of major political conflicts and fundamental changes. In the 2010s, the activities of China's "think tanks" gradually ceased to be exclusively academic and began to acquire practical significance for the country's foreign policy. Such changes are caused by the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, whose complex tasks require the Chinese government to have a clear understanding of relevant socio-economic processes. During the same period, mechanisms of interaction between various analytical centers are gradually being established, which also contributes to a deeper practical analysis of trends in international and national markets.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made significant adjustments to China's public diplomacy. As a result, the number of analytical centers in the country is growing significantly in 2020. Also, since this period, the activities of Chinese think tanks have been focusing more on creating a favorable international image of the country. By the mid-2020s, this trend still persists: in addition to researching global economic processes and advising authorities on relevant issues, the role of analytical centers today also lies in organizing numerous international events aimed at improving diplomatic relations and bringing the peoples of partner countries closer to Chinese culture.

The strengthening of China's international influence today increasingly relies on the tools of "soft power", and therefore, based on the trends in modern Chinese politics discussed above, we can conclude that due to the ongoing tensions between China and the United States and the need for further implementation of projects within the framework of the Belt and Road, the role of analytical centers in China's foreign policy will only increase in the second half of the 2020s. At the same time, it is expected that the development of analytical institutions will continue to follow the so-called "Asian scenario": the research area of the most influential institutions will continue to be regulated by the authorities, since such an approach has already demonstrated effectiveness in achieving the foreign policy goals of modern China.