Analysis of the Impact of Sanctions on Russia's Economic Security: Challenges and Opportunities

Van Yabin Postgraduate student; Faculty of Public Administration Lomonosov Moscow State University; Lomonosov Moscow State University 119192, Russia, Moscow, Lomonosovsky ave., 27, building 4 msu.wangyabing@yandex.ru

The relevance of research. The relevance of the study of the impact of sanctions on Russia's economic security is due to the unprecedented increase in sanctions pressure on the country starting in 2022, which led to a significant transformation of economic relations at both the national and international levels. In modern conditions, the need for an in-depth analysis of the impact of sanctions restrictions on various aspects of the country's economic security and the search for effective mechanisms to adapt to new realities is of particular importance. The sanctions pressure affects key sectors of the Russian economy, which requires rethinking existing approaches to ensuring economic security, restructuring production and logistics chains, searching for new markets and sources of import of critical technologies and components.

The study of this issue becomes particularly relevant in the context of the need to ensure the technological sovereignty of the country, maintain food security and protect the financial system from external shocks. The importance of the topic is also determined by the need to develop effective measures to counter sanctions, search for new opportunities for economic development and the formation of effective import substitution strategies. The uniqueness of the current situation requires new approaches to the analysis and assessment of economic security, which determines the scientific novelty of the study.

The social significance of the study is determined by the need to minimize the negative impact of sanctions on the standard of living of the population and preserve social stability in the context of structural changes in the economy. Of particular relevance is the assessment of the long-term effects of sanctions on the development of the country and the identification of new areas of economic growth. The study of international experience in countering sanctions and the analysis of the possibilities of international cooperation in the new conditions are also of considerable scientific and practical interest.

Problem statement. The unprecedented increase in sanctions pressure on Russia starting in 2022 has created new challenges for the country's economic security and required a comprehensive rethink of existing approaches to ensuring it. The main problem is the need to assess the impact of sanctions on various aspects of Russia's economic security and to develop effective mechanisms for adapting the economy to new conditions. At the same time, there is a lack of systematic research that would comprehensively assess both the direct and indirect effects of sanctions on the country's economic security.

Methodology and research conditions. The methodological basis of the research includes a systematic approach to the analysis of economic phenomena and statistical analysis of macroeconomic indicators. The material basis of the study was made up of statistical materials from the Federal State Statistics Service, publicly available information resources, and the work of Russian researchers on this issue. Research conditions: the time period of the study covers 2010-2024; the main focus is on the period after 2022 as the time of the most intense sanctions pressure; the analysis is carried out taking into account the sectoral characteristics of the impact of sanctions on various sectors of the economy; the study covers both the financial sector and the real sector of the economy; transformations of foreign economic relations and structural changes in the economy are taken into account.

The results of the study. The present study is aimed at a detailed study of the dynamics of the main economic indicators in the period 2010-2024, assessing the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures taken and developing recommendations to ensure the sustainable development of the Russian economy in the face of external constraints. Special attention is paid to the analysis of structural changes in the economy, the transformation of foreign economic relations and the prospects for increasing the level of monetization as a key factor in stimulating economic growth.

This work is devoted to the study of the effects of restrictive measures imposed by Western countries on the economic stability of the Russian Federation during the period of extreme external pressure. The research is aimed at identifying the effects of sanctions policy and developing strategies to minimize their negative impact. The methodological framework includes the work of Russian researchers, as well as the use of complex analysis and statistical and economic tools. The sources of information are statistical materials from the Federal State Statistics Service and publicly available resources.

The sanctions pressure on Russia was initiated by the United States in 2012 and intensified in 2014 by the introduction of sectoral restrictions in the banking, energy and defense sectors. In response, Russia banned the import of food from unfriendly countries, which stimulated the development of the domestic agro-industrial complex. The policy of import substitution has spread to industry, contributing to the creation of new industries.

Experts estimate the total effect of the 2014 sanctions at $3 billion. The sanctioned organizations lost about a third of their profits and more than half of their capitalization. However, the sanctions had less negative impact on the Russian economy than the fall in oil prices and internal problems ^[1].

