Changing Russian Presidential Discourse on the example of Putin's inaugural speeches: results of quantitative content analysis

Voronin Vsevolod Alekseevich Student; Faculty of Political Science; St. Petersburg State University 198510, Russia, Saint Petersburg, Smolny str., 1/3 sevvy@inbox.ru

Voronov Aleksei Vital'evich Student; Faculty of Psychology; St. Petersburg State University 5/6 Belysheva str., Saint Petersburg, Russia, 193313 3563alex@gmail.com

Introduction

Over the past 30 years, the economic and political orientation of Russia's development has changed more than once. One of the indicators of changes in the direction of the country's policy is the power discourse, reflecting the ideological sentiments in society and the state. An important part of it is the speeches of the head of state, which make up the presidential discourse. The inaugural speech is one of the most significant addresses of the head of state to citizens and an important part of the general presidential rhetoric. In it, the head of the country speaks about the main tasks and goals facing the state, designates the value and ideological basis, along which the planned changes should take place ^[1]. Such speeches are widely covered both in traditional media and on the Internet, which has become an important channel of political discourse ^[2]. Thus, the inaugural address is a political, social and economic concept for the further development of the country ^[3]. This study examines all of Vladimir Putin's inaugural speeches.

The object of the study is V. Putin's inaugural speeches, and the subject is their value-practical content. Stylistic and speech techniques are not considered in the President's addresses. The research is aimed at identifying the main narratives appearing in speech or specific semantic units denoting these narratives. Content analysis was chosen as the main research method, which allows us to determine the main topics ^[4] touched upon by the speaker (author) by counting semantic units. Unlike critical discourse analysis, which is more politicized ^[5], content analysis helps to build an unbiased picture of reality. The current procedure was aimed at highlighting the main explicit and hidden semantic elements related to the development of the country (ways, methods, conditions, etc.) appearing in the texts of speeches under consideration. The sample includes all the inaugural speeches of the current Russian president – 2000 ^[6], 2004 ^[7], 2012 ^[8], 2018 ^[9] and 2024 ^[10]. A comparative method and graphical modeling were used to identify specific changes in the President's discourse. The analysis was carried out taking into account the historical factor, because at different stages of its development in the XXI century, Russia faced different challenges. In addition, the political and socio-economic conditions in which the country was located were also changing, which could not but affect the speeches of the head of state.

The following hypothesis was put forward: The semantic accents in the president's inaugural speeches changed from liberal-democratic to conservative-authoritative ones.

The hypothesis is based on the following assumptions:

• The proportion of narratives characteristic of collectivist and historical discourse has increased in later speeches
• The proportion of narratives characteristic of liberal and democratic discourse has decreased in later speeches
• The share of narratives denoting foreign policy issues has increased in later speeches
• The share of hidden meanings emphasizing the need for unity in a difficult situation increased in later speeches

During the content analysis of the speeches, 4 main groups of key concepts (categories) were identified:

· "The name of Russia" (what words did Vladimir Putin use when referring to the country);

· "Name of the population" (which ones were used when referring to the population);

· "Values";

· "Goals and development".

The first two categories, presumably, carry a hidden meaningful meaning and are auxiliary. In the case of the name of the country, such names as "Fatherland", "Fatherland", "Homeland", etc. carry an emotional expression of attitude towards the country and are used in speeches and texts most often during serious political challenges. The words "Russia", "country", "state", etc. were classified as neutral names, since their use does not carry the same emotional connotation. Semantic units containing references to the population were divided according to the form of designation – collective or non-collective. If non-collective forms ("citizens", "people", etc.) are, as in the case of the first category, rather neutral, then words such as "people" and "nation" are intended to demonstrate the unity of all citizens, to present them as something whole. The categories of "Values" and "Goals and development" have included more explicit words and expressions. In addition to categories, there were also subcategories that combined groups of similar statements, phrases and individual words. To determine the importance of subcategories, their share in relation to the entire category was calculated.

