On the issue of migration intentions of modern students

Boldysheva Natal'ya Olegovna ORCID: 0000-0002-8948-2901 PhD in Economics Associate Professor; Department of Sociology; Federal State Educational Institution of Higher Education Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 49/2 Leningradsky str., Moscow, 125167, Russia nboldysheva@mail.ru Other publications by this author

Domareva Irina Sergeevna student; Department of Sociology; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 125167, Russia, Moscow, Moscow, Leningradsky ave., 49/2 dis_2002@bk.ru

In modern domestic and foreign scientific literature, the context of considering the migration intentions of university students is quite wide and includes issues of the personnel potential of the regional economy, "brain drain", factors and motives of post-educational migration.

Taking into account regional specifics is certainly important when analyzing migration intentions, while existing studies also show general trends in the development of students' migration attitudes, which have been formed over the years.

An analysis of the domestic scientific literature on inter-regional and international post-educational migration issues allows us to conclude that there is a consistently high level of migration sentiment associated with employment or continuing education.

For example, a large-scale study in 2016 showed that after receiving higher education, from 42 to 51% of respondents in the Southern, Far Eastern, Siberian, and North Caucasian federal districts are ready to move if they are offered a good job in another city or in another country, while the option "in another country" was chosen from 11 to 41% of respondents ^[1].

A study conducted in the Altai Territory showed that only about a third of respondents (32%) plan to return to their small homeland after graduation, 40.5% plan to move permanently to other cities after graduation, 27.5% find it difficult to answer ^[2].

According to a sociological survey conducted in 2020 in the Kemerovo region, only 29% of university students plan to work and live in their region after receiving higher education ^{[3, p.328]}.

In the Republic of Buryatia in 2018, a sociological survey was conducted, which allowed us to assert that the migration intentions of students are quite formalized - 30.7% of respondents at the time of the study planned to change their place of residence after graduation. At the same time, 77.9% of the surveyed young people would like to move to other regions of Russia, that is, the main type of potential migration of student youth in the republic is interregional ^{[4, p.149]}

Of course, youth migration can have a negative impact on the socio–economic situation in regions for which the loss of the working-age population is considered a serious, difficult problem to solve.

Lukyanets A.S. and Maksimova A.S. in their research show that the international migration intentions of young people are rather related to temporary forms of stay abroad. Potential educational migrants are focused on return migration, and more than half of labor migrants are also not ready for permanent employment, and see labor migration as only a temporary channel to maintain or improve their material well-being ^[5].

However, it is important to note that a high level of migration intentions is not an unambiguous indicator of potential migration actions.

When conducting research on migration intentions, the issue of interpreting the results is extremely important. As Varshavskaya E. Ya. and Chudinovskikh O. S. note, quite often the answers about migration sentiments are interpreted as a formed decision to emigrate, however, there is a very long distance between reflections and real steps towards departure, including abroad ^[6].

Based on the results of the study, the above-mentioned authors show that a small number of respondents can be attributed to potential migrants. When asked about the likelihood of personal departure abroad, only 4.7% of respondents chose the answer options "I have made the decision to leave in principle" and "I am definitely leaving".

Speaking about the economic factors of migration, it is important to note that the factor stimulating departure abroad is the negative perception of the current socio-economic situation and the expectation of its change for the worse is a factor ^{[6, p. 56]}.

Continuing the conversation about the factors influencing migration sentiments, it is important to emphasize their diversity and contextuality. For example, the results of a study conducted in Kaliningrad show the connection of migration intentions (or lack thereof) with the life strategies and plans of young people, the impact of changes in political and cultural life in local and global dimensions, as well as interpretations of belonging to the city and patriotic sentiments ^[7].

The results of the study by Rocheva A. L. And Varshaver E. A., in which not only Russian but also foreign students of Russian universities acted as respondents, demonstrate that for foreign students, attachment to their native country and confidence in employment in Russia are a factor, for students from among local youth and migrants of the second and one and a half generations, the presence of ties with people living in Russia or other countries. It is important to emphasize that "objective" economic indicators of well-being (wages) are less significant for the migration plans of working youth than "subjective" indicators, such as satisfaction with income, economic situation or work in general. The factor that "pushes" young people out of Russia, regardless of their occupation and migration background, is a sense of legal insecurity ^[8].

The main factors influencing the migration sentiments of graduates of universities in Siberia and the Far East are: low wages in the region of residence, poor infrastructure and housing provision, problems of self-realization, including difficulties in obtaining high-quality higher education ^[9].

The migration intentions of Russian students are not unique, as evidenced by the results of research by foreign scientists. Thus, examining the post-crisis situation in 2011, Assirelli, G., Barone, C., and Recchi, E. conclude that university graduates from upper-middle-class families, graduates with degrees in natural sciences or international fields, with the highest academic performance are more likely to migrate outside the country. Compared to those who remain, they receive wage advantages, reduce the risk of unemployment, and increase access to skilled employment and career advancement ^[10].

Trends persist ten years after the end of the 2008 crisis, as demonstrated by more modern research. So Giacalone, M., Mattera, R., and Panarello, D. found that life experience, family background, and economic factors can explain the desire to move, and that graduates from southern Italy are much more likely to move to another geographical region in search of work compared to Italians from northern regions, while graduating The score does not lead to significant differences in the probability of migration ^[11].

Swedish researchers RehákŠ., Eriksson R. They note the role of the university in securing graduates in the region and emphasize that investments in improving the quality of higher education must necessarily be linked to a policy of broader support for the regional economy ^[12].A study on the migration intentions of students of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Financial University) was conducted in 2023-2024.

