The place of the climate agenda in modern global communications

Panova Elena Vasil'evna ORCID: 0000-0001-8782-3680 PhD in Politics Chief of Staff of the State Duma Committee; The State Duma of Russia 109012, Russia, Moscow, Okhotny Ryad str., 1 karrypoupe@gmail.com

Over the past 50 years, we have seen significant changes in the environmental policy of States. Environmental issues from a peripheral position have taken one of the central places not only in the domestic, but also in the foreign policy space. Technology development, environmental, economic and social crises have contributed to this in many ways.

The energy crisis in the 70s of the last century was the impetus for energy saving processes ^{[1, p.10]}. The development of nuclear energy and the chemical industry, industrial accidents led to the emergence of social protests and stimulated the globalization of the environmental agenda, the development of international cooperation in the formation of common principles of environmental policy of states. The leading role in this issue belongs to the United Nations, on the site of which the main international documents were formed. The 70s of the XX century became a turning point in the development of common approaches to the rational use of resources and environmental protection. They are reflected in the United Nations Declaration on the Environment ^[2], the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) ^[3] etc.

The main result of the decade was the consolidation of the environmental agenda at the global level. International teams of authors participated in the preparation of the report "Our Common Future" ^[4], which formed the basis for the Concept of Sustainable Development ^[5]. In a broad sense, the Concept of sustainable development is based on five principles ^[6].:

- humanity has the opportunity to make development sustainable and long-term in the interests of current and future generations;

- limitations in the use of natural resources are related to technological capabilities, social organization and the ability of the biosphere to cope with the consequences of human activity;

- Meeting the basic needs of all people and giving them the opportunity to achieve a more prosperous life;

- the need to align the interests of business and corporations with the environmental capabilities of the planet, especially with regard to energy consumption;

- the size and rate of population growth should be consistent with the changing productive potential of the Earth.

It is these principles that are embedded in the program action plan - "Agenda of the XXI century" ^[7]. The concept of sustainable development as a whole includes economic, social and environmental aspects. With its adoption, the restructuring of national strategies in environmental issues and the rational use of natural resources began, largely based on international principles and agreements.

If environmental policy issues were more controversial before the 2000s, then in 2002, after the adoption of the Political Declaration ^[8], in which Member States pledged to strengthen the interrelated foundations of sustainable development at all levels, a period of implementation began. In 2008, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution that emphasized the responsibility of each State for its sustainable development and the need for cooperation between states and international organizations ^[9]. The foundations of the ideology of world development for the coming decades were formed, which were reflected in such documents as "The Future we Want" (2012), the UN Sustainable Development Goals (2015) for the period 2016-2030 and the Paris Climate Agreement (2015). These documents recorded key messages that were broadcast around the world, to various social groups and decision makers.

The UN has approved 17 Sustainable Development Goals that cover various spheres of society and are interrelated ^[10]. Among them are 8 goals related to solving environmental problems, such as ensuring good health and well-being, access to clean water and sanitation, the use of inexpensive and environmentally friendly energy, the creation of sustainable cities and human settlements, responsible consumption and production, the preservation of marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the fight against climate change. Systematic work is underway on all goals, the results of which are constantly discussed on international platforms and generally do not cause controversy, with the exception of the topic of climate change.

This issue was considered in detail and studied simultaneously with the formation of the Concept of Sustainable Development, it was directly related to human economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. And at the first stage, priority was given to nature conservation. According to the conclusions of scientists, and then the statements of politicians, security on the planet and losses from natural phenomena depend on the impact of climate change ^[11].

In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted at the UN Conference ^[12]. In this treaty, the countries agreed to "stabilize the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in order to prevent dangerous interference of human activity in the climate system." The Convention has been signed by 197 different parties. Since 1994, when the Convention entered into force, Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) have been held annually. During such meetings, countries negotiate various extensions of the original treaty to establish legally binding emission limits and sign accompanying final documents. So, in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was signed ^[13], which fixed the obligations of countries to reduce emissions of pollutants. According to the protocol, the European Union has committed to reduce emissions by 8% by 2008-2012, the United States by 7%, and Japan by 6%. Although the Kyoto Protocol has been signed by 40 countries, not all of them have ratified it. Nevertheless, this document has become an important step in international environmental integration, a significant result of global communications. The Kyoto Protocol has committed industrialized countries and countries with economies in transition to achieve quantitative targets for reducing emissions of six greenhouse gases. The first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol lasted from 2008 to 2012. The Doha Amendment of 2012 established a second commitment period from 2013 to 2020.

