Institutional and legal mechanisms for governing the demographics of Russia

Popova Svetlana Mikhailovna ORCID: 0000-0002-1348-4492 PhD in Politics Leading Research Associate, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences 119333, Russia, Moscow, Fotieva str., 6, office 1 sv-2002-1@yandex.ru Other publications by this author     Yanik Andrey Aleksandrovich ORCID: 0000-0002-1599-6280 PhD in Technical Science Leading Research Associate, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences 119333, Russia, Moscow, Fotieva str., 6, office 1 aa.yanick@yandex.ru Other publications by this author     Shakhray Sergey Mikhailovich ORCID: 0000-0002-5851-8393 Doctor of Law Doctor of Law, Professor, Head of the Center for Legal Support of Socio-Demographic Processes, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences 6/1 Fotieva St., Moscow, 119333, Russia s9895929@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

Karpova Svetlana Fyodorovna ORCID: 0009-0004-6771-4793 Researcher, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences 119333, Russia, Moscow, Fotieva str., 6, office 1 karpova2@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

Introduction

Official documents of the Russian Federation related to the regulation of the demographic sphere most often use concepts related to the state (situation) and development (see, for example, the "Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" or the section "Demographic development" in the Forecast of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to in 2030). The description of the demographic situation provides a starting point for identifying areas that require special attention and developing appropriate management solutions. Demographic development is usually understood as the process of quantitative and qualitative changes in the population, which occur due to the influence of various factors, the main of which are economic, social, biomedical, cultural, historical, psychological. Many authors suggest that demographic development should be considered a part of social development and that demographic change data should be considered in conjunction with social indicators ^[1-2].

Obviously, the concept of "development" is not synonymous with "growth", "progress", since the results of the processes of changing the characteristics of the population can be both positive and negative. In addition, given the influence of global demographic trends, population growth today is not always associated with progress, and a decline in the birth rate is exclusively associated with negative trends ^[3-4].

Based on this, in the context of considering institutional and legal mechanisms, it is more correct to talk about demographic change management (regulation of relations in the sphere of influencing the demographic situation), the purpose of which is to achieve and maintain a state of demographic well-being, both nationwide and within its regions and other administrative-territorial units.

Demographic well–being (understood at the macro level as "a balanced ratio of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the demographic development of a country (region) for at least five years" ^{[5, p.8]}) is one of the most important conditions and at the same time resources for sustainable socio-economic development of the Russian Federation ^[6].

In a rapidly changing world, among which global demographic changes are one of the influential forces, demographic development management requires special attention from authorities and is in itself an extremely complex, complex task. On the one hand, the demographic situation is affected by many external and internal factors that require constant adjustments not only to demographic policy itself, but also to management decisions in various areas of socio-economic development of the country. On the other hand, the results of this policy evoke diverse responses in all spheres of society, both in terms of content and time of "operation", which to a large extent determines the success of progress towards the strategic goals set by the state for the development of the country.

This article presents the results of an analysis of the institutional and legal mechanisms for managing the demographic sphere in the Russian Federation (2005-2025). It should be emphasized that the study focuses exclusively on the formal side of the management process (mechanisms) and does not address the assessment of substantive aspects of demographic change (i.e., it does not discuss what a "balanced ratio of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population" can/should be in order to achieve the country's strategic development goals). Attention to the mechanisms of public administration of complex socio-economic processes (in this case, changes in the demographic sphere) is relevant in modern conditions of rapid, large–scale and sometimes unexpected changes, since the success of development depends to a large extent on the quality of management technologies.

The source base of the research is an array of documents and literature of various origins (from 2005-2025), including regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation (federal laws, decrees and orders of the President of the Russian Federation, resolutions and orders of the Government of the Russian Federation), acts of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, strategic documents of the leadership of the Russian Federation, statistical data, official reports and reports, materials of scientific publications and online resources relevant to the research topic. In addition to Russian sources, documents from international organizations (the United Nations, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) were also used.

To solve the tasks set, general scientific research methods and techniques, legal and statistical analysis were used, and a comparative analysis of the mechanisms and institutions of state-territorial management of demographic development was applied. A parallel analysis of acts regulating the activities of government authorities in subjects of competence related to improving the quality of life, health, well-being, stimulating the growth of quantitative characteristics of the population, and acts regulating the strategic planning system in the Russian Federation allowed us to identify stages in the formation and improvement of various institutional and legal mechanisms for managing changes in the demographic sphere.

The list of normative legal acts cited in the publication is given in the Appendix.

