The turn and development of Russian foreign policy towards Africa in the context of US-European sanctions, 2014-2024

Syue Fuzhun ORCID: 0000-0002-2622-7516 Postgraduate student; Department of Theory and History of International Relations; Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 29 Magellan str., Moscow, 117198, Russia xuefurong111@gmail.com Other publications by this author     Aua Jeremaih Akuro Akuro ORCID: 0000-0002-8085-0894 Postgraduate student; Department of Theory and History of International Relations; Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 14 acuro96@gmail.com Achonwa Ethel Chinwe Postgraduate student; Department of Theory and History of International Relations; Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 22 Miklukho-Maklaya str., Moscow, 117198, Russia ethelchinwe@mail.ru

Ngoie Sophie Tatiana Postgraduate student; Department of Theory and History of International Relations; Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 15 Miklukho-Maklaya str., Moscow, 117198, Russia sophie.ngoye.sn@gmail.com

Introduction

Against the backdrop of comprehensive economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West, there has been a significant shift in Russian foreign policy. Africa, with its rich resources, growing market demand and relatively weak international sanctions pressure, has become a key region for Russian diplomacy. Russia quickly adjusted its strategy in response to the sanctions and launched extensive cooperation with African countries in the fields of energy, economy and agriculture. This has not only strengthened Russia's economic and strategic influence in Africa, but also demonstrated Russia's diplomatic transformation in search of new partners in a multipolar international system.

The aim of this study is to analyse the development of Russia-Africa relations in the period 2014-2024, and to explore the dynamics of Russia's foreign policy turn and the strategic considerations behind it during this period. By taking a comprehensive look at Russia-Africa relations, the paper seeks to reveal how Russia has refocused its diplomacy against the backdrop of Western sanctions in order to expand its influence and strategic position on a global scale.

In order to better understand this shift, the paper uses structural realism and power shift theory as an analytical framework to explain Russia's diplomatic choices in the changing international power landscape. By analysing the development of Russian-African relations, this paper not only provides a new perspective for understanding Russia's diplomatic strategy, but also provides an empirical basis for the application of international relations theory and looks ahead to the future development of Russian-African relations.

Theoretical framework

Using structural realism and power shift theory as a central framework, this paper analyses Russia's foreign policy turn towards Africa in the wake of Western sanctions. Structural realism emphasises that in an international state of anarchy, states must cope with security dilemmas and the pressure of the balance of power in order to maintain their survival, and constantly pursue power and influence. In the face of factors such as isolation and a deteriorating international environment brought about by U.S.-European sanctions, Russia has adjusted its global strategy towards unsanctioned regions such as Africa in order to maintain its relative power in the international system. This diplomatic shift can be seen as Russia's strategy of seeking to cope with the redistribution of global power and maintain its international status, in line with the logic of power maximisation emphasised by structural realism^[1].

At the same time, the theory of power shift further explains why Russia has prioritised Africa as a priority region for cooperation in its strategic realignment. The theory states that when a country's relative power slips or rises, the global power landscape changes dynamically, triggering conflicts or adjustments between countries. By deepening its cooperation with African countries, Russia has not only expanded its influence in emerging markets economically and militarily, but has also responded to Western sanctions and filled its losses in the European and American systems through this transfer of power. This strategy reflects Russia's proactive behaviour in adapting to changes in the global power landscape, and also marks its efforts to construct a new balance of power in the global system and challenge the Western-dominated international order^[2].

Russia's foreign policy development with Africa

In 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the diplomatic legacy of the Soviet era.

However, this phase was characterised by severe domestic economic and political crises, and Russia's foreign policy focus shifted to Europe, the United States and the CIS, with Africa being marginalised. The downturn in Russian-African relations during this phase was mainly due to the shift in Russia's global strategy from ideological confrontation to its own domestic economic recovery. For Russia, Africa's strategic position declined during this period, and Russia did not have enough resources to maintain its African policy during the Soviet era. It closed some projects and flights in Africa and demanded that African countries repay loans, etc^[3]. Therefore, Russia-Africa relations were relatively stagnant during this period^[4].

When Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, Russia's economy recovered and it gradually resumed its global diplomatic strategy and began to refocus on the importance of Africa as an emerging market. Since then Russia has gradually realised the economic potential of Africa^[5].

Cooperation with African countries has begun to pick up, but it remains limited in scale and the diplomatic focus is more on diplomatic relations with Europe and the United States. Since 2001, Russia has strengthened its cooperation with Africa through a number of high-level visits covering the military, technological and trade spheres. Separate visits by Russian presidents to several African countries to promote energy and trade cooperation and to reaffirm Russia's focus on the region suggest that Russia is refocusing on its traditional geopolitical interests.

The Crimean crisis of 2014 became an important turning point in Russian foreign policy. Since 2014, Russia's foreign policy towards Africa has shown a remarkable turn, gradually becoming a new diplomatic priority for Russia and growing rapidly over the next decade.

In order to break the diplomatic isolation brought about by Western sanctions, Russia has intensively carried out high-level diplomatic visits. in 2015 and 2017, Putin visited Egypt twice, consolidating Russian-Egyptian relations as its key partner in North Africa. in 2018, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov paid a visit to five African countries, and in the same year, Putin visited South Africa for the third time, which further deepened Russia's cooperation with major African countries. These visits not only strengthened political ties between Russia and Africa, but also laid the foundation for deeper cooperation afterwards.

An important milestone in Russian-African relations was reached in October 2019, when the first Russia-Africa Summit was successfully held in Sochi, marking Russia's return to Africa^[6]. Representatives of 54 African countries and eight African regional integration organisations gathered. The summit gave a significant boost to cooperation between the parties in such areas as energy, infrastructure, minerals and the military. During the meeting, the parties signed 92 agreements totalling about 1 trillion roubles.

Demonstrating the overall enhancement of Russian-African relations. By forgiving $20 billion in debt to African countries, Russia has expressed its commitment to helping African countries to preserve their sovereignty and resolve their internal problems. By strengthening its cooperation with Africa, Russia hopes to achieve a rebalancing of the global power structure and to consolidate its influence in Africa and expand its voice in international affairs^[7].

In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict further shattered Russia's relations with the West. During this period “African countries will not only need to make political and diplomatic choices, but also to cope with the resulting multiple crises in food, energy and finance”^[8].

This has prompted Russia to accelerate its diplomatic turn towards the countries of the South, particularly Africa. Africa's growing importance in the international system has made it one of Russia's key partners in strengthening strategic cooperation.

The second Russia-Africa Summit was held in July 2023 against this backdrop, marking a further escalation of relations between the two countries. The summit demonstrated the expansion of Russian-African cooperation from traditional military and energy cooperation to a multidisciplinary and multilevel framework of cooperation, including economic, agricultural, scientific, technological and cultural aspects^[9].

As the continent's economic power and international political influence increase, Russia, by deepening its relations with African countries, seeks not only to break the isolation brought about by Western sanctions, but also to occupy an important position in the global multipolarisation process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated at the beginning of 2024 that Russian-African relations had reached a “truly strategic level”^[10], a strategic partnership that reflects not only Russia's geopolitical presence in Africa, but also its ambition to shape a new international order on a global scale.

Russia is facing a tougher international environment, which has given further impetus to its multifaceted cooperation with Africa. Africa has become an important strategic partner for Russia in the global political game, especially in dealing with the Western-dominated global order and promoting the development of multipolarity in the world, and Africa is an important diplomatic tool for Russia. The expansion of Russian-African relations from traditional military and energy cooperation to more diversified areas shows that Russian-African cooperation has shifted from strategic to strategic.

Motivations for Russia's foreign policy turn towards Africa

In the aftermath of the Crimean crisis in 2014, Russia's foreign policy towards Africa has shifted from a strategic to a tactical approach in economic, political and military terms, and has resulted in a rapid development of Russian-African relations.