In December 2015, the parties adopted The Paris Agreement ^[14], which requires all participating countries to identify, plan and regularly report on nationally determined emission reduction contributions (ONUV) that they undertake to mitigate the effects of climate change. The global goal is to prevent the temperature from rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the temperature recorded in the pre-industrial period. Gradually, the priority of nature conservation was replaced by the sustainability of economic and social systems.

The covid-19 pandemic and further global crises have finally reversed this transformation. Scientists have recorded only a temporary decrease in emissions caused by measures to protect against the pandemic, which quickly reached peak loads after the resumption of production facilities ^[15].

Based on scientific evidence, after the pandemic, the international community stepped up work on adaptation to climate change, adjusting individual decisions without changing the main goal of preventing temperature increases of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. We have analyzed the outcome documents of the Conference of the Parties (hereinafter referred to as the COP) over the past three years in order to identify the changes that have occurred that directly affect national strategies. To conduct an empirical analysis, the author used the documents of the United Nations and the Conference of the Parties, which were discussed and adopted by the majority of the participating countries in 2021-2023. The choice of this period is due to changes in international politics, which are associated with the aftermath of the pandemic, the beginning of the military operation in Ukraine, and the energy crisis.

COP26 took place in 2021 and ended with the signing of the Glasgow Climate Pact ^[16]. It confirms the goal of curbing global temperature growth at 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, as well as reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 percent by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and to zero by the middle of the century. The countries also agreed to make greater commitments in 2022, and to update national plans by setting more ambitious goals (only 23 countries submitted updated plans to the UN).

A key event was the discussion on the need for increased action and support, including financial and technological, to developing countries. Special attention was paid to plans to mobilize climate finance from all sources in the amount of over $100 billion per year.

Discussions were held on accelerating the development, implementation and dissemination of clean energy technologies; phasing out the development of coal-fired energy and providing subsidies for fossil fuels, while providing targeted support to the poor and most vulnerable segments of the population.

The importance of protecting, preserving and restoring nature and ecosystems was emphasized in order to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement, including through forests and other terrestrial and marine ecosystems acting as sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases.

The Climate Pact noted "recognition of the role of multilateralism in addressing climate change and promoting regional and international cooperation to strengthen action against climate change in the context of sustainable development <...> showing solidarity, especially with developing countries." Building partnerships between foundations, technical agencies, civil society and communities (indigenous peoples, local communities, etc.) to share experiences and opinions was also considered. Special attention was paid to young people, non-governmental observer organizations, and women.

As we can see from the analysis of the documents, COP-26 launched the process of more actively involving developing countries in the climate agenda and building plans for a gradual reduction in the use of fossil fuels, especially coal, the key target audience for promoting the climate agenda was identified by young people, whose separate involvement work began to be systematically built on the international platform.

At the Conference of the Parties-27 in 2022, the common goal was confirmed - to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 °C ^[17]. At the same time, the countries raised the issue of the inability to fulfill previously assumed obligations due to the situation in Ukraine, as this aggravated the global inflationary, energy and food crisis, disrupted the supply chains of goods and services. Germany has reduced climate targets in the short term, and the Chinese-American Climate Working Group has suspended its activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has confirmed that the current policies of nation States can lead to warming of 2.1–2.9 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. The current commitments of the countries will lead to an increase in emissions by 10.6% by 2030 compared to the level of 2010.

One of the main topics was the issue of compensation to developing countries from developed countries for the damage caused to them as a result of climate change. The issue was first raised at the summit in 1992. Its essence lies in the fact that, according to developing countries, developed countries bear the main responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions that led to global warming, and developing countries suffer from climate change, despite their insignificant contribution to the aggravation of this process. Therefore, it is the duty and responsibility of developed countries to assist them in implementing climate policy ^[18].

Back in 2009, at the COP-15 conference in Copenhagen, developed countries committed themselves to allocate $100 billion annually to developing countries by 2020 to implement programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the effects of extreme weather. However, this goal was not achieved. For example, the United States, which was supposed to provide $40 billion, allocated only $7.6 billion in 2020, Australia and Canada provided only a third of the funding, and the United Kingdom provided three quarters. Since it is estimated that 66% to 80% of the financing allocated by developed countries is directed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the issue of separate compensation for damage from natural disasters caused by climate change has been raised by developing countries. In other words, the issues of adaptation to climate change and damage compensation were separated in the course of the communication process between developed and developing countries.

