The seasonality index, the accounting and registration of extremist crimes

Komarov Anton Anatolevich ORCID: 0000-0002-1330-4236 PhD in Law Associate Professor; Department of Criminal Law and National Security; Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management 630099, Russia, Novosibirsk region, Novosibirsk, Kamenskaya str., 52/1, office 503 reise83@mail.ru Other publications by this author

introduction

It should be noted that in criminology the issue of crime seasonality has been developed for a long time. The first studies of Henri Michel Guerry date back to the first third of the 19th century ^{[1, p.70]}. He studied the spread of property and violent crimes in France depending on the climate and time of year. A little later, Russian criminologists became involved in this problem, among whom Ivan Yakovlevich Foynitsky, Nikolai Evgenievich Tarnovsky and Mikhail Nikolaevich Gernet should be especially highlighted. They also noted that crime can vary depending on the time of year. M. N. Gernet wrote that the difference in the distribution of the total crime volume by month in England, France, Belgium, Germany and Russia is small ^{[2, p.56]}. The results of our research indicate that the more abstract the statistical aggregate is (for example, we are talking about crime in general), the more it reflects the patterns of the accounting and registration discipline. The seasonality index can indicate interesting properties of crime only if phenomena of a much smaller scale are taken: specific types of crime or even certain types of crimes.

Unfortunately, there is not much work in Russian criminology on certain types of crime. After the 19th century, the number of studies on seasonality decreased significantly. Foreign science still pays attention to this issue, but the interpretation of seasonality is carried out within the framework of the "Routine Activity Theory". We do not see this state of affairs as entirely satisfactory, since seasonality on a significant scale is far from evident in all criminal phenomena.

As for the subject of our research, namely extremist crimes, it is necessary to understand the specifics of this type of crime in terms of seasonality. A number of authors are inclined to believe that extremism and terrorism are an integral part of the problem of political crime, since in most cases they are politically motivated ^{[3, p.12; 4, P.9]}. However, it is not necessary to completely identify these phenomena.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From a criminal statistical point of view, it is easier to define extremist activity and political criminality. This is exactly what the legislator did in the law of July 25, 2002 No. 114-FZ "On Countering Extremist activity", listing the articles of the Criminal Code and the Code of Administrative Offenses related to this phenomenon. A similar approach is used in the law of March 6, 2006, No. 35-FZ "On Countering Terrorism", which lists acts describing the objective side and methods of committing certain crimes provided for in the Criminal Code.

The most complete understanding of the scope of acts considered extremist and indirectly recognized as a political crime contains the Instruction of the Prosecutor General's Office of Russia No. 462/11 dated 06/25/2024 "On the introduction of lists of articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation used in the formation of statistical reporting." The problem with the guidelines is that they are adjusted every year, thereby widening or narrowing the boundaries of certain types of crime. It is worth considering the mobility of the criminal law itself. In recent years (2018-2024), about 15 amendments have been made to articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation providing for responsibility for extremism.

In addition, the topic of accounting and registration discipline, especially in relation to extremist crimes, is a sensitive one. A simple comparison of official crime reports reveals "technical errors" in the preparation of monthly summary reports. There are negative values of the absolute increase in the number of registered crimes, although all monthly reports are generated "cumulatively." When calculating the seasonality index for other types of crime over a six-year period, we had no errors when referring to the source data in the reports of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation. And in this case, there are three of them.

In the first case, we are talking about the totality of registered extremist crimes for the period November-December 2024. It could be assumed that adjustments were made at the end of the year, taking into account the recommendations of the prosecution staff responsible for introducing criminal statistics. That is, initially there were distortions when filling out the primary statistical accounting cards, which were corrected as a result of the audit.

In the second case, we are talking about the separate accounting of crimes provided for in art. 205-2 ^of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation in the reports for November-December 2021. Here, a negative difference at the end of the year could only be formed if the wrong qualification was given, which was then changed. Such a practice is quite possible ^{[5, p. 85]}. In this category of criminal cases, there are obvious problems in proving the motive for criminal behavior. And it serves as the basis for classifying a number of ordinary criminal articles as extremist (for example, murder or hooliganism). But in our case, we are talking about a special norm. This is the statistical paradox. Even if the cases were dismissed, these facts could not disappear from the criminal statistics.

