Analysis of the mutability of the legal framework for migration policy in Russia (1990-2023) in the context of the effectiveness of migration governance

Popova Svetlana Mikhailovna ORCID: 0000-0002-1348-4492 PhD in Politics Leading Research Associate, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences 119333, Russia, Moscow, Fotieva str., 6, office 1 sv-2002-1@yandex.ru Other publications by this author     Yanik Andrey Aleksandrovich ORCID: 0000-0002-1599-6280 PhD in Technical Science Leading Research Associate, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences 119333, Russia, Moscow, Fotieva str., 6, office 1 aa.yanick@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

Karpova Svetlana Fyodorovna ORCID: 0009-0004-6771-4793 Researcher, Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences 119333, Russia, Moscow, Fotieva str., 6, office 1 karpova2@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

Introduction

Migration is one of the significant characteristics of the modern world. Managing migration processes to achieve the goals of socio-economic development in rapidly changing external and internal conditions is a difficult task that all modern states are solving. For the Russian Federation, improving the efficiency of migration management is especially relevant due to the dual role of the migration resource: on the one hand, attracting foreign workers contributes to economic development in the context of the demographic crisis and shortage of labor resources (see Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 10/31/2018 No. 622 "On the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019 - 2025") On the other hand, the growing number of migrants is a source of risks to socio-political stability.

In addition to using the migration resource in the national interest, the Russian Federation, as a Member of the United Nations, participates in the implementation of the global Goals and objectives in the field of sustainable development approved by the UN General Assembly Resolution No. A/RES/70/1 of October 21, 2015.

As you know, the task 10.7 formulated in this document establishes the need for UN Member States to: "Promote orderly, safe, lawful and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of a planned and well-thought-out migration policy" (see UN General Assembly Resolution No. A/RES/70/ dated 10/21/20151 "Transforming our world: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development", p. 26). The Government of the Russian Federation monitors and publishes voluntary reviews on the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development ^[1].

Migration policy by its nature is complex, multilevel and multidimensional (for more information about multilevel policy, for example, see Borisova N.V. ^[2], examples of practical use of multilevel policy methods – ^{[3, 4]}). The phenomenon of the ever-increasing (including due to total digitalization) connectivity of the world (Eng. connectivity), or "digital globalization" ^{[5, 6]} leads to the fact that, on the one hand, even the most insignificant changes in one area can have serious unpredictable consequences in others (the so-called "wings effect butterflies"), and, on the other hand, complicates the identification of the actual results of control actions.

It is obvious that changes in the migration regime arise as a result of the influence of various factors, including unforeseen challenges (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), and innovations in migration regulation affect the results in the economy and social development. In order to manage migration flows effectively, reliable scientific data are needed to identify cause-and-effect relationships between regulatory changes and socio-economic effects, as well as reliable theoretical and methodological tools that help assess and develop the capabilities of modern public management in a rapidly changing world.

Since public administration in the Russian Federation is carried out on a legal basis, the subject of analysis is normative legal acts that create the necessary basis for the development, improvement and implementation of measures in the field of migration policy.

The article presents the interim results of monitoring the processes of transformation of key regulatory legal acts regulating migration processes over a period of more than 30 years (1990-2023). The results obtained allowed us to formulate a number of hypotheses and problems that need further research, since understanding the consequences of the impact of frequent changes in migration regulation on various spheres of society and solving problems of socio-economic development requires the cooperation of specialists in various fields (lawyers, political scientists, economists, sociologists, demographers).

The results of the author's analysis of documents in the field of migration policy of the Russian Federation for 1990-2023 indicate that the domestic migration management system is able to quickly respond to a variety of challenges, producing various institutional and legal changes ^[7]. Formally, this indicates an increase in the adaptive capabilities of migration policy.

However, it seems that the increasing ability of migration policy and migration law to rapidly change raises the question of balancing the pros and cons of this phenomenon. At the moment, there is no scientifically sound answer as to where the boundary is that separates adaptability from instability and inconsistency.

The need for close attention to the issues of variability of legislation, which forms the basis of a particular state policy, is associated not only with the demands of management practice itself in a rapidly changing world, but also with the analysis of political risks, since the stability of legal regulation is one of the mechanisms that ensure the maintenance of citizens' trust in the law and the actions of the state, without which it is impossible creative development and the very existence of our country. This principle was first formulated by the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation in its Decision No. 8-P of May 24, 2001. The Constitutional Court pointed out that the principle of maintaining citizens' trust in the law and the actions of the state "presupposes the preservation of reasonable stability of legal regulation and the inadmissibility of making arbitrary changes to the current system of norms, as well as providing citizens, if necessary, with the opportunity, in particular through the establishment of temporary regulation, during a reasonable transitional period to adapt to the changes" (cit. according to: Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation. 2001. No. 22. St. 2276).

