Migration sentiments of modern youth of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

Nikolaeva Yana Andreevna ORCID: 0009-0000-9892-7311 Master's degree; Department of Sociology and Personnel Management; Northeastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov 677000, Russia, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Yakutsk, ul. Belinsky, 58, office 405 yankumi82@gmail.com

Neustroeva Aiza Borisovna ORCID: 0000-0001-8419-7135 PhD in Sociology Senior Researcher; Center for Regional Sociology, National Library of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) 677000, Russia, Sakha (Yakutia), Yakutsk, Lenin str., 40, office 32 aizok@mail.ru Other publications by this author

Introduction

For Yakutia, the importance of migration has always been huge. In Soviet times, the active development of the North and the Arctic was ensured by an external influx of labor resources and mass migration of labor from other regions, which made it possible to smooth out labor market imbalances and use the educational potential of skilled migrants. With the advent of a market economy in the 90s, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) began to experience a colossal outflow of population from the north, which led to the mass liquidation of settlements and the closure of enterprises ^{[1, 2, 3]}. They tried to compensate for the shortage of labor resources through cheap foreign labor migration from neighboring countries ^[4]. In the 2000s, the migration outflow of the population of Yakutia continued, although not on the same scale as in the 90s ^{[5, 6, 7]}. In 2020, for the first time, the number of visitors to Yakutia exceeded the number of those leaving by 5,959 people, and in 2021 - by 8,569 people (Figure 1). The pandemic played an important role in reducing migration outflow. If until 2019, natural growth made the greatest contribution to the increase in the population of the republic, then in 2020-2021 there was a significant migration influx of the population, which compensated for the decrease in natural growth. However, since 2022, the emerging migration growth has again been replaced by a trend of increasing population attrition (the number of departures exceeded the number of arrivals by 3,779 people). Under the influence of socio-political and economic conditions of the country's development, a more significant share of the migrant flow from the region is made up of young people under the age of 35 ^{[8, 9, 10]}, which leads to a variety of problems, both regional and global in nature ^{[11, 12]} and makes it relevant to study the motives and intentions of young residents regarding moving from Yakutia, identifying the causes of emigration.

Figure 1 - General results of population migration in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), 2000-2020 (person), data from the website of the FSGS for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

The purpose of this article was to identify migration attitudes among the youth of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The study focuses on the socio-demographic characteristics of potential young emigrants from Yakutia, as well as on determining the preferred directions of their migration. The study also revealed what exactly shapes migration moods among residents of the region, why they are considering moving, and what reasons stimulate the outflow of young people from Yakutia.

Research methodology

The main method of collecting information was a questionnaire survey of residents of Yakutia aged 17 to 35 years, conducted in October 2023. The study uses a random (probabilistic) method, which includes a simple random selection of analysis units. The sample size was 239 respondents, of which 40% were men and 60% were women. Both urban and rural residents took part in the survey, in total more than 9 districts of Yakutia and the city of Yakutsk were covered. The age distribution of respondents was as follows: from 17 to 20 years old – 14.8%, from 21 to 25 years old – 38.1%, from 26 to 30 years old – 33.9%, from 31 to 35 years old – 13.1%. More than 80% of respondents were Sakha, 6.4% were Russians, 5.5% were representatives of indigenous small–numbered peoples of the North, 8% - other nationalities. The majority of the surveyed youth have never been married (45.3%), 39% were married, 12.3% were in a civil marriage. 50.4% of the respondents had children, including 25% – one child, 19.5% – two children, 6.4% – three or more children. Students of secondary specialized and higher educational institutions (36%), working youth (44.1%), unemployed and housewives (19.5%) were interviewed.

Potential migration of young people

The youth survey showed that only 9.7% of respondents planned to stay in the future in the locality where they currently live. Among the adherents of the sedentary strategy, girls, young people over the age of 26, and family respondents with children prevailed. The majority of young people (80.1%) would like to move to another place, of which 20.8% planned to leave for education and work experience, but then would return home, and 23.3% thought about leaving irrevocably. More than 36% of respondents would like to leave, but have not yet had the opportunity to move. Among those planning to move to another place for permanent residence, there were more men, respondents aged 17-25, single and divorced, unemployed and students. 41.3% of young girls surveyed, 48.9% of family respondents and 47.1% of respondents with children did not have the opportunity to leave the settlement, but so far they did not have the opportunity. This fact suggests that marital status and having children is becoming one of the holding factors.