The third case from this category (in June-July 2023) is more general. In these months, the number of extremist manifestations registered by criminal statistics has already reached negative values in the middle of the year. From January to June, there were fewer reported crimes than in the previous report from January to May. The first thing that comes to mind is the synchronicity with the semi-annual reporting of law enforcement agencies. However, a slightly different explanation may be given. In June 2023, amendments to the Administrative Code of the Russian Federation (Federal Law No. 231-FZ dated 06/13/2023) came into force, which could affect the practice of distinguishing administrative offenses from certain extremist crimes. On the other hand, the President of the Russian Federation signed Law No. 270-FZ dated 06/24/2023 "On the specifics of criminal liability of persons involved in a special military operation" (hereinafter referred to as SVO), which provides an opportunity for persons with outstanding convictions for minor and moderate crimes to participate in hostilities. However, the question of the participation of extremists and terrorists in their activities was ruled out in most cases. Only some of the extremist groups (Articles 280 ¹ and 280 ², Part 1, Article 207 ³, Article 354, Part 1, Article 282 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) were granted such a right to convicts. However, it should be borne in mind that this is a non-rehabilitating circumstance by its legal nature. And, accordingly, they should not have been excluded from the criminal statistics.

It seems that the annual statistical reporting of law enforcement agencies is formed relatively arbitrarily in Russia. Special attention is paid only to annual summaries of statistical reports. However, we will not dwell on this problem in detail. Our previous work has been published on this issue ^[6].

In studying the patterns of seasonality, there are methodological limitations related to the statistical features of the calculation and movement of total crime. The fact is that the movement of the volume of registered crimes can significantly affect the average statistical indicators, which is the seasonality index. To do this, at least we need to know these volumes. We have presented the movement of the number of crimes registered by criminal statistics over the past 20 years in the form of a columnar cumulative chart shown in Figure No. 1 "Volume chart". It graphically reflects the current trend of dynamic series movement.

Fig. 1. Volume diagram.

As we can see, the maximum value of political crimes (taken together of extremist and terrorist orientation) is about four to five thousand in the last three years. Before that, for another seven years, these values were at the level of three to four thousand. In the last year alone, the number of reported crimes has increased significantly. Therefore, we will have to admit that the main increase is due to terrorist crimes related to the conduct of their activities. The recent commented years associated with its beginning should be attributed to a separate period of the development of political crime.

In the period 2014-2016, the situation was different. The increase was largely due to extremist crimes. In our opinion, this is due to the strengthening and differentiation of criminal liability for them in 2014. However, such changes were ambiguously perceived by the scientific community and were repeatedly criticized ^{[7, p. 245]}. Therefore, in 2018, amendments were made to the Criminal Code related to the humanization of criminal liability against extremists. This can be partially recognized as decriminalization, since now it has become impossible to initiate a criminal case, which gives us a statistical unit if an extremist statement was made by the perpetrator for the first time.

Against the background of the increasing volume of extremist crimes, the situation still looks good from the point of view of criminological trends. The peak in the registration of terrorist crimes occurred in the early 2000s. This is due to the counter-terrorism operation on the territory of the Chechen Republic. Then the problem was much more acute. Today, the structure of political crime is changing. There is an increase in criminally punishable extremism, including politically motivated extremism. Perhaps this was due to the political activity caused by the presidential elections in the Russian Federation and the attempt of some political forces to change the situation in their favor by holding mass unauthorized events. This may indirectly indicate that problems are shifting from the external national security circuit to the internal one. Their own population is discovering more and more contradictions with the current government. Perhaps this is due to the crisis of capitalist relations in the Russian Federation at the current stage, which puts the Russian bourgeois elites at odds with world capital and causes an increase in protest sentiments within society. However, part of this increase can be attributed to criminal statistical casuistry, changes in criminal legislation, which we wrote about above.

