
	National Security Reference: Shagieva A.Kh. Mathematical modeling in crisis management // National Security. 2015. № 3. P. 349-358. URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=66585 Shagieva A.Kh. Mathematical modeling in crisis management Abstract: The subject of this research is the system of mathematical modeling of the processes under the conditions of crisis management. Analysis of modern approaches towards solution of the problem of crisis management within enterprises demonstrates that they are based on financial analysis and bankruptcy forecasting using comparison of certain coefficients with the up-to-date values and state the fact of a presence of a final crisis state – bankruptcy. Mathematical modeling provides for a high level of justification of decisions, reduction of time needed to develop solutions, and the ability to deploy countermeasures in order to prevent bankruptcy. The author presents a mathematical model for forecasting crisis within a company based on its financial results. The devised complex of models will allow forecasting the start and development of a crises within a business based on an optimal assortment, structure and volume of products. The use of mathematical modeling and forecasting within the system of crisis management would allow managers and company executives to concretize the methods for preventing, neutralizing, and overcoming the crises. Keywords: Management, Crisis, Modeling, Forecasting, Bankruptcy, Analysis, Business, Assortment, Product line, Financial results This article can be downloaded freely in PDF format for reading. Download article References 1. Valinurova L.S. Printsipy i zakonomernosti razvitiya innovatsionnykh protsessov v regione // Innovatsii i investitsii, 2010, №3, s.12-17. 2. Zakharov V.Ya. Antikrizisnyy menedzhment: strategii razvitiya promyshlennykh predpriyatiy v Rossii // Innovatsii, 2006, №5, s.80-81. 3. Babkina A.V. Obosnovanie meropriyatiy antikrizisnoy programmy v molochnom skotovodstve // Ekonomika sel'skogo khozyaystva Rossii, 2011, № 2, s. 50–54. 4. Dontsova L.V. Nikiforova N.A. Analiz finansovoy otchetnosti: praktikum. 2–e izd. – M.: Delo i Servis, 2009. – 144 s. 5. Modelirovaniya ob'ema prodazh i antikrizisnogo upravleniya predpriyatiem / D.V. Kuramshin // Intellektual'nye sistemy obrabotki informatsii i upravleniya: sb. statey reg. zimn. shk.–sem. aspirantov i molodykh uchenykh. Ufa Tekhnologiya, 2006. T.1. C. 100 – 105. 6. Petukhov D. V. Antikrizisnoe upravlenie / D. V. Petukhov. – M.: MIEMP, 2010. – 134 s. 7. Solov'eva S.V. Rossiyskiy variant finansovo–ekonomicheskogo krizisa i nekotorye teoreticheskie razrabotki uchenykh–ekonomistov // Sb. nauch. trudov «Teoriya i praktika institutsional'nykh preobrazovaniy v Rossii». Vypusk № 18. / Pod red. d.e.n. prof. B.A. Ernzkyana – M.: TsEMI RAN, 2010. – S. 1–6. 8. Yur'eva T. V. Antikrizisnoe upravlenie: skhemy i opredeleniya: ucheb. posobie / T. V. Yur'eva. – M.: NITs Infra–M, 2012. – 136 s. 9. Kiselev S.V., Shagieva A.K. Methodological Aspects of Assessment of the Anti-Crisis Management Institutional System // Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 18 (3): 359-363, 2013.

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Shagieva A.Kh. Mathematical modeling in crisis management