1. Legal bases and mechanisms of demographic sphere management

The text of the Constitution of the Russian Federation does not contain the term "demography", as well as its derivatives. Accordingly, the management of the demographic sphere (demographic development) is not explicitly mentioned in the constitutionally established lists of subjects of jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and its subjects, as well as the powers of branches of government and various state bodies.

Nevertheless, the Basic Law delimits the powers of the Federation and its subjects in a number of subjects, the content of which is directly related to the impact on changes in the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population.

Thus, according to paragraph "e" of Article 71 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the subjects of the exclusive jurisdiction of the Russian Federation include "the establishment of the foundations of federal policy and federal programs in the field of state, economic, environmental, scientific, technological, social, cultural and national development of the Russian Federation; the establishment of uniform legal foundations of the health care system, the system of education and, including continuing education" (cited in Appendix 1).

And the joint jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and its subjects is: "general issues of upbringing, education, science, culture, physical culture and sports, youth policy" (paragraph "e" of Article 72); "coordination of health issues, including ensuring the provision of affordable and high-quality medical care, the preservation and strengthening of public health, creating conditions for leading a healthy lifestyle, forming a culture of responsible attitude of citizens to their health; social protection, including social security" (paragraph "g" of Article 72), as well as "protection of the family, motherhood, fatherhood and childhood; protection of the institution of marriage as a union of men and women; creating conditions for decent upbringing of children in the family, as well as for adult children to fulfill the obligation to take care of their parents" (paragraph "g ¹" of article 72).

Constitutional provisions are implemented through federal legislation, regulatory legal acts of the subjects of the Russian Federation, and other acts of public authorities that create a system of legal regulation of relations between all participants in demographic management. An extensive array of federal laws has been created, including codified ones regulating health care, education, family relations, protection of motherhood, childhood, the elderly, etc. All of them are the necessary basis for the functioning of public administration mechanisms in their respective areas.

From a formal point of view, the management of the demographic sphere until the middle of the "zero years" was a kind of summative result of the activities of public authorities in the subjects of competence listed above, which was regulated by various legal acts that did not form a single, comprehensive system focused specifically on demography. A similar pattern was observed in the institutional and functional part of management.

The analysis allowed us to identify several stages in a logically unified process of development, formation and improvement of institutional and legal mechanisms for managing changes in the field of demography.

2. The formation of demographic management as a single, integrated area (2005-2013)

The analysis showed that with the transition in the Russian Federation to the principle of performance management (results-based budgeting) (Appendix 2), the level of consistency and consistency began to increase both in the field of legal support for the management of various spheres of public and economic life, and in management practice itself (it took shape unified management logic - goal setting, forecasting, planning, control of implementation, adjustment of goals and objectives, etc.). The modern arsenal of results management includes such tools as strategies, government programs, projects and activity plans, performance indicators and performance, ratings and ratings used to allocate resources and incentives ^[7].

In 2004-2005, the introduction of program-oriented planning approaches into the practice of state executive authorities in Russia contributed to the gradual formation of demographic change management as an independent, integrated direction.

The Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 (hereinafter referred to as the Concept-2025), adopted in October 2007, became the basis, a kind of system–forming matrix, and at the same time the incentive for such a transition. Russia's demographic policy, which must be guided by all public authorities in solving population problems, was based on the common principles of comprehensive solutions to demographic problems, focus on priorities, timely response to demographic trends, and consideration of regional peculiarities (Appendix 3).

The mechanism for the coordinated implementation of the provisions of the 2025 Concept has been the five-year action plans, approved by orders of the Government of the Russian Federation since March 2011 (Appendices 4-6).

These orders established the responsible executors of the plan's activities, as well as the supervisory authority, to which the executors are required to regularly provide information on the progress of the plan's implementation. In the period from 2011 to 2015, the implementation of the plan was monitored by the Ministry of Health and Social Development of Russia, and since 2016 by the Ministry of Labor of Russia. The target dates were six months (information on the progress of the plan is submitted to the controlling ministry once a half-year, until the 15th of the month following the reporting half-year, after which the summary report is sent to the Government of the Russian Federation by the 30th of the month following the reporting half-year).

Since legally federal executive authorities do not have the right to establish mandatory requirements for regions in this area, the Government of the Russian Federation has given various recommendations to the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which, nevertheless, are becoming more imperative. If in 2011 the federal center suggested that the regions clarify regional action plans to improve the demographic situation, taking into account the federal action plan, then in 2021 The Government of the Russian Federation has already recommended that the executive bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation ensure the implementation of this action plan when carrying out their activities (Appendix 6).

