Transformation of the foreign policy course of the Russian Federation in Central Asia (2016–2023): the Ukrainian crisis as a factor in the differentiation of the region into an independent civilizational space

Burkov Artem Dmitrievich ORCID: 0000-0001-5246-4147 lecturer; Department of Production and Music Education; Kozma Minin Nizhny Novgorod State Pedagogical University Postgraduate student; Institute of International Relations and World History; N. I. Lobachevsky National Research Nizhny Novgorod State University 23 Lunacharsky St., Kanavinsky district, Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod Region, 603002, Russia aardmi@mail.ru

Introduction

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian region has been and remains one of the most conflict-prone in the post-Soviet space. Difficulties with the delimitation of state borders, the resulting territorial disputes and border conflicts, the factor of limited water resources and the rapidly growing young population form a whole complex of processes that destabilize the political, economic and social situation in the region ^{[1, 2]}. The Russian Federation, historically the largest partner for the countries of Central Asia, for a long time did not have a pronounced However, the crisis in Ukraine, the acute phase of which began in 2022, contributed to a change in the nature and scope of Russian interaction with the Central Asian republics and transformed its position in the priorities of the Russian foreign policy doctrine. The relevance of this research, therefore, is due to the need for a systematic understanding of the mechanisms of evolution of the foreign policy course of the Russian Federation in the context of the transformation of the global political system.

The object of the research is the foreign policy of the Russian Federation in the Central Asian region.

The subject of the study is the change in the doctrinal foundations and practical mechanisms of the Russian Federation's foreign policy towards Central Asian countries in 2016-2023 in the context of the Ukrainian crisis.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the evolution of the Russian Federation's foreign policy towards the Central Asian states in the period 2016-2023 and to reveal the transformative impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the doctrinal foundations, practical mechanisms for implementing Russian foreign policy and the dynamics of Russian-Central Asian cooperation.

The methodological basis of the study is a comparative analysis of doctrinal documents (used to compare the wording, degree of detail and assessment of changes in the status of the Central Asian region in the Foreign Policy Concepts of the Russian Federation in 2016 and 2023) and a method of descriptive referencing and qualitative analysis of primary sources (transcripts of the Russia–Central Asia summit, speeches by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, intergovernmental agreements and statistical data). This toolkit allows us to form an evidence base confirming the transition from a declarative strategy to the practical implementation of a foreign policy course.

Existing research on the topic can be divided into two main groups. The first group (Batyaev R. A., 2024 ^[3] and others) focuses on a comparative analysis of the Concepts of 2016 and 2023. In particular, R. A. Batyaev conducts a detailed comparison of linguistic and semantic elements of documents, noting the transition from the formal legal style of 2016 to a more expressive one in 2023, bringing regional priorities (with an emphasis on the "near abroad" and the Eurasian continent) to the fore, as well as tougher rhetoric regarding threats from countries. The West.

The second group of studies (Babaev K. V., 2024 ^[4]; Belashchenko D. A., 2024-2025 ^[5]; Kalakutsky A.V., 2025 ^[6] and others) is devoted to a detailed analysis of the political and economic consequences of the Ukrainian crisis for Russia and the countries of Central Asia. Thus, K. V. Babayev explores the idea of "Greater Eurasia" in the context of the economic "turn to the East", emphasizing the role of the countries of the region in linking the EAEU and the Chinese initiative "One Belt– One Road" after 2022. The research by D. A. Belashchenko and co-authors analyzes the transformation of the foreign policy line of the "five" Central Asian states: special attention is paid to their desire to maintain neutrality, the possibilities of diversifying ties and prospects for regional consolidation in times of crisis. A.V. Kalakutsky examines the evolution of the role of the CIS in the Russian doctrine in the Central Asian direction, stating the transformation of the Commonwealth from a universal integration platform to a communicative- A diplomatic mechanism for multilateral dialogue.

A common limitation of these works is their inherent fragmentation: the authors consider separately doctrinal documents, economic or political perspectives of interaction, or focus on specific diplomatic events in the region. At the same time, the analysis of the evolution of the Russian foreign policy course as an integral process in the context of the crisis remains outside the scope of their attention: from a generalized approach within the CIS in 2016 to the allocation of the region as an independent direction in 2023.