1. Economic dynamics

Economic co-operation is one of the central driving forces in the development of Russian-African relations, especially when Western sanctions limit Russia's room for manoeuvre in traditional markets, and Africa becomes an important alternative market and economic partner.

Following the Crimean crisis in 2014, the West imposed a series of harsh economic sanctions on Russia, and by early May 2024, the EU had imposed thirteen consecutive rounds of sanctions on Russia^[11]. This has significantly limited Russia's economic engagement with the US and European markets, particularly in the areas of energy exports, the financial system and high technology. In order to cope with its economic difficulties, Russia has accelerated its exploration of African markets and sought new economic partners.

The continent is rich in natural resources and fast-growing markets.2023 At the second Russia-Africa Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that more than 30 energy projects are currently being developed in 16 African countries^[12].

By strengthening cooperation with African countries in the areas of energy, minerals, infrastructure and other areas, Russia will be able to expand its export markets and gain access to much-needed resources, while at the same time creating new investment opportunities for its own enterprises. In particular, there is great potential for cooperation between Russia and African countries in the development of oil, gas and mineral resources^[13].

Many countries in Africa are in the process of industrialisation and have a strong need for infrastructure development^[14]. By providing technical support, equipment and funds, Russia is participating in infrastructure construction in Africa and enhancing its economic influence in Africa. In addition, agriculture is an important area of Russian-African economic cooperation, and many African countries depend on Russia for food imports, especially after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis^[15].

2. Political motivations

In its global foreign policy, Russia is increasingly focusing on expanding its international discourse and political influence by building political alliances with African countries. Political motivation is another important driver of the development of Russian-African relations. Increased emphasis on Africa in new official documents. Response to Western diplomatic isolation: the push for a multipolar world order:

Chinese scholars Zhang Jian and Li Xinlong have compiled Africa's ranking on Russia's regional priorities based on information from the official website of the Russian Presidential Network (http://kremlin.ru/), where Africa has moved up from tenth place in 2016 to sixth place in 2023, ahead of Europe and the United States^[16].

In the face of diplomatic isolation and sanctions pressure from the West, Russia needs to find new allies in the international system to undermine the West's dominance of international institutions.54 African countries occupy important positions in multilateral institutions such as the United Nations and are among the largest regional political forces in the world. By engaging in multilateral diplomacy with African countries, Russia can increase its influence in international affairs and resist Western diplomatic pressure. In the context of the Ukrainian crisis, African countries have chosen neutrality, refusing to directly criticise Russia or join international pressure^[17].

Russia has consistently supported the development of global multipolarity, and through its multilateral diplomacy with African countries it seeks to break the unipolar world order dominated by the West. As a region with a large number of developing countries and emerging markets, Africa is an important link in the development of global multipolarity. By deepening its relations with African countries, Russia hopes to promote the establishment of a more multipolar international system, thereby weakening the dominant position of the West and securing more strategic space for itself on the international stage^[18].

3. Military and security motivations

Military and security cooperation is also an important part of Russia's foreign policy turn towards Africa. Russia has long been one of the main suppliers of weapons to African countries. Many African countries have a strong demand for Russian military equipment, especially in maintaining internal security and dealing with insurgency and terrorism, and Russian arms exports are competitive in Africa. Through arms sales, military training and security co-operation, Russia has not only made significant economic gains, but has also established a strategic military presence in the African region.

The rapid development of Russian-African relations is the result of multiple factors. In terms of economic motivation, after facing Western sanctions, Russia is in urgent need of easing its economic pressure through Africa's resources and markets; in terms of political motivation, the important role played by African countries in the international system has made Russia see them as key cooperation targets for breaking the Western-dominated international order and promoting global multipolarity; and in terms of military and security motivation, through arms exports and military co-operation, Russia has both achieved economic interests and strengthen its military and security influence in Africa.

Concrete results of the implementation of Russian-African foreign policy

1. Economic cooperation

Energy and resource development: Russia's cooperation in the field of energy and resource development has been extremely effective, particularly in projects for the use of underground resources, either through joint development with African countries or through the acquisition of local enterprises, which has not only given impetus to the development of the economies of African countries, but has also created conditions for sustainable growth in Africa^[19].