The survey revealed the willingness of young people to move to another region of Russia and abroad. As can be seen from Table 1, among young people, more than 52.2% would like to move to another region of Russia, 46.6% would like to emigrate abroad. About 18% of young people plan to stay in Yakutia. Emigration sentiments were highest among men aged 17 to 25 years – 25.5% wanted to move to another region, 27.7% – to another country. A comparison of responses depending on the nationality of the respondents showed that among Russians there were more willing to migrate to another region of Russia (46.7%), while among Sakha there were more willing to move abroad (47.6%). Again, as in the previous question, migration sentiments were least pronounced among family respondents, respondents with children and working people. Most of those who planned to move were among respondents without education, unemployed, single and childless.

Table 1. Readiness to move from the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), to %

The study revealed a direct relationship between potential migration from the region and the positive experience of tourist travel abroad. So among the respondents who have been to another country at least once, 26.6% already definitely planned to leave Yakutia in the future, and 27.4% replied that they would most likely move. Among those who have never been abroad, 13.9% of respondents wanted to move, the rest did not plan to move.

There is also a correlation between the desire to emigrate and satisfaction with the standard of living in the republic: the more dissatisfied the respondent was with his life, the more often he wanted to move abroad and vice versa. Thus, among those dissatisfied with the standard of living in Yakutia, more than 57.5% of respondents planned to move to another country. Among those satisfied with the standard of living in the region, the majority did not plan to move to another country (47%).

Reasons for migration

Migration from the region is caused by a complex of factors and causes, some of which push out of the region, while others attract to other regions ^{[13, 14, 15]}. These are family, climatic, geographical, cultural, social, economic and political reasons. In the survey, the majority of respondents cited the desire to ensure a better future for their children and family as the leading reason for a possible move from Yakutia (55.1%), which underlines the importance of family values for young people (Figure 2). The second most important factor of emigration, which was pushing out, are the harsh natural and climatic conditions of living in Yakutia, which make you think about moving to a climatically more favorable region. The desire to travel and lead a busy life also has a significant impact on young people when they decide to migrate. In addition, economic motives related to the search for a higher standard of living and material well-being play an important role in making the decision to emigrate.

Figure 2. Reasons why young people would leave for permanent residence in another country/region

The reasons for moving from Yakutia identified in the survey can be compared with the reasons for emigration of foreign residents to the republic. According to the Federal State Statistics Service in the Republic of Yakutia (Sakha), the main reasons for the change of residence of arriving foreign citizens aged 14 and older are relocation in connection with work (82%), personal and family reasons (marriage, moving to children, to parents) (8.4%), other reasons (4.6%), due to studies (1.7%).

The reasons why young people might leave for another country or another region of Russia in the future varied greatly depending on gender, age, level of education and social status. Compared to young people, the important reasons for emigration for girls were family and children (60.8%), a more favorable climate (55%), a high level of social guarantees (31.7%), more political freedoms (21.2%). For men, the reasons for migration were more important, such as the desire to travel and see the world (55.3%), improved financial situation (46.8%), career opportunities (42.6%), job search (6.4%). The younger the respondents were, the more important their financial situation was, the desire to see life abroad, the search for a better life, professional self-realization and interesting work. The older the respondent was, the more often he chose the answer option – he would migrate for the sake of family and children, for the sake of political freedom, because of the harsh natural and climatic conditions.

The willingness of young people to move

To the question "To what extent are you now ready to go abroad for permanent residence?" 42.8% of respondents replied that they only sometimes think about it, but have not yet taken any action, 32.2% of respondents did not think about emigration at all, 14% are already considering ways to implement a possible move, choose According to the migration strategy and the future direction for moving, only 2.9% replied that they had made a firm decision to leave Yakutia for another country, of which 0.4% had already issued exit documents. Among the respondents who made a firm decision to leave Yakutia, women prevailed (3.1%), respondents aged 31-35 years (6.5%), with higher education (6.3%), married in a civil (unregistered) marriage (6.9%), childless, having a positive experience of tourist travel abroad. Men (14.9%), respondents aged 17-20 (20%), Russians and mixed nationalities (21.4%), single (21.5%) prevailed among those considering the possibility of leaving.

According to 76.7% of respondents, mainly only those who have certain resources (material, financial, professional, social, etc.) go abroad. Other studies also confirm this statement – when moving, the presence of social ties at the place of possible relocation plays a significant role, and most often those who have and where there are acquaintances, relatives, and friends, that is, greater access to social capital is assumed through the opportunities of those already living there ^{[16, 17]}.