The main part

Speeches of 2000 and 2004

Putin's inaugural speeches in 2000 and 2004 are a reflection of the difficult socio-economic and political situation in the state. Poverty and terrorism remain the main unresolved problems of Russia at the turn of the century. In addition, the country faces the task of building a just and democratic state ^[11]. The first two speeches of the president under consideration are filled with meanings related to this situation. The president often talks about a better life. But if in the first speech the president's expression is more abstract ("I am convinced that you voted ... for a better life"), then in the second speech the president speaks more specifically and focuses on improving the standard of living: "a better quality of life for our people", "growth of their well-being", etc. In addition, in the second In his speech, Vladimir Putin pays great attention to economic growth and the development of the social sphere – both past successes and plans for the future: "he created the foundations for the growth of economic potential", "So that people in Russia could receive good education, decent social and medical care", etc. The emphasis on socio-economic development is the main difference of the second speeches from the first. The main similarity of the speeches lies in the presence of motives for stability and security related to both terrorist threats and other domestic political "shocks". At the same time, as in the case of the standard of living, in the 2004 speech the president's expressions are more specific: "fought for territorial integrity", "stopped the aggression of international terrorism", "Saved the country from the real threat of disintegration". The 2000 speech contains general phrases: "the most important element of political stability", "the government elected by the people ... protected the Russian citizen." Also, in the first speech, to a greater extent than in the second, the theme of the country's strength appears. Both speeches develop the theme of Russia's position in the international arena and international cooperation with other states. The subcategory "general concepts" includes the most abstract phrases of the president related to achieving success, prosperity, etc. Moreover, the proportion of such expressions in the first speech is much higher than in the second: "we will be able to change our lives for the better," "for a prosperous ... Russia," etc.

The value content of Putin's first two inaugural speeches is collective. On the one hand, Russia is building democracy and developing in a liberal direction: "supreme power in the country is transferred in the most democratic, simplest way, according to the will of the people", "The path to a free society", "Building a democratic state", "made our Homeland an open country", "real multiparty system developed, personal freedoms were strengthened citizens." However, at the same time, the president's speeches are filled with collectivist motives and the theme of unity: "for our common goals", "to unite the people of Russia", "We overcame a difficult ideological confrontation", "fought ... for the unity of the country". The ratio of the two main value messages in the first speech is slightly more in favor of collectivism, and in the second their shares in the category of "values" turned out to be the same. The President also emphasizes the prestigious position of the state: "... who created the Russian state, defended its dignity, made it great," "This greatness must be reinforced," etc. The head of state connects this greatness with the history of the country: "Here, within the walls of the Kremlin, the history of our country has been accomplished for centuries," etc. In the first speech, the historical narrative in the category of "values" made up a quarter of the total number of semantic units, in the second – a tenth. Another difference in the second speech is the attention paid by V. Putin to the need for the development of civil society. Several percent of both speeches were occupied by phrases emphasizing legal ("checking the constitutional system") and moral values ("I will work openly and honestly"), which concerned not only citizens, but also became part of the president's self-presentation. Both speeches contain a meaning highlighting the value of peace and peaceful life: "Peaceful succession of power", "could be proud of the authority ... of a peace-loving country", etc.

Speech of 2012

V. Putin's inaugural address in 2012 is the most "vague" in terms of content in ideological terms. At the same time, plans for the further development of the socio-economic sphere and the development of democracy were combined at that moment with the need to maintain stability ^[12]. On the one hand, the president continues to reflect in line with liberal democratic values ("strengthen Russian democracy, constitutional rights and freedoms, expand citizen participation in the government of the country," etc.), but also emphasizes the importance of national unity and the collectivist basis of Russian society ("We will achieve our goals if we are a united, united people" etc.). To a slightly lesser extent, his speech contains expressions and words from other subcategories highlighted in the analysis of the first two speeches, but the number of semantic units concerning morality and morality has increased markedly: "if each of us lives according to conscience, with faith and love for the Motherland," etc. In the first of his inaugural In his speeches, Vladimir Putin speaks about the importance of traditions: "We will rely on the solid foundation of the cultural and spiritual traditions of our multinational people." However, in his third inaugural speech there are no sentences and just individual phrases dedicated to peaceful life. This can be explained by the fact that in 2012 Russia no longer faced the problem of war.

