External threats to modern Poland in the assessments of the Polish press

Babenko Oksana Vasil'evna ORCID: 0000-0003-2138-2848 PhD in History Senior Researcher; Department of History; Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences 117593, Russia, Moscow, Solovyiny Proezd str., 4, building 1 o.v.babenko@mail.ru Other publications by this author

Introduction

The issue of identifying Poland's external threats is particularly relevant these days. Warsaw's goals are to gain a strong position in a changing world and a role as a hegemon in Central and Eastern Europe. To achieve these goals, the Polish authorities need to correctly and timely identify potential external threats and take preventive measures. The Poles' perceptions of the dangers facing them are reflected in the local press.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the assessments of Poland's external threats published by Polish journalists in late 2023 and early 2024. It was during this period that information about the Kremlin's plans to use force against Central, Eastern and Western European countries reached its peak in some Western European and North American media. The article is based on the materials of the largest Polish media available on the Internet. The most popular Polish periodicals include the liberal Gazeta Wyborcza and the conservative Rzeczpospolita. The first has been published daily since 1989, the second, founded in 1920, is published six days a week, except Sundays. There are many materials in these newspapers that make it possible to understand the perception of the international situation by Polish politicians and the circles of Polish society that have fallen under their influence. The opinions published in them on Russia's foreign policy do not contradict the position of official Warsaw. In addition, such materials are found in the well-known multidisciplinary daily newspaper with a high percentage of socio-political information "Dziennik Zachodni", published in Upper Silesia since 1945, as well as in the Poznan socio-political weekly magazine "Wprost", founded in 1982. Of particular importance is the weekly Polityka, which has been published since 1957. It constantly publishes comments on the most topical topics – currently it is Russia's special operation in Ukraine and its possible consequences for the West. It is one of the most informative periodicals in Poland, with which prominent Polish scientists, writers and politicians have collaborated and continue to collaborate. However, the materials about Russia published in it and other similar media are usually biased, with a negative connotation, in this case the political orientation of the editorial staff and the authors does not matter. The coverage of events in other countries often depends on the political situation.

Thus, the novelty of our work lies in the fact that for the first time in the scientific literature it examines the latest materials of the Polish press on the subject of the article. The research method is content analysis, which allowed us to analyze the texts of newspaper and magazine publications and draw appropriate conclusions.

Poland's Foreign Policy

There are two main "Western" trends in the foreign policy of modern Poland: American and European. Nevertheless, it can be described as pro-American. According to Polish professor Andrzej Nowak, the European Union, which includes Poland, does not guarantee its security ^[9]. Therefore, the country's only real ally today is Washington, regardless of whether it is a Democratic or Republican administration. The Republic of Poland has been a member of NATO since 1999, which already indicates its close ties with the United States and military responsibilities within the framework of the North Atlantic Alliance. For the past eight years, American troops have been permanently stationed in Poland (at the beginning of 2024, their number is more than 10,000 people), contracts have been signed with American concerns for arming the Polish army. However, Warsaw also has national interests, which are met by the implementation of the Intermarium (Three Seas) project.

In order to understand Poland's strategic objectives, it is necessary to clarify that the Three Seas project is being used by Poland in the international arena to gain a strong position in Europe. He represents the idea of Yu, which has been reworked by modern politicians. Pilsudski on the creation of a confederation of states from the Baltic to the Black and Adriatic Seas in order for Warsaw to gain great prestige in Central and Eastern Europe. This regional bloc was intended to be a counterweight to Poland's two historical enemies, Germany and Russia, during the period between the two World Wars. In order to emphasize the departure from Pilsudski's aspirations for hegemony in the central and Eastern European region, Warsaw began to refer to the "Intermarium" as the "Three Seas". Nowadays, the focus is on the economic reasons for the unification of the states of Central and Eastern Europe into a regional union. The project was initiated in 2015 by Poland and Croatia, and its official goal is to strengthen economic ties in the region. Subsequently, 10 more EU members joined it: Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia and the Czech Republic.

It should be noted that four member countries of the Three Seas are simultaneously members of the Visegrad Group established in 1991 - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. All of them are members of the EU and NATO. However, unlike the Three Seas, this alliance clearly defines the cultural component (cultural cooperation between the participating countries) and the nuclear initiative – all members of the group advocate nuclear energy within the EU. Nevertheless, the Three Seas region has more initiatives and forms of cooperation – activities within the project are carried out at summits, Parliamentary forums, Forums of the Three Seas regions, summit meetings are held, there is its own Investment Fund, an infrastructure project for the transportation of liquefied natural gas, the Baltic-Adriatic corridor and other projects are supported. As for the Visegrad Group, it has only one institutional form of cooperation – the International Visegrad Foundation, created to strengthen ties between people and institutions in Central and Eastern Europe.

