Scenario planning in national security management: methodological foundations

Shul'ts Vladimir Leopol'dovich Doctor of Philosophy Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor, Department of Social Engineering, Moscow State University. 119991, Russia, Moscow, Leninskie Gory str., 1 cona01@yandex.ru Other publications by this author     Chernov Igor' Viktorovich PhD in Technical Science Head of the Laboratory, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences 117997, Russia, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya str., 65 ichernov@gmail.com Other publications by this author     Kul'ba Vladimir Vasil'evich Doctor of Technical Science Chief Researcher, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences 117997, Russia, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya str., 65 kulba@ipu.ru Other publications by this author

Shelkov Aleksei Borisovich PhD in Technical Science Leading Scientific Associate, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences 117997, Russia, Moscow region, Moscow, ul. Trade Union, 65, office 407 abshelkov@gmail.com Other publications by this author

Introduction

Currently, the Russian Federation is facing a whole complex of critical challenges and external threats not only to sovereignty, but also to the very existence of our country, due to the escalation of the military-political, economic and informational confrontation between Russia and Western countries in an open form, characterized by a significantly higher level of hostility and uncompromising than the Cold War period of the second half of the twentieth century..

The current foreign policy situation, as well as unprecedented harsh and large-scale sanctions pressure against Russia have led to the emergence and continuous growth of fundamentally new and extremely dangerous strategic threats to the national security of the Russian Federation. As a result, in the realities of the present time, Russia faces a number of fundamentally new and critically important problems, as well as urgent tasks of ensuring national security, including both operational ones aimed at stabilizing situations negatively developing under the influence of external threats, and aimed at the long-term development of society and the state in the emerging new world order.

The multifactorial and multi–purpose nature of these threats, the point-based (and in a number of directions - secretive) and the choice of methods and mechanisms of military, political and economic pressure on the Russian Federation, focused on the existing "windows" of vulnerability of the socio-economic system of our country, dictate the urgent need to improve the efficiency of state planning and management in the field of ensuring national security of Russia. 

1. National security as an object of management. 

The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation (approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 400 dated 02.07.2021) defines the concept of national security as "the state of protection of the national interests of the Russian Federation from external and internal threats, in which the realization of constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens, decent quality and standard of living, civil peace and harmony in the country, protection of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation, its independence and state integrity, socio-economic development of the country".

From the point of view of organizational management, the sphere of national security of the state is a complex distributed multilevel multistructural system, including many different interrelated elements ^[1-13]. At the same time, it is possible to distinguish the external and internal contours of national security (Fig. 1).

Fig.1. The national security system

The first reflects the external (military-political, foreign economic, diplomatic, etc.) component of the complex of problems of ensuring national security and is closely related to the level of international security (the state and trends in the development of international relations). Within the framework of this contour, in accordance with the Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation (approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 229 dated 03/31/2023), the main tasks of ensuring national security at the present stage are: countering external threats and protecting the national interests of our country, forming a just world order, strategic deterrence of Russia's geopolitical opponents, ensuring strategic stability, countering anti-Russian activities of foreign states, the formation of good-neighborly relations with neighboring states, etc.

The internal contour accordingly reflects the problems of countering internal threats to the sustainable and progressive development of society and the state (socio-economic, industrial and technological, scientific and technical, etc.).

Both the external and internal contours, on the one hand, differ significantly in the nature, content and specifics of the strategic and tactical tasks being solved to ensure national security, on the other hand, they have significant functional connectivity and interdependence in a number of areas, which requires an integrated approach to solving the problems under consideration, especially over a long time horizon.

Ensuring the national security of the state is one of the most difficult problems of the theory and methodology of organizational management and a number of related scientific disciplines. The main difficulty lies in the fact that national security, both as a subject area and as an object of management, is a multifunctional distributed multiparametric weakly structured, and, as a result, weakly formalized (with the exception of extremely rare particular tasks) system characterized by:

1. a high level of dependence on the nature, scale and intensity of external negative influence, which is very significant due to the antagonism of the targets, aggressiveness and multidirection of the actions taken by the subjects, elements and subsystems that make up the external environment;
2. territorial distribution of a significant number of security facilities of various types;
3. a large number and complexity of multidirectional functional, material, financial, informational, etc. relationships and interdependencies between them;
4. the blurring of the boundaries of mutual influence and interaction of factors affecting security objects (or their totality);
5. a wide range of functional tasks of ensuring national security, meaningfully differentiated by a number of independent directions to varying degrees within the framework of the subject area under consideration;
6. an extremely wide variety of heterogeneous qualitative and quantitative indicators and parameters reflecting the level of national security provided in various areas;
7. high level of uncertainty and risk;
8. the need for significant expenditure of resources and time to solve the functional tasks of national security management.