At COP27, for the first time, developed countries agreed to allocate funds annually to compensate poor countries^[19] that contributed the least to the climate crisis. It was decided to create a special fund for financing losses and damage (hereinafter referred to as the Fund). At the same time, the initiative excluded the recognition of legal liability for climate-related damage by developed countries. A number of countries have promised to provide funding for the Fund, including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Canada, New Zealand, France, Germany, and Scotland.

It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the United States and the EU have fixed in the agreement a wording that can expand the donor base to include large developing economies, primarily China, which is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. China opposed this initiative, while expressing its willingness to provide funds and other assistance to developing countries.

The topic of the global transition to a low-carbon economy remained on the agenda, which was fixed in the Implementation Plan ^[20]. A proposal by India and more than 80 other countries to "phase out" all fossil fuels, not only coal but also oil and gas, has been blocked by major oil producers such as Canada and Saudi Arabia, as well as China.

With regard to climate finance, the Implementation Plan emphasized that about $4 trillion per year should be invested in renewable energy by 2030 in order to be able to achieve zero emissions by 2050. The provision of such financing will require a rapid transformation of the financial system, its structures and processes involving Governments, central and commercial banks, institutional investors and other financial actors.

To preserve ecosystems, it was launched A partnership of forestry and climate leaders that aims to bring together governments, businesses and community leaders to end forest loss and land degradation by 2030.

The outcome document recognized the important role of indigenous peoples, local communities, and civil society, including youth and children, in addressing and responding to climate change.

The outcome of COP-27 was the adoption of a specific action plan. It can identify three key areas: the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund to help developing countries, a bet on the development of renewable energy, including through the reform of financial institutions, and expanding the list of main beneficiaries of the fight against climate change.

The main event of COP28 in 2023 was the adoption of a Global Commitment on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency ^[21]. The document calls for tripling the world's capacity to produce energy from renewable sources by 2030. The final document does not include the thesis promoted by the United States and the EU on the need for a "phased complete abandonment of hydrocarbons", but contains the wording that fossil fuels make the most significant contribution to climate change and a "gradual withdrawal" from it is necessary. The terms and mechanisms of "care" are not specified in the document.

Against this background, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have presented a Charter on the decarbonization of Oil and Gas, which aims to accelerate action to combat climate change in this sector. The initiative was supported by 50 oil and gas companies from all over the world with a combined share of oil production of more than 40%, including Saudi Aramco, SOCAR, BP, ENI, Shell, PJSC LUKOIL, etc. Participants commit to reducing net carbon dioxide emissions to zero by 2050 or earlier and methane from oil and gas production to almost zero by 2030.

The final document of the COP also talks about the feasibility of developing low-carbon energy technologies, including nuclear energy, natural gas, "green" hydrogen and greenhouse gas capture technologies.

By the time of the COP-28 meeting in 2023, the Loss and Damage Fund was launched. The countries promised to transfer more than $650 million to his accounts. The decision to update national action plans to combat climate change has been postponed to 2025. As we can see, active communication processes are underway between the main participants to coordinate actions and commitments, while the strategic goal remains unchanged, but the deadlines for the implementation of previously approved programs are shifting to the right.

At COP-29 this year, the parties should specify the conditions for access to the funds of the Loss and Damage Fund, the practical implementation of the appeals of the Global Summing Up, and reach an agreement around collective adaptation and financing goals.

As we can see, the problem of climate change remains a key issue on the agenda of the international community. The main discussions are conducted around the topic of abandoning the use of fossil fuels, attempts are being made to consolidate the link "natural resources – climate change - responsibility" in international documents. Countries rich in natural resources, although they block this initiative, at the same time unite to develop their own proposals on this issue. Another important area of the international climate agenda is building relations with developing countries, which includes providing funds to combat the effects of climate change and adapting to changes through technological solutions. Children and youth have been identified as the main agents of the need to combat climate change, which confirms the strategic nature of the climate agenda.

The measures taken as a result of the agreements reached also indicate a further transformation of the existing system through the adjustment of national goals, diversification of the energy sector, economic reforms and changes in existing financial systems aimed at achieving climate goals.

In our opinion, the main factors that affect current processes include: the globalization of the climate issue, the urgency of the social agenda, including in developing countries, the unification of countries into alliances to promote and defend their own interests (the United States and the EU, developing countries, countries rich in natural resources, etc.), the economic situation, the interests of key actors.