Environmental migration: a new challenge for the global community

Ikryam Asiya Student, Institute of Humanities, Higher School of International Relations, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University 195220, Russia, Saint Petersburg, Grazhdansky Prospekt, 28a ikryamushka@mail.ru

Yur Arseniy Sergeevich Student, Institute of Humanities, Higher School of International Relations, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University 195220, Russia, Saint Petersburg, Grazhdansky Prospekt, 28a arsenijur8@gmail.com

Introduction

We live in an era of unprecedented mobility. According to the report of the International Organization for Migration for 2022 ^[1], at the beginning of the decade there were about 281 million international migrants in the world, which is 3.6% of the total world population. It is not surprising that migration policy is currently an integral part of common state and global problems, moreover, it affects all spheres of society. Migration for forced reasons is one of the most vulnerable for the country's economy, since it requires special responsibility of the government to the population and a significant share of the state budget. Recently, Governments of various countries have begun to single out migration as a result of the sharp deterioration of the environmental situation, as well as environmental disasters, in the list of causes leading to forced migration. For this reason, the term "ecological migration" is increasingly found in domestic and foreign literature, but understanding the processes and type of migration is complicated by the lack of global research. This phenomenon is of scientific interest, since the environment has always had an impact on the movement of people who sought to leave their homes due to deteriorating climatic conditions in their regions of residence ^[2]. In the accumulated international legal framework, this category of migrants is not regulated as a separate one, and the term "environmental migrant" has not yet received an official unified definition ^[3]. It is also noted that there is currently a discussion related to the use of the terms "ecological migrant" or "ecological refugee". As noted, the terms "migrant" and "refugee" are similar in terms such as "threat to life and health", as well as "reasonable fears of becoming a victim of persecution" ^[4]. However, while refugees are required to justify the existence of the very real "threat to life and health", in the case of environmental migrants, the criteria remain uncertain. Moreover, refugees are invariably identified as foreigners, while environmental migrants can also move within the country. This distinction highlights the complexity inherent in the legal recognition and provision of assistance to persons affected by adverse environmental conditions. It is also worth noting that during the analysis of official UN sources, a clear distinction was noted between the concepts of "refugee" and "migrant" ^[5]. Refugees are reportedly people who have been forced to leave their country due to threats to their lives and health, which makes their deportation impossible. The Convention on the Status of Refugees ^[6] clearly defines the criteria for obtaining refugee status, explicitly excluding environmental factors. Despite the fact that there is no officially accepted and fixed definition of the concept of "migrant", it is indicated that migrants are persons who voluntarily move from their habitual place of residence in search of a better life without endangering their lives. However, in the case of displacement of people for environmental reasons, it becomes much more difficult to determine their status.

The topic is given additional relevance by modern ecological and demographic processes: climate change, the threat of environmental disasters and the growing number of people forced to leave their homes due to a number of environmental problems. However, the number and characteristics of this category of migrants are not accurately estimated ^[7], and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees notes the absence of definitive criteria for determining environmental migrants ^[8], which creates significant difficulties for the international community, recipient countries, as well as for those who are forced to leave their homes.

In the Russian literature, interest in the concept of ecological migration has increased relatively recently. Among a number of works, it is worth highlighting the study of Al Ghanimi D. B. "The problem of independent legal regulation of environmental migration in modern international law" ^[9], which notes that the theoretical basis of the concept of "environmental migration" has not yet been formed in science, although the activity of various international organizations has outlined a trend towards the development of this term. It is also worth highlighting the study by V. I. Yevtushenko "Ecological catastrophes and ecological migration: concept, interrelation, problems of solution" ^[10]. The work is interesting primarily because it was one of the first on the stated topic and reflects the impact of major man-made disasters on population migration. The work of Klokova A. Y. "Ecological migration as an integral part of ensuring environmental safety" deserves attention ^[11]. The article is useful for analyzing further developments and consequences of environmental migration in the world, since the problem of environmental migration is a key global problem today.

Thus, in the last decade, attention to the problem of environmental migration has been increasing, which underlines the relevance of conducting research and a comprehensive analysis of this phenomenon. So, in this article, the purpose of the study is to identify trends in the development of environmental migration, its impact on the future of mankind and its significance for the entire world community. Due to the growing number of environmental migrants and the lack of unified mechanisms to regulate such migration, the hypothesis of the study is the need to form a unified theoretical framework for the concept of "environmental migration". As for the research methods used to help achieve this goal, it is worth noting that the work mainly used methods of conceptual analysis in determining the basic theoretical content of the concept of "environmental migration", institutional analysis, which was used during the study of the main institutions regulating the processes of environmental migration, the method of historical analysis in the study of the historical prerequisites of the processes under study as well as elements of a scenario approach in predicting environmental migration processes in the future. The objectives of the work are formulated as follows: to trace the evolution of the concept and the main trends of environmental migration, to characterize the impact of environmental problems on migration and its likely consequences. To achieve these objectives, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of relevant data and draw the necessary conclusions for further research.