V. Putin's view on the further development of the country is similar to the first two speeches – the president continues to talk about the country's position in the world ("to become leaders and the center of gravity of the whole of Eurasia"), its strength ("they believed in themselves, in their strength, strengthened the country") and security ("Its interests, security"), focuses on improving the standard of living of the population ("... real success in creating ... modern standards of living"). But the shares of these subcategories turned out to be smaller due to the large number of common phrases about development, as in the first speech: "We will definitely succeed," "everyone's desire for a better life was embodied in working together for the prosperity of the whole country," etc.

Speech of 2018

This inaugural speech stands out, in comparison with previous ones, primarily because the liberal democratic message is becoming a third-rate one. Collectivist rhetoric retains its significance in the new text: "invincible unity", "hard work that will require the participation of the entire Russian society", "It is in harmonious unity", etc. Much attention is paid to the history of the country in the speech: "you can not break away from your own roots, from your history," "respect and continue the history of our Fatherland," "our older generations carried through their entire lives," etc. The rest of the value message is quite similar to the previous speech of the president under consideration. At the same time, it should be noted that the President's speech returns semantic units dedicated to the importance of peaceful life: "with all states in the interests of peace", "for its present and future – peaceful ..." Putin also mentions negative phenomena that arise or may arise in society: "But history does not forgive only one thing – indifference and inconsistency, relaxation and complacency," "rejects injustice, inertia, dense protection and bureaucratic deadness."

The rhetoric of the head of state, dedicated to the successes achieved and future development, is more specific in comparison with the speech of 2012. The share of general concepts and phrases about success and prosperity is almost halved, but a new subcategory appears, which includes phrases emphasizing the need for continuous progressive changes: "Russia must be modern and dynamic," "perceives everything new and everything advanced," "improving competitiveness in those areas that determine the future," etc. D. At the same time, many elements of the narratives that appeared in previous speeches are preserved. There is a noticeable increase in semantic units related to international cooperation, because even the moral support of states for each other becomes an important element of governance ^[13], especially during a period of obvious geopolitical demarcation.

Speech of 2024

On the one hand, this performance is noticeably different from the others. The main factor that determined the changes in V. Putin's rhetoric was most likely the armed conflict with Ukraine and the difficult situation in relations with the Western community. On the other hand, the president continued to carry out the rhetoric that could be traced in the speech of 2018. The share of semantic units characteristic of the liberal democratic narrative dropped to the lowest value in the entire category of "values". On the contrary, the importance of collectivist meanings has grown significantly. The topic of unity and cohesion is raised even more often: "The consolidated will of millions of people," "a deep understanding of our common historical goals," "the results of this work depend crucially on our unity and cohesion," etc. As in his previous speech, the head of state talks about the history, greatness of the country, self-realization of citizens, traditions, legal and moral norms. The anti-values highlighted by the president are those principles that Russia and Russian society are not guided by or should not and would not like to be guided by: "But not from a position of strength, without any arrogance, swagger and one's own exclusivity."

In the president's rhetoric concerning the goals and development of the country, the main meanings, in addition to general concepts and appeals, were words about problems on the world stage, in particular, criticism of Western countries ("do they intend to continue trying to restrain the development of Russia, continue the policy of aggression, incessant pressure on our country for years, or look for a way to cooperation and peace", "we will continue to work on the formation of a multipolar world order", etc.); as well as the topics of national defense ("striving to benefit the Fatherland, protect it"), security ("conversation, including on security issues, strategic stability, is possible") and the need for renewal ("create conditions to upgrade and move forward"). And much less attention is paid to improving the quality of life and socio-economic rhetoric.

A notable difference from the 2018 speech here is how the president represents the international arena for Russians. If in 2018 all countries are "partners" to one degree or another, then in 6 years there is a clear dichotomy between countries that are building a multipolar world and those that oppose and restrain the development of Russia. Such a division of "we-they" is currently an important element of identity politics ^[14], which is defined by many peoples, states and even unions.

