Human potential in the system of indicators of the national wealth of the country in the context of the transformation of the socio-economic system

Chikhireva Natalia Viktorovna ORCID: 0000-0002-7415-1667 applicant; Department of Economic Theory; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 49/2 Leningradsky Ave., Moscow, 125167, Russia 4mrsrnv@gmail.com Other publications by this author

Alpidovskaya Marina Leonidovna ORCID: 0000-0001-9075-9683 Doctor of Economics Professor; Department of Economic Theory; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 49/2 Leningradsky Ave., Moscow, 125167, Russia morskaya67@bk.ru

Introduction

The transformation of the socio-economic system is a process associated with a long—term change in the dominant economic activity, leading to a transition from one economic structure to another. In the author's understanding, transformation implies a fundamental reform of economic and social systems at both the national and global levels. Transformation is a complex and multifaceted process involving various stakeholders and factors, requiring a deep understanding of the main driving forces and outcomes of the process. The processes of transformation of the socio-economic system have an impact on the perception, functions and role of human potential for the national economy. In the context of socio-economic transformation, human potential refers to the collective capabilities, skills and talents of people in society that can be used to stimulate economic growth, social progress and sustainable development. It encompasses people's innate abilities, knowledge, and experiences that can be developed and used to achieve their full potential.

Problem statement

In modern realities, human potential is an integral component of national wealth, and a highly developed component of human potential, taking the forms of highly skilled labor and human capital, is in demand in the processes of deep technological shifts and socio-economic transformations. However, there is a problem of stimulating the growth of the human potential of the state, especially the highly developed component, in conditions of transformation and imperfection of the institutional and socio-economic environment. The points of growth of human potential are subject to research in this work. The scientific novelty is the reflection of human potential as a phenomenon considered in the space-time continuum, which represents a fundamental opportunity for the accumulation of national wealth of the country in the conditions of transformation of the socio-economic system.

The purpose and objectives of the study

The purpose of the work is to substantiate the role of human potential in the system of indicators of national wealth of the country in the conditions of transformation of the socio-economic system.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks are considered in the article:

- disclosure of the category "transformation of the socio-economic system" and the identification of stages of transformation;

- analysis of the evolution of views on the components of the national wealth of the country;

- definition of the category of "human capital", "human potential", "labor resources" to distinguish concepts and form an idea of the importance of the role of human potential in the national wealth of the country;

- substantiation of the transformation of the socio-economic system and the need for human development in 2024-2030.

Methodology and research conditions

Using a comparative descriptive research method, the categories "human capital", "human potential", and "human resources" were analyzed. Through formalization, the place and role of human potential in the system of indicators of national wealth was determined.

The graphical representation of the information made it possible to demonstrate the peculiarities of the transformation of the socio-economic system in Industry 4.0.

The results of the study

The source of the development of scientific discourse is the consideration of the category "transformation of the socio-economic system". From the point of view of Steblyakova, transformation occurs through the transition of the functional state of the system as changes accumulate ^[1]. ZubenkoS has the opposite opinion, who considers transformation as a continuous process of progressive transformation (that is, the socio-economic system exists in changes), the reason for which is a change in the structural elements of all levels, their interrelationships and interpenetration ^[2]. Vasins. The transformation of the socio-economic system includes phenomena and events in the context of managerial or political decisions, or, conversely, the lack of necessary decisions, which can lead to deformations of the system ^[2]. Martynov. He believes that the process of economic transformation is carried out largely as a result of reflecting technological transformations, a number of non-economic and to a limited extent institutional processes ^[1]. From the author's point of view, socio-economic transformation refers to significant and fundamental changes in the economic and social structures of society. This transformation can occur at different levels, including national and global, and involves a shift from one dominant economic activity to another, which often leads to increased productivity and growth.

The transition to Industry 4.0 (Digital Economy) is an ongoing socio-economic transformation that is driven by advances in technology and leads to significant changes in the lifestyle of society and relationships. There is a need for a detailed consideration of the spheres of socio-economic life of society that are subject to transformation in order to determine the role of man and human potential in the accumulation of national wealth of the country. Let's consider the stages and aspects of the transformation of the socio-economic system in the era of Industry 4.0 in Figure 1.

