Surkova G.V., Krylov A.A. —
Changes in the average and extreme wind speeds in the Arctic during the late XXI century
// Arctic and Antarctica. – 2018. – ¹ 3.
– P. 26 - 36.
DOI: 10.7256/2453-8922.2018.3.27395
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/arctic/article_27395.html
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Abstract: The subject of this research is the current state of wind regime in the Arctic and variability in response to the global warming. The performed analysis concerns both, the average value of wind speed and the extremely high that exceed the specified threshold value in the present-day conditions and in the late XXI century. The authors examines the spatiotemporal variability of the value of wind speed of different frequency in the Arctic territory for the climate system models that participated in the World Climate Research Program CMIP5. Particular attention is given to the regional peculiarities of climate forecast of wind speed over the seas of the Russian Arctic. The results are obtained from the data of reanalysis ERA-Interim and climate system models of the CMIP5 project for the current (Historical experiment) and forecast (experiment RCP8.5) climate. The main result of this research became the quantitative estimates of climatic forecast of the average and extreme wind speed in the Arctic by 2100 in terms of implementation of RCP8.5 scenario, which implies the most rapid rise of temperature throughout the XXI century. It is acknowledged that with the ongoing warming over the major part of the Arctic, the growth trend of not only the average, but also the extreme values of wind speed is typical for most models of the CMIP5 project. The decrease is noted over the greater part of the north of Eurasia, Greenland, the North Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea, while the rest of the Arctic is experiencing an increase in average and extreme wind speeds. The drop in temperature is recorded over the most of Eurasia, Greenland, North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea, while over the rest of the Arctic shows the increase in average and extreme wind speeds.