As part of the project, Russia is helping African countries to master advanced technologies and management experience through the training of local engineering and management personnel, thereby implementing and promoting Russian foreign policy locally and further strengthening deeper Russian-African co-operation in the field of energy and resources.

Infrastructure projects: Russia is actively involved in the construction of infrastructure in Africa, participating in such projects as roads, ports, power facilities and others by providing technical, financial and equipment support. For example, Russian companies have carried out projects for the construction of nuclear power plants in Egypt and Algeria, which have not only contributed to the modernisation of local infrastructure, but also increased the international competitiveness of Russian companies.

Agricultural and food co-operation: After the Ukraine crisis, Russia's position in the global food market has increased significantly^[20], and many countries in Africa rely on Russian food supplies, especially wheat. By providing food aid and strengthening agricultural cooperation, Russia has consolidated its economic relations with African countries.

The data^[21] show that in 2021, Russia's trade with Africa increased by 22% to $17.7 billion, of which Russia exported $14.7 billion and imported $3 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $11.7 billion. Russia imports mainly food and agricultural raw materials from Africa (64%), while exports are dominated by grains, arms and oil products (70%). In 2022, Russian-African trade increases to $18 billion, with food crops accounting for 25%, oil and petroleum products for 22%, and weapons also being a significant part of exports. It is expected that the volume of Russian-African trade could double by 2030. Russia's imports from Africa are mainly foodstuffs, accounting for about 60%.

The Director of the Department for Development of Bilateral Cooperation noted that “the volume of Russia's foreign trade with African countries in 2022 will amount to about $18 billion, and that about 25% of Russia's supplies to the African market will come from wheat and blended wheat, and another 22% from oil and petroleum products. Many large Russian companies operate in African countries. Between 60% and 70% of Russian investment is in the exploration and production of minerals. About 30 Russian companies operate in this sector. By 2030, the volume of trade between Russia and Africa could at least double^[22]”.

2. Political cooperation

At the present time, the Russian Federation and the countries of Africa are jointly facing an urgent task: the construction of a more just and rational international order that responds to the characteristics of the new era. For African countries, Russia continues to be regarded as the key partner most likely to speak out and defend their interests on the international stage, and it naturally constitutes an effective counterweight to the hegemonic attempts of a single or a group of global powers. For Russia, therefore, this is an important moment to elevate Africa to the status of a strategic partner in order to deepen the synergy between the two sides in global affairs^[23].

Cooperation between the United Nations and multilateral institutions: Africa, with 54 States Members of the United Nations, is the world's largest regional political bloc. Through its multilateral diplomacy with African countries, Russia is defending the authoritative status and central role of the United Nations and is actively practising genuine multilateralism.

High-level exchange of visits and summit diplomacy: in recent years, political and economic cooperation between Russia and Africa has been deepening. According to TASS^[24]: in 2015-2017, President Putin visited Egypt twice, and Foreign Minister Lavrov made frequent trips to African countries. 2018 saw Putin's visit to South Africa, which gave further impetus to bilateral relations. 2019 saw the Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi, which saw the signing of 92 agreements and the establishment of a new mechanism, the “Russia-Africa Partnership Forum”. “ a new mechanism. Since then, Lavrov has continued to visit many African countries, and in 2023, Russia hosted a conference on “Russia-Africa in a multipolar world” in Moscow, which was addressed by Putin, and an African delegation visited St. Petersburg to discuss the Ukrainian crisis, demonstrating the positive trend of multifaceted cooperation between the two sides.

3. Military and security cooperation

Arms exports: Russia is one of the main suppliers of weapons and equipment to African countries. Many African countries rely on Russian military equipment to counter internal security threats and regional conflicts, especially in response to terrorism and insurgency. Through arms sales, Russia is not only able to reap economic benefits, but also increase its military influence in Africa. Countries such as Algeria, Egypt and Angola are important markets for Russian arms exports.