Within the framework of practical activities, more and more clear, measurable targets were formed, necessary to assess progress towards the goals set, which were systematically refined. In May 2012, a decree of the President of the Russian Federation specified for the first time the targets for the medium-term period (until 2018) (Appendix 7) for the implementation of the concept of demographic policy, which made it possible to more clearly ensure the planning and monitoring of measures. In particular, the Government of the Russian Federation was instructed to increase the total fertility rate to 1,753 by 2018, and the life expectancy in the Russian Federation to 74 years.

As is known, the circumstances that objectively hinder the coordinated achievement of demographic targets are the asymmetry of the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation, differences in their budget levels (donor regions, recipient regions), and imbalances in the total regional fertility rates relative to the national average (see, for example, ^[8-9]). As a result, due to such a diverse demographic situation and resource opportunities, special attention is being paid to the formation of mechanisms for effective interaction between public authorities at different levels, including support tools from the federal government.

For example, in order to encourage large families, the federal center was required to co-finance the expenditure obligations of the regions for monthly cash payments to families in need of support, assigned in case of the birth of a third child and subsequent children before they reach the age of three.

The amount of federal funds for co-financing was proposed to be determined based on the level of estimated budgetary security of the subject of the Russian Federation. It was planned that the volume of co-financing from the federal budget could reach up to 90% of the funds needed in 2013, with a gradual increase in the share of the region's own funds to 50% in 2018 (Appendix 7).

In order to stimulate population growth in the eastern regions of Russia, new edicts of Decree No. 606 of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2012 established the obligation of the federal center to co-finance the expenses of the subjects of the Russian Federation for payments to families who gave birth to a third or more child in the Far Eastern Federal District - from January 01, 2019; and in the Ural and Siberian Federal Districts - from January 01, 2020, regardless of the total fertility rate (hereinafter referred to as the TFR).

The lists of regions for co-financing from the federal budget are approved by orders of the Government of the Russian Federation in the current year for the next year, and the allocation of funds (also by government order) - in the corresponding year in which payments are made, which allows you to adjust the plan and the fact. As a result, the number of entities applying for co-financing is higher than the number that have received federal support. This procedure allows you to flexibly respond to the dynamics of the situation both in terms of achieving certain indicators by regions or changing established criteria, and in terms of the capabilities of the federal budget, taking into account the emergence of new challenges (the COVID-19 pandemic, a special military operation, the effects of international sanctions, etc.).

For example, in 2016, the list of co–financing for 2017 included 50 subjects of the Russian Federation in which the TFR value was lower than the average for Russia (in 2016 - 1,762). However, in 2017, by decree of the President of the Russian Federation, the criterion for the participation of regions in the co-financing program was changed to a TFR value not exceeding 2 (Appendix, 8). As a result, according to publicly available data, the expenditure obligations of the federal budget to support families in connection with the birth of a third child or subsequent children were provided to 33 subjects of the Federation in the amount of 0.544 billion rubles (Adj., 9-10).

The list of subjects of the Russian Federation for co–financing in 2021 included 76 regions (Adj., 11), and the payment order included 58 (Adj., 12); in 2022, 77 and 66, respectively (Adj., 13-14).

Figure 1 shows the dynamics of changes in the number of subjects of the Russian Federation in the lists for co-financing these expenditure obligations and the amount of actually allocated budget funds.

Figure 1. Co-financing from the federal budget of expenditure obligations of the subjects of the Russian Federation for monthly cash payments to families in need in the event of the birth of a third child and subsequent children (2013-2022) (compiled by the authors based on open data from the Government of the Russian Federation).

3. Development of approaches and methods of strategic management (2014-2024)

Improving demographic management mechanisms is part of the overall effort to improve the effectiveness of institutional and legal mechanisms and methods of managing the country's socio-economic development. Of particular importance in this context is the adoption in 2014 of the federal law on strategic planning, which legally formalized the elements of established management practice and regulated the relations that arise between all participants in this process. The streamlining of the hierarchy of strategic planning documents, the procedure for their adoption and control of implementation has provided new opportunities for improving the coherence of actions of public authorities to achieve their goals, ensuring the necessary coordination of "state and municipal strategic management and budgetary policy" (Appendix, 15).

A qualitatively new mechanism for the coordinated work of public authorities at all levels has emerged with the introduction of such a strategic document into the public administration system as the decrees of the President of the Russian Federation defining the national development goals of the Russian Federation.

For the first time, such an act was promulgated in May 2018, defining the national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 (Appendix, 16).

This step meant the introduction of a new mechanism for managing the country's socio-economic development through the development and implementation of national projects (programs) in areas consistent with the national development goals of the Russian Federation approved by the Head of State.