This article continues a series of works, the general task of which is to analyze the possibilities and problems of public administration of complex socio-economic processes (in this case, migration resources) in a changing environment under conditions of uncertainty. Discussion of the results of the conducted research and hypotheses seem appropriate to draw the attention of colleagues to the relevance of the discussion on the current and long-term consequences of the high variability of Russian migration policy in the context of achieving national development goals, as well as to the search for mechanisms capable of ensuring the proper balance of adaptability (variability) and stability of legal regulation of various spheres of public relations.

1. Materials and methods

The research base is an array of various sources (mainly from the period 1990-2023), including normative legal acts of the Russian Federation (federal laws, decrees and orders of the President of the Russian Federation, resolutions and orders of the Government of the Russian Federation, decisions of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation), acts of the subjects of the Russian Federation, political documents of the leadership of the Russian Federation relevant to the subject of the study scientific publications and documents of the so-called "gray literature", official statistics and various Internet resources. In addition to Russian sources, documents from international organizations (the United Nations, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, etc.), comparative materials from other countries, in particular the People's Republic of China, were also used.

The methods of legal statistics made it possible to assess the intensity of the variability of migration legislation.

To identify the factors influencing the variability of acts, a parallel analysis of changes in the field of legal regulation of migration processes, political approaches to the role and significance of migration in the context of the demographic crisis and shortage of labor resources, as well as the demands of regional labor markets was used.

2. Results

2.1. A statistical analysis of information on regulatory legal acts in the field of migration policy was carried out using the database of legal information "ConsultantPlus" (https://www.consultant.ru ) and databases of the State Legal Information System of Russia "Official Internet Portal of Legal Information" (http://pravo.gov.ru ).

In particular, the statistics of changes in federal laws establishing (1) the legal status of foreign citizens in the Russian Federation, (2) the procedure for leaving the Russian Federation and entering the Russian Federation, as well as (3) the federal law on migration registration of foreign citizens and stateless persons were studied. The results are shown in Tables 1-3.

Table 1 - Statistics on amendments and additions to Federal Law No. 115-FZ of July 25, 2002
"On the legal status of foreign citizens in the Russian Federation"

Table 2 - Statistics on amendments and additions to Federal Law No. 114-FZ of August 15, 1996
"On the procedure for leaving the Russian Federation and entering the Russian Federation"

Table 3 - Statistics on amendments and additions to Federal Law No. 109-FZ of July 18, 2006
"On migration registration of foreign citizens and stateless persons"

According to calculations of the average number of changes over the entire period of the act's existence, federal laws No. 115-FZ dated July 25, 2002 "On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation" (on average 6 times a year) and No. 114-FZ dated August 15, 1996 "On the Procedure for Leaving the Russian Federation" were most often transformed and entry into the Russian Federation" (on average 5 times a year). Federal Law No. 109-FZ of July 18, 2006 "On Migration Registration of Foreign Citizens and Stateless Persons" was amended on average 2 times a year.

2.2. As part of the study, the ratio of primary and secondary (modifying) acts of the Government of the Russian Federation for 2023 on issues related to the legal regulation of the situation of foreign citizens and stateless persons was also analyzed.

According to the results of the issuance of the legal information base "ConsultantPlus" at the request of "acts of the Government of the Russian Federation" adopted "later than December 31, 2022", on the subject of "Foreign citizens, stateless persons", 11 resolutions and orders of the Government of the Russian Federation were adopted in 2023, of which 9 were related to amendments to the current ones acts suspending the validity of acts or declaring them invalid, and only two have new content: Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated September 16, 2023 No. 1511 "On Establishing for 2024 the permissible share of foreign workers employed by Business Entities Engaged in certain Types of economic activities on the Territory of the Russian Federation" and Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 11 October 2023 No. 2798-r "On the establishment of a quota for the issuance of temporary residence permits to foreign citizens and stateless persons in the Russian Federation for 2024".

2.3. No continuous statistical analysis of acts of the authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on migration policy has been carried out, however, monitoring of events suggests that the degree of variability of regional legislation is also high, and the pace of change may be extremely high.

