Ukraine – NATO: relations and prospects of membership

Ryzhov Valerii Borisovich PhD in Law Associate professor, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Journal "Education and Law", Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Member of the Union of Journalists of Russia 111397, Russia, g. Moscow, pr-kt Zelenyi, 22, of. 305 valeriy_ryzhov@mail.ru Other publications by this author

The actualization of the research topic is due to the steps taken aimed at further expansion of the NATO bloc to the East, which are considered by the political and military leadership of Russia as a direct threat to national security for our state.  At the same time, it is important to note that in the founding document of NATO ^[1], as is known, there are no provisions obliging this international organization to deny membership to states, for example, the former republics of the USSR.  De jure, the doors of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are open to States wishing to join this Alliance, in accordance with NATO requirements and standards.

Russian foreign policy doctrine currently considers Ukraine as a de facto springboard of the "collective West" represented by the United States, NATO member states and the EU in the geopolitical confrontation with Russia. As noted, the main goal is to minimize Russia's influence in the region and in the global political arena ^{[7, p. 5]}. In the text of the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation dated July 2, 2021, approved by By Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 400 dated 2.07.2021, the main reason for the increase in military threats to the state is called "the buildup of the military infrastructure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization near the Russian borders, the intensification of intelligence activities, the development of the use of large military formations and nuclear weapons against the Russian Federation." On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin made an Appeal, in which which announced the holding of a "special military operation" (hereinafter referred to as SVO) with the aim of "demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine" ^[15]. The Russian authorities have repeatedly voiced the thesis that the need to implement such actions is a necessary measure against the background of the CBO. And such a military policy of Russia is aimed, among other things, at preventing Ukraine from joining NATO.

In such realities, Ukraine's current relations with NATO require scientific analysis. And the prospects for Ukraine's entry into the military-political bloc.

Ukraine – NATO: the history of relations

As V.N. Babenko notes, the collapse of the USSR pushed Ukraine to the need to find its place in the European security system ^{[6, p. 102]}. In the early years of independence, Ukraine took a cautious approach to NATO, as it sought to maintain good relations with both Russia and the West. However, in 1994, Ukraine became the first former Soviet republic to join the NATO Partnership for Peace program, which was developed to promote military cooperation and interoperability between Alliance members and non-NATO states ^{[4; 12, p. 64]}.

Under President Leonid Kuchma, the course towards NATO membership was first fixed by law /The Law of Ukraine, dated 06/19/2003, "On the basis of the national security of Ukraine". No. 964-IV (expired) /, and subsequently removed from the doctrinal documents at the end of June 2004. Researchers attribute this to the fact that the NATO summit in Istanbul did not meet Kiev's expectations about expanding cooperation after consolidating the strategic course for membership in the alliance in doctrinal documents ^{[23, p. 42]}. It is impossible not to take into account the factor of public opinion for that period of time. 

In the mid-2000s, Ukraine's relations with NATO became a key issue of the country's domestic policy. In 2004, Ukraine experienced the Orange Revolution, a series of protests and political upheavals that eventually led to the election of V.A. Yushchenko as head of state. Yushchenko was an active supporter of Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership and sought to deepen Ukraine's integration with the West. One example of this is the fact that at the Bucharest NATO Summit in 2008, an important decision was made that Ukraine would become a member of the alliance in the future ^[5]. However, Yushchenko's efforts in the field of Euro-Atlantic integration encountered resistance from Russia, which viewed NATO expansion as a threat to its own security. In addition, many Ukrainians remained skeptical about NATO membership, as they feared that it would provoke Russia and could lead to a military conflict. Public opinion polls showed a low demand among the citizens of Ukraine for the idea of membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ^{[25, p. 392]}.

Another change of course took place already under the presidency of V.F. Yanukovych – paragraphs introduced under V.A. Yushchenko, fixing the country's course towards full membership in NATO, were again excluded from official documents.  In fact, Viktor Yanukovych's position on NATO was not an alternative, but a deterrent, as opposed to forcing this issue by his predecessors. It is also necessary to note the important factor that due to the coming to power of first L.D. Kuchma, and then V.F. Yanukovych, the country returned to the authoritarian vector of development ^{[18, p. 47]}.

After the change of government in 2014, the new leadership of Ukraine actively used the narrative of the country's imminent accession to NATO ^{[16, p. 45]}.  And at the moment, this official course is clearly visible in the regulatory framework of the Ukrainian state / Constitution of Ukraine, view 06/28/1996, p. No. 254k / 96-BP; Law of Ukraine "On National Security of Ukraine", view 06/21/2018, p. No. 2469-VIII; Strategy of National Security of Ukraine, zatv. By Decree of the President of Ukraine dated 09/14/2020 p. No. 392/2020 /.