The scientific novelty of the study, therefore, lies in a systematic understanding of the evolution of the Russian Federation's foreign policy course in Central Asia (2016-2023), which makes it possible to overcome the fragmentation of existing approaches. The paper considers the Ukrainian crisis as a direct catalyst for the transformation of the regional direction of foreign policy.

In particular, a strategic shift has been traced at the doctrinal level: from a generalized, undifferentiated approach within the framework of the "CIS member states" (Concept 2016) to the consolidation of Central Asia as an independent political and economic community (Concept 2023).

In addition, the paradoxical effect of external sanctions pressure on the system of Russian-Central Asian relations has been revealed. It is shown that despite the risks of the destructive effects of secondary economic shocks (currency devaluation, disruption of logistics chains), the forced intensification of the "turn to the East" contributed to the expansion of practical cooperation. The high adaptability of multilateral integration mechanisms (EAEU, SCO) has been demonstrated: It ensured the preservation of existing ties and made it possible to quickly explore new niches (parallel imports, settlements in national currencies, import substitution programs). As a result, the conclusion is substantiated that the strategy of "turning to the East" has been transformed from a declarative construct into a consistent policy aimed at forming a single civilizational space.

Concept 2016: the general nature of priorities in the Central Asian region

It should be noted that the course of the Russian Federation towards the Central Asian region has undergone significant changes in its historical development since the beginning of the political crisis in Ukraine, however, the first doctrinal documents fixing new strategic objectives and directions of foreign policy after the events of 2014 were published and approved only in 2016. To study the evolution of Russia's foreign policy, we are interested in the "Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation" dated November 30, 2016 (Decree of the President of the Russian Federation approving the Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation // Official Internet Portal of Legal Information. URL: http://pravo.gov.ru/proxy/ips/?docbody=&nd=102416644 (date of application: 02/18/2026)), which at that time was regulated by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation "On measures to implement the foreign policy course of the Russian Federation" (05/07/2012).

This Decree contained the main provisions on the foreign policy goals of the Russian Federation and the methods of achieving them. The provision on the development of diverse cooperation with the CIS countries in all areas of interstate cooperation is of interest – this vector was designated as a key one. To implement it, the task was to "deepen Eurasian integration" within the framework of the Customs Union and the Single Economic Space, with the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union by January 2015. The task of strengthening the CSTO and improving its mechanisms for a timely response to emerging threats was also put forward. It was also proposed to deepen equal trust-based partnership and strategic cooperation with the Central Asian states.

The concept of the Russian Federation's foreign policy, published in 2016, in turn, complemented and specified these points, presenting them as an element of Russia's system of views on international affairs.

In this document, the Russian Federation stated its intention to become one of the centers of the modern world, for which it was proposed to use the opportunities provided by international and regional organizations. The impossibility of separate development was stated: the future of Russia in the document was inextricably linked with the future of other states, and, first of all, the Eurasian ones. International peace and universal security were proclaimed as the priority goals of foreign policy, and relations with neighboring States were proposed to be developed in the spirit of good neighborliness, jointly contributing to the settlement of internal and international conflicts. The task also included the need to protect compatriots and strengthen the role of the Russian Federation in the humanitarian space, for which it was proposed to spread and strengthen the position of the Russian language, popularize culture and historical heritage, Russian education and science. The need to consolidate the Russian diaspora and strengthen the position of the Russian media in the global information space was noted. The main mechanism for implementing policy in this vector was the dialogue of cultures and civilizations, including with the states of the Islamic world.

The volatility of international relations in the mid-2010s was noted, as well as the steady growth of all types of threats to international security. The contours of the transition of the world political system from unipolar to multipolar were outlined. The unevenness of global development was called one of the main sources of the emergence and aggravation of international contradictions, aggravated by the desire of individual states to force their system of values and views on others. The document identified the fight against emerging problems by ensuring the well-being of the population of States and gradually improving the quality of human capital as an important issue of world politics. An important feature of Russia's approach to international affairs stated in the 2016 Concept was its special attention to the spiritual and moral principles of interstate relations instead of ideological ones. It was assumed that this would allow a multidimensional dialogue of cultures to begin and overcome intercivilizational rifts and contradictions.