The history of the concept and the main trends of environmental migration

For the first time, the concept of "ecological migrant" was proposed in the work "The Road to Survival" (1948) by the American ecologist W. Vogt to describe people displaced as a result of the harmful effects of human activities on the environment ^[12]. Vogt argued that it is necessary to control the migration of the population to prevent environmental degradation. Subsequently, in 1976, environmental analyst L. Brown made this term public ^[13]. It was only in 1985 that the United Nations recognized the problem of environmental migrants ^[14], thereby giving rise to discussions both in the scientific field and in politics. In turn, in the Report of the UN Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 ^[15], one can find the thesis that it is necessary to conduct a study on the impact of environmental factors, along with socio-economic ones, on migration processes, and it is also necessary to develop measures to address issues of various types of migration related to environmental degradation. For the first time, the discussion of environmental migration at the international level was held in October 2008 at a conference in Germany ^[16]. At the meeting, representatives of the business community defined "external environmental labor migrants" as people who leave their homes and migrate both within and beyond national borders due to environmental degradation or natural disasters "in pursuit of professional prospects."

Currently, the Global Commission on International Migration proposes the following definition: environmental migrants are "people who were forced to relocate as a result of environmental disasters" ^[17]. The president of the Center for Support of Environmental Migrants of Uzbekistan, Bulesheva D. D., offers his own formulation of the term: "environmental migrants are people forced to relocate due to threats to life and health outside their country due to environmental disasters, catastrophes and man—made causes." ^[18]. The definition used today by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has no international legal basis and is only descriptive. The IOM defines environmental migration as "the movement of a person or groups of persons who, mainly for reasons of sudden or progressive environmental change due to climate change, are forced to leave their usual place of residence or decide to do so, temporarily or permanently, within a State or across an international border" (IOM, 2019) ^[19]. That is, when faced with a threat to life and health, people are forced to change their place of residence. This, in turn, leads to serious consequences in the social and economic spheres. Nevertheless, even around this definition there are disputes. As noted in a 2011 study for the European Parliament, persons who migrate due to deteriorating living conditions caused by environmental and climate changes should not be classified as environmental migrants if there are alternative ways of survival besides resettlement ^[20].

Environmental problems have stimulated migration since the early human migrations to Eurasia. Of course, these processes are complex and diverse, and it is worth recognizing that environmental degradation on a historical scale has never been a key cause of population displacement, unlike poverty, hunger and lack of opportunities. However, at present, environmental degradation and increased mobility of the population are merging, generating dynamics unprecedented in the past ^[21]. Modern global problems, especially population growth, lead to the fact that an increasing number of people live in unfavorable and climatically vulnerable areas ^[22].

It is worth noting that the number of environmental migrants is steadily growing. If we follow the statistics published by the International Organization for Migration, we can see that in 2017 ^[23] the number of such migrants reached 18.2 million people, in 2021 ^[24] various environmental disasters led to the migration of 30.7 million people, and in the following year ^[25] natural disasters accounted for about 53% of the total An estimated 60.9 million new migrants, which is the highest annual rate in a decade and exceeds the annual average by 41%. Moreover, the American journal The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) published a study ^[26], which predicts that by 2070 from 1 to 3 billion people will face potentially adverse climatic conditions that differ sharply from today's environmental standards. In this regard, it is assumed that the number of environmental migrants will grow at a catastrophic rate every year.

This trend is not unique to international migration. Environmental migration is more noticeable primarily within the country, despite the common resources regardless of the region. Interestingly, internal environmental migration, as well as international migration, has a serious impact on the country's economy. This is primarily due to the increased burden on the infrastructure of the host regions, which must adapt to the influx of population.

Ongoing climate change, population growth, and the increasing use of resources will eventually strengthen the trend towards increased migration. This scenario is especially likely in conditions when governments of different countries are unable to adequately respond to growing threats and strengthen the adaptation of the world population to such changes. Currently, various studies are dominated by the forecast that by 2050 environmental factors may lead to the displacement of 200 million people ^[27]. This means that about one in 45 people may migrate due to deteriorating climatic conditions. Moreover, entire regions can turn into "ghosts". This is the name of those areas that, due to an increase in the number of migrants, will be uninhabited. Thus, taking measures to address this problem may become the main issue on the agenda of the next decades.

The impact of environmental problems on migration and its likely consequences

Of course, humanity needs to understand more deeply the complex factors leading to environmental migration. According to the UN, it is necessary to perceive this problem as one of the environmental ones ^[28]. The United Nations also identifies six main causes of environmental migration ^[29]: 1) land degradation, desertification and drought; 2) natural disasters and extreme weather events; 3) sea level rise and floods; 4) industrial accidents and environmental pollution by anthropogenic emissions; 5) urbanization and the construction of infrastructure (dams, roads, etc.); 6) conflicts related to the struggle for natural resources. In light of the ongoing processes, environmental migration will continue to expand in the future. It is predicted that many regions of the world will be exposed to an increased risk to public health and safety ^[30], which, in our opinion, will lead to the need for migration.