Security and Military Training: In addition to arms exports, Russia also provides military training and consultancy services to help African countries cultivate their military forces, promote their national security and stability, and lay the foundation for its future security cooperation in Africa.

Mercenaries and Private Military Companies: Russian private military companies have been involved in military operations in several conflict zones in Africa. These mercenaries have helped stabilise or fight in a number of African countries, increasing Russia's military influence there.

Currently, Russia has military-technical cooperation with 25 of 39 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Russia's Defence Export Corporation (Rosoboronexport) has permanent representative offices in Uganda, Ethiopia and Angola, and has signed government-to-government agreements on military-technical cooperation with most African countries. Russia's main partners include Angola, the Sudan, Uganda and Ethiopia^[25].

In December 2023, at the international defence industry exhibition EDEX-2023, Rosoboronexport announced a 30% increase in exports to Africa in 2023, exceeding $5.2 billion^[26].

Security cooperation and expansion of military influence: In addition to arms exports, Russia has expanded its military influence in Africa through security cooperation. Private military companies deployed by Russia in Africa have been involved in security affairs in several countries, helping some regimes to cope with civil unrest and stabilisation needs. In this way, Russia's military footprint in Africa is expanding, thus playing an important role in African security affairs^[27].

4. Humanitarian and educational cooperation

Debt relief and assistance programmes: Russia has won political and economic support from African countries through debt relief. For example, during the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit, Russia forgave $20 billion in debt to African countries. This initiative enhanced Russia's international reputation and consolidated its partnerships in Africa.

Educational and cultural cooperation: at the outset, it was noted that Russia's cultural and humanistic cooperation with Africa lacked clear priority directions and relevant strategic documents, which led to a relative lag in development in this area and a failure to keep pace with other areas^[28].

Subsequently, Russia has strengthened educational and cultural exchanges with African countries, offering scholarships, training programmes and language learning opportunities to attract African students to study in Russia. This use of soft power not only promotes mutual understanding between the peoples of the two countries, but also provides an important talent pool for the future expansion of Russian influence in Africa.

In 2019, at the first Russia-Africa Summit, the two sides reached an agreement on co-operation in the fields of education, technology and vocational training, with the aim of providing African youth, women and people with disabilities with more learning opportunities and promoting social stability. Due to population growth and increased demand for education in Africa, the prospects for Russian educational exports in Africa are favourable^[29].

According to experts at the second Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum^[30]: in the 2022/23 academic year, nearly 35 thousand African students are studying in Russia. This is four thousand more than in the last school year. The number of African students has tripled in the last 13 years. This reflects Russia's demand for African talent familiar with its culture, business and law. In addition to attracting African students to Russia, Russia could set up branches or partner universities in Africa to promote culture and knowledge. At the same time, Russian experts are encouraged to work in Africa to promote bilateral cooperation. These measures are aimed at deepening Russian-African relations by establishing long-term diplomatic and economic ties through education.

In 2019, Russia launched scientific and educational cooperation programs with Uganda and other East African countries.In 2021, the Russian-African Network University was established to promote academic exchanges and intercultural dialogue. At the same time, Russian scientific and cultural centers operated in eight African countries.In the 2022/2023 school year, a number of Russian schools introduced Kiswahili and Amharic courses.In March 2023, the Russian University of Peoples' Friendship resumed its name in honor of Lumumba, deepening historical ties with Africa^[31].

Impact and future prospects

The development of Russian-African relations has brought many benefits to African countries. First, on the economic front, Russian investment in Africa in the areas of energy, infrastructure and agriculture has helped African countries to enhance their economic autonomy and development capacity. Through these co-operation projects, African countries have gained access to much-needed resources and capital, which has promoted regional economic stability and growth. Second, the strengthening of Russian-African military cooperation, including arms exports and military training, has upgraded the defence capabilities of African countries and enhanced their ability to deal with terrorism and regional conflicts. In addition, Russia's debt relief and cooperation in cultural and educational exchanges have made a significant contribution to the development of human resources and the improvement of social welfare in African countries. These co-operations have helped African countries gain more autonomy and voice in the international arena and break away from their dependence on the West.