The central function of the national security management process is planning, which determines the ways to achieve the set goals in conditions of uncertainty of the future and continuous changes in the external and internal environments, as well as limited resources.

In general, the processes of strategic and tactical planning include the following basic tasks:

• multilateral analysis and comprehensive assessment of the current state and trends in the development of the external environment, as well as its impact on the processes of protecting the national interests of the Russian Federation; 
• analysis and assessment of the foreign policy, military-political, foreign economic, etc. situation;
• diagnosis of problem areas, identification and analysis of threats to the solution of national security tasks;
• analysis and comprehensive assessment of the current state of the internal environment and, above all, the national socio-economic system, including analysis of key areas, resource potential and real opportunities for its development;
• diagnosis, identification, analysis, classification, ranking and assessment of the potential danger of "windows" of vulnerability in the internal environment that hinder the progressive and safe development of the socio-economic system of the country;
• analysis of internal threats to destabilize society and the state (or individual regions), as well as necessary measures to counter these threats;
• formation of detailed targets, formulation of key problems to be solved;
• analysis of the needs for various types of resources (taking into account the available opportunities and limitations);
• analysis of the impact of probable external threats and internal risks, as well as other types of uncertainty on the processes of achieving the set goals;
• development and structuring of a system of planning and program activities aimed at achieving the goals and solving the identified problems, allocating the necessary resources, determining the composition and measures of responsibility of performers, as well as the timing of solving the tasks provided for in the plans;
• formation of a set of indicators and indicators (as well as their threshold values) that characterize the gradual achievement of the set goals;
• anticipatory (predictive) evaluation of the effectiveness of the complexes of measures and the timing of their implementation;
• development of a system for monitoring the implementation of plans and programs.

The analysis of the above-listed features of modern problems of ensuring national security shows that the use of only traditional approaches and methods of planning and management in solving the tasks under consideration becomes obviously insufficient due to a decrease in their effectiveness and efficiency, especially in conditions of aggressive and difficult-to-predict environmental impact. In addition, the realities of today impose increased, stringent, and in a number of areas – fundamentally new requirements for the system of planning and management of national security, which leads to a significant complication and qualitative change in the essence, content and nature of the procedures for preparing and implementing management decisions in the subject area, especially over a long time horizon.

These requirements are expressed, on the one hand, in the need for reliable diagnosis and comprehensive assessment of objective, but at the same time largely unobvious (hidden) nature of external and internal threats to national security, on the other – in the need for proactive analysis and forecasting of alternative ways of developing the situation in the military, political, social, economic, informational and other spheres. 

2. Scenario approach in planning and management

The absolute majority of traditionally used and well-proven approaches to solving strategic and medium-term planning tasks are based mainly on the results of the analysis of accumulated experience in solving similar tasks and extrapolation of current trends in the development of the management object and the processes of influence on it by the external environment.

In contrast to traditional planning methods (indicative, normative, balance, technical and economic, program-targeted, statistical, economic and mathematical, etc.), the development of a system of planning and management decisions, taking into account various alternatives for the future development of events at the management facility and in the external environment under risk conditions, is considered as a goal within the scenario approach. and uncertainty ^[14-16].

Timely identification and advanced analysis of uncertainty factors, as well as assessment of their potential impact on the development processes of the management object (managed system), the external environment or the situation under study as a whole, is today one of the central problems of improving planning processes, the relevance of which is especially high in the field of national security management, including within its individual functional and structural components.

Full consideration of this impact in the preparation of alternative options for planning and management decisions is one of the ways to improve their efficiency and effectiveness. At the same time, in the process of preparing decisions in the field of national security management, it is necessary to analyze various (most likely, "best" or "worst" for Russia, etc.) options for possible developments both in the external environment and within the country.

As already noted above, an extremely important specific feature of the processes of planning and managing national security is the high level of uncertainty in the development of the situation in the managed system and in the external environment, which leads to the need not only to solve a set of problems of its assessment, but also to develop methods and mechanisms to reduce the impact of uncertainty on the quality of training and, ultimately, on the account, on the effectiveness of the implementation of solutions.