It is also necessary to mention two categories that have not been considered in the analysis before – "the name of Russia" and "names of the population". Stylistically neutral names prevailed in the first category each time, but their share decreased almost every time, and in 2023 remained at about the same level as in 2018. In the case of the names of the population addressed by the president, the same trend is not observed – each time the share of one or the other category increases in comparison with the last speech. However, in 4 out of 5 speeches, non-collective designations prevail.

A summary table of the results of quantitative content analysis is presented below (Table 1). The calculation of the share of the subcategory is calculated as a% of the total number of semantic units in the category.

Table 1 Summary table of content analysis of V. Putin's inaugural speeches

Conclusions

Consideration of V. Putin's inaugural speeches makes it possible to analyze and evaluate changes in their content. On the one hand, there are those semantic units that invariably appeared in the speeches of the president and occupied a large share within their semantic categories. But there were also those whose share was declining or showed unstable dynamics. There were also those meanings that did not immediately appear in the president's speeches. They could be a reflection of the changes in Russian politics and discourse that took place already in the 2010s and 2020s.

In the category of "values", the three main subcategories that are most common and illustrate the most obvious dynamics can be called liberal democratic, conservative and historical narratives (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Change in the share of liberal democratic, collectivist and historical narratives in the total number of semantic units of the "values" category (in %)

The share of liberal democratic meanings gradually decreased, which cannot be attributed to the fact that democratization in Russia slowed down significantly and already in the second term of V. Putin's presidency, more authoritarian tendencies began to manifest themselves in the political system ^[15]. However, for some time these meanings still remained in the Russian power discourse. The proportion of collectivist semantic units has always remained at a high level. The most controversial trend is in the subcategory "History". The appeal to the past is actively used in the difficult and unstable year 2000, but as the situation improves, the share of this narrative decreases. And in 2018, references to the past are gaining weight again.

Figure 2. Change in the share of narratives devoted to socio-economic development, foreign policy, stability and security in the total number of semantic units of the "goals and development" category (in %)

In the category "goals and development", 3 main subcategories can also be distinguished – socio-economic development, stability and security, as well as the international situation and foreign policy. The topic of socio-economic development becomes most important in 2004 and 2012, when this development has the highest rates (in the first case, it is a way out of poverty in the 1990s, in the second - a rapid recovery after the crisis of 2008-2009). Stability and security, which the population needed in the 2000s, in the relatively calm and peaceful 2010s, it fades into the background, but during the period of hostilities, the share of this subcategory grows again. The share of mentions of foreign policy issues also increases sharply during the period of the CBA. In 2024, "foreign policy" included two similar subcategories at once, the dichotomy of which was rather procedural in nature – "The situation in the international arena and foreign policy" and "Equality in international relations".

Thus, the increase in the share of such subcategories as "collectivism", "history", as well as "stability and security", etc. suggests that the president's discourse, viewed through the prism of his inaugural speeches, was becoming more conservative. It is the conservative ideology, first of all, based on the principles of order, patriotism (and other forms of national unity), as well as appeals to the past and historical and cultural continuity ^[16]. In addition, due to the deterioration of relations with the West, the president's attention to foreign policy issues has increased.

Speaking about the first two auxiliary categories, it is worth noting that, despite the initial assumption that, thanks to collective nouns denoting the country's population, the president seeks to rally the people, it turned out to be insufficiently substantiated. And the dynamics showing a gradual increase in the share of emotionally colored names of the country, although it demonstrated a steady trend, still does not explain why, for example, in difficult 2000, the president called Russia more formally than in prosperous 2012.

Turning to the beginning of the work, the following conclusion can be drawn: the hypothesis put forward was fully confirmed, despite the fact that the last assumption was only partially confirmed, since all the others turned out to be correct. The semantic accents in the president's inaugural speeches underwent serious changes, and the changes in the placement of accents can be represented as a movement from the more liberal rhetoric of President V. Putin over time to a more conservative one.