Federal Development Institutions as a tool for ensuring economic security in the system of strategic planning of the region's economy: problems and prospects of development (on the example of the Far Eastern Federal District)

Eritsyan Grigor Arturovich Postgraduate student; Faculty of Public Administration; Lomonosov Moscow State University 143401, Russia, Moscow region, Krasnogorsk, Pavshinsky blvd., 40, sq. 9 eri.nune2010@yandex.ru

Introduction

Ensuring the advanced socio-economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District is one of the priorities of ensuring the economic security of the Russian Federation. Development institutions are one of the key instruments of economic policy, whose activities are aimed at implementing the above-mentioned priority of ensuring economic security. At the same time, as part of the analysis of the preliminary results of the activities of development institutions, we will consider the significant problems in the application of this instrument of economic policy and the system of strategic planning of the economy as a whole. 

The purpose of this article is to develop a management system for development institutions, subject to the formation of a strategic economic planning system.

In accordance with the purpose, the following research objectives are set:

- definition of the concept of the institute of development, reflecting the essence of this instrument of economic policy, including in order to ensure economic security;

- research on the activities of development institutions in the framework of the implementation of the goals of socio-economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District;

- identification of key problems in the activities of development institutions and the system of strategic planning for the development of the region;

- substantiation of the need to improve the existing model of strategic planning of the economy in order to increase the effectiveness of development institutions.

The main approaches to the definition of development institutions

The term "development institute" was introduced into scientific and practical use by the state, while the term development bank, which should be attributed to development institutions, was first used ^[1] in relation to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, established in 1944 to promote the restoration and further development of the post-war world.

In Russian science, generalizing, the concept of "development institute" is interpreted in a broad and narrow sense. In a broad sense, development institutions should include organizations created by the state, whose activities are aimed at eliminating "market failures", including solving four tasks in the state economic policy:

· overcoming market failures in the field of innovation;

· elimination of institutional failures (formation of missing but necessary market segments);

· development of economic (energy, transport, other communications) and social infrastructure;

· elimination of significant regional development imbalances^[2].

By P. Roberts, development institutions are already considered as financial organizations unique to developing and least developed countries, providing long-term financing of high-risk projects for the industrialization of the economy^[16]. A possible omission of this definition by P. Roberts can be noted the insufficient coverage of the functions performed by development institutions and the territorial coverage of the application of this economic policy instrument, since this instrument is also used in the economic policy of developed countries. It is also worth noting that this concept reveals the main purpose of the functioning of development institutions related to bridging gaps and imbalances in the economic development of various regions and countries, while this concept applies only to development banks and reflects only one of the forms of support provided by development institutions.

In a narrow sense, in some studies, development institutions are considered as instruments of public policy that stimulate innovation processes and infrastructure development using public-private partnerships^[3]. 

In the legislation of the Russian Federation, development institutions define organizations whose purpose is to promote public policy and (or) the development of certain sectors of the economy (the term is used in the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 12/28/2020 N 3579-r (ed. dated 06/29/2023) "On approval of methodological recommendations on the formation and application of key performance indicators of joint-stock Companies, the shares of which are owned by the Russian Federation, and individual non-profit organizations in order to determine the amount of remuneration for their senior staff").

Within the framework of this article, development institutions are understood in a broad sense and are defined as organizations established in order to overcome structural, regional imbalances and "failures" in socio-economic development by providing financial and non-financial support measures within the framework of state-established goals and functions of activity.

At the moment, the role of development institutions in ensuring the economic security of the state in economic science has not been sufficiently studied. The relevance of this problem, which consists in the need to link the activities of development institutions with the priorities of ensuring economic security, is indicated by domestic economists.

 In particular, E. Buchwald notes the need for correspondence in the national security strategy between its most important provisions (challenges, threats and ways to eliminate them) and mechanisms that should ensure their implementation in practice, in particular development institutions^[4].