A separate chapter was devoted to the formation of a stable and fair world system. In addition to the leading role of the United Nations in international relations, the growing importance of collective leadership was noted – and the SCO as one of the key platforms for its full development. It was noted that only with the rule of law in international relations is it possible to build a stable global community. Unilateral restrictive measures in the economy were condemned, and emphasis was placed on the need to coordinate all international sanctions at the UN venues with the procedural role of the member states of the Security Council. The sustainable socio-economic development of the world's States was considered as the foundation of a shock-resistant international system.

Finally, in the chapter on regional foreign policy priorities, the development of multilateral cooperation with the CIS member states and the further deepening of integration processes with Russian participation were identified as the most significant areas. The Eurasian Economic Union was designated as a structure created on the basis of universal integration principles and designed to ensure the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labor resources through joint investment and infrastructure projects. In addition, emphasis was placed on the EAEU's ability to play a harmonizing role in the integration processes of Eurasia as a whole, which should be regarded as Russia's willingness to assist in the inclusion of the EAEU in Greater Eurasian Cooperation. In the Concept, the CSTO was considered as one of the most important elements of the security system in the post-Soviet space. The intention was to further develop the CSTO qualitatively, with its subsequent transformation into a multifunctional international organization capable of countering all modern threats to national and international security. The SCO was designated in the Concept as the main platform in the Central Asian region, thanks to which mutual trust and interstate partnership were strengthened. In the document, the EAEU and the SCO were considered as complementary organizations, thanks to which it became possible to build a single economic space and a collective security architecture in the Eurasian space. In general, the view of these organizations in the 2016 Concept anticipated the trends that these organizations would face in the next decade ^[7].

As can be seen from these excerpts, as of 2016, the course in the Central Asian region was formed very briefly. The only two regional states mentioned in the document were Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and the context of their mention was directly related to international platforms– mainly the EAEU. There was a lack of a specific action plan for the States of the region on a bilateral basis, since the image of interactions is described mainly through the general category of "CIS member countries". The absence of any differentiation between the West and the East of the CIS in the stated intentions, as well as the general lack of representation of the Central Asian states in the document (in comparison, for example, with Georgia and Ukraine, to which separate paragraphs are devoted) suggest that no specific foreign policy course had been developed in the region at the time of 2016.. This is confirmed by the specifics of the efforts undertaken by Russia at that time, which could not be fully described as purposeful and comprehensive ^[8].

Concept-2023: the allocation of an independent direction

Let us now consider the provisions presented in the Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation in its current version dated March 31, 2023 (The Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation // Website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. URL: https://www.mid.ru/ru/detail-material-page/1860586 / (date of access: 02/18/2026)).

As before, the growth of the geopolitical weight of new centers of global development is claimed as a key trend in global development. An important element of the new system of international relations is the preservation of cultural and civilizational identity and equal development opportunities for all States of the world, regardless of any of their characteristics. The main threat to the natural trend of historical development and international security is the desire of individual states to maintain their positions through the support of an outdated non-equilibrium model of world development. In response to the reactionary actions of unfriendly states, the Concept proposes the activation of mechanisms for economic integration and multi-vector interaction on the part of countries under external pressure. If in the previous version of the document international integration was considered as one of the ways to establish a multipolar world, then in this one it begins to appear as the most effective and, no less importantly, a necessary step to neutralize threats and build a more just world order. The rejection of hegemony in international affairs is fixed as one of the leading principles of the emerging system of international relations.

One of the goals set in the Concept is to facilitate the adaptation of the world order to the realities of a multipolar world. Within the framework of this goal, a task is proposed to strengthen the role and authority of integration associations and cooperation forums, among which the SCO, the CIS, the EAEU and the CSTO stand out. It is noted that it is necessary to promote regional and interregional economic integration processes that meet the national interests of the Russian Federation on the basis of these organizations, including for realizing the transit potential of a unique geographical location. Russia's intention to pay attention to strengthening cooperation with neighboring countries in the migration sphere is being voiced. There is a need to intensify Russia's cooperation with its allies and partners. It is allowed to provide support to allies and partners in ensuring defense and security when external forces interfere in their internal affairs.