The obvious problem of studying the seasonality of extremism and terrorism is the small volume of monthly crimes registered, which reaches only three-digit values. This is not enough to build a proper dynamic range. Any accidental deviation (or misrepresentation) it can give us a strongly biased picture. To increase the chances of getting a meaningful result, we could expand the time range of the study. Usually, criminological investigations use a dynamic range of three years. In our case, we took a period of 72 months for a full-fledged study. A negative consequence of this was the fact that due to the properties of historical variability, the volumes of the types of crime studied were able to change significantly. And the formulas for calculating the seasonality index in criminology do not take into account such changes. Then it is necessary to use a different formula, which is often used in the economy, where the volume of seasonally recorded economic phenomena (for example, sales volumes) can increase every year. The point of this method is to calculate the seasonality by month relative to the average for this year, and then average the values already calculated monthly for a number of previous years. In this case, the dynamic range can be expanded beyond the commonly used 3 years. The mathematical expression of this formula is presented below:

However, as we found out during the calculations, this method also has disadvantages. Any known formulas for calculating seasonality cannot account for the exponential increase in crime. Perhaps this is why A. A. Zhirnov in his work suggests abandoning existing methods and using a multiplicative model that takes into account the seasonality and cyclicity of the phenomenon, expressed in the frequency of the observed trend ^{[8, P.39]}. Considering it the most promising option for organizing criminal statistics, the author underestimates its technical and methodological complexity. During the implementation process, it is necessary to take into account not only the hardware and software capabilities of modern technology, but also the human factor – the person organizing the collection and systematization of primary statistical material. And this is not so smooth in practice. The method is undoubtedly interesting, but premature. Even among the competent scientific community, despite the availability of some factual material in the public domain, there are not many who want to investigate this problem. Today, it will be much more economical to open access to the entire volume of statistical materials available to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Prosecutor General's Office, so that volunteer researchers can participate in this case.

THE RESULTS OF THE STUDY

Figure 2 below shows the movement of monthly volumes of registered political crime in four statistical categories: the movement of monthly volumes of registered crime (Graph 1), monthly volumes of registered extremist crimes (graph 2), monthly volumes of registered terrorist crimes (graph 3), monthly volumes of registered extremist crimes committed through on the global Internet, as well as in orange (on it) – a curved graph of Internet crimes related to the propaganda of terrorism or its justification.

Fig. 2. Monthly charts.

As we can see, the volume of registered acts in the political sphere is increasing. For comparison, you can pay attention to graph 1, which shows the movement of all crime in recent years. The number of registered ordinary crimes is decreasing. A comparison of these data with other graphs, or rather the multidirectional movement of their curves, indicates that we use the above formula quite reasonably.

Judging by the registration of extremist acts, they are more closely linked to the peaks of domestic political activity. For example, the July 2020 peaks are explained by protest actions related to the development and adoption of amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation. The April 2021 highs on the extremist crimes chart are due to the signing and entry into force of Law No. 89-FZ dated 04/05/2021 "On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation", which made it possible for the current President of the Russian Federation to run again in the next elections. On April 21, 2021, mass unauthorized rallies were also held in support of Alexei Navalny (ex. a foreign agent – approx. the author). At the same time, judging by the schedules, the elections to the State Duma (the last ones took place in the fall of 2021) did not have a significant impact on the political situation, as they are not reflected by a significant increase in registration on our schedules. It can be assumed that the population takes the elections to the State Duma less seriously than the presidential elections. This is indicated by public opinion polls conducted by sociological organizations (VTsIOM, Levada Center).

The situation with graph 4 is quite interesting. We observed the highest values of the number of Internet extremism in 2022 (493 units according to Part 2, Article 280 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). According to official statistics, the number of such crimes decreased slightly in subsequent years. (2023 – 367; 2024 – 447). However, this can also be interpreted in such a way that many criminals have moved on from appeals to action. That is, the realization of their criminal intentions in a material form, not a virtual one. This, in particular, was reflected in the excess of the orange registration curve over the blue one on our graph. As well as an increase in the number of registered terrorist crimes.

Turning to the main results of our research, we will present calculations of the seasonality index for certain statistical categories of political crime. So in Figure 3, "The seasonality index of "Street" extremism and terrorism," we have grouped the results of our calculations over a six-year period for extremist crimes into a bar chart, adding a diagram of terrorist crimes. In Figure 4, "The Seasonality Index of virtual Extremism and Terrorism," we have provided a separate bar chart with Internet crimes of a similar nature. Namely, we are talking about the structures provided for in Articles 205-2 and Part ² of Article 280 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, when such acts are committed via the Internet.