With the outbreak of hostilities in the East of the country and the entry of Crimea into the Russian Federation, the Government of P.A. Poroshenko has repeatedly appealed to the leadership of the bloc to accelerate the integration process and intensify military cooperation against the background of the ongoing internal armed confrontation in part of Ukraine. Since 2014 Ukraine has deepened its cooperation with NATO through measures such as a Comprehensive Assistance Package and a Joint Command for Assistance and Assistance. In addition, NATO provided Ukraine with non-lethal military equipment and training, as well as political and diplomatic support ^{[21, p. 65]}.  All these years, Ukraine has taken steps to bring its military, political and economic systems more in line with NATO standards, including participation in the Membership Action Plan and intensification of its dialogue with the Alliance ^{[13, p. 240]}. One of the examples of strengthening bilateral cooperation between Ukraine and NATO was the provision of June 12, 2020. The North Atlantic Council granted Ukraine the status of an Enhanced Opportunities Partner (EOP ^[24]. 

On September 30, 2022, President of Ukraine V.A. Zelensky, against the background of military operations between Russia and Ukraine, signed an application on behalf of his state to join NATO in an accelerated mode ^[10].  Ukraine's interaction with the North Atlantic Alliance has noticeably intensified and has begun to include such forms as the supply of weapons and equipment, the so-called "comprehensive package of assistance to Ukraine", the work of NATO advisers, advanced training of military personnel, etc. In addition, in May 2023, the Ukrainian state officially became a member of the Joint Center of Excellence for Cyber Defense of the Alliance (NATO CCDCOE) ^[22].

However, Ukraine's path to NATO membership remains uncertain as it faces challenges such as political instability. Undoubtedly, the presence of territories not controlled by Kiev in the Ukrainian state plays a significant role ^{[17, p. 50]}. And more importantly, the ongoing armed conflict with the Russian Federation.

Interests of the parties

Do not forget that the NATO bloc was created as a geopolitical counterweight to the influence of the USSR on the world political arena. With the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Federation, the legal successor of the Soviet Union, became the object of opposition. The leaders of the North Atlantic Alliance member states have repeatedly stated the need to counter Russia's increasing influence in the post-Soviet and Eurasian space. The key area of NATO's activity within the framework of this concept is the expansion of the bloc to the East with the admission of new member countries and the deepening of military cooperation with non-member countries ^{[11, p. 219]}. Ukraine occupies a strategic position between NATO and Russia, which largely determines the bloc's interest in cooperation with Ukraine and creates prospects for Ukraine's accession to NATO. Nevertheless, the relationship between Ukraine and NATO should be pragmatic and verified – in the context of Russia's growing position in the region and on the world stage as a whole, it becomes impossible for the bloc to ignore its interests. Therefore, it seems necessary to support Ukraine in its "orbit", while not taking really significant steps to co-opt it and not crossing the Kremlin's "red lines" ^{[9, p. 28]}.

The Ukrainian leadership is satisfied with the role of the anti-Russian bridgehead of the collective West in Eastern Europe. The concept of "Ukraine is not Russia", consistently promoted by the elites since the Ukrainian state gained independence, includes, among other things, a narrative about the "imperialism" of Russia and the representation of the Russian Federation as a constant threat to the national sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. That is why, despite the formal consolidation of the status of non-alignment in strategic documents, back in the 1990s, the Ukrainian leadership initiated the signing of the Charter on a Special Partnership between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Ukraine ^[3]. And Ukraine has been actively increasing cooperation with the NATO bloc over the years.

An additional argument in favor of NATO membership appeared on the Ukrainian side after the events of 2013-2014. The Ukrainian leadership considers the long-term military confrontation in the Donbas not as an armed conflict of a non-international nature, but as an open confrontation with Russia, seeking support from the West. Ukraine's cooperation with NATO could strengthen its security by giving it access to NATO's collective defense capabilities and expertise. This, in turn, could help the Ukrainian authorities win a decisive victory in the conflict in the East of the country. Moreover, Ukraine's integration into NATO could help strengthen its position in the international community by giving it greater political and military influence. Joining NATO could also provide Ukraine with broader access to international organizations and institutions.

NATO requirements and Standards

The process of joining NATO is regulated by a number of international legal acts, including:

1. The North Atlantic Treaty is the founding document of NATO, which sets out the principles and objectives of the Alliance ^[1].

2. The Membership Action Plan is a program designed to help countries prepare for NATO membership by outlining a number of political, economic and military reforms that they must implement ^[2].

3. The Partnership for Peace Program is a program designed to promote cooperation between NATO and non–NATO countries on defense and security issues ^[4].

In order to become a member of NATO, a country must meet certain requirements and criteria. Some of the key requirements include:

·        Commitment to democratic values and institutions, including the rule of law, human rights and good governance.

·        Stable political and economic situation.

· A strong army and the ability to contribute to NATO missions and operations.

·        Willingness to cooperate with NATO and other member states on defense and security issues.

There are also some restrictions on NATO membership, including:

· A country cannot be a member of either NATO or another military alliance.

·        A country cannot have territorial disputes with other NATO members.

· The country must be able to meet the financial and resource obligations associated with membership.