The introduction of economic restrictions against Russia has resulted in financial losses for the states that initiated them. In the period from 2013 to 2015, the cumulative damage to Western economies from reduced exports to the Russian Federation amounted to over $60 billion, with the European Union countries suffering the greatest damage.

In order to strengthen Russia's economic sovereignty, it is critically important to focus efforts on stimulating key knowledge-intensive industries focused on foreign markets. Special attention should be paid to the development of the space industry, pharmaceuticals, the defense complex and the information and communication technology sector ^[2].

Subsequent restrictive measures against Russia, imposed for various controversial reasons, suggest their true purpose is to undermine the national economy and weaken its foreign trade positions ^[3].

Moreover, by convincing partners to support these measures, the United States has benefited financially by replacing Russian pipeline gas on the European market with its liquefied fuel, which is more expensive due to high shipping costs.

The study of the effects of sanctions pressure on the Russian economy shows contradictory results. According to experts, despite the targeted nature and scale of the restrictions, their impact on the stability of the banking system and the Russian economy as a whole turned out to be insignificant. Nevertheless, there is a negative impact of sanctions on the activities of domestic companies. This is reflected in the narrowing of opportunities to raise funds for development, the application of monetary fines for non-compliance with sanctions rules, the introduction of individual restrictions for businessmen and possible criminal prosecution of managers.

According to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, in the period 2014-2024, the average annual negative impact of sanctions on GDP growth is estimated at 0.2 percentage points. This is significantly lower than the negative effect of the decline in oil prices, which is about 0.65 percentage points ^[4].

Experts predict that in the medium term, the economic damage to Russia from sanctions may reach 1-1.5% of GDP. However, long-term estimates indicate the possibility of a more significant slowdown in the country's economic growth. Barriers to the import of high-tech goods and the concomitant decrease in labor efficiency can increase economic losses by up to 9% of GDP.

The year 2022 was marked by a significant increase in sanctions pressure on Russia. The total number of restrictive measures has reached an unprecedented level, exceeding 11 thousand. Prior to the start of the special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, 2,695 sanctions were in effect. After that date, another 8,550 new restrictions were introduced, which indicates a sharp tightening of the sanctions policy against the Russian Federation. For contextualization: Iran's sanctions burden is approximately 3,600 restrictions, Syria's is about 2,600, and North Korea's is about 2,050 ^[5]. By 2024, the situation for Russia began to look much worse, which should be presented in the form of the following diagram:

Chart 1. Distribution of persons involved in sanctions by countries and facilities, 2024 ^[6]

An analysis of the presented chart shows a significant superiority in the number of sanctions restrictions on Russia compared to other countries in all categories. As of 2024, 3183 sanctions have been imposed against Russia against individuals, 3,873 against legal entities, and 523 restrictions relate to courts, which together amounts to 7,579 sanctions measures. For comparison, Iran, the next country after Russia in terms of the total number of sanctions, has significantly lower indicators: 726 sanctions against individuals, 996 against legal entities, and 323 restrictions on courts (2,045 sanctions in total). China, which ranks third in terms of the total number of restrictions, has been subject to 1,802 sanctions (154 individuals, 1,488 legal entities and 160 vessels). The difference in sanctions against legal entities is particularly significant, where Russia surpasses the nearest "competitor", China, by almost 2.6 times (3873 versus 1488). In terms of restrictions on individuals, Russia surpasses Belarus, which follows it (768 sanctions) by more than 4 times. With regard to ships, the Russian figures (523) are also significantly higher than those of other countries, where Iran's closest figure is 323 restrictions. Thus, the sanctions pressure on Russia in 2024 reached an unprecedented level, significantly exceeding the restrictive measures imposed against other countries, which indicates the continuation and strengthening of the trend observed since 2022.

The sanctions pressure on Russia covers many aspects, including the freezing of the state's foreign currency reserves, restrictions on transactions with Russian debt obligations, the blocking of accounts of a number of banks and their disconnection from SWIFT, as well as the freezing of assets of the National Settlement Depository. In addition, bans have been imposed on investments in the Russian economy, the import of a wide range of goods and services, and the export of energy resources and precious metals from Russia. The sanctions also affect the foreign assets of Russian citizens and companies, impose transport restrictions and provide for secondary sanctions for foreign firms continuing to cooperate with Russian partners. Here is an abbreviated and paraphrased version:

The study showed that the sanctions are mainly aimed at key sectors of the Russian economy: finance, energy, mining, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, electronics and transport.