Separately, the Concept describes the strategy of the Russian Federation's actions in the international humanitarian space. There are points about work to strengthen the image of Russia "as a state attractive for life, work, study and tourism" and the creation of a single humanitarian space on the territory of the CIS member states. Attention is paid to the mechanisms of public diplomacy. Additionally, it is proposed to continue work on the formation of a common information space between Russia and the CIS member states. These points are interesting because they doctrinally capture the cultural aspect of "soft power" as an integration tool, which is especially important for the Central Asian region, which has strong historical and cultural ties with the Russian Federation. It should be noted that this approach is pluralistic – instead of traditional Western cultural hegemonism, it is a dialogue of different cultures and faiths on common historical grounds that is proposed.

Finally, in the regional directions of foreign policy, two macro–regions related to Central Asia are fixed - in the document they are designated as the "near abroad" and the "Eurasian continent". They represent a Small and Large Eurasian Partnership. The highest priority in relations with neighboring States is to ensure regional stability, which is planned to be implemented through the suppression of attempts at external interference. There is an awareness of Russia's key role in maintaining order in Central Asia, which is conditioned by the resource, economic and military potential of the state. The point about deepening integration processes that meet Russian interests remains and, most importantly, in the context of the evolution of the foreign policy course, is specified by the provision on the need to develop "interaction between Russia and the states of the Central Asian region." This indicates an awareness of the importance of this geostrategic trend and suggests that it was fixed at the doctrinal level as a separate political and economic community from the post-Soviet space. It is also interesting that one of the goals of regional integration is to create unity not only in the economic, but also in the political space in the long term.

In the paragraph on Eurasia as a whole, a special place, as before, is given to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as one of the main (along with the CSTO) mechanisms for ensuring security on the continent. It is proposed to improve the organization's mechanisms for its actualization in new geopolitical conditions, as well as to work on combining the integration potentials of the EAEU and the SCO with the prospect of including other organizations. Infrastructural interconnectedness continues to be an important point in Eurasian cooperation, which is proposed to be developed through the participation of all parties in the EAEU infrastructure development plans and the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.

Thus, we see that the Foreign Policy Concept of 2023 has recorded significant changes in key provisions that directly affect the Central Asian region. Although the specific list of measures is limited, similarly to the previous version, to the development of cooperation on international platforms, the very appearance of a separate Central Asian region in the document is noteworthy because it indicates a gradual shift of attention to this area due to the further development and progressive deepening of the policy of the Russian "turn to the East" related to the events of the political crisis in Ukraine.

Official rhetoric and multilateral formats of interaction

Let us now consider the main conceptual categories used by the official representatives of the Russian Federation in relation to the States of the Central Asian region. The most revealing source in this regard should be considered the speech of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on May 5, 2022, dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and the countries of Central Asia (Sergey Lavrov: Russia – Central Asia. 30 years on the path of friendship and cooperation // Rossiyskaya gazeta. – URL: https://rg.ru/2022/05/05/sergej-lavrov-rossiia-centralnaia-aziia-30-let-na-puti-druzhby-i-sotrudnichestva.html (date of access: 02/18/2026)). In his introduction, the Minister drew attention to the desire of all sides for peaceful and fruitful coexistence, noted the presence of contacts at the level of domestic departments. The first part of the Minister's speech was mainly devoted to reviewing the work done by the States in planning and implementing joint investment projects in all areas. The depth of the cultural dialogue was also highlighted, and the contribution of Russian educational institutions to the development of human capital in Central Asian countries was positively assessed. Sergey Lavrov further drew attention to the results of the work of the CIS, the CSTO and the SCO, in particular, the participation of the CSTO peacekeeping forces in the operation to protect critical facilities in Kazakhstan in January 2022. A willingness was expressed to promote intraregional integration of the Central Asian States. In conclusion, the Minister positively assessed the mutual aspirations of the countries of the region and expressed readiness to continue and deepen existing initiatives.