Perhaps one of the most striking examples is the experience of the Moscow City Hall during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although formally it was not specifically about migration legislation, nevertheless, the task of managing the movement (migration) of human flows, including between different subjects of the Russian Federation, was solved. So, on April 15, 2020, a pass regime was introduced in Moscow for trips around Moscow and the Moscow region by private and public transport based on an individual alphanumeric code that citizens could receive on the digital resources of the Mayor's Office of the capital. Only during the day on April 12-14, 2020, 3.2 million citizens received passes, about 1 million were refused ^[8]. On June 9, 2020, this decision was reversed. At the same time, the decision to introduce a "controlled walking regime" in Moscow was canceled, which was in effect for a little more than a week ^[9].

Regulation of the activities of migrant workers in regional labor markets is subject to constant changes. Thus, in 2024, the number of subjects of the Russian Federation and types of economic activities for which the permissible share of foreign workers has been established has increased once again, as well as new regional bans on the employment of migrants have been introduced. For example, in 2024, it is completely prohibited to hire foreigners to grow vegetables in the Udmurt Republic (in other subjects of the Russian Federation – up to 50%); in the Magadan region, it is impossible to attract more than 50% of foreign workers in agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing; an absolute ban on hiring foreigners for sports activities is established in Kaluga Region and Krasnodar Territory (as a general rule, up to 24% is possible) (see Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 09/16/2023 No. 1511 "On establishing for 2024 the permissible share of foreign workers employed by business entities engaged in certain types of economic activities on the territory of the Russian Federation" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2023. No. 40. 7218).

3. Discussion

3.1. As the monitoring of regulatory legal acts and political and legal developments in recent years shows, the regulation of migration in the Russian Federation is not stable. On the one hand, this is an objective process, because migration policy must be consistent with the changing situation. On the other hand, the constant variability of the rules reduces migrants' confidence in the policies of the host country and at the same time makes the effects on the economy and social sphere unpredictable.

The migration policy of the Russian Federation is dynamically transforming, fluctuating in the "corridor of solutions", the boundaries of which are determined by the equivalent priorities of ensuring the security and economic development of the country ^[8]. In addition to the main governing factors (strategic priorities), changes in migration regulation are influenced by strong, sometimes unforeseen, current challenges of the external environment, to which the state must objectively respond. The most typical examples of such current challenges are the events of the COVID-19 pandemic; geopolitical events affecting the geography, intensity and other characteristics of migration flows; the digital transformation of the economy and all spheres of life; the disappearance of former and the emergence of new professions in the labor market.

The response to these challenges is reflected in acts of various levels – not only in documents of regulatory executive bodies, but also in federal laws. Since the analysis of the dynamics of changes in key regulatory legal acts in the field of migration policy showed that in some years there was a significant excess of the average number of changes, the question arises as to what factors caused this. A parallel study of legal, institutional and political developments has shown that increasing the intensity of the variability of the legislative framework is influenced by political factors, which, in turn, reflect the demands of the public and the needs of economic development (see Table 4). However, in order to trace the feedback from the regulatory impact, special multidisciplinary studies are needed aimed at identifying the "response" of the socio-economic environment and evaluating the results obtained in the context of the goals and objectives set.

Table 4 - Factors that influenced the high intensity of changes in regulatory legal acts in the field of migration policy

Note: For information about the acts and decisions mentioned in the table that initiated various events (numbers from "a" to "n"), see Appendix 1.

Several questions arise: is the marked variability of migration regulation a sign of the use of adaptive management methods? Do high adaptive indicators of migration regulation lead to instability of legislation and related risks?

As follows from the analysis of the scientific literature, it is necessary to distinguish adaptive and flexible approaches in management, since their principles differ.

For example, M. Janssen and H. der Wurth believe that the differences between flexible and adaptive management are that flexibility refers mainly to the speed of response within (institutional – Ed.) structures, and adaptability implies changes at the systemic level throughout the government ^[11].

The concept of agile management came to organizational research from software development management ^[12]. We are talking about practices that allow you to quickly create and market a working product, the shortcomings of which are eliminated in the process of using it, thanks to effective feedback systems ^[13-14]. Agile is considered to be a promising approach in public administration, although its implementation is difficult due to the discrepancy between flexible practices and traditional methods of project financing and management ^[15].