Figure 1 - Stages and aspects of the transformation of the socio-economic system in the era of Industry 4.0

The transformation of the socio-economic system in the era of Industry 4.0 is a complex and multifaceted process that requires the participation of all stakeholders, including government, business and society. In the process of transformation, attitudes towards human labor and potential are changing, labor practices and needs for human labor are changing. In the context of the shortage of personnel observed in many countries of the world, the importance of human development becomes obvious. On the one hand, modern technologies are designed to make human life and work easier. However, in practice, there is a need for both highly qualified personnel and workers who ensure production not in a digital, but in a real environment. According to experts, by 2030, the shortage of personnel of various qualifications in the world will reach 85 million people ^[3]. It is paradoxical that with the growth of the world's population (it has exceeded 8 billion people), there is a parallel increase in the need for human labor (70% of companies in 40 countries of the world are experiencing a shortage of personnel), which is associated with an aging population ^[3].

The shortage of personnel and national wealth are closely linked, since national wealth includes human capital, that is, knowledge, skills and experience of employees. In general, the dependence of the shortage of personnel on national wealth can be described by the following formula:

Shortage of personnel = (Need for personnel - Available personnel) / Available personnel * 100% (1), where:

· The need for personnel is the number of qualified workers needed to maintain and develop the national wealth;

· Available personnel - the number of qualified workers actually available in the labor market.

National wealth affects the need for personnel, as a higher level of national wealth requires more qualified workers to maintain and develop the economy. In addition, national wealth also affects the available workforce, as richer countries can afford to invest more in the education and training of their citizens, which leads to an increase in the number of qualified workers in the labor market.

Thus, it can be said that national wealth is one of the factors influencing the shortage of personnel, but not the only one. Other factors, such as the structure of the economy, the level of development of education and science, migration processes, etc., also play an important role in determining the shortage of personnel.

The theories that make up national wealth represent a variety of approaches and concepts that explain what a country's wealth consists of and how it is formed. Modern scientific works do not contain a single definition of national wealth. The variety of approaches to determining the national wealth of a country is based on a variety of objects and methods for research, as well as on changes in the global socio-economic system. Let's consider several main key areas of classification of theories of national wealth (Table 1).

Table 1 – Classification of theories of national wealth ^[4]

These theories emphasize the versatility of the concept of national wealth and the importance of various factors and approaches for its understanding and analysis. Over time, the concept of national wealth has changed. National wealth in the context of the passage of time shows how views change about the accumulated wealth of a nation and the factors that determine it, depending on historical and economic conditions. This development can be considered in several key periods. Let's highlight six main periods:

1. Antiquity and the Middle Ages: characterized by the fact that the wealth of a nation was measured mainly by the amount of land and natural resources it owned. Land was the main source of wealth, and agriculture played a central role in the economy. The exchange of goods and trade, both international and domestic, was of great importance, especially in such civilizations as Ancient Rome and the medieval city-states of Italy;

2. Mercantilism (16th-18th century): in this time period, national wealth was viewed through the prism of accumulation of gold and silver. The trade balance was the main indicator of economic well-being: countries sought to exceed exports over imports. Government policy had a great impact on the economy and was aimed at increasing the accumulation of precious metals;

3. Classical economic theory (18th-19th century): The transition to the Industrial Revolution changed the focus on industrial production and labor. Adam Smith and other classical economists argued that labor is a source of wealth, and that free markets and competition promote economic growth. David Ricardo introduced the concept of comparative advantage, emphasizing the importance of specialization and international trade;

4. Industrial era (19th-20th century): characterized by rapid growth of industrial production and urbanization. Technological innovation and capital have become key elements of national wealth. Social and economic changes, such as the development of the banking system and financial markets, have also begun to play an important role;

5. The post-industrial era and modernity (late 20th, early 21st century): Modern concepts of national wealth include not only tangible assets, but also intangible ones, such as human capital, knowledge, technology and innovation. Institutional factors, including a developed legal system and political stability, are becoming increasingly important. Sustainable development and environmental aspects are becoming an integral part of national wealth. National wealth is assessed taking into account environmental sustainability and social justice;

6. The digital age (21st century): In the last decade, information technology and the digital economy have played a central role in shaping national wealth. Large amounts of data, information and knowledge are becoming strategic resources. Innovation and entrepreneurship in high-tech sectors such as IT, biotechnology and renewable energy are important drivers of economic growth ^[3].

The evolution of ideas about national wealth demonstrates how economic conditions, technologies and social values have changed, influencing the ways in which a nation's wealth is created and measured.

In modern conditions, the scientific community and practitioners come to conclusions about the importance of measuring the human potential of a country for determining national wealth. The complexity of measuring human potential is based on two components, namely:

1. assessment of the current state of the country's human capital – it is necessary to take into account a large number of parameters for measurement, among which there are qualitative indicators (health status, quality of accumulated knowledge, etc.);

2. making a forecast for future periods – when making a forecast, quantitative and qualitative indicators are also taken into account, as well as the possible probability of events. There is a need to make three types of forecast: negative, neutral and positive.