The need to consolidate the Three-Sea countries is justified by the expediency of cooperation in the North-South direction as opposed to the East-West direction set by the USSR to the countries of the socialist camp in the 1950s – 1991. According to the new plan, the Three-Sea countries should be connected by the Via Carpatia motorway currently under construction, which will run from the Lithuanian port Klaipeda to Greek Thessaloniki. In modern analytical literature, it is rightly noted that this is one of the priority infrastructure projects of Poland ^{[2, p. 46]}.

The Polish leadership often speaks on the international stage on behalf of all the countries of the Three Seas. However, not all the participating states of the project actively support Poland. Thus, the Czech Republic and Austria were initially skeptical about the viability of the project due to Polish hegemony in it ^{[2, p. 47]}. Nevertheless, these countries were looking for their own benefits from participating in this project, in particular, the opportunity to reduce their energy dependence on Russia thanks to Washington's financial support of the Three Seas. But Warsaw's pro-American course is openly supported only by the Baltic states, Slovakia and Romania.

Poland's external threats

The Polish authorities often contrast the Three Seas countries within the EU with more economically developed states, primarily Germany. Berlin attempted to enter the Three Seas, but was refused. This only worsened relations between Poland and Germany. However, since the end of 2023, information began to appear about the Polish initiative to revive relations with Berlin. On January 19, 2024, Gazeta Wyborcza published the 34th report of analysts from the Copernicus Group (Grupa Kopernika is a research project whose participants study modern relations between Poland and Germany) on the prospects of Polish-German relations ^[8]. It assesses 2024 as a good time to establish mutual cooperation after many years of stagnation and cooling of bilateral relations. At the same time, it is noted that cooperation should develop on a new platform, and a return to past forms of relations is excluded. At the same time, analysts do not specify what is meant by "past forms of relations." The authorities and society should be involved in this issue. According to the Copernicus Group, government contacts should be resumed, as well as assistance should be provided to individual institutions and individuals contributing to the development of relations between Warsaw and Berlin. This indicates that Poles currently perceive Germany not as an enemy, as it was, for example, during the interwar period and during World War II, but as a partner in the international arena. France is also not an enemy of Poland. On the contrary, she expresses her support in every possible way, and in June 2023, in connection with Russia's special operation in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Warsaw had a special responsibility for the fate of Europe ^[3].

From whom, in the opinion of Polish journalists, does the main military threat to Poland come? Due to the beginning of the SVR, the focus in the media shifted to Russia. Recently, there have been more and more publications in the Polish press about Russia's threat to NATO countries. The special operation is called Russia's war with Ukraine and is commented on daily from the standpoint of criticism of the Kremlin's actions. Polish journalists tend to publish false information discrediting Russia. Thus, V. Radzivinovich claims that in December 2021, Moscow threatened the West with war and is now not retreating from its goals, but, on the contrary, has come closer to their realization ^[13]. It should be noted that currently the topic of "Russia's war with Ukraine" and the Kremlin's non-existent plans to invade Europe have been pushed out of the pages of Polish periodicals by the news of the Three Seas project.

Poles often publish interviews with Western politicians, which assess the threats to Europe from Russia. So, on December 29, 2023, Dziennik Zachodni published an interview with Andrew A. Mishta, Director of the Strategic Initiative at the Atlantic Council of the United States ^[14]. In it, the political scientist says that within two years the Russians will create an army so strong that they will be able to launch another attack. Poland, in his opinion, needs to arm itself and create a regional union. The interest and trust of Poles in the opinion of Western politicians and the military is reflected in an article in the weekly Polityka dated January 24, 2024, which cites the arguments of British generals published in the English newspaper Daily Mail about the impending war between Russia and NATO, which, in their opinion, will last 20 years ^[11].

The Poles themselves assess the conflict between Russia and the West as possible. So, the journalist M. Siverchinsky in his article in the magazine "Polityka" expresses the following fears: Ukraine is close to defeat, and Russia may go further to the West ^[15]. And correspondent A. Lomanovsky, in an article in the Rzeczpospolita newspaper dated January 15, 2024, refers to the German newspaper Bild, which claims that next year there will be a conflict between NATO and Russia, and the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance will be involved in the defense of the Baltic states ^[12].

As you know, Poland supports Ukraine in every possible way: in 2022, it ranked third in the list of countries that provided the most military assistance to Ukraine, and in 2023, Warsaw's humanitarian, financial and military assistance to Kiev was estimated at $4.7 billion ^[1]. The Poles are counting on the early defeat of Russia, which will negate the threat from its side. Polish correspondents M. Fischer and J. Fischer draw readers' attention to Russia's problems with air defense, which Ukraine should use ^[10]. In addition, Kiev, in their opinion, requires substantial and rapid assistance from the West, as well as great efforts by the armed forces of Ukraine itself.