By the end of 2022, a ban has been imposed on the export of over 200 types of products from Russia, including high-tech equipment, transport and electronics. At the same time, the import of goods to Russia in the amount of about $9 billion annually is limited.

At the same time, 2022 was marked by the massive withdrawal of large foreign oil companies from the Russian market and the gradual introduction of an EU embargo on the export of services and technologies to Russia. Despite this, domestic companies have adapted, increasing the number of wells by 7% and expanding the drilling area to 28 thousand square kilometers.

Experts foresaw the possibility of introducing financial restrictions from Western countries, including blocking international currency assets, freezing foreign accounts of citizens and cutting off banks from SWIFT. Such measures have already been applied before, for example, to Libya in 2011 and Kazakhstan in 2018 ^[7].

According to some researchers, the sanctions did not achieve their main goal of changing the foreign policy course of the Russian state, nor did they lead to the collapse of the national economy. A.A. Shukayeva identifies the key determinants of the Russian economy's resistance to exogenous destabilizing factors:

1. Russia's dominant position in global exports of raw materials, ensuring the stability of fiscal revenues in the face of price and volume volatility.

2. The capacity of the domestic market, which supports economic activity in conditions of external isolation.

3. The effectiveness of anti-crisis interventions at the federal and regional levels. ^[8].

Current statistics from 2023 indicate ongoing fluctuations in the Russian economy. Official Rosstat sources report a 2.1% increase in real GDP in the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same period of the previous year. At the same time, the GDP deflator index reached 112.3%, which indicates restrained inflationary pressure on the country's economic system ^[9].

During the year, Russia's international reserves increased by 4.5%, reaching $606 billion by the end of 2023.

During 2023, the US currency strengthened against the ruble by 19.3881 units. The peak value of the dollar was observed in early October, reaching 101.3598 rubles, while the lowest exchange rate was recorded in mid-January, amounting to 67.5744 rubles per dollar.

As of December 2023, the money supply increased by 17.5% compared to December 2022, reaching 84.5 trillion rubles. Of these, cash outside the banking system amounted to 15.8 trillion rubles, and non—cash - 68.7 trillion rubles.

In 2023, the number of registered organizations reached 310,000, while the number of liquidated reached 290,000. This shows a 6.9% increase in the number of registered companies, which indicates an improvement in the business climate.

The total volume of industrial production in 2023 increased by 1.5% compared to 2022. In particular, production in the manufacturing industry increased by 2.8%, and in the mining sector — by 3.0%.

The volume of agricultural production increased by 4.2%, reaching 9.55 trillion rubles. The gross grain harvest amounted to 145 million tons, which is 4% less than in 2023, but still higher than the average level over the past five years. Grain yield was 34.5 hundredweight per 1 hectare of harvested area.

Retail trade turnover increased by 3.0%, while wholesale trade showed an increase of 4.2% over the year. In December 2023, turnover increased by 11.3% for the retail sector and 20.1% for the wholesale sector compared to December 2022.

In 2023, consumer price inflation dropped to 6.8%. Producer prices increased by 5.9% in industry and 4.3% in agriculture. Food prices rose by 5.5%, non-food products - by 4.7%, services - by 6.0%.

By December 2023, the annual increase in food prices was 12.4%. Sugar (35.7%), cereals (22.1%) and pasta (20.5%) have significantly increased in price. Among non-food products, the largest price increases were for detergents (24.3%), electrical goods (18.5%) and building materials (12.1%).

In 2023, there was an increase in prices for various services. Housing and communal services tariffs increased by 9.4%, the cost of medical care increased by 10.3%, and public transport fares rose by 9%. Communication services have become more expensive by 8.5%, hotel accommodation - by 4.9%, educational services - by 5.7%. Insurance services showed the greatest growth, rising in price by 25.6%.