As for "adaptive governance", this concept arose as a result of understanding different approaches to solving complex problems affecting the interests of many participants with divergent views, in a situation where there is initially no idea what exactly needs to be done. An example of this type of problem was the search for options for relocating communities due to climate change or attempts to involve local residents in the disaster management system ^[16-18]. Modern approaches to adaptive management, which outwardly may look like the use of a well-known trial and error method, actually have a deep theoretical foundation, originating in evolutionary theory and "based on the ideas of political economy, economics of resources and the environment, experimental economics, evolutionary game theory, theory of organizations, ecology, theory of systems and the science of complex systems" ^[19]. A special interest in adaptive management as a general management approach in conditions of uncertainty has begun to develop in recent years, when states have faced such unexpected powerful challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Summarizing the approaches of various researchers, we can say that adaptive management is a structured iterative decision–making process based on systematic monitoring of changes in the external environment, the object of management and the effects caused by managerial influences ^[20]. In practice, the success of adaptive management depends on the presence of developed institutional structures, the ability to use the principles of participatory democracy, inclusivity, cooperation skills ^[21], as well as the presence of an atmosphere of trust and readiness for change and learning.

In Russia, the concept of adaptive management has not yet become part of a broad scientific discourse. Adaptive management is more often discussed in the context of improving project management ^[22]. Accordingly, in Russian regulatory practice, there is no clear understanding of the difference between flexible and adaptive management approaches. The author's earlier analysis of Russian lawmaking statistics from 1993-2019 showed that Agile methods are widely used in practice to accelerate the adaptation of the legal system to changing environmental challenges, when legislators adopt an important but "raw" act, after which an iterative process of improving the law takes place based on the analysis of data on law enforcement excesses and comments from interested participants. The need to improve existing regulatory legal acts leads to the adoption of a large number of amendments that complicate the management process and negatively affect citizens' trust in the state, one of the foundations of which is the expectation of stability and predictability of legal regulation.

In the framework of previous studies, the authors drew attention to the phenomenon of a sharp increase in the share of laws on amendments and additions to current legislation in comparison with acts of primary regulation. At the same time, an increase in the speed of adoption of new laws was noted, which could be explained precisely by the fact that legislators need less time to discuss conceptual and substantive issues when they work with draft laws on amendments than in situations related to the consideration of major primary acts ^[23].

The increase in the number and speed of adoption of "laws on changes" leads to the fact that legislation becomes unstable and confusing. This applies, among other things, to acts of migration policy.

Among the risks of great variability of legal regulation through the adoption of various kinds of amendments and changes is the loss or even a change in the principles of the original document. Putting short, narrowly focused amendment laws up for discussion is an effective way to facilitate and speed up their adoption, but ultimately this practice leads to an increase in the total number of federal acts of this type.

A number of researchers formulate a hypothesis according to which amending several laws at once, different in content, may be a way of hiding true intentions, since it makes it difficult to realize that these changes are aimed at changing the basic ideas underlying the primary laws. For example, there are works showing how amendments to the federal law on licensing arms trafficking have changed the original meaning of the concept of small and medium-sized businesses ^[24].

In order to reduce these risks, increase transparency and stability of the legislative framework, some authors propose to develop mechanisms to ensure the "self-liquidation" of laws on amendments and additions to existing acts, since in fact they are an auxiliary tool designed for a single application, and after completing their mission they turn into an "empty shell" ^[25].

3.2. A formal legal analysis of the array of sources in the field of migration regulation for the period 1990-2023 and consideration of the current state of the institutional subsystem of state management of the migration sphere showed the existence of a number of problems, the solution of which will improve the efficiency of migration management.

In particular, we are talking about the absence of:

- legal definition of migration policy;

- migration policy strategies;

- legal differentiation of the spheres of competence of different levels of public authority in the field of migration ("vertically");

- a mechanism for coordinating the goals, objectives and actions of the "law enforcement" and "economic" blocks in migration management (differentiation and coordination "horizontally";

- systems for the comprehensive assessment of the effects arising from the adaptive transformation of migration management tools.

One of the long-standing and still unresolved problems of migration policy is the competition of tasks and the inconsistency of actions of state bodies involved in its formation and implementation, both "vertically" (federal, regional, local public authorities) and "horizontally" (economic and power bloc of federal executive authorities) Special attention should be paid to mechanisms that ensure unity of approaches and coordination of efforts of all stakeholders.

One of the reasons is the absence in federal legislation (including the Constitution of the Russian Federation) of provisions clearly delineating the rights and obligations of various levels of public authority in the management of migration processes. Since relations in the field of migration significantly affect the interests of the regional as well as local levels of government, the regulation of various aspects of migration processes can and should become the subject of joint jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and its subjects, with the exception of issues of national importance that are within the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation (in particular, the regulation and protection of human and civil rights and freedoms; citizenship of the Russian Federation; defense and security; ensuring the security of the individual, society and the state in the application of information technology, digital data turnover, etc.).