Nevertheless, at the beginning of 2024, Warsaw began to worry about the position of American politicians on European security issues. Polish journalists recall the words of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, uttered during a conversation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum in Davos 2020, that in the event of a military conflict with Russia, the United States would not help Europe and would withdraw from the North Atlantic Alliance. He reminded the German woman that Germany owes the United States $ 400 billion, which was allocated to her for defense needs. "NATO is dead," Trump said at the time ^[17]. Thus, according to the American, if he wins the election, Poland will lose its main ally, the United States. This explains the concern of Polish journalists caused by Trump's words.

However, journalist E. Beletsky does not agree with this interpretation of the words of the US presidential candidate. He believes that the American was only convincing Europe that it needed to take a more serious approach to the problems of its own defense, which it should for the most part "take into its own hands" ^[4]. Trump, in his opinion, wanted to say that all NATO countries need to allocate a significant part of the budget to strengthen their defense capabilities, and if at least one country does not do this, then the entire burden of preparing for its defense will fall on the shoulders of other members of the North Atlantic Alliance, primarily the United States.

Beletsky also believes that the United States will not withdraw from NATO. He believes that the relevant decision will not get the required votes in the Senate. But Trump's words, from the journalist's point of view, are a signal to the Europeans, who must now take more care of their own safety. And Poland should continue to support the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, in his quest to get more weapons and ammunition ^[4].

In addition, Beletsky raises the question of the timing of Russia's attack on Europe. According to him, Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas believes that Moscow can attack NATO countries within three to five years, and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius talks about five to eight years. The journalist admits that it is impossible to determine the actual timing of Russia's attack, but believes that Europe needs to take Vladimir Putin's words and actions more seriously and build up its military potential ^[4].

However, Poles are not limited to remembering Trump's statements in 2020. Journalists cite another fact: on January 20, 2024, at a pre-election meeting in New Hampshire, he promised to decide the outcome of the "terrible war" between Russia and Ukraine if he won the election – to achieve the signing of a peace treaty ^[18]. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how Trump is going to achieve a truce, on what terms and to whom it will be beneficial.

The Polish press did not ignore the fact that at the end of January 2024, NATO noticeably intensified. Thus, in an article dated January 22, 2024, journalist Siwerczynski writes about the beginning of large-scale maneuvers in which Poland is also involved ^[16]. According to the Polish side, 100 brigades of the ground forces, 1,400 aircraft and 250 ships are taking part in them. However, there is no information about what exactly each NATO member country provided for the maneuvers. Nevertheless, it is known that the leadership of the Alliance considers these forces sufficient to repel Russia's attack from the east ^[16].

In order to defuse the tense atmosphere in society, Polish journalist J. Boyakovsky published an optimistic article on January 26, 2024, giving hope for peace talks on Ukraine and the natural elimination of the threat from Russia ^[6]. He cited information obtained by the American news agency Bloomberg L.P. from two anonymous sources close to the Kremlin. According to this information, in December 2023, Vladimir Putin made it clear to Washington that he was ready for peace talks on the Ukrainian issue. He allegedly wanted to abandon opposition to Ukraine's accession to NATO in exchange for Russian recognition of Crimea and the lands "seized" (the terminology of Polish journalists reflecting their opinion. – O. B.) after February 24, 2022, Russia's readiness for negotiations on Ukraine was confirmed by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov ^[6].

However, in April 2024, articles continued to appear in the Polish press reflecting the Polish side's fears of Russia's military successes and its allegedly preparing offensive against the West. For example, journalist V. Belyashin published unverified information about the involvement of Indians by the Russian side in a special operation ^[5]. According to her information, there are agents in India who offer young men from poor fishing villages to go to Russia for high-paying jobs in security companies. However, those who want to make good money do not get into companies, but into their own zone.

Another disturbing information is contained in an article by Marek A. Chikhotsky ^[7]. The author notes with regret that nowadays it is impossible to rely on Europe, which Poland has been striving for so much. In his opinion, an anti-European alliance is being formed in the international arena between Moscow, Beijing and Tehran. It is impossible to agree with his opinion: Russia's rapprochement with China and Iran is aimed at strengthening the security of these countries, and not preparing aggression against Europe.

Similar publications appeared in the second half of 2024. The threat from Russia still seems very serious to many Polish journalists and politicians. Thus, in the newspaper Rzeczpospolita at the end of December 2024, concerns were expressed about Russia's military cooperation with North Korea and an increase in the supply of Korean weapons to the Russian Federation ^[19].

Conclusion

Thus, in the Polish media of late 2023 – early 2024, the main external threat is called the invasion of Russia and the preventive measures proposed by the West in the form of arming Poland and creating a regional union under its auspices are highlighted. The Poles emphasize the need for timely and substantial Western assistance to Kiev and the activation of the armed forces of Ukraine in order to defeat Russia as soon as possible. Polish journalists often refer to the opinion of their European colleagues. There are also materials in the press containing distorted information about Russia's military plans and the course of its military operations. The analyzed articles demonstrate Poland's genuine fears of a Russian attack. Nevertheless, some Polish journalists do not lose hope for a peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the elimination of the military threat from Russia.