As a result of the analysis of the dynamics of household incomes in the Russian Federation for 2023, the following key trends and indicators have been identified:

1. Dynamics of real incomes of the population:

According to expert estimates, in 2023 there was a significant increase in real monetary incomes of the population by 4.6% compared to the previous year. Moreover, real disposable income showed an even more significant increase of 5.4%. This positive trend indicates an improvement in the material well-being of citizens and can be interpreted as an indicator of the recovery of economic activity after a period of instability ^[10].

2. Structural changes in the composition of monetary income:

An analysis of the structure of monetary incomes of the population in the fourth quarter of 2023 revealed significant changes compared to the same period in 2022. There was an increase in the share of income from business activities, wages and other cash receipts. The growth in the share of wages is particularly noteworthy, which increased by 1.3 percentage points (from 54.4% to 55.7%) in the quarter and by 1.5 percentage points (from 57.5% to 59.0%) year-on-year. This trend may indicate an increased role of labor income in shaping the well-being of the population.

3. Dynamics of social benefits:

The volume of social transfers to the population in the fourth quarter of 2023 reached 5.1 trillion rubles, which accounted for 18.6% of the total structure of monetary income. In annual terms, the volume of social benefits increased by 1.2 trillion rubles, reaching 17.2 trillion rubles (19.5% of the income structure). This increase can be interpreted as an increase in social support measures for the population by the state ^[11].

4. Wage trends:

The labor incomes of Russians have increased significantly. By the end of 2023, the average monthly remuneration reached 83,684 rubles. This is 16.3% more than in the same period of 2022. For the whole year, the increase was 14.1%. Taking into account inflation, the actual purchasing power of salaries increased by 7.8% compared to 2022. Such dynamics indicates a noticeable improvement in the financial situation of the working population ^[12].

5. Dynamics of pension payments:

The average size of assigned pensions also showed a positive trend. As of July 2024, it amounted to 20,975 rubles, an increase of 5.9% compared to the same period in 2022 ^[13]. In annual terms, the average amount of pensions awarded increased by 9.3%, reaching 19,490 rubles. The actual amount of pensions awarded in 2023 increased by 3.3% compared to 2022, which indicates an increase in the standard of living of pensioners.

As part of this work, it seems necessary to propose indicators based on the analysis of which it will be possible to draw conclusions about the impact of sanctions on the economic security of our country. E.I. Solnov and M.E.U. Zhuraboev suggest referring to the following indicators: foreign trade indicators (export and import volumes, geographical structure of trade, availability of critical technologies and components, degree of complexity of logistics chains and level of transportation costs, amount of foreign exchange earnings from energy exports), investment indicators (number of foreign investments, representation of international companies in domestic markets, the investment attractiveness of the country, the number of long-term investment projects) ^[14],[15].

The analysis of foreign trade and investment indicators to assess the country's economic security seems justified from several key positions. First of all, foreign trade indicators are fundamental indicators reflecting the degree of integration of the national economy into the global economy and its ability to effectively participate in the international division of labor ^[16]. The volume of exports and imports directly characterize the competitiveness of the national economy and its ability to generate foreign exchange earnings necessary to ensure import purchases ^[17]. The geographical structure of trade indicates the degree of diversification of foreign economic relations and the potential risks of dependence on individual trading partners ^[18]. Of particular importance is the analysis of the availability of critical technologies and components, as this directly affects the technological independence of the country and the ability to support key production processes. The complexity of logistics chains and the level of transportation costs reflect the effectiveness of foreign trade operations and their impact on the final cost of products. The volume of foreign exchange earnings from energy exports is a critical indicator for commodity-oriented economies, determining their ability to finance imports and maintain macroeconomic stability.

From the point of view of investment indicators, the volume of foreign investments serves as an indicator of the attractiveness of the national economy for international capital and a source of technological development ^[19]. The presence of international companies in domestic markets promotes technology transfer, increased competition, and improved product and service quality. The country's investment attractiveness reflects the general state of the business environment, the quality of institutions, and the prospects for economic growth. The number of long-term investment projects indicates investors' confidence in the stability of the economic system and its long-term prospects.