The influence of development institutions on ensuring the economic security of the state

Considering the role of development institutions in ensuring economic security, it should be noted that the Economic Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, approved by Presidential Decree No. 208 dated May 13, 2017 "On the Economic Security Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030", sets as a priority the economic security of the country, including ensuring the priority development of the economic potential of the Eastern Siberia, the Far North, the Far East, the North Caucasus, the Crimea and the Kaliningrad region.

The implementation of this priority of ensuring economic security involves the interaction of development institutions that are participants in government programs with business and the public, which is expressed in the provision of financial and non-financial support measures by development institutions.

Assessing the impact of development institutions on the dynamics of socio-economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District, let us consider the current results of the implementation of the State Program "Socio-Economic Development of the Far Eastern Federal District", in which the development institutes of the Far East participate. 

Table No. 1. Information on the achievement of the goals of the state program "Socio-economic Development of the Far Eastern Federal District" (compiled by the author according to the Ministry of the Russian Federation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic ^[5])

Considering the degree to which the goals of the State Program "Socio-Economic Development of the Far Eastern Federal District" have been achieved over the last reporting period, 3 out of 5 targets have not been achieved, which is due, among other things, to shortcomings in the strategic planning system for the development of the region, including in terms of the decomposition of individual targets to final measures and risk management in terms of achieving planned targets values of indicators . At the same time, it is also worth noting that 2 out of 3 unachieved targets of the State Program "Socio-economic Development of the Far Eastern Federal District" are integral indicators, the achievement of which does not directly depend on the implementation by development institutions of the activities of this state program. At the same time, the implementation of the measures of the state program does not allow achieving the planned values of the above indicators.

P.A. Minakir, assessing the implementation of the State Program "Socio-economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District", also notes: "On the one hand, the development program looks satisfactory from the point of view of quantitative indicators reflecting the formation and functioning of institutional formats. On the other hand, the macroeconomic and demographic dynamics, the fundamental changes of which are the goal of the ongoing institutional efforts, show the absence of any significant changes"^[6].

According to the results of the reform of development institutions by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2020, JSC KRDV remained the only development institution at the federal level whose specialization is related to ensuring the advanced development of the Far East. In the studies devoted to the analysis of the influence of this development institute on the socio-economic development of the Far East, it is necessary to highlight the work of G.A. Borshchevsky, in which a comprehensive analysis of the contribution of this mechanism of state policy to the dynamics of socio-economic indicators of the Far East was carried out.

Having assessed the impact of preferential regimes administered by KRDV JSC using the "main components" method, the researcher notes that this economic policy tool has a positive impact on the dynamics of socio-economic development of only half of the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District^[7]. In this regard, the hypothesis about the positive impact of development institutions on the dynamics of socio-economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District as a whole, taking into account the preservation of the current conditions of their functioning, cannot be confirmed. 

At the same time, to confirm this hypothesis, within the framework of this study, a quantitative analysis of the assessment of the contribution of JSC KRDV to the socio-economic development of the Far East was also carried out by constructing a multifactorial linear regression model based on data posted on the Internet information and communication network. 

Prerequisites for building a multifactorial linear regression model: 

assessment of the impact of the key indicator characterizing the effectiveness of the activity of this development institution (the accumulated volume of investments of residents of the territories of advanced development) on the dynamics of the gross regional product;

the importance of the results of the development Institute's activities and certain socio-economic indicators that have a positive impact on the economic growth of the Far Eastern Federal District;

the need to analyze the correlation between the dynamics of growth in the performance of development institutions and indicators characterizing the socio-economic development of the region;

attribution of other socio-economic indicators to factors that have a positive impact on the socio-economic development of the region, for comparison with the contribution of the development institute to the growth of the gross regional product of the region.