From that moment to the present, goals related to the demographic sphere are formulated first in the list of national development goals. At the same time, it is necessary to note the evolution of formulations: from quantitative characteristics to characteristics combining quantitative and qualitative aspects.

2018 (for the period up to 2024) – The Government of the Russian Federation was instructed to ensure the achievement of such national goals as "ensuring sustainable natural population growth in the Russian Federation" and "increasing life expectancy to 78 years (by 2030 - to 80 years)" (Appendix, 16);

2020 y. (for the period up to 2030) – "preservation of the population, human health and well-being" (Appendix 17);

2024 (for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2036) – "preservation of the population, strengthening the health and well-being of people, family support" (Appendix, 18).

Among the 12 directions for which in 2018 The Government of the Russian Federation was instructed to develop (adjust) relevant national projects (programs) together with the state authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The first ones were demography; healthcare; education; housing and the urban environment and ecology, that is, areas whose development directly affects the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population.

Fulfilling the instructions of the federal government, the Russian Ministry of Labor presented in 2019 for implementation the national project "Demography", focused on achieving the national goal of "Population conservation, human health and well-being" with three targets:

- increase in life expectancy to 78 years;

- ensuring sustainable population growth in the Russian Federation;

- increasing the proportion of citizens who systematically engage in physical education and sports to 70 percent;

The national Demography project included 5 federal projects that took into account global demographic changes typical of economically developed countries (population aging, declining birth rates, increased morbidity due to unhealthy lifestyles, etc.) ("Financial support for families at the birth of children"; "Employment promotion"; "The older generation"; "Strengthening public health"; "Sport is the norm of life").

In 2020, the Russian Federation was forced to address the challenges of improving development management in a situation of global turbulence, the impact of new and sometimes unexpected challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, restrictions on cross-border migration, and the economic downturn, including in the context of international sanctions. It was formed and adopted in October 2021 as a key management tool. The unified plan for achieving the national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 and for the planning period up to 2030, which defined the strategic priorities of the Government of the Russian Federation for achieving national development goals and targets characterizing their achievement (Appendix, 19).

The unified plan is interdepartmental and intersectoral in nature, ensuring the mutual alignment of national development goals, national projects, government programs, sectoral and regional strategies, roadmaps and other management mechanisms.

Among the challenges of the coming decade, mentioned in the preamble of the Unified Plan, demographic challenges are the first to be named. The Government of the Russian Federation has stated that the country's population will objectively decrease during this period and has set goals: "to reverse this trend and ensure population growth by 2030 by stabilizing the birth rate, reducing mortality and ensuring high-quality migration growth."

The solution of these tasks can actually be considered one of the drivers of socio-economic development, since it requires the implementation of a multi-level set of measures that can have a synergistic effect not only in the field of demography, but also for the sustainable development of the country as a whole. These measures are aimed, in particular, at improving the environment for families with children and older people, developing educational, leisure, and tourism infrastructure, ensuring access to medical care at all levels, improving the environment, promoting a healthy lifestyle, and improving the effectiveness of migration policy, taking into account the needs of labor markets.

Another mechanism born in management practice for achieving diverse goals and objectives in the field of integrated demographic management is action strategies (national action strategies) and plans for their implementation (all documents are approved by the Government of the Russian Federation). Councils under the President or the Government of the Russian Federation are established to coordinate the actions of government bodies and other structures for the implementation of action strategies.

This model was used to implement National Strategies for Coordinated Action for Children (2012) and Women (2016 and 2022), as well as Strategies for Action for Older Citizens (2016, without the creation of a specialized coordinating council).

Formally, national action strategies are not named in the lists of strategic planning documents, and there is no single legal definition. Nevertheless, according to the provisions of these documents themselves, national strategies are fundamental documents that define the main directions of public policy in the interests of certain categories of citizens and key mechanisms for its implementation.

In the period from 2012 (the actual beginning of the implementation of the Demographic Policy Concept through the mechanisms of five-year plans) to 2024, the foundations of institutional and legal mechanisms for managing changes in the demographic sphere of the country, in addition to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, federal and regional laws and other regulatory legal acts, have compiled an extensive body of strategic planning documents, the most important of which (goal setting at the federal level) are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Architecture of strategic planning documents developed within the framework of goal setting

The very enumeration of this far from complete list of documents demonstrates how difficult it is to ensure the consistency, purposefulness, consistency and scientific validity of the actions of all parties involved in managing the development of the demographic sphere. Effective decomposition of goals, control over the fulfillment of tasks, objective assessment of the results obtained, prompt receipt and analysis of feedback data are impossible without the active introduction of digital technologies. Hence, one of the key areas for improving mechanisms to achieve the necessary socio-demographic changes is the development of a flexible digital management model at all levels.