The opposite point of view may be that excessive dependence on foreign trade operations and foreign investments can create risks to economic security ^[20]. A high proportion of imports in critical sectors can make the economy vulnerable to external pressures. The significant presence of foreign capital can limit economic sovereignty and create risks of capital outflow in times of crisis.

The balanced approach that we follow in this paper suggests that the optimal state is one in which the economy maintains a sufficient level of openness to take advantage of international trade and investment, while maintaining the necessary level of economic self-sufficiency in strategically important sectors. It is important to take into account that for different countries, depending on the size of their economy, the availability of resources and the level of technological development, the optimal ratio of these indicators may vary significantly.

Thus, the analysis of these indicators makes it possible to comprehensively assess the degree of economic security of the country, identify potential risks and determine the necessary measures to minimize them. At the same time, it is important to consider these indicators not in isolation, but in the context of the general economic strategy of the state and taking into account the specific features of the national economy.

As for the volume of exports and imports, they should be presented in the form of the following tables:

Table 1. Foreign trade of the Russian Federation in 2010-2021 ^[21]

Table 2. Distribution of exports and imports of the Russian Federation by major partner countries (in actual prices; as a percentage of the total) ^[21]

Based on the presented data, the following analysis of the dynamics of Russia's foreign trade in 2010-2021 can be carried out. Russia's foreign trade turnover showed significant fluctuations: if in 2010 it amounted to 638.4 billion US dollars, by 2020 it decreased to 573.6 billion dollars, but in 2021 it showed a significant increase to 798.4 billion dollars. Exports traditionally prevail over imports in the structure of foreign trade turnover, and this ratio persists throughout the period under review.

Analyzing the geographical structure of trade, we can note a significant change in the role of the main trading partners. The most noticeable is the significant strengthening of China's position: its share in Russian exports increased from 5.1% in 2010 to 14% in 2021, and in imports from 17% to 25.1%. This indicates a significant shift in Russia's foreign trade relations towards the east.

At the same time, there is a decrease in the share of traditional European partners. Thus, the share of the Netherlands in exports decreased from 13.6% to 8.5%, Germany - from 6.3% to 6%, Italy - from 6.9% to 3.8%. It is interesting to note a temporary increase in the UK's share of exports to 6.9% in 2020, followed by a decrease to 4.5% in 2021.

In trade with the CIS countries, there is a relative stability of indicators, with slight fluctuations. Belarus and Kazakhstan remain key partners in this area, and their combined share in exports and imports remains fairly stable.

It is important to note that in absolute terms, the volume of trade with non-CIS countries significantly exceeds trade with CIS countries. In 2021, exports to non-CIS countries amounted to $427 billion against $67.4 billion to the CIS countries, and imports amounted to $271.7 billion against $32.3 billion, respectively.

Thus, it can be concluded that Russia's foreign trade relations have undergone a significant transformation over the period under review, characterized primarily by the strengthening of the Asian vector (especially in relations with China) while reducing the role of European partners. At the same time, the overall structure of trade remains quite diversified, which can be considered as a positive factor from the point of view of the country's economic security. However, the growing dependence on trade with China may pose certain risks in the long term.

As for technologies and components, the following should be said about them. Today, Russia has limited access to a number of critically important technologies and components, which poses significant risks to the country's economic security ^[22]. First of all, it should be noted the acute shortage of modern semiconductors and high-end microelectronic components (process technology of 7 nm and less), which complicates the development of the domestic electronics industry and the creation of modern computing systems ^[23]. This could lead to a technological lag in digital technology, artificial intelligence, and supercomputers.

Especially sensitive is the restriction of access to technologies and equipment for the oil and gas industry, in particular, to modern equipment for deep-sea drilling, development of complex deposits and LNG production ^[24]. This may negatively affect the ability to maintain and increase hydrocarbon production in the long term, which is critical for an economy that is heavily dependent on energy exports.

There is a shortage of modern composite materials, avionics and engines of certain types in the aviation industry, which makes it difficult to develop civil aircraft and maintain the existing fleet of aircraft ^[25]. This poses risks to the country's transport connectivity and the development of the aviation industry.