Within the framework of this model, in order to confirm the above hypothesis, the factors that have a positive impact on the socio-economic development of the Far East include: the growth of investments by residents of advanced development points administered by JSC KRDV, the commissioning of fixed assets, labor productivity growth, an increase in the volume of investments in fixed assets in the gross regional product, growth the share of high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors of the economy in the structure of the gross regional product, the growth in the number of high-performance jobs.

  The sample for building the model was based on Rosstat data for 2016-2022, collected as part of the analysis of the efficiency of the country's economy^[8]. The equation of the model, through which it is possible to assess the degree of influence of the above factors on the growth of the gross regional product of the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District, has the following form:

(1.0)

where is the volume of investments of residents of the TOP, administered by KRDV JSC, in the Far Eastern Federal District, – commissioning of fixed assets in the Far Eastern Federal District, – the share of high–tech and knowledge–intensive sectors of the economy in the GRP of the Far Eastern Federal District, - the number of high-performance jobs by type of economic activity in the Far Eastern Federal District, - gross regional product in the Far Eastern Federal District.

According to the parameters of the obtained model, the beta coefficients determining the strength of the influence of the factors xi taken into account on the growth rate of retail trade turnover have the following values:

In order to determine the significance of the obtained coefficients, the Student coefficients were calculated:

Based on the results of checking the significance of these coefficients that affect the growth dynamics of the gross regional product of the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District, guided by the obtained values of the Student coefficient, it is also possible to confirm the absence of the significance of the beta coefficient confirming the positive or negative impact of the growth in investment volumes of residents of the TOP on the growth of the gross regional product of the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District. In this connection, it should be noted that the results of the application of the multifactorial linear regression model may indicate the absence of significance of the positive impact of the activities of JSC KRDV as a key institution for the development of the Far Eastern Federal District on the growth of the gross regional product. The results of the quantitative analysis also do not allow us to draw conclusions about the confirmation of the hypothesis of the positive influence of development institutions on the dynamics of socio-economic development of the region. The findings also strengthen the arguments about the need for further government work to synchronize the performance indicators of development institutions with indicators of socio-economic development in the framework of optimizing the activities of development institutions and improving the system of strategic planning of the economy.

Problems and prospects of improving the strategic planning of the economy (using the example of the problems of strategic planning for the development of the Far Eastern Federal District)

It is worth noting that the current system of strategic planning of socio-economic development is indicative planning, limited to the establishment of individual development priorities. This form of strategic planning provides for the implementation of the goals and objectives of public policy through the approval and implementation of program and target documents, which include state programs and national projects. At the same time, the use of this form of planning leads to risks of strengthening sectoral and regional imbalances in the structure of the economy, includes risks of duplication of activities aimed at achieving similar goals and objectives set out in various strategic planning documents, may include justification for the formation and inclusion of activities in program-target documents by lobbying the interests of individual interest groups to the detriment national ones.

As part of the analysis of the effectiveness of strategic planning for the socio-economic development of the Far East, we note the research of P.A. Minakir, A.L. Abramov, A.G. Aganbegyan, Yu.Yu. Avdeev, G.A. Borshchevsky, and others, the problems hindering the sustainable socio-economic development of the region focused on the growth of public welfare are noted.

Thus, P.A. Minakir notes that the likely results of the economic policy in the Far East, conducted since 2015 and aimed at ensuring the advanced development of the region, will be, among other things:

further structural imbalance and simplification of the structure of the region's economy;

the dominance of the parameters of external and intra-national growth over the parameters of economic growth in the region;

stagnation of the parameters of economic development in the region, which implies the impossibility of entering the mode of formation of the regional economic complex^[9].

It is worth noting that these problems, indicated by P.A. Minakir, remain unresolved and indicate the risks of increasing the disproportionality of socio-economic development, provided that the current system of strategic planning of the economy is maintained. 

A.L. Abramov, N.N. Matvienko and P.E. Osipov attach great importance to the formation of a strategy and a comprehensive program for the development of the region, the introduction and implementation of a new model of regional management, complemented by continuous planning systems^[10]. 