4. The modern stage

The current stage in improving the mechanisms for managing changes in the demographic sphere came with the adoption of the third edition of the national development goals of the Russian Federation - for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2036. Among the seven main development goals, the goal was indicated: "preservation of the population, strengthening of health and well-being of people, support for the family" (Adj., 18).

At the same time, on January 1, 2025, the implementation of new national projects to achieve the development goals was launched, designed for the same period and the future until 2036. They are improving, developing and complementing previous national projects initiated by the President of Russia from 2019 to 2024. (Adj., 20). It is planned to allocate over 40 trillion rubles from the federal budget to national projects by the end of 2030, and at least 13 trillion rubles more will be made up of extra-budgetary investments. In particular, subsidies from the federal budget in the amount of about 1 trillion rubles are planned for the implementation of national projects in 2025.

In January 2025, the Russian government presented the "Unified Plan for Achieving the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation until 2030 and for the future until 2036" as the main guideline in the work of public authorities to achieve national development goals (Appendix, 21). To achieve the national goal of "preserving the population, strengthening health and well-being of people, and supporting the family," the Unified Plan provides for thirteen quantitative and qualitative targets. In addition, quantitative indicators characterizing the results of demographic development management at the regional level were included in the lists of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of the activities of senior officials and executive authorities of the regions (Appendix, 22).

The "Strategy of Actions for the Implementation of Family and Demographic policy and support for large families in the Russian Federation until 2036", adopted in March 2025, became a single strategic planning document defining the main directions of state demographic and family policy in the new conditions.

The strategy is aimed at consolidating the efforts of public authorities and civil society institutions to "strengthen the institution of the family, preserve and promote traditional family values in society, increase fertility, protect maternal, paternal, child, and reproductive health, improve the well-being and quality of life of families, including in special life situations, and promote implementation in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation." Federation of Family-oriented demographic policy, taking into account national and socio-cultural characteristics" (Appendix, 23). Despite its programmatic complexity, the adopted Strategy of Action for the Implementation of Family and Demographic Policy (2025) is consistent with the Concept of Demographic Policy (2007) and the Concept of State Family Policy (2014).

The achievement of the indicators of the Action Strategy is ensured through the implementation of national projects, therefore, its provisions are interconnected with most national projects and are mandatory for possible adjustments to 11 national projects, 6 federal state programs, regional state programs, projects implemented by public authorities at all levels, as well as other strategic documents "in terms of family and demographic policies, other documents and projects aimed at supporting the family."

The decision to launch an Action Strategy turned out to be timely, since in 2024, out of 85 subjects of the Russian Federation (excluding four new regions), the population decreased in 63 of them, and a natural population decline was observed in 73 regions of Russia ^[10]. According to data on the natural movement of the country's population (Rosstat, January-December 2024), natural population growth of varying intensity was observed in only 13 regions. The largest population growth in 2024 was recorded in the city of Moscow and the Moscow Region (124.5 thousand people each). The value of the migration growth coefficient varied in 2024, from -8.4% in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug to +17.2% in the Moscow Region, in most of the central regions of Russia it was close to the median value of 1.2%, which in It is several times lower than the average value in Russia (3.9%), which means a decrease in the role of migration as a factor that can reduce the impact of depopulation on demographic dynamics ^[11].

The improvement of the TFR in the Action Strategy is supposed to be achieved through the implementation of a body of systemic measures aimed at both directly stimulating fertility and having many children (improving the support system for families with children, creating conditions for the successful combination of parenting and education, professional realization, support for having many children, creating additional incentives for the birth of second, third and subsequent children, providing support to help families improve their living conditions), as well as to change public attitudes (protection, preservation and promotion of traditional family values, family lifestyle).

The Council under the President of the Russian Federation for the Implementation of State Demographic and Family Policy has been established to coordinate the efforts of public authorities (Annex 24).

In turn, at the regional level, the implementation of the Action Strategy can be carried out on the basis of its own lists of priority measures (strategies, action plans) developed by the executive bodies and approved by senior officials of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The provision of such projects is implemented by distributing the indicators and results of the national project "Family" across the subjects of the Russian Federation.