The first ever Russia–Central Asia Summit, held on October 14, 2022 in Astana, became an exciting collective event directly affecting issues of cooperation between Russia and the countries of the region. This event is noteworthy because, apart from Russia, the heads of all states of the region took part in it – the exchange of views took place at the highest possible level.

Let's get acquainted with the transcript of the event (Russia–Central Asia Summit // The website of the President of Russia. URL: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69598 (date of access: 02/18/2026)).

Vladimir Putin, having previously expressed gratitude to his visiting colleagues, in his opening speech touched upon issues of interstate cooperation in a number of areas, most notably import substitution, logistics chains, economic sustainability, and the transition of states to regional mechanisms for commodity exchange and banking settlements. The energy agenda was highlighted separately. Along with the mention of traditional investments in nuclear, gas and hydropower, Russia's willingness to help rebuild the Central Asian unified energy system destroyed after the collapse of the Soviet Union was expressed.

In addition to energy issues, in his speech, Vladimir Putin also touched upon cooperation in the field of healthcare and epidemiological security, the development of information technologies in the states of the region ("smart city" and "digital government"), as well as issues of anti-terrorist security in connection with the complication of the situation in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US military contingent.

Other parties focused mainly on those issues that most affected their national interests. So, the head of Kazakhstan K.-J. K. Tokayev particularly noted the need to develop the transit potential of the region and supported the expansion of regional trade, expressing confidence in the importance of cultural and humanitarian aspects of interstate relations in the region; Kyrgyz President Sergei Japarov emphasized the importance of taking into account the interests of all states in the region, criticizing, probably, the opposition to the implementation of Kyrgyz national projects from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Tajik leader Emomali Rahmon, in turn, expressed concern about the situation near the border with Afghanistan and called on all parties to intensify efforts to eliminate regional security threats.

Following the summit, a Joint statement was adopted in which the parties stated their intentions and the immediate prospects for joint work. In addition to what has already been announced, the parties also agreed to stimulate entrepreneurial activity, switch to national currencies in interstate settlements and work on cooperation between subjects and regions of the states.

It should be noted that the issue of the unity of the energy system was indeed one of the most critical for regional stability in the period 2016-2023, since the cornerstone of interstate conflicts in the region has traditionally been the sharing of water resources. Rivers in Central Asia are used for two main purposes – irrigation of cultivated areas and generation of electricity at hydroelectric power plants. The sources of most rivers lie in the mountainous part of the region, where the main part of the water flow is also formed. Thus, the Syrdarya River at its source is fed by the waters of the Karadarya and Naryn rivers, which flow mainly through Kyrgyzstan, while the Amudarya River originates from the confluence of the Panj and Vakhsh rivers, which pass through Tajikistan. The implementation of large hydropower projects in these countries can lead to a decrease in the volume of water in the two largest economic rivers in the region, which can cause irreparable damage to the economies of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan located downstream. In particular, it was precisely because of the use of water resources that diplomatic and border conflicts between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan arose throughout the post-Soviet period ^[9]. Russia's active participation in the mediation of regional conflicts and the expansion of investments in the energy sector of Central Asian countries, thus, was designed to exclude one of the main conflict-causing factors from interstate relations, which should have a positive impact on both economic development and the integration dynamics of the region ^[10].

Historically, the energy dimension was one of the most ambitious on the part of Russia during this period. Thus, one of the largest projects in the energy sector was the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Central Asia in the Jizzakh region of Uzbekistan (since the shutdown of the fast neutron nuclear plant in Aktau, Kazakhstan, on April 22, 1999), the regulatory framework for which was an intergovernmental agreement with Russia (Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Uzbekistan on cooperation in the construction of a nuclear power plant in the Republic of Uzbekistan dated September 7, 2018 // Official Internet portal of legal Information. URL: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/0001201812210061 (date of access: 02/18/2026)). The Russian state corporation Rosatom assumed a key role in the implementation of the project. Investments by Russian oil and gas companies turned out to be significant during this period: for example, PJSC LUKOIL implemented projects worth about $8 billion in Uzbekistan alone by 2022 (LUKOIL in Uzbekistan: strategic Partnership // Official website of LUKOIL International. URL: https://lukoil-international.uz/ru/PressCenter/News/News?rid=553218 (date of access: 02/18/2026)). Modernization of Ekibastuz GRES-2 continued in Kazakhstan with the participation of the Russian Inter RAO – Export (Russia is modernizing... // Kursiv Media. URL: https://kz.kursiv.media/2023-12-26/zhnb-gres2russiasamruk / (date of access: 02/18/2026)).