The deepening of Russian-African relations has provided Russia with strategic economic and political support. Against the backdrop of intensifying Western sanctions, Russia has expanded its international markets and eased the pressure of economic sanctions through co-operation with African countries, especially in energy and arms exports, where it has gained new market shares. By strengthening bilateral and multilateral cooperation with African countries, Russia has effectively expanded its global influence and enhanced its status as a global power.

The development of Russian-African relations has had a profound impact on the process of global multipolarity. As the West's economic and diplomatic blockade of Russia continues to intensify, Russia has turned to Africa in search of new international partnerships and has become an important factor in the redistribution of global power. Through its cooperation with African countries, Russia has weakened the West's traditional influence in Africa and contributed to the reorganisation of the global power landscape. Russian-African relations have not only promoted multilateralism in international affairs, but also South-South cooperation on a global scale, adding to the trend of decentralisation of global political power.

Looking ahead, Russian-African relations are expected to continue to deepen. Western sanctions against Russia are not expected to slow down in the near future, and Russia will further strengthen its cooperation with Africa. This cooperation will not be limited to the military and energy sectors, but will also extend to emerging areas such as finance and the digital economy. Russian scholars believe that cooperation between Russia and African countries is not only a reflection of the respective interests of the two sides, but also a practical need to address global challenges and promote global peace and development^[32].

However, the development of Russian-African relations faces a number of challenges. Russia's domestic economic pressures may limit its long-term investment of resources in Africa, while African countries may place new demands and expectations on Russia's co-operation in the face of other powers such as China and the United States. In addition, how Russia responds to the growing autonomy of African states and how it maintains its influence in Africa in the face of complex international competition will be an important test for Russia-Africa relations in the future.

Conclusion

Russia's foreign policy towards Africa has changed significantly over the past decade, a change largely driven by post-2014 US and European sanctions. In the face of economic isolation from the West, Russia has turned its strategic attention to Africa, actively seeking new economic and political partners. By strengthening cooperation with Africa in the fields of energy, minerals, agriculture, and the military, Russia has not only succeeded in reducing its dependence on the US and European markets, but has also elevated its position in global affairs through its partnership with Africa. This strategy is in line with the core logic of structural realism, in which states pursue their own security and power in an anarchic international system. In the face of Western sanctions pressure, Russia has sought to re-establish its comparative advantage in the global power structure by pursuing a balance of power through cooperation with African states.

Africa, as an emerging centre of power, is gradually becoming a strategic priority for global powers. By expanding its diplomatic and economic presence in Africa, Russia has effectively weakened the Western-dominated unipolar world order and helped shape a more pluralistic international power landscape. By establishing multi-level cooperative relations with African countries, it has worked with Africa to promote the principle of non-interference in international affairs and the concept of a multi-polar world, countering Western-led interventionism and hegemony.

According to the theory of power shift, the global power structure is not fixed, but dynamically changing. Against the backdrop of U.S.-European sanctions that have weakened Russia's traditional diplomatic power, Russia has sought to challenge the Western-dominated international order and promote the redistribution of power by strengthening its relations with Africa. As an emerging centre of power, Africa has become an important platform for Russia to reposition itself in the global system. By expanding political, economic, and military cooperation with Africa, Russia has taken on a more diverse role in global affairs, a move that has contributed to the multipolarity of world politics.

Looking ahead, Russia's foreign policy toward Africa will continue to deepen, not only out of economic interests but also as a strategic choice to geopolitically challenge the West's dominant power landscape. Under the long-term pressure of sanctions, Russia will increase its investment in and diplomatic support for the African market, further contributing to the process of multipolarisation in the world. Nonetheless, Russia's development prospects in Africa will still face competition from external sources, such as the influence of the US and Europe, as well as internal constraints on its economic strength. Overall, however, Russian-African relations are an important part of global multipolarity, continuing to promote the redistribution of global power and providing more opportunities for emerging market countries to cooperate and jointly advance the global multipolarity process.