The machine tool industry lacks access to advanced numerical control systems and high-precision components, which limits the possibilities for industrial modernization and the development of high-tech industries. This can lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of industrial products and dependence on imports of finished products.

In the telecommunications sector, access to modern network equipment and 5G technologies is limited, which may slow down the development of digital infrastructure and the introduction of modern telecommunications services ^[26]. This carries the risks of lagging behind in the field of digital transformation of the economy.

In the automotive industry, there is a shortage of modern electronic components, control systems and specialized production equipment, which affects the quality and competitiveness of domestic products. This may lead to an increased technological gap with leading automakers.

Access to some modern technologies for the production of medicines and medical equipment is limited in the pharmaceutical industry, which poses risks to the country's healthcare and biosafety ^[27]. This may affect the ability to provide the population with the necessary medicines and medical equipment.

The consequences of these restrictions on economic security can be multifaceted: a decrease in the technological level of industry, a decrease in the competitiveness of the economy, an increase in dependence on imports of finished products, a slowdown in economic growth and innovative development. In the long term, this may lead to the preservation of technological backwardness and a decrease in the standard of living of the population.

N.V. Sergeeva, N.V. and P.S. Lisunova, as part of their research, established how logistics routes have changed after 2022 ^[28]. In particular, there was a closure of airspace, which resulted in: a ban on flights by Russian airlines over the EU and a number of other countries; the need to build bypass routes that increase flight time by 2-3 hours; an increase in fuel consumption by 25-30% due to the lengthening of routes, an increase in the cost of air transportation by 30-40%. Maritime logistics also suffered significantly, as there were: the refusal of the largest container carriers (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM) to work with Russia, an increase in container delivery time by 20-30 days, an increase in the cost of sea transportation by 2-3 times, the need to rebuild routes through the ports of Turkey, the UAE and Asian countries. Land transport faced an increase in the load on the eastern border crossings with China by 40-50%, an increase in waiting time at the border from 3-5 to 10-15 days, an increase in the cost of road transportation by 30-40%, and the congestion of transport corridors through Kazakhstan by 150-200%. As a result, the following changes took place in the routes: the reorientation from the Baltic ports to the ports of the Far East, an increase in cargo traffic through Turkey by 2-2.5 times, an increase in transit through Kazakhstan by 35-40%, and the activation of the Northern Sea Route.

These changes have created complex risks for the country's economic security, including: an increase in the cost of production and sales, a decrease in the competitiveness of Russian enterprises in international markets, rising inflationary pressures, a slowdown in trade and the need for significant investments in the development of alternative transport infrastructure. To minimize negative consequences, systematic work is required to develop new logistics routes, modernize transport infrastructure, and optimize international trade processes.

Finally, let's present in the form of a diagram the amount of foreign exchange earnings from energy exports.:

Chart 2. Exports of Russian petroleum products, in millions of US dollars ^[21]

An analysis of the dynamics of Russia's petroleum products exports in the period 2010-2021 demonstrates the uneven development of this sector of foreign trade, which significantly affects the country's economic security. In 2010, exports amounted to 271,888 million US dollars, by 2019 the figure had slightly decreased to 268,426 million US dollars, which indicates the relative stability of exports during this period. However, in 2020, there was a sharp drop in exports to 172,952 million US dollars, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a general decline in global energy demand. In 2021, the indicator recovered and grew to 277,808 million US dollars, which even exceeded the pre-crisis level of 2010.

This dynamic has a significant impact on Russia's economic security. Firstly, the high dependence of the economy on the export of petroleum products poses risks to the stability of the state budget and the balance of payments of the country ^[29]. Secondly, significant fluctuations in export volumes, as happened in 2020, demonstrate the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks. Thirdly, the recovery of exports in 2021 shows the ability of the oil sector to adapt, which is a positive factor for economic security. Nevertheless, the continued high share of petroleum products in the export structure indicates the need to diversify the economy in order to reduce dependence on the raw materials sector and increase the sustainability of the country's economic system in the long term.