The process of joining NATO is a multi–step procedure that requires the state to meet a number of political, military and economic criteria. Steps to join include expressing interest, obtaining a membership action plan, intensifying dialogue, receiving an invitation from NATO, drafting an accession protocol and ratifying it. The first step for a potential candidate State interested in joining NATO is to express its interest in the Alliance. This is usually done through an official letter or statement from the Government of the country. Once a country has expressed its interest, it may be invited to participate in the Membership Action Plan (hereinafter referred to as the MAP). This is the first official step towards NATO membership. He suggests that the country presents a detailed plan outlining its strategy for meeting the criteria for membership in the Alliance and implementing the necessary reforms in areas such as military capabilities, governance and the rule of law ^{[14, p. 189]}.

After the country has made progress on the MAP, it may be invited to participate in an enhanced dialogue with NATO. This involves a more in-depth study of the country's readiness for membership and may include visits by NATO officials to the country. This is a stage where NATO and the country concerned engage in regular consultations and exchanges of views to discuss progress in meeting the membership criteria. If NATO members agree that a country is ready for membership, they can send that country an invitation to join the Alliance. The invitation is usually issued at the NATO summit, and then the country must ratify the NATO treaty and complete all remaining reforms. As soon as the country ratifies the NATO treaty and completes all necessary reforms, it must sign the Protocol on Joining NATO. This document sets out the terms of the country's membership. Finally, the Protocol of Accession must be ratified by all NATO members before a new member can officially join the alliance. This usually includes a vote in the Parliament of each member country.

It is worth noting that the process of joining NATO may take several years or even decades, and the specific steps may vary depending on the individual circumstances of the country. In the case of Ukraine, the country has already completed the first two stages of the process by participating in the Membership Action Plan and intensifying its dialogue with NATO. However, there are still significant obstacles to its membership, in particular the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine and concerns about the country's ability to meet NATO military and governance standards.

Prospects for Ukraine's accession to NATO

           The Ukrainian political leadership is aware of the fact that there are a number of unresolved issues in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in particular, lack of efficiency, lack of a clear distribution of responsibilities, insufficient elaboration of the regulatory framework /Strategic Defense Bulletin of Ukraine, approved by Decree of the President of Ukraine on 09/17/2021 p. No. 473/2021 /. Representatives of the expert community record that in recent years comprehensive reforms have been carried out in the field of security and defense planning aimed at adapting to the requirements of the Euro-Atlantic alliance, but nevertheless, the state of the armed forces of Ukraine is still far from the standards of the bloc ^{[27, p. 46]}.

The main obstacle for Ukraine on the way to NATO membership is the need for consensus among member states on this issue. At the moment, a number of NATO member states have expressed their disagreement to accept Ukraine into the Alliance ^{[26, p. 95]}. Since Ukraine's entry, according to the governments of these countries, will certainly lead to an armed conflict with Russia. Thus, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, R. Fico, emphasizes: "Slovakia needs a neutral Ukraine. Slovakia's interests will be at risk if Ukraine becomes a NATO member state" ^[20]. Hungary has similar objections ^[8]. Against the background of Finland's much more rapid accession to NATO (Finland's accession to NATO took place on April 4, 2023), the prospects for Ukraine with more than 20 years of history of "promotion" to such membership look insignificant.

Whether Ukraine meets the requirements for NATO membership or not is a matter of debate. Although the country has made some progress in areas such as defense reform and anti-corruption efforts, there are still concerns about its ability to meet the standards of the North Atlantic Bloc in areas such as military capabilities, governance and the rule of law. The ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine is also a serious obstacle to the country's membership, as it has undermined its military and political systems and called into question its ability to maintain security and stability. Some NATO members suggested that resolving the conflict would be a precondition for Ukraine's membership, while others argued that membership itself could help achieve a peaceful settlement. Anyway, NATO countries are trying to confirm their informal commitments towards Ukraine in order to maintain the loyalty of the latter. Refusal to cooperate with the political elite of Ukraine is unprofitable for the West, as it will significantly reduce the levers of restraining the influence of the Russian Federation in Eastern Europe. However, NATO countries "try to avoid actions that could put them on the verge of a direct collision with Russia" ^{[19, p. 68]}. There is still no consensus among NATO member states on Ukraine. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of the alliance members oppose the accelerated format of Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance against the background of the ongoing war. And in this case, we are talking about the impossibility of Ukraine's entry into the next stages of the Euro-Atlantic integration process.

To sum up, Ukraine's membership in NATO seems impossible in the short and medium term for a number of reasons. Firstly, Ukraine's membership runs counter to the security interests of the bloc's member states against the background of the ongoing conflict in the East of the country and the Russian Federation's conduct of its own. Secondly, the unresolved territorial disputes with Russia today.  Thirdly, there are principled opponents of accepting Ukraine among the NATO member states. Fourth, the results of reforms in Ukraine in order to achieve key indicators within the framework of the MAP have not yet reached a sufficient level of progress.