Thus, in 2016-2023, Russian-Central Asian cooperation began to rely in its most significant manifestations on technological cooperation designed to ensure the energy security of the region ^[11]. The settlement of this factor in matters of international relations in Central Asia was able to ensure the maximum contribution to the stability of the region.

Economic cooperation as a basis for regional integration

Based on the results of reviewing doctrinal documents, speeches by state representatives, and monitoring specific steps in the field of interstate cooperation, we see that Russia's involvement in multilateral integration mechanisms in Central Asia has steadily increased since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine. The sharp increase in the number and depth of contacts is indicative, as well as the steady expansion of cooperation in the social, economic and humanitarian spheres.

An important feature of Russia's approach to international affairs in Central Asia turned out to be its special attention to multilateral participation in joint projects: the vast majority of projects were implemented precisely within the framework of a systematic approach to regional investments and involved several parties at once. Although this approach has costs in the form of lack of flexibility, limited coverage and the need for lengthy coordination with the participation of departments of different states, it was in the Central Asian region that it was able to demonstrate the most significant result: cultural and historical community ensured the proper degree of dynamics and benevolence of interstate contacts ^[12]; Russia's participation as an economic and political guarantor project implementation made it possible to attract the necessary number of financial, labor and administrative resources for large-scale projects; finally, it was through systematic interaction without isolating individual parties that the optimal balance of interests for the region was achieved ^[13].

It should also be noted that the presence of the Russian Federation in the investment profile of the Central Asian states is very significant in terms of volume during this period. Numerous projects in all areas of international cooperation have been implemented on the basis of bilateral agreements. As of the beginning of 2023, over 2,300 joint ventures were operating in Uzbekistan alone. The key, as mentioned above, was the role of the Russian Federation in the construction and maintenance of energy facilities such as hydroelectric power plants and nuclear power plants.

The humanitarian dimension and the tools of "soft power"

Demographic and socio-cultural ties were an equally important factor in regional integration. Russia remained the largest employer for immigrants from Central Asian countries: as of 2020, before the pandemic, the total volume of remittances to Central Asian countries from Russia amounted to tens of billions of dollars; as a percentage of gross domestic product, remittances from migrant workers accounted for 31% in Kyrgyzstan, 26.7% in Tajikistan and 11.6% in Uzbekistan ^[14]. Despite the reduction during the period of epidemiological restrictions, as of 2023, interstate transfers from Russia remained one of the largest sources of economic growth for the economies of Central Asian countries ^[15]. We should also note the role of the Russian mass media: thanks to broadcasting in both Russian and national languages, they directly acted as an instrument of "soft power". For example, in a report by the Central Asian Analytical Network (CAAN) of the University of Washington assessed the role of the Russian media as a complex phenomenon: on the one hand, information work was carried out with representatives of the Russian diaspora, on the other, work was carried out through the media to prevent such destructive phenomena as Russophobia and extremism. In addition, the services of the largest Russian technology companies Yandex and VK were very popular in the field of computer technology; in the field of computerized enterprise management, 1C products played an important role. This popularity of Russian technological products was due, in addition to purely functional factors, to the low entry threshold for foreign users due to their proficiency in the Russian language ^[16].