In this study, it is necessary to define the categories of "human capital", "human potential", "labor resources" in order to distinguish concepts and form an idea of the importance of the role of human potential in the national wealth of the country.

Human capital is a set of knowledge, skills, competencies and other qualities inherent in individuals and used to create personal, social and economic well—being. Figure 2 shows the components of human capital.

Figure 2 – Components of human capital

As can be seen from Figure 2, the components of human capital have qualitative characteristics. If we consider a situation in which, for example, education and training are measured by quantitative indicators: the number of people with higher education, the number of people who have graduated from a specialty and a master's degree with two degrees, then we can get a distorted picture of the level of development of the country's human capital. A large number of people with higher education may indicate its accessibility to a wide number of people, rather than the quality of both education and human capital. At the same time, by calculating the correlation between the level of education and the number of people who possess it and work experience, you can get a broader understanding of the state of human capital. Let's define the importance of human capital in the system of indicators of national wealth of the country.

Figure 3 – The importance of human capital and its role in the system of indicators of national wealth of the country

When resources are invested in human capital, there is an increase in both the individual well-being of society and the country as a whole, which manifests itself in an increase in labor productivity, GDP growth and ND. In this regard, it is necessary to make systemic investments in all aspects of human capital development (Figure 4).

Figure 4 – Investing in human capital

Human capital is a key resource for the sustainable development and prosperity of society, and its development requires an integrated approach and constant investment. At the same time, if we judge the national wealth of a country, taking into account such an indicator as human capital, it will become difficult to make a forecast and track the dynamics of changes in national wealth, as well as to form an idea of the correlation of national wealth and human capital in the perspective of changes in these indicators. For a broader view of national wealth from the perspective of temporary changes, it is necessary to define the category of "human potential".

Human potential is a set of opportunities, abilities and talents that a person can develop and use for personal, professional and social growth. This concept includes not only existing knowledge and skills, but also potential opportunities for their further development.

Figure 5 - The main components of human potential

The components of human potential constitute a category that is practically not quantifiable. However, human potential is directly related to the measurement of a country's national wealth, since it is precisely with the development of human potential that an increase in national wealth is associated. Human potential forms a stable positive dynamic and is important for the socio-economic well-being of the country (Figure 6).

Figure 6 – The importance of human potential in the system of indicators of national wealth of the country

The correlation between human potential and national wealth can be proved through the factors influencing the development of human potential, the same factors contribute to the growth of national wealth.

The first factor includes education and training: with the increase in the quality of education, human potential increases, society acquires competencies and knowledge that contribute to an increase in innovation, production and creative activity, which, as a result, leads to an increase in national wealth.

The second factor is the quality of health care: physical and mental health provide the basis for realizing the potential of society. To increase national wealth, indicators of low mortality and high fertility, life expectancy of the population are now becoming fundamental, because right now, in addition to quantitative, financial, and material, qualitative indicators are also included in the definition of national wealth.

The third factor is the quality of the social environment. The support of the family, society and professional environment contributes to the development of abilities and talents and, as a result, the growth of human potential. The social environment also has an impact on the growth of national wealth: a decrease in the crime rate, an increase in the motivation of society for work, accumulation, reasonable and conscious consumption give a positive dynamics of the growth of the nation's wealth.

The fourth group includes personal and motivational factors that are determined by upbringing and the level of education. Individual aspirations, self-confidence and intrinsic motivation have a significant impact on the development and use of human potential.

Thus, human potential is a fundamental resource both for individual success and for the social and economic prosperity of society. Human development requires an integrated approach and investments in education, healthcare, social support and the creation of favorable conditions for personal growth.

The categories of "human capital" and "human potential" have a close relationship with the category of "human resources", which in turn has practical significance at the micro-level, in the study of enterprises, markets, sectors of the economy, and also has clearer quantitative characteristics. Human resources are a set of physical and intellectual abilities of people that can be used in the production of goods and services. This is a part of the population that is able and willing to participate in labor activities, ensuring economic development and the well-being of society.

Table 2 – Main aspects of human resources

According to the state of the country's labor resources, it is possible to determine the prospects for the growth of human potential and national wealth of the country (table 2). They are a kind of foundation for the formation of human potential.

Figure 7 - The importance of labor resources in the system of indicators of national wealth of the country

Thus, it can be seen from Figure 7 that economic growth arises due to labor resources, it is labor resources that create the surplus value of goods and services, form the country's production capacity, and contribute to the development of innovations.

A number of factors influence the workforce (table 3).