To solve this problem, amendments to the norms of the Constitution of the Russian Federation are not required, it is enough to use the opportunities provided by the Federal Law "On General Principles of the Organization of Public Power in the Subjects of the Russian Federation" dated December 21, 2021 No. 414-FZ (ed. 05/15/2024)..First of all, we are talking about article 51 of the Agreement between federal executive authorities and executive authorities of the subjects of the Russian Federation on the transfer of part of their powers by them to each other, which provides the basis for a clearer definition of the areas of responsibility and powers of federal and regional government authorities on the regulation of migration in general and labor migration in particular.

Conclusions

Migration policy solves a complex set of tasks, while ensuring the interests of the economic development of the Russian Federation and socio-political stability in the country. The modern world presents more and more unexpected challenges that require prompt response. As a result, in conditions of constant changes, there are practically no stable, reliable guidelines for the development of a long-term migration policy. Accordingly, the old migration management technologies become ineffective, and new ones are created literally "on the go", by trial and error. This helps to adapt migration policy to the rapidly changing challenges of the external environment. The analysis of legislation – the basis of state regulation of migration flows - proves the high variability of migration policy. However, there are currently no studies aimed at identifying and assessing the consequences that arise in the economy and social sphere due to frequent and sometimes contradictory changes in migration rules.

It can be hypothesized that the expansion of adaptive management methods into the field of migration policy is objective, but the focus on achieving local success in conditions of uncertainty contains risks for the medium and long term. After the COVID-19 pandemic, which became a powerful incentive for the introduction of adaptive management technologies in the management of migration flows, researchers increasingly insist on the need to study and assess the consequences of the use of such management technologies as soon as possible.

In Russia and the world, there is a constant search for methods to fine-tune immigration policy: as a result of the use of various programs and tools that ensure temporary and permanent flows of migrant workers, it is becoming more complex, diversified, selective, and capable of serving a wide range of economic goals.

Accordingly, the array of legal acts establishing or legalizing new management practices is constantly expanding, clarifying, and changing. According to experts, the regulation of labor migration and the management of this area is in a state of continuous innovative change.

This process of continuous improvement is objectively necessary in order for the policy of attracting migrant workers to become more effective, be able to quickly adapt to changing conditions, solve new problems and respond promptly, including to changes in the migration policy of other countries.

Appendix 1

Information about the acts and decisions mentioned in Table 4 that initiated various events that influenced changes in migration legislation

a) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated October 9, 2007 No. 1351 (as amended on 07/01/2014) "On approval of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2007. No. 42. St. 5009.

b) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 314 of March 9, 2004 (as amended on 04/12/2019) "On the system and structure of Federal executive authorities" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2004. No. 11. St. 945.

c) The Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 (approved by the President of the Russian Federation on June 13, 2012, No. Pr-1490) (expired).

d) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 636 dated May 21, 2012 "On the structure of federal executive authorities" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2012. No. 22. St. 2754.

e) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated December 31, 2015 No. 683 "On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2016. No. 1 (Part II). Article 212.

f) Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 298 dated April 15, 2014 "On approval of the State program of the Russian Federation "Promotion of employment of the population" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2014. No. 18. St. 2147.

g) Federal Law No. 409-FZ of December 1, 2014 "On Amendments to the Labor Code of the Russian Federation and Article 13 of the Federal Law "On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation" related to the specifics of regulating the work of employees who are Foreign citizens or stateless persons" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2014. No. 49 (part VI). Article 6918.

h) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated April 5, 2016 No. 156 (ed. dated 05/15/2018) "On improving public administration in the field of control over the turnover of narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances and their precursors and in the field of migration" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2016. No. 15. St. 2071.

i) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 622 dated October 31, 2018 "On the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation, 2018. No. 45. St. 6917.

j) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 58-rp dated March 6, 2019 (as amended on 07/06/2020) "On the working group on the implementation of the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2019. No. 10. St. 957.

k) Federal Law No. 544-FZ of December 27, 2018 "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2018. No. 53 (part I). Article 8470.

l) Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 207-r dated February 13, 2019 (as amended on 08/31/2019) <On the approval of the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025> // Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation. 2019. No. 7 (Part II). Article 702.

m) Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation dated March 28, 2019 No. 348 (as amended on 30.03.2020) "On Amendments to the State program of the Russian Federation "Promotion of employment of the population" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2019. No. 14 (part II). Article 1538.

n) Federal Law No. 134-FZ dated April 24, 2020 "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" regarding Simplification of the procedure for admission to Citizenship of the Russian Federation of foreign citizens and stateless persons" // Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation. 2020. No. 17. St. 2712.