Conclusions

Long-term trends of objective downward trends in Russia's demographic development are difficult to overcome in a short period of time ^[12-15]. In November 2021, more than 13 years after the adoption of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 (2007), the Head of State stated that the problem of demographic declines "has acquired a systemically important economic character due to the lack of the necessary number of workers in the labor market" (losses amount to 1.1%-1.2% per year) and once again he called solving the demographic problem one of the main tasks both from the point of view of strengthening statehood and for economic reasons ^[16].

The demographic situation currently remains risky from the point of view of national security, and this circumstance directly affects the pace and quality of achieving the country's development strategy targets. Since demographic well-being combines quantitative and qualitative characteristics, the tasks of socio-economic development of the country are solved not only by directly stimulating population growth, but also by achieving a certain "demographic optimum", when "qualitative socio-demographic parameters" come to the fore ^[2]. As a result, the coordinated activities of the authorities to create conditions for achieving demographic optimum simultaneously contribute to the achievement of goals related to ensuring socio-economic progress and the transition to a model of sustainable development of the country.

1. During the period 2005-2025, three main stages of the evolution of approaches and the institutional and legal instruments themselves can be formally distinguished in the unified process of formation and improvement of the mechanisms of state management of the demographic sphere of Russia: 2005-2013, 2014-2024, from 2005 to the present: transition to results-based management; formation of a strategic planning system and the creation of mechanisms for focusing efforts on key priorities through the formulation of national development goals; increasing the coherence and effectiveness of actions by authorities at all levels, through unified action plans and digitalization of strategic management.

In fact, over the past twenty years, there has been a transition from an operational, tactical response to the peculiarities of the demographic situation in the country and demographic challenges to methods of strategic, systematic, targeted management of changes in the demographic sphere. The current stage fully corresponds to the peculiarities of the socio-economic development of the country and the qualities of the macro environment, and is also characterized by a sharp expansion of the palette of mechanisms of influence and management, including the digitalization of the public sphere and the economy.

2. A formal legal analysis of the array of sources in the field of demographic regulation for the period 2007-2025 and related institutional mechanisms have shown the existence of a number of problems, the solution of which will improve the effectiveness of change management in the demographic sphere.

In particular, we are talking about the lack of a legal definition of the concepts of "demographic development", "demographic well-being", etc. Demographic policy is defined through a list of targets ("aimed at increasing the life expectancy of the population, reducing mortality, increasing fertility, regulating internal and external migration, preserving and strengthening public health and improving the demographic situation in the country on this basis"), but has no substantive definition. There is no legal differentiation of the subjects of competence, rights and duties of various levels of public authority in the field of demographic development management ("vertically").

This state of affairs is objective, since the legislative process always lags behind the rapid and sometimes unexpected changes in modern life. Executive authorities are forced to respond to new situations and challenges in real time, and therefore the management of demographic development is a creative, innovative process.

The analysis showed that new management models, various management mechanisms that allow for coordinated actions of executive authorities ("horizontally" and "vertically") to achieve the set development goals, first arise in the practice of executive authorities and are "introduced into legal reality" by acts of the Head of State (concepts, fundamentals of public policy, national development goals), documents of the Government of the Russian Federation, and only then are systematized and formalized in laws. This remark concerns not only the discussed area of work of the executive authorities, but also all other areas of management of the socio-economic development of the country.

For example, the concept of national development goals (with appropriate mechanisms for achieving them) appeared in May 2018. However, it is included in the Framework of State Policy in the field of strategic planning (in the list of strategic planning documents developed within the framework of goal setting). they were included in November 2021 (by decree of the Head of State on approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the field of strategic planning (Annex 25)), and in the federal law on strategic planning the provisions on them (paragraph 30.1 of Article 3, Article 27.1, paragraph 1 of Article 28) – only in July 2024 (Annex., 26). It should be noted that the phrase "national development goals of the Russian Federation" appears in the text of the said federal law only twice (in the context of clarifying the status of national projects), and until 2024 the law operated only with the concept of "goals of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation".

3. Stimulating birth rate growth is a complex, multi–level task that requires qualitative changes in the socio-economic living conditions of citizens, taking into account the diversity of levels of development, the specific demographic situation, the specifics of the territory and the resource capabilities of each of the country's regions.

For example, an increase in the birth rate in rural areas requires rapid and significant improvements in residential, transport and social infrastructure, and the creation of comfortable public spaces for families with children. In modern conditions of sanctions pressure and slowing down the pace of economic development, solving problems of such complexity is possible only as part of activities of other relevant national projects and government programs, as well as modernization of existing infrastructure facilities. Based on this, the relevance of improving the effectiveness of interdepartmental and intersectoral cooperation within the framework of project approaches continues to increase.