The Ukrainian crisis as a catalyst for transformation

At the same time, the implementation of most of the integration initiatives of the Russian Federation in Central Asia at the time of 2023 began to experience difficulties due to foreign policy circumstances related to the acute phase of the Ukrainian crisis and the accompanying geostrategic confrontation between Russia and Western countries. The Russian Federation has always been one of the closest and most influential trade and economic partners for the countries of the region, and in such circumstances, any macroeconomic shocks inevitably led to secondary shocks in the economies of Central Asian countries. The events of 2014 are significant in this sense: following the introduction of sanctions restrictions against Russia by Western countries, the subsequent drop in world energy prices due to the start of production in the United States and the devaluation of the ruble, a sharp depreciation of the national currencies of the Central Asian countries followed due to the refusal of states to maintain the previous exchange rate against the background of cheaper oil ^[17]. On average, the devaluation in the region led to the depreciation of national currencies by almost half, which led to an acceleration of annual inflation and a sharp increase in the cost of imports, on which the industry of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, represented mainly by foreign firms, depended. The economic shocks associated with the sharp escalation of Russia's economic confrontation with the European Union in early 2022 have significantly worsened the economic situation in the countries of the region in their secondary manifestations: logistical shocks were added to the devaluation, which forced many enterprises to change their usual suppliers; in addition, some Western companies suspended their activities in Central Asian countries due to losses of raw material sources in Russia ^[18]. A striking example of the cascading impact of primary economic sanctions against Russia on Central Asian countries is the shutdown of the McDonald's fast food restaurant chain in Kazakhstan in January 2023 (McDonald's withdraws from Kazakhstan // Газета.uz . URL: https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2023/01/05/mcdonalds / (date of access: 02/18/2026)). As it was noted, the main reason for this was the ban of an international corporation on the purchase of semi–finished products from Russian manufacturers, which led to the impossibility of further operations for Kazakhstani franchisees - the use of products imported from European countries would make the business unprofitable due to a multiple increase in costs. Similar phenomena were observed in other areas of the economies of the Central Asian states ^[19].

The impact of export restrictions and the risk of falling under secondary sanctions inevitably led to a complication in relations between Russia and the countries of Central Asia. However, despite the difficulties that have arisen, the mechanisms of the Eurasian Economic Union have made it possible to maintain the existing dynamics and develop sectors that were not previously represented in the EAEU economy ^[20]. Thus, in 2023, the volume of Russian exports to Central Asian countries reached $26.5 billion. with high annual growth dynamics, and the import of entire categories of goods to Russia within the framework of the "parallel" import policy increased by more than 5 times ^[21]. Coordination of joint efforts to ensure regional security continued with the involvement of the SCO and CSTO platforms, in particular, with regard to threats emanating from Afghanistan. On issues of deepening and developing cooperation on the basis of existing organizations, multilateral and bilateral contacts continued, designed to transform the mechanisms of the EAEU in the face of emerging geopolitical challenges ^[22].

Conclusions

A comparative analysis of the two editions of the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, as well as descriptive referencing of primary sources, allowed us to determine a clear line of development: if in the 2016 edition Central Asia was not distinguished as an independent vector and was defined by the category of CIS member countries, then in the 2023 edition it was for the first time consolidated as an independent political and economic an entity with its own formulation and a long–term goal - the formation of a single civilizational space. The Ukrainian crisis has become a factor here, thanks to which this transformation has become possible and expedient. The steps towards the practical implementation of foreign policy in this region have proved their effectiveness. The holding of joint events, the organization of regular meetings, the joint implementation of large-scale energy projects and the deepening of humanitarian cooperation have demonstrated that the existing mechanisms have a high degree of stability in the face of political and economic external pressure. New niches of economic cooperation have been opened, the development of which has directly increased the degree of connectivity and mutual integration of the economies of Russia and Central Asian countries.

Thus, the results obtained allow us to conclude that the beginning of the acute phase of the Ukrainian crisis was the factor that transformed the "turn to the East" from a declarative strategy, not supported by doctrines, into a functional, comprehensive, sustainable and consistent policy for the development of bilateral and multilateral relations in the Central Asian region. The presence of objective difficulties could not significantly hinder the implementation of the foreign policy course in the specified region and, on the contrary, accelerated the dynamics, creating a powerful external incentive for the intensive development of internal relations.

The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of using these results in developing recommendations for further improving Russia's foreign policy in the Central Asian region. The prospects for further research are seen in tracking the accumulating changes after 2023 as the events of the following years move from the field of political science to the field of historiography. Of particular interest in this field of research is the involvement of an analysis of the role of other major extra-regional actors in a retrospective manner, when the dynamics of changes in the world political system will acquire more stable and objectively assessable outlines.