Abstract: The subject of the research is the analysis of the production output volume when the tax burden is changed, the case study is the automobile industry. The author of the article analyzes the production output volume of leading automobile industries. The measures of financial support offered by the author encourage the development of industries that implement the production base modernization strategy using the renovation or reconstruction of the main funds, purchase of technologies and funding of researches. These measures may allow to achieve synergetic effects especially if the equipment is purcased by domestic producers. The research methods used by the author include comparison and analysis of qualitative and quantitative data obtained during analysis of the dynamics of aforesaid indicators. The author offers the method of predicting the production output volume when the tax burden is changed based on stress testing, and try out the method in the automobile industry. The perdiction of the automobile industry development dynamics allows to receive information about possible changes and prospects of industrial enterprises depending on various factors beforehand.