To develop practical mechanisms for such interaction, the Government of the Russian Federation has launched a pilot project to stimulate fertility, which will be carried out in the Novgorod, Penza and Tambov regions from September 1, 2023 (Annex 27). As part of this pilot project, in particular, specific projects have already been implemented to improve public areas, major repairs have been carried out in a number of educational institutions of secondary vocational education, vehicles have been purchased for medical organizations, family and youth multifunctional centers, and passenger transportation in rural areas.

However, it is obvious that it takes not only time to obtain an objective assessment of the results of such projects, but also further improvement of statistics, deepening the digital transformation of management processes, and the introduction of modern scientific approaches (in particular, the theory of change) into auditing the effectiveness of public authorities ^[17-21].

4. The methods used to stabilize and increase the birth rate, reduce mortality and increase life expectancy require improvement, taking into account objectively achievable effects. Due to the objective duration of the "management impact – observed result" cycle, it is still difficult to obtain an evidence base for improving demographic management mechanisms.

Nevertheless, for some long-term tools, the necessary amount of data is already accumulating to identify causal relationships between exposure and the results obtained.

For example, such a tool for influencing demographic changes as maternity capital has been operating for 18 years (effective from January 1, 2007, and extended until 2030 in 2025), and the available evidence base allows us to draw conclusions about the directions of its adjustment. In particular, it has been proven that maternity capital in the period 2007-2016 was able to perform the function of "first stabilizing and then increasing births", and after moving its main part to the first child in 2020, it "did not fail in the first births" ^[22]. However, it has little effect on the birth of second and subsequent children ^[23]. Meanwhile, according to experts, an increase in the total Russian birth rate to acceptable levels in the future implies a rapid increase in large families ^[24]. As a result, it is necessary to update approaches to the payment of maternity capital ^[25] and other tools used in the framework of "stimulated demography", which, as noted by the Minister of Labor of the Russian Federation A.O. Kotyakov, "have lost their effectiveness, or their resulting effect does not have a proper impact on the target audience" ^[22].

5. One of the most important factors in accelerating Russia's economic development and improving the demographic situation is the quality of the institutional environment. The key factors for increasing the effectiveness of institutional and legal mechanisms for ensuring positive changes in the demographic sphere are:

- political will,

- availability of a comprehensive national development strategy,

- adequate financing,

- Clear legal and policy framework,

- availability of a well-developed administrative and organizational infrastructure (institutional capacity),

- the quality and accessibility of social and demographic data necessary for making scientifically sound decisions,

- qualified human resources and modern technologies,

- awareness and involvement of the public.

The relative success (or failure) of the implementation of a complex set of institutional and legal instruments for Russia's demographic development in 2036 will be determined not only by sound budgetary policy, coherence and effectiveness of the actions of all public authorities, civil society institutions and adequate scientific expertise. Ultimately, as stated in the Unified Plan, everything will depend on the success of solving "the long-term task of putting the country's economy on a sustainable trajectory of economic growth and income growth, ensuring the implementation of national development goals in the face of existing challenges" (Appendix, 21).

Effective adaptive management of demographic development is a multi-level and multivariate task, the solution of which requires a combination of comprehensive demographic analysis and forecasting, the development and implementation of various government policies (labor markets, social security, health, education, urban and rural planning) and linking demographic management with economic growth strategies. In fact, purposeful work to achieve Russia's demographic well-being is becoming one of the drivers of the country's socio-economic progress. Therefore, the issues of further improving the institutional and legal mechanisms for managing demographic changes in Russia remain extremely relevant in the medium and long term.

Application

Cited regulatory legal acts

1. The Constitution of the Russian Federation (Adopted by popular vote on December 12, 1993, with amendments approved during the nationwide vote on July 1, 2020).

2. Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of May 22, 2004 No. 249 (as amended on 04/06/2011) "On measures to improve the effectiveness of budget expenditures" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2004. No. 22. St. 2180.

3. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated October 09, 2007 No. 1351 (as amended on 07/01/2014) "On approval of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2007. No. 42. St. 5009.

4. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 367-r dated March 10, 2011 (as amended on 10/01/2012) <On approval of the action plan for the implementation in 2011-2015 of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025> // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2011. No. 12. Art. 1655.

5. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 669-r dated April 14, 2016 <On approval of the action plan for the implementation of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation in 2016-2020" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2016. No. 17. St. 2426

6. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2580-r dated September 16, 2021 (as amended on 01/23/2024) <On approval of the action plan for the implementation in 2021-2025 of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025> // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2021. No. 39. St. 6751.

7. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 606 dated May 07, 2012 (as amended on 01/13/2023) "On measures to implement the demographic policy of the Russian Federation" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2012. No. 19. St. 2343.

8. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 487 dated October 18, 2017 "On Amendments to Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 606 dated May 7, 2012 "On Measures to Implement the Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2017. No. 43 (Part II). Article 6305.

9. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2699-r dated December 02, 2017 <On approval of the distribution of subsidies provided in 2017 from the federal budget to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to co-finance expenditure obligations arising from the establishment of monthly cash payments to families in need of support. // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2017. No. 50 (Part III). Article 7664.

10. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated October 06, 2017 No. 2184-r <On the distribution in 2017 of subsidies from the federal budget to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to co-finance the expenditure obligations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation arising from the appointment of a monthly cash payment to families in need of support in connection with the birth of their third or subsequent children> // Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation. 2017. No. 42. St. 6191.

11. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated September 23, 2020 No. 2433-r <On approval of the list of subjects of the Russian Federation in respect of which, in 2021, expenditure obligations of subjects of the Russian Federation arising from the establishment of monthly cash payments to families in need of support provided for in paragraph 2 of Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 05/07/2012 No. 606 will be co-financed from the federal budget. // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2020. No. 39. St. 6152.

12. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2051-r dated July 24, 2021 (as amended on 12/07/2021) <On the allocation of budget allocations for the purpose of co-financing expenditure obligations of the subjects of the Russian Federation for the financial provision of monthly cash payments due in the event of the birth of a third child or subsequent children before the child reaches the age of three, provided for in paragraph 2 of Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2012 No. 606 "On measures to implement the Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation"> // Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation. 2021. No. 31. St. 5962.

13. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2218-r dated August 11, 2021 <On approval of the list of subjects of the Russian Federation in respect of which, in 2022, expenditure obligations of subjects of the Russian Federation arising from the establishment of monthly cash payments to families in need of support provided for in paragraph 2 of Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 05/07/2012 No. 606 will be co-financed from the federal budget. // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2021. No. 33. St. 6162.

14. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2967-r dated October 11, 2022 (as amended on December 09, 2022) <On the provision in 2022 to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in order to co-finance the expenditure obligations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the financial support of a monthly cash payment, which is assigned in case of the birth of a third child or subsequent children before the child reaches the age of three> // Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation. 2022. No. 42. Art. 7219.

15. Federal Law No. 172-FZ of June 28, 2014 (as amended on July 13, 2024) "On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2014. No. 26 (part I). Article 3378.

16. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 07, 2018 No. 204 (as amended on 07/21/2020) "On National goals and strategic objectives for the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2018. No. 20, article 2817.

17. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated July 21, 2020 No. 474 "On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2020. No. 30, article 4884.

18. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 07, 2024 No. 309 "On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2036" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2024, No. 20, article 2584.

19. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2765-r dated October 01, 2021 <On approval of the Unified Plan for achieving the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 and for the planned period up to 2030> // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2021. No. 42. St. 7157.

20. Archive of national projects of Russia for 2019-2024 // Portal "National Projects.Russian Federation". URL: https://национальныепроекты .Russian Federation/projects/

21. The Unified Plan for achieving the national Development Goals of the Russian Federation until 2030 and for the future until 2036" (approved by the Government of the Russian Federation). By the Government of the Russian Federation, 2025) // National projects. Newsletter No. 1. Moscow: Parliamentary Library, 2025. – 90 p.

22. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated January 28, 2025 No. 58 "On approval of methods for calculating indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of senior officials of the Subjects of the Russian Federation and the Activities of Executive Bodies of the Subjects of the Russian Federation" (the document began on 02/25/2025) // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2025. No. 7. Art. 605.

23. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 615-r dated March 15, 2025 <On the approval of the Action Strategy for the implementation of family and demographic policy, support for large families in the Russian Federation until 2036> // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2025. No. 13, article 1505.

24. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 99 dated February 21, 2025 "On Approval of the Regulations on the Council under the President of the Russian Federation for the Implementation of State Demographic and Family Policy and its Composition" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2025. No. 8. St. 752.

25. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 633 dated November 08, 2021 "On Approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the field of strategic planning in the Russian Federation" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2021. No. 46. St.7676.

26. Federal Law No. 177-FZ of July 13, 2024 (as amended on 10/29/2024) "On Amendments to the Budget Code of the Russian Federation and Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2024. No. 29 (Part III). Article 4106.

27. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated August 31, 2023 No. 1419 (as amended on 10/29/2024) "On the implementation of a pilot project aimed at stimulating fertility" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2023. No. 36. Article 6742.