We were also interested in what kind of image of "abroad" has developed among modern youth. To this end, the question was asked "Do you agree with the statement that "life is better abroad"?" The survey showed that 11.4% of respondents fully agreed with this statement and believed that life in other countries is much better than in Russia. More than 41% of the young people surveyed agreed with this statement rather than disagreed. Among the respondents who believed that life in other countries was better, girls (55%), school students (56.4%), respondents who had never traveled outside the country (50.5%), and dissatisfied with the standard of living in the region (66.2%) prevailed.

19.1% of young respondents completely disagreed that life abroad is better than in Russia. Among them, men (25.5%), respondents aged 17-25 (22.9%), Russians (40%), respondents with higher education (25%), students (29.4%) with a positive experience of tourist travel (20.2%), satisfied with the standard of living in the region (32.4%) prevailed.

Which foreign countries were most impressed by young people for moving to a permanent place of residence? The majority of respondents would like to move to Kazakhstan (16.7%), the United States of America (16.3%) and Canada (15.5%). South Korea was next in popularity (11.7%), and European countries in general (7.5%). Among other regions of Russia that respondents would like to move to, many noted St. Petersburg (17.6%), Moscow (17.2%), Krasnodar Territory (11.3%) and Vladivostok (10%).

To the question "How do you feel about people who move abroad?" 53.4% of young respondents replied that they are positive, sympathetic and understanding, 42.8% were neutral, indifferent, and 1.7% showed a negative attitude and condemnation. Respondents expressed an even more indifferent and neutral attitude towards famous people from Yakutia, artists, and bloggers moving abroad after the start of the military operation – 61.4%. Only 11% noted a positive attitude towards emigrated famous personalities, while 20.3% of respondents were sympathetic.

The scale of emigration from the region is indicated by the respondents' answers to the question "Are there any of your relatives and friends who have moved to live in another region of Russia or abroad for permanent residence in the last two or three years?" More than 65.3% of respondents answered in the affirmative, 26.7% – in the negative. Also, 39.8% of respondents continued to communicate and maintain contacts with emigrated relatives and acquaintances.

According to 60.6% of the surveyed youth, migration sentiments are strongly expressed among the local population, which in the coming years will lead to an increase in people leaving Yakutia for other regions of Russia. More than 28.4% of respondents found it difficult to assess the migration of the population from Yakutia, and 11% of respondents believe that migration to other regions will decrease and, conversely, many of those who moved will return home to the republic. The largest proportion of those who believed that even more people would leave Yakutia were among women, respondents aged 26-30, Russians and Sakha with higher education, and family respondents with children.

Estimates regarding the change in the number of people leaving for other countries were even more negative, as 72.5% of young people believe that in the coming years the emigration of the population from the region abroad will increase, and 11.4% think that emigration will decrease. Most of the respondents who held the opinion about the growth of emigration from the region in the near future were among women, respondents aged 31-35, Sakha, family respondents, respondents with children.

The main factors that prevent young people from leaving Yakutia for other regions of Russia and abroad were financial problems (35.2%), unwillingness to leave their relatives (21.6%), lack of knowledge of the language and culture of other peoples (15.3%) and fear of uncertainty and uncertainty in the future (15.3%). The young people were least concerned about such circumstances as lack of work and connections, lack of real estate.

To the question "What role will political factors play when deciding to emigrate to another country?" 36% of young people answered that they are very important, 39% believed that political conditions are important, but do not play a decisive role. Only 7.2% of respondents indicated that political factors are not decisive when deciding on emigration, the remaining 17.8% found it difficult to answer. The attitude of young people towards those who left Russia in connection with the beginning of partial mobilization was as follows: 30.5% were neutral, 23.7% – with understanding and sympathy, 17.8% – approved of such a decision, 14.8% did not react in any way, answering that they did not care, only 3% reacted sharply negatively with condemnation. The most positive assessments of the emigration of men from the country due to the desire to leave mobilization were among women (20.1%), respondents aged 31-35 years (25.8%), representatives of indigenous small peoples of the North (38.5%), respondents with higher education, family and with children.

Thus, the migration sentiment in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has deep socio-economic roots. Dissatisfaction with the standard of living, especially among young people, leads to an increased desire to move to other regions of Russia or abroad. This, in turn, creates a threat of an outflow of qualified personnel and further depopulation of the region. Among the main reasons that encourage people to consider emigration are the desire to improve the quality of life, unfavorable natural and climatic conditions, the desire to travel and a more fulfilling life. The development of effective measures aimed at creating favorable conditions for life and work in the republic, as well as the retention of young people, is becoming a priority for local authorities.