3. The index of seasonality of "street" extremism and terrorism.

Based on the diagram shown in Fig.3, it becomes obvious that the peak of criminal activity falls in March-April. However, it can be noted that in early summer there is also a slightly higher registration rate than in the cold season. January and December are marked by the lowest criminal activity due to holidays and vacations. Perhaps the same can be said about July and August. The personality traits of modern extremists are often of a teenage or youth nature ^{[9, p.211]}. And these 2 months fall on long vacations. Therefore, participants in protest moods may be busy with other things. It is also worth noting the situation with October. According to our data, this month is not particularly characterized by criminal activity in relation to all crime. Although October is exceptional in official criminal statistics. It is in it that the largest number of crimes are registered every year. In the case of political crime, this trend is not observed. This property is an additional argument in favor of the fact that it, as a type of crime, has relative independence. Although, mathematically speaking, this feature is formed due to the self-motivated behavior of ordinary criminals, who account for a much greater share in the formation of the statistical population than politically motivated extremists and terrorists. The low proportion of their criminal activity cannot significantly affect the indicators of the seasonality index of all crime.

4. The seasonality index of "virtual" extremism and terrorism.

Regarding crimes of an extremist and terrorist nature committed through the global computer network Internet, it should be noted that they repeat the distribution trends of "street" extremism and terrorism. At the same time, it must be assumed that not all extremist and terrorist crimes can be committed through the Internet. Therefore, the specifics should still be detected. In part, it can be seen in the fact that information and communication technologies are a prerequisite for organizing mass riots or terrorist acts. Therefore, in Fig.4. The peak of registrations has been postponed several weeks or even a month ahead of the previous chart. However, there is no significant decrease in the activity of Internet criminals in key months (for example, April). Because all illegal activities require coordination. The matter is not limited to the preliminary approval of the venues and times of their holding.

DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS

Comparing the results we have obtained with those already available is somewhat complicated by the fact that there are few similar studies. We see the matter this way: in Russian criminology, the problem of seasonality is considered more globally as a component of the issue of determination. If they resort to such calculations at all. Most dissertations dealing with certain types of crime do not have such sections at all. There are not so many general theoretical works of a methodological plan. We can mention the achievements of such criminologists as A. A. Kiselyov, A.A. Zhirnov, S. A. Fomin, S. R. Romanov.

Our foreign colleagues consider seasonality through the prism of factor analysis. But in our country, this condition plays a secondary role in determining crime. In American criminology, statistical distribution is often absolutized as a separate (isolated) factor. The works of V. Minor (1975) led us to similar conclusions^[10] and L. Cohen and M. Felson (1979)^[11]. The latter even marked the beginning of the "Routine Activity Theory". The explanation of criminality here is that the daily activities of individuals are determined by a variety of circumstances, and seasonal ones related to changes in weather, climate, and temperature become the leading ones. However, the priority in investigating these issues does not belong to criminologists at all. Economists, biologists, physicians, agricultural workers, and logisticians are most interested in developing the method. It is in these areas that cyclicity is observed, as a necessary property for isolating the seasonality index.

Obviously, not all criminal phenomena have this property. There are, of course, a couple of textbook examples. So, S. A. Fomin writes that there are explicable particular patterns of the formation of seasonality: theft of fur hats in winter, theft from household plots in autumn, etc. However, he also notes that there is no solid logical basis for a number of observed indicators of crime seasonality. More recent works mention the seasonal dependence of reckless crime, in terms of road traffic crimes ^{[12, P.79]}, a number of property crimes ^{[13, P.139]}, violent crimes, tax crime ^{[14, P.134]} and economic crime in general ^{[15, P.129]}. But we have almost no actual data on the issue of political criminality. One can mention V. V. Luneev, who considered seasonal fluctuations in political crime in the context of global trends and pointed to an increase in extremist activity during periods of political instability ^{[16, P.339]}. However, we are not talking about complete cyclicity in this case. Rather, a set of rules for organizing the political life of our society creates the necessary conditions for the commission of terrorist and extremist crimes. This is partly confirmed by the results we have obtained related to the electoral processes. But these seasonal phenomena themselves are social phenomena, not natural ones. They cannot be a direct consequence of changes in the seasons, climate, or weather conditions. Going deeper, it turns out that most of the criminal phenomena in which seasonality is allegedly observed are caused by such man-made circumstances, and not by natural ones at all. Hence the low research interest in the problem in Russian criminology.

At the same time, we cannot deny the cyclical nature of political crime in general. In the context of global trends, we find P. Simi's study "Cycles of right-wing terror in the United States" interesting ^[17]. But in fact, his conclusions relate not to seasonal, but to dynamic changes in a number of analyzed years.