Despite the general recognition of the existence of uncertainty factors in the process of preparing and making planning and management decisions, there is currently practically no single point of view regarding methods for assessing both their characteristics and the effectiveness of mechanisms to reduce their impact on the final result. Currently, there is also no generally accepted definition of the uncertainty factor, since this term is usually closely tied to the conceptual apparatus of a specific subject area under study and reflects the specifics of the tasks being solved ^[17-21].

Within the framework of long-term planning tasks, we will consider uncertainty as the presence of a random factor, partial or complete absence, incompleteness or inaccuracy of initial information about the structure and possible states of the controlled system and the external environment, as well as about the conditions for implementing the solution, as a result of which it is not possible to assess the expected results and possible consequences in advance, reliably and unambiguously ^[22]. In fact, this definition interprets uncertainty as a lack of knowledge about the situation under study (subjective or epistemological uncertainty), as well as a reflection of the properties of predictability and, to a certain extent, stochasticity of the nature of the internal variability of the control object or the impact on its functioning and development of the external environment (objective or aleatory, ontological uncertainty) ^[23-27].

The analysis and assessment of uncertainty is the most important stage in the process of preparing, first of all, strategic and long-term planned decisions, since it has a significant impact on their effectiveness and efficiency. One of the ways to solve the problem under consideration is to use a scenario approach in the processes of long-term planning.

The methodological basis of scenario planning is scenario technologies, which in principle make it possible to solve complex poorly structured problems in conditions of incomplete observability of external and internal processes; incompleteness and insufficient reliability of the initial quantitative and qualitative information; lack of accurate values of most factors describing the current situation; difficult to predict trends in the possible development of problematic situations; the secretive nature of many existing and potential threats to goals management; lack of practical ability to anticipate and evaluate in advance both positive and possible undesirable results of the implementation of the planned solutions being developed.

Scenarios in their essence are one of the forms of representation of the so–called variable "picture of the future", on the one hand, reflecting alternatives to the development of the situation at the management object and in the external environment in the form of a sequence of logically interrelated events, on the other - allowing to evaluate the possible results of a purposeful sequence of managerial decisions (impacts on the situation under study in a given direction).

Currently, the concept of a scenario in the theory of organizational management is already widely used. In foreign and domestic literature, two basic approaches to the definition of the scenario can be distinguished ^[28-33]. Within the framework of the first scenario, the emphasis is placed on the causal-factor determinacy of the sequential development of the problem situation under study. The second approach assumes that the purpose of scenario development is not to anticipate alternatives for the development of the situation under study, but first of all to establish a logical network of the sequence of events that determine the ways of this development ^[34-38].

Within the framework of solving the problems under study, it is advisable to consider the scenario as a tool for analyzing alternative options for possible changes in the situation in the field of managing the development of complex systems in order to informally support the processes of preparation and adoption of planning and management decisions, as well as advance evaluation of their effectiveness.

An enlarged classification of scenarios for the development of problematic situations according to various signs and their brief characteristic description are presented in Table 1.

Table 1.

Enlarged classification of scenarios

In practice, the scenario approach makes it possible to form target forecasts of the development of problematic situations in conditions of uncertainty, to identify and analyze a set of key risk factors and threats to the achievement of management goals, as well as to diagnose the presence of internal "windows" of vulnerability of both the management and the managed system.

It should be emphasized here that scenario analysis technologies are not functionally designed and do not allow generating final planning documents "at the output", i.e., strictly speaking, they are not planning technologies in the literal sense. Scenario technologies solve another task, which consists in a comprehensive analysis of alternative options for achieving planned goals in conditions of a high degree of uncertainty and risk. The use of scenario analysis procedures in the planning process makes it possible to increase the validity of planned decisions due to the possibility of assessing various possible threats of different nature and changes in the situation under study in the future, which can cause deviations from the implementation of planned tasks or lead to the impossibility of achieving the goals in the most severe case.

Thus, the main purpose of using scenario technologies in planning and management processes is information and analytical support of procedures for the preparation of strategic and tactical planning decisions based on a comprehensive advanced analysis of the effectiveness and effectiveness of their implementation under various conditions, i.e. scenarios for the development of problematic situations are essentially a necessary link between the stages of goal-setting and the formation of planning and management decisions, aimed at achieving management goals.