Table 3 – Factors affecting the workforce

Human resources are an essential element of the economic system, and their effective use is the key to sustainable development and prosperity of society. Human resource management requires an integrated approach, including improving the education system, health care, working conditions and creating favorable economic and social conditions for the development of the workforce ^[7].

Table 4 – Problems and challenges of human resource management

Discussion of the research results

The need for labor resources in Russia in 2024 is determined by several key factors, including demographic changes, economic conditions, technological innovations and structural transformations in the economy. Let's look at the main aspects and trends:

1. Demographic changes: A decrease in the number of able-bodied people due to the aging of the population. This leads to a decrease in the number of workers in the economy and an increase in the burden on the social security system. According to experts, the average annual unemployment rate in Russia in 2022 was 4%, in 2023 — 3.8%, and in 2024 it is projected to be 3.7%. The supply of labor in a few years, according to analysts, will fall more significantly than the demand for labor.

Presumably, the number of economically active population in 2024 will decrease by 0.8-1.1% relative to 2021. This situation is due to the fact that the number of young people entering the labor market does not compensate for natural mortality and aging ^[2].

Migration flows play an important role in filling the labor shortage. The attraction of migrant workers from the CIS countries and other regions continues to be a significant factor. According to statistics, the number of migrants to Russia in 2024 amounted to 16.5 million people, compared to 14.5 million in 2019 ^[4]. In the context of the natural decline of the indigenous population, an increase in the share of migrants can compensate for the shortage of labor. However, at the same time, the indicator of the national wealth of the country will decrease, since the modernization of production and the growth of innovations will slow down due to the lack of opportunities to form competencies for employees of organizations (it is not profitable for immigrants who come for a short stay to provide training and count on their professional growth). The issues of personnel shortage at the expense of migrants will be resolved in the short term.

2. Economic conditions: Economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic requires the adaptation of labor resources to new conditions. Some sectors, such as healthcare and e-commerce, are experiencing an increase in demand for labor.

The energy and raw materials industries remain important for the Russian economy, requiring qualified specialists and workers.

3. Technological innovations: automation and digitalization of production lead to a change in the structure of demand for labor resources. The need for low-skilled labor is decreasing, while the demand for highly qualified specialists in the field of IT, engineering and data management is increasing.

The development of artificial intelligence and robotics creates new jobs that require special skills.

4. Structural transformations in the economy: sectors related to green energy and sustainable development are becoming increasingly important, requiring new qualifications and retraining.

The development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) contributes to job creation and requires flexibility in hiring and training approaches.

5. Education and training: The education system must adapt to changes in the labor market by offering retraining and advanced training programs. The importance of vocational education and cooperation between educational institutions and business is increasing (large Russian companies are already developing joint advanced training courses with universities, allocating employees among managers to train staff to work on equipment, representatives of the university provide a theoretical basis).

For an accurate forecast of the need for labor resources, you can refer to various sources, such as the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation, Rosstat and other analytical centers.

Table 5 – Forecast of labor needs in Russia for 2025-2030

The need for labor resources in Russia in 2024 will be determined by a set of factors, including demographic changes, technological innovations and structural shifts in the economy. Adapting the education and training system to new conditions will be a key element in meeting this need.

Concluded

Thus, labor resources are a category that includes only that part of human capital that is directly used in the labor process at the moment. Human potential is a broader concept that includes not only the current capabilities of a person in the field of work, but also his future capabilities. Human potential encompasses a set of skills, knowledge, abilities, talents and motivations that a person can use in their life and work. Human potential is the most important indicator of a country's national wealth, which makes it possible to comprehensively (through qualitative and quantitative criteria) form a forecast of economic development.

The article defines the fundamental role of human potential in the accumulation and increase of national wealth of the country, from the perspective of investments in human capital:

- through qualifications and education, vocational training, there is an increase in labor productivity in society. Skilled workers are able to create better goods and services, which increases value added and, as a result, leads to an increase in national wealth;

- a society with a high level of education and skills is inclined to develop innovative technologies - it can develop and optimize production processes, creating new benefits, which contributes to economic growth and wealth accumulation;

- human potential includes the ability to adapt to changes in the economic environment. A flexible and adaptive society reacts faster to the transformation of the socio-economic system, which contributes to the sustainable development of the economy.

Human potential is a fundamental factor for the accumulation of national wealth. Investments in education, health, innovation and social connections contribute not only to economic growth, but also to improving the quality of life of citizens, which in turn creates a stable foundation for the future development of the country.

Further research directions

In further research, the interests of society as a source of accumulation of national wealth will be revealed in more detail and human potential will be considered in the context of taking into account the interests of future generations.