Discussion of the research results. Under unprecedented sanctions pressure, the Russian economy faced serious challenges, which nevertheless stimulated the processes of adaptation and transformation of the country's economic system. On the one hand, it is impossible to deny the significant negative impact of sanctions on a number of key sectors of the economy. A number of researchers are convinced that in the period 2020-2024 there were serious disruptions of logistics chains, which resulted in an increase in delivery time by 20-30 days and an increase in the cost of sea transportation by 2-3 times. The waiting time at the borders has increased from 3-5 to 10-15 days, which has created an additional burden on businesses.

The problem of dependence on imports of high-tech components has become particularly acute. The Russian industry is faced with a shortage of modern semiconductors, limited access to technologies for the oil and gas industry, a shortage of components in the aviation industry, and problems with access to modern telecommunications equipment. In addition, there are certain risks to pharmaceutical safety due to limited access to modern drug production technologies. The same researchers believe that Russia has not yet been able to fully cope with the sanctions pressure, which we cannot agree with for the following reasons.

The Russian economy has demonstrated a high adaptability. There has been an effective restructuring of foreign trade relations, in particular, trade relations with China have significantly strengthened, whose share in exports has increased to 14% and in imports to 25.1%. At the same time, it was possible to maintain a positive trade balance, and the foreign trade turnover reached 798.4 billion dollars in 2021.

The logistics routes have been successfully adapted: there has been a reorientation to the ports of the Far East, cargo traffic through Turkey has increased 2-2.5 times, the Northern Sea Route has become more active, and transit through Kazakhstan has increased by 35-40%. The energy sector has also demonstrated resilience: exports of petroleum products in 2021 recovered to $277,808 million, exceeding pre-crisis levels in 2010.

The diversification of economic ties has become an important factor.: Stable relations with the CIS countries have been maintained, new partnerships are developing in Asia, and settlements in national currencies with friendly countries are underway. Thus, despite the serious challenges, the Russian economy demonstrates the ability to adapt and find new opportunities for development in the changed conditions.

Based on the analysis of the economic situation in Russia by the end of 2024, it can be concluded that the government's anti-crisis measures taken in response to Western sanctions have significantly contributed to the stabilization of the country's population's living standards.

An analysis of the economic situation in the Russian Federation in the context of increased external sanctions pressure has revealed a set of structural imbalances that have been forming in the national economic system for a long time. In particular, there was an excessive concentration of export flows in the raw materials sector, which indicates an insufficient diversification of the economy and its dependence on the conjuncture of global commodity markets. In addition, limited geographical diversification of energy export routes has emerged, which increases the vulnerability of the energy sector to geopolitical risks. Technological dependence on imports has also become a significant factor in economic instability, indicating the insufficient development of domestic high-tech industries. An additional destabilizing element is the high level of external corporate debt, which poses risks to the financial stability of enterprises with limited access to international capital markets. Finally, a significant outflow of capital indicates an insufficient attractiveness of the domestic investment environment and may negatively affect the long-term prospects for economic growth ^[30].

In 2024, the Russian economy is functioning in the context of ongoing challenges related to the sanctions regime.:

- oil production has stabilized, but at a level 3-5% lower than the pre-sanctions period;

- energy exports decreased by 5-8% in value terms due to the reorientation to new markets;

- technological limitations remain in a number of industries, including mechanical engineering, aerospace and electronics industries;

- The budget deficit was reduced to 1.8% of GDP due to cost optimization and increased non-resource revenues ^[31].

The Russian government continues its policy of economic diversification, focusing on reasonable import substitution and the development of export potential in non-resource sectors.

Forecasts of international organizations regarding the Russian economy have become more optimistic. According to IMF estimates, Russia's GDP growth in 2024 was 2.5%, which exceeds the growth rate of a number of developed countries.

Given the long-term nature of the sanctions pressure, Russia's economic policy is aimed at creating a new growth model with a greater focus on domestic demand, both investment and consumer.

Special attention is paid to supporting the manufacturing industry, in particular, providing enterprises with working capital. This is necessary to achieve sustainable GDP growth rates of 4-5% per year, which will overcome the consequences of the crisis and ensure the long-term development of the economy.