The estimates of L. Dugan, G. Lafrey, and A. Picuero related to the hijacking of an aircraft and the state of air transportation at a particular time of the year (tourist season) ^[18] seem fair. However, as a critical remark, it should be noted here that there are relatively few hijackings of aircraft in statistical terms. Therefore, it is not possible to link them firmly to a specific time of the year by a connection of states. The statements of V. Enders and T. Sandler about the seasonality of terrorism sound more reasonable ^{[19, P. 98]}. According to their observations, the peak of terrorist criminal activity occurs in the summer (June-August). This is especially noticeable in tourism-oriented countries (for example, Egypt and Turkey). In countries with cold climates (Russia, Canada), the minimum number of terrorist attacks is recorded in winter. This is due to the reduced mobility of potential victims. Our data also supports this hypothesis. In regions with a temperate climate (for example, Western Europe), the winter recession is less pronounced, but still noticeable. Perhaps the main disadvantage of the hypothesis is the authors' belief that the commission of terrorist acts is based on purely rational assumptions in thinking. Their approach to the study of the issue itself boils down to the economic theory of crime. Therefore, they use methods typical of economics, which is not entirely justified. Terrorist activity is not the same as entrepreneurial activity. And terrorism is not an economic phenomenon in its essence. This is clearly demonstrated by the work of S. N. Fridinsky ^{[4, P.9]}, where the author highlights economic extremism along with its other forms due to a different, non-economic motivation. Moreover, there are points of view in Russian literature according to which extremism is an ideological phenomenon ^{[20, p.14]}, or even subcultural alienation ^{[21, P.12]}. These circumstances indicate a possible dependence of the state of seasonality on the structure of political crime. In Figure 5, we have presented a clear picture of such a structural dependence of the results of foreign and domestic research on the seasonality of political crime. We believe it is appropriate to note that the issue of studying seasonality requires further differentiation of scientific knowledge and deepening of research in terms of calculations. By themselves, the dependencies we have obtained can only indicate the general patterns of development of the accounting and registration discipline.

Fig.5. Key research directions.

It is worth admitting that comparing the indices of seasonality of political crime in different countries is a difficult task for criminologists. For statistical analysis of seasonality, many details and cycles of political activity will have to be taken into account, related to the regional features of the electoral system, the form of government, and the political regime.

conclusions

As a result of the work we have done, we have come to the following conclusions:

1. The criminal statistics approach is still crucial in understanding criminal phenomena such as extremism and terrorism. Despite a number of available works on political crime in modern Russian and foreign criminology, other (non-statistical) methods of definition encounter the vagueness of the motives of criminal activity, which affects the stability of criminal law norms.

2. When extracting statistical material for studying extremism and terrorism in Russia, difficulties arise in ensuring the reliability of the source data. It is only when it is necessary to refer to monthly reports on the state of crime that these errors are revealed, despite the fact that most researchers use only annual data in their research and do not pay attention to the ways they are generated.

3. The volume of terrorist and extremist crimes (as well as political crimes) is increasing in absolute terms against the background of a decrease in the crime rate in our country. This negative criminal trend is caused by the growth of internal contradictions with the current bourgeois government and the development of capitalist (imperialist in nature) relations. This may indicate that problems are shifting from the external national security circuit to the internal one.

4. From a methodological point of view, it is important to move away from the application of generally accepted formulas for calculating the seasonality index, as they have disadvantages. In particular, the current calculation method is not able to take into account the progressive change in crime rates, and all known formulas are not able to cover the exponential growth of crime. Consequently, criminological research in the methodological field should be continued here.

5. Seasonal calculations should be differentiated depending on the type of criminal activity. The patterns revealed by a monthly comparison of the total volume of crime indicate to a greater extent the peculiarities of the national accounting and registration discipline. We have constructed four graphs of dynamics taking into account seasonality and two diagrams of the seasonality index according to the categories available in criminal statistics. However, this structural differentiation also proved to be insufficient. It is necessary to use criminological criteria for summarizing and grouping primary statistical data on the state of political crime in order to obtain more accurate results. This knowledge can be used to improve the techniques of modern criminal statistics.

6. A comparison of our results with those of our foreign colleagues has shown that the seasonality of terrorism has more in common in international comparison than extremist crimes. The answer to this question lies in the field of motivation. Modern extremist crimes, at least in the Russian Federation, have more political motivation than others. Terrorist crimes committed in Russia have a more religious and possibly ethnic motivation.