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Bolkunov, O.N. Quantitative dimension of the international energy security

Abstract: The article is devoted to the development of methodology for the quantitative dimension of the international security of energy supply. It is noted that in order to accurately evaluate energy security of the state, its energy system should be equally evaluated from the various perspectives (economic, political, social, environmental, national security, international obligations and treaties), including an entire complex of its components. Energy security evaluation should characterize the quality of the national energy policy. The article contains analysis of the characteristic features which such an evaluation should possess. The author singles out the key methods for the quantitative dimension of the energy security of the state as well as their strong and weak points. Based upon the above-mentioned analysis the method for the complex evaluation of international energy security (CEIES) was formed. Evaluation includes 21 indicators of energy security in 4 interrelated dimensions: economic, technological, socialpolitical and environmental. In addition to the description of the method the article includes comparative analysis of the key quantitative methods for the energy security evaluation with the specific features of CEIES being pointed out. For example, CEIES serves as an useful indicator for the general condition of all of the spheres of energy security within the state. Based on it one can provide retrospective analysis of implementation of measures aimed to guarantee energy security of the state, as well as predict the efficiency of implementation of current and newly developed energy strategies. Additionally, such an evaluation allows to compare the levels of energy security in different sates and to modify the national energy strategies based on the analysis of successful practices. Finally, based upon the data on energy security in the neighboring states, one may ease the conditions for regional and international energy cooperation.


Keywords:

security guarantees, energy strategy, national security, energy system, comparative political science, energy policy, quantitative studies, energy security, state administration, international politics.


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