In the context of ensuring sustainable economic development of the Russian Federation, the issue of optimizing the level of monetization of the economy is of particular relevance. According to economic theory and international practice, the optimal value of the monetization coefficient for the stable functioning of the economic system is about 70%. An analysis of the dynamics of this indicator in Russia shows an ambiguous trend: in 2020, the threshold level of economic security (50%) was exceeded by 4.65 percentage points, reaching 54.65%. However, in 2021, there was a decrease to 50.65%, which is significantly lower than the global average (125%) and significantly lower than in developed economies, where the monetization coefficient often exceeds 150% ^[32].

Insufficient monetization of the economy combined with limited access to foreign financial resources generates a set of negative economic phenomena that can potentially significantly slow down the socio-economic development of the state. Among the key consequences of this situation are the following: firstly, there is an underfunding of strategically important development programs, which can lead to a slowdown in modernization processes in the economy and a decrease in the well-being of citizens; secondly, there is a reduction in liquidity in the banking sector, creating the risk of a systemic financial crisis; thirdly, there is a tendency to a decrease in real incomes of the population, which leads to a compression of domestic demand and, as a result, to a slowdown in economic growth; finally, there is a danger of a return to inefficient barter schemes of mutual settlements between economic agents and an increase in the likelihood of a non-payment crisis, which together can significantly reduce the effectiveness of economic interactions in the national economy.

In the context of a reduction in the inflow of foreign investment caused by geopolitical factors, it seems advisable to implement a set of measures to increase the investment attractiveness of the Russian ruble. One of the key tools in this direction may be a targeted emission mechanism aimed at financing strategically important innovative projects in the real sector of the economy. The implementation of this approach involves the formation of a public-private partnership system based on the conclusion of contracts between government agencies and business entities.

In the context of modern geopolitical transformations, there is a significant reconfiguration of the vectors of commodity flows in the Russian Federation, characterized by a shift from the west to the east. Parallel to this process, alternative import mechanisms are being intensified. These phenomena create an urgent need for the conceptualization and implementation of innovative financial instruments.

The development and implementation of highly reliable financial transaction systems is becoming a priority within this paradigm. A key characteristic of these systems should be their autonomy from the banking structures of states that display an unfriendly position towards the Russian Federation. Moreover, these systems must function independently of currencies and communication networks for the transmission of financial information controlled by the aforementioned States.

As part of the strategy of diversifying foreign economic relations and minimizing currency risks, it seems necessary to intensify the process of transition to settlements in national currencies with trading partners from friendly countries. Given the current geo-economic situation, the most promising areas for the development of this practice are cooperation with India and China. In this context, it is advisable to encourage the use of the ruble, yuan and rupee as the main currencies for international settlements by Russian enterprises.

The implementation of the above-mentioned measures has the potential not only to offset the negative effects of external constraints, but also to create the foundation for a qualitative transformation of the Russian economy, increasing its sustainability and competitiveness at the global level.

Conclusions and further research directions.

- The conducted research has shown a significant impact of sanctions pressure on Russia's economic security, affecting all key sectors of the economy and requiring significant restructuring of economic ties and logistics chains.;

- The main channels of sanctions' impact on the country's economic security have been identified, including restrictions on access to international financial markets, technologies, and certain categories of goods;

- The study confirmed the need for a structural transformation of the economy in the direction of increasing its self-sufficiency while maintaining a certain level of integration into the global economic system;

- The effectiveness of a number of anti-crisis measures has been established, in particular, in the field of import substitution and the reorientation of foreign economic relations to new markets.

Possible directions for further research:

- In-depth study of the effectiveness of various mechanisms for adapting the economy to sanctions pressure in the long term;

- Study of the potential for the development of new logistics routes and trade partnerships in the context of sanctions restrictions;

- Analysis of the possibilities of technological development and innovation potential in conditions of limited access to foreign technologies;

- Study of the effectiveness of the transition to settlements in national currencies and the development of alternative financial mechanisms;

- Study of the impact of structural changes in the economy on the social sphere and the standard of living of the population.

These areas of research can contribute to the development of more effective strategies to ensure Russia's economic security in the face of ongoing sanctions pressure.