It is noted that natural disasters are recognized as the main driving forces of migration worldwide. According to various estimates, 44% of the world's population lives in the vicinity of reservoirs, thus, an increase in water levels even by a few centimeters will lead to flooding of numerous island states of the Asia-Pacific region ^[31]. W. L. Swing, director of the International Organization for Migration from 2008 to 2018, stated about the critical situation in which 75 million people are due to the danger of flooding of their regions of residence ^[32]. He stressed that as a result, the population of these areas will face forced migration for environmental reasons. Around the world, the number of people leaving their homes for climatic reasons, be it soil degradation, desertification or natural disasters, is steadily increasing. Every year, about 5-7 million hectares of land per year are subjected to desertification processes. If this trajectory continues, United Nations projections suggest that by the end of this millennium, the Earth could lose up to a third of the arable land that was available in the 1970s.

It is also worth mentioning that the number of displacements due to natural disasters amounted to 30.7 million people in the world in 2020, which is 6.5 million more than in 2019 ^[33].   Most of this migration was associated with extreme weather events such as floods, storms and hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Such extreme conditions provoked over a third of internal migration, with 5 countries becoming leaders: the USA, China, India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. The total number of migrants from only five countries amounted to 19.5 million people. By 2050, the number of migrants who have moved due to climate change will grow to 143 million people and these will be only three regions of the planet – South Asia, Tropical Africa and Latin America ^[34].  

Today, migration trends are undergoing changes, as the global community is daily confronted with the consequences of environmental disasters of various scales. The frequency, intensity and destructive power of sudden natural events such as floods, droughts and severe weather conditions are increasing, leading to the displacement of people. These incidents are compounded by the ongoing processes of climate change and environmental degradation, which directly or indirectly affect migration. Moreover, geophysical phenomena not directly related to climate change, such as seismic and volcanic activity, along with threats caused by human activities, for example, industrial pollution, fires and toxic spills, also play a role in migration dynamics. These factors together have an adverse impact on the well-being, economic stability, habitat, physical and psychological health of the population.

In turn, the phenomenon of ecological migration itself has a significant impact on society, the economy and the environment. In the social sphere, environmental migration leads to social upheaval ^[35], not only in the places that are being abandoned, but also in the host territories. This, in turn, can lead to increased tension, social isolation, loss of cultural identity and other negative consequences.

Environmental migration also has a serious impact on the economies of States. It leads to unemployment in areas suffering from population outflow, and in the receiving territories there is an urgent need for additional investments in infrastructure development, housing, education and health care in new places of residence of migrants. It was also noted that man-made disasters require the implementation of expensive programs to eliminate the consequences ^[36], for example, $235 billion was spent on eliminating problems after the Chernobyl accident in the period from 1985 to 2021 ^[37]. However, it should be noted that environmental migration can also have the opposite effect and have a stimulating effect on the economy, contribute to the development of industries in some regions.

From an environmental point of view, migration can have both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, in the source regions of migration, the ongoing mobility can lead to a reduction in the environmental burden. On the other hand, a large flow of migrants to host countries creates additional pressures on ecologically sustainable territories, which can lead to a deterioration of the environmental situation.

It should be noted that environmental migration, as part of global environmental problems, certainly expands the scope of planning for the development of action plans and international cooperation in the field of sustainable development. It is important to develop and implement adaptation and migration policy programs that will allow people to move to safe and environmentally sustainable places, reduce environmental impact and ensure the sustainable development of new territories.

Conclusions

Thus, the tasks set in this study have been completed. The relevance of the work is justified, since environmental migration as a natural process has not been sufficiently studied, and individual concepts have not been formalized at the international level. The author's hypothesis has been confirmed, since in connection with the growing migration due to climate shocks, the need to compile a unified theoretical framework for further joint work to combat not only the causes of environmental migration, but also its consequences is growing. This work can be used for further research in the framework of studying the phenomenon of environmental migration, and its results may be of interest to scientists in the field of political science, political sociology, ecology, world politics and international relations, as well as students of these specialties, in practice, the results of the work can be used by specialists in the field of public administration and employees of foreign economic and foreign policy departments.

Based on the results of the work done, it can be concluded that environmental migration is a serious challenge for the modern world, requiring an integrated approach and specific measures to manage this process. Trends in the development of environmental migration indicate the need to develop sustainable migration management strategies and adapt to the changing situation in the world.

At the same time, environmental migration opens up opportunities for the intensification of measures and programs in the field of sustainable development, since the phenomenon itself requires theoretical and managerial rethinking, management and/or adaptation to its consequences. It is important to continue to study this phenomenon, develop international agreements and programs aimed at improving the situation of environmental migrants and solving the problem at the global level. The study and understanding of environmental migration should become a priority for government agencies, international organizations, research centers and public organizations responsible for issues of sustainable development, environmental protection, and demographic management.