Research methodology. The sociological study consisted of two stages. During the first stage, a quantitative study was conducted and 400 respondents were interviewed, including students of the University of Finance studying undergraduate educational programs. At the second stage of the study, 12 in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with graduate students.

The results of the study. The purpose of the study was to study the migration intentions of students in the current socio–economic situation. It is logical to assume that the changes taking place in society and the national economy, which is under severe international sanctions, on the one hand, and demonstrating economic growth in conditions of labor shortage, on the other hand, can have an impact on the migration intentions of young people, both in a positive and negative way.The objectives of the study included the study of both external and internal migration intentions.The results of the study showed that migration intentions are mainly related to plans for continuing education or employment, however, a number of respondents associate migration and matrimonial plans.The study revealed a fairly high level of interregional migration intentions of students. The majority of respondents (71.2%) do not plan to return to their hometown for further life.Intentions to migrate abroad are also mainly related to plans to continue education or employment. Of those who answered positively to the question about their intentions to travel abroad, 28.3% of respondents plan to continue their education abroad, their interest is due to the desire to receive a high-quality education and expand their prospects in the labor market, and 30.2% of respondents want to find a job abroad to implement career growth and financial well-being plans. Migration intentions may also be based on matrimonial plans: 20.5% of respondents do not exclude the creation of a family with a foreign citizen, 7.8% would like to go to relatives to spend time with them or gain experience of living in another culture. Other purposes of departure, which included travel, learning a foreign language or internships, were noted by 13.2% of respondents. During the interview, some respondents showed confidence that their migration intentions would translate into real actions, so one of the interviewees said: "... I want to try my hand abroad to get more opportunities in career, personal and financial growth ...". There were statements reflecting changes in the socio – economic situation to one degree or another: "I have been and lived abroad, I saw that living there gives me more freedom, opportunities and diversity than I could get here..."However, quotes from interviews with respondents show that not all migration intentions will be realized. So one of the interviewees said: "I have not seen enough yet to decide on the issue of migration, I believe that you need to travel around the world first, and then draw conclusions and decide on your future life, it's the same experience...." There were also students who were passionate about the culture of another country: "I have always been interested in Korean culture, food, and traditions, so I am considering moving to South Korea for myself. I plan to continue my higher education there...".It is logical to assume that the respondent's income level affects his migration intentions. Middle-income respondents are more likely to plan a move both domestically and abroad. The share of those who are not going to move is 11.2% for respondents with income up to 30 thousand rubles, 4.8% for respondents with income from 31 to 50 thousand rubles and 10.3% for respondents with income over 51 thousand rubles.

Since migration requires significant financial costs, the respondent's answer (income up to 30,000 rubles) seems to be a good illustration of this position: "I do not have a sufficient airbag to migrate now, maybe later it will work out, now I cannot take such risks, and there is not much choice ...".

The results of the study showed that representatives of high-income groups are more likely to demonstrate migration intentions related to continuing education or employment. Representatives of low- and middle-income groups are more likely to implement matrimonial plans, or leave for a short period of time, for example, for an internship. In the interview, it was possible to get more detailed information that migration is also associated with the desire to get a better education and the opportunity to realize their potential. In this context, the respondent's quote (income over 51,000 rubles) reads as follows: "It is important to me that I have the opportunity to get an education and develop professionally. I don't want to focus on opportunities that can only be available abroad, but an international diploma of education opens up a lot of opportunities that I think it's stupid to refuse....." The factors influencing the decision to leave include the influence of the family. As one of the interviewees said: "I can't leave without my family's consent. It's too important to me..." Another interviewee noted: "... they (relatives – approx. the authors) will definitely be against my migration, they themselves will not be able to live abroad, and they are just afraid to let me go. We will definitely quarrel if I leave..." However, other points of view have been expressed, for example: "My family has always supported my aspirations and my goals, so I don't feel that they are hindering my decision to leave," the respondent said.

The respondents themselves are quite loyal to the migration of their family members or other people. Of the total number of respondents, 35.1% have a positive attitude towards the migration of other people abroad, 45.4% are neutral, 15.6% are negative, and 3.9% found it difficult to answer.

The following quotes from the interview illustrate the quantitative data well: "I am neutral about migration, I have friends who have already moved to America, I miss them of course, but I see that they are happy with their life there at the moment..." or "... my mother is struggling to learn Turkish, she really likes everything related to Turkey, I I am already mentally ready that sooner or later she will want to move there to live...".

Many students today combine work and study, among them the proportion of those inclined to travel abroad is about 36%. A quote from one of the respondents reflects this situation: "...I've been thinking about a career in Russia all my life. I was ready to work hard to achieve my goals here, but I realized that connections decide everything, so I decided to go abroad to build my future on my own..."

In conclusion, it should be noted that modern students demonstrate rational behavior in questions about migration intentions, clearly comparing the costs and expected results of migration. A comparison of the data from existing domestic studies and the results of this study allowed us to conclude that there have been no significant changes in migration intentions. The level of migration sentiment has been quite high over the past ten years, but it is important to remember the difference between intentions and actual actions. Foreign researchers also show that young people tend to seek better conditions for further education and employment.The factors influencing the migration moods of young people include income level, family attitude to migration plans, the presence of friends or relatives abroad, the desire to see the world and get acquainted with another culture.The respondents did not demonstrate a negative perception of the current socio-economic situation and expectations of its change for the worse, rather, migration moods are inscribed in the student's life context, his educational, career and matrimonial plans.