A.G. Aganbegyan notes an accelerated increase in the general economic potential, the level of social development and the quality of the population as the main task of the development of the Far Eastern Federal District, while in the national development program the accelerated development of the region is reduced only to the growth rates and the volume of attracted investments^[11]. 

Yu.Yu. Avdeev identifies the insufficiency of a systemic nature in the development strategy of the Far East and the need for political decision-making at the federal level and the involvement of the country's business structures in solving social and economic problems of the region's development^[12], G.A. Borshchevsky raises the problem of the lack of the possibility of statistical evaluation of the results of the application of certain economic policy instruments within the framework of the implementation of goals and objectives of socio-economic development.- economic development of the Far East^[13], and A.P. Latkin and Yu.Yu. Makievskaya, within the framework of the analysis of the strategic planning system of the region, such problems as the vagueness of goals and objectives in the program and target documents of the socio-economic development of the region and the lack of opportunities to achieve certain goals of these documents are highlighted^[14].

One of the reasons for the lack of a significant effect from the activities of development institutions in the region is the concentration of resources around a limited number of investment projects initiated by the state and the largest state-owned companies in the country, and insufficient coverage of projects initiated by enterprises whose activities are more concentrated in the Far Eastern Federal District.

It should be noted that the development of socio-economic development has a direct connection with the quality of development institutions that implement certain tasks and directions of economic policy, which is also emphasized in foreign studies on regional development problems. For example, K. Corradini, using econometric modeling methods, notes that the quality of institutions, which include development institutions, especially those operating in poorly developed regions, has a significant impact on the dynamics of socio-economic development ^[17]. These conclusions are difficult to dispute, while it should be noted that this study confirms the need to improve the effectiveness of development institutions, on whose activities the implementation of certain areas of state economic policy depends. 

In all the above-mentioned studies, the high relevance of the implementation of the socio-economic development management model of the Far Eastern Federal District is noted, which will ensure the advanced development of the region and the solution of key structural and social problems, which include the outflow of population from the region, structural imbalances and distortions in the region's economy, reflecting the need to increase innovative potential and improve the quality of social, transport and industrial infrastructure. At the same time, taking into account previous works devoted to the problems of regional development, this study focuses in more detail on certain recommendations for reforming the existing strategic planning system and improving the effectiveness of development institutions. 

The problems of the region's development reflect the need to review the existing system of strategic planning of the economy as a whole and build a management system for development institutions linked to the priorities of economic security and acting as one of the tools to ensure it. The system of strategic planning of the economy, the programming of which is formed through the use of forecasting methods, leads to a disproportionality of socio-economic development and to a decrease in the relevance or possibility of achieving set development priorities due to the variability of the external environment. 

In this regard, the revision of the system of strategic planning of the economy should be based on the formation of a dynamic model of intersectoral balance based on the method of successive approximations in the preparation of balances of costs and output of the final product to meet the needs of the national economy and achieve the desired development results. At the same time, given the enormous amounts of data and the number of mathematical operations carried out to calculate planned balances, it is also necessary to introduce artificial intelligence technologies that ensure the coordination of needs and coordination of economic agents in order to achieve the priorities of socio-economic development.

In the context of the second industrial revolution, which is essentially a cybernetic revolution in the economy^[15], the role of development institutions in ensuring the economic security of the state becomes more important if a management system is formed. Along with the introduction of a new system of strategic planning of the economy, there should be a significant reform of the current management system of development institutions, which began back in 2021. At the same time, the reform of the system of development institutions should cover not only the elimination of ineffective development institutions or their transfer to the management of VEB.The Russian Federation, but also issues such as the delineation of "zones" of responsibility and functions of institutions, requirements for strategic planning documents of development institutions that correspond to the goals and objectives of the development of individual industries and the national economy as a whole, as well as requirements for the creation and implementation of information infrastructure that allows for the transition to a cybernetic model of strategic economic planning.

 In these conditions, development institutions can become "agents" of the Government of the Russian Federation and be a full-fledged link between the state and business. The key tasks of development institutions within the framework of the implementation of the new strategic planning system will be to determine the needs of economic agents for state support measures, calculate the necessary costs and the results obtained from providing financial and non-financial support measures to economic agents. At the same time, ensuring the fulfillment of the above tasks is possible subject to the introduction of new and development of existing state information systems (including the GIS "Electronic Budget"), information systems of development institutions, as well as ensuring interaction between them, increasing the coverage of digitalization of state support measures, improving the quality and coverage of data available to the state used to assess the state economic security and when planning the development of the national economy. 

Alternative strategic planning system and the role of development institutions in it

It is worth noting that the above-mentioned problems of the current system of development institutions increase both the relevance of developing tools for evaluating development institutions, including criteria for the effectiveness of their activities for decision-making regarding their further functioning, and the need to improve the existing model of strategic economic planning.

The existing model of planning for the development of socio-economic development and ensuring economic security is formed on the basis of economic policy instruments applied within the framework of a market economy, while in order to solve the existing problem of disproportionate socio-economic development in the country, which poses a threat to national security, it is necessary to introduce centralized planning mechanisms that ensure the achievement of the set results the account of the specified resources, the formation of which is possible due to the current level of development of digital technologies and artificial intelligence and the available theoretical and methodological base in the face of economic cybernetics.  

The application of economic cybernetics in the strategic planning of the economy is possible through the introduction of a dynamic model of intersectoral and intersectoral balance, the basis of which, among other things, is a single criterion of optimality (maximizing the growth of public utility) in the distribution and expenditure of economic resources for the production of products and services between end consumers (state, population, enterprises, non-profit organizations). The use of a dynamic model of intersectoral – intersectoral balance is feasible in determining the exact proportions of supply and demand for financial and non-financial support measures provided by development institutions through the method of successive approximations, taking into account calculations of resource capabilities necessary to achieve the indicators established in strategic planning documents aimed at implementing the priorities of economic security of the state.

Discussion of the results of the study

 One of the priorities of ensuring the economic security of the Russian Federation is to ensure the advanced development of the Far East, in connection with which state programs are approved, the implementation of which is aimed at implementing this priority, and development institutions are established, whose activities should be related to the implementation of certain tasks of economic policy. Conceptually, the activities of development institutions should be aimed at overcoming structural and other imbalances in socio-economic development and the national economy.

The analysis of the influence of the Federal Development Institute of KRDV JSC, conducted using a multifactorial linear regression model, as well as the results of individual studies on regional development problems, reflect the need to strengthen the relationship between the activities of development institutions and strengthen their positive impact on the dynamics of socio-economic development of regions. At the same time, the analysis of research on the problems of regional development of the Far Eastern Federal District reflects the need to develop a strategic planning system and clarify the role of development institutions in economic policy in order to increase the effectiveness of their activities. 

It is worth noting that the current level of development of digital technologies, the experience of implementing information systems in public administration and the implementation of state support measures make it possible to fully implement the ideas of introducing economic cybernetics into the strategic planning system for the socio-economic development of the state in order to overcome one of the key threats to economic security, the disproportionality of the development of the national economy, its branches and regions. Within the framework of this model, the role of development institutions linking the state with end consumers is also significantly increasing. 

 Further research directions

The strengthening of external and internal threats to the economic security of the state stimulate both the need to create new and develop existing mechanisms, tools and measures of economic policy, as well as the search for possible alternative models of socio-economic development that meet the national interests of the state and ensure the implementation of the goals and objectives of socio-economic development of the state. In this regard, it is advisable to focus further research on the problem under consideration not only on the analysis and assessment of factors influencing economic growth, but also on the search for mechanisms to ensure the solution of fundamental problems of socio-economic development caused by the peculiarities of a particular model of the organization of economic life of society.