3. Analysis of the essence and methodology of scenario planning

Unlike traditional methods of planning and management, as already noted above, scenarios do not offer ready-made recipes and cannot be typical, since in practice there are absolutely no identical problem situations, and, accordingly, the possible ways of development of any of them (including both negative and positive consequences) cannot be reliably and unambiguously predict due to the high level of uncertainty ^[39-41]. Nevertheless, the use of scenarios can significantly improve the quality of the planned decisions made, and, accordingly, ensure the flexibility (adaptability) and sustainability of the plans being developed.

The analysis of the possibilities of using the scenario approach in the processes of long-term and medium-term planning allowed us to identify two basic integrated strategies ^[42]:

• (I) Focused scenario planning (SfP) based on a single scenario accepted as a baseline;
• (II) balanced scenario planning (SbP) based on the use of several scenarios describing possible alternatives for the development of events.

The first strategy allows you to focus the attention of decision makers on the only main direction of solving the problem, and the second one provides variability, flexibility and balance in decision–making due to the possibility of taking into account a wide range of alternatives in the development of events in the managed system and in the external environment.

Within the framework of these strategies, the following approaches to the transformation of scenarios into concrete plans can be distinguished.

1. Reaction to the most probable events. This approach within the framework of the SfP strategy is based on the use of a scenario reflecting the most likely development of the situation under study. Its advantage is the use of a single scenario in the process of developing strategic, tactical and operational plans as a single and fairly compact description of the sequence and interdependence of future events, which to a certain extent simplifies the processes and procedures for developing plans. The disadvantage is a significant dependence on the accuracy and reliability of scenario-forecast estimates of the nature and trends of the situation and, accordingly, the destructive influence of the external environment. At the same time, this effect of the residual uncertainty of the results of scenario analysis can be reduced by expanding its scope or subsequent clarifying scenario studies as new information becomes available or new knowledge is acquired (already within the framework of the SbP strategy). As a result, it is advisable to use this approach with limited or acceptable levels of uncertainty, risk and possible damages.
2. Minimization of possible damages. In this case, the focused strategy is based on a pessimistic scenario, assuming the maximum possible damage from the implementation of both existing and perceived threats to the achievement of management goals. This approach is advisable to use when, despite the fact that the probability of certain threats is low, the possible damage from their implementation is extremely large and can reach critical proportions. The disadvantage of this approach is the orientation only to the worst case scenario of possible developments, which determines the initial passivity of the planned decisions being formed, as well as the risks of irrational expenditure of resources, for example, reserved in case of the need for compensation for damages and material losses. To a certain extent, this disadvantage can be compensated for by a balanced strategy, which involves the analysis of several scenarios reflecting different alternatives to the development of events, while concentrating not only on minimizing possible damage, but also on reducing the risks of implementing destructive threats by evaluating possible ways of responding to these threats within the framework of the developed alternative scenarios.
3. Flexibility of planning. The use of alternative scenarios as the basis of planning processes and procedures allows you to link planned tasks not only to performers, deadlines and results, but also to significant events from the point of view of the set goals. This allows you to take into account in advance the possible changes in various socio-political, organizational, financial, economic, industrial, technological, etc. conditions, as well as to adjust priorities, the composition of tasks and performance criteria and, thus, to respond promptly and effectively to the current situation, as well as to adapt plans in accordance with both predicted and sudden actual changes in the situation (for example, due to the stochastic nature of the processes under study).
4. Maximizing performance. Within the framework of this approach, planning when using the SfP strategy is based on an optimistic scenario, assuming that there is a fundamental possibility of effectively achieving the main goal of management. On the one hand, the advantage of this approach is that it already at the early stages of the management cycle allows you to evaluate and effectively use the existing potential as a basis for successfully solving the tasks, as well as to anticipate or predict its growth in the future (including as a result of the implementation of measures to strengthen this potential). On the other hand, the approach under consideration carries very high risks, since other possible scenarios within the framework of the SfP strategy are not fully taken into account. Within the framework of this approach, the SbP strategy assumes a more balanced approach based on the results of the analysis of an expanded set of alternative scenarios that allow choosing a rational way to achieve the goal, taking into account the possible adverse impact of various alternatives to the development of the situation under study.
5. Formation of favorable external conditions. The main objective of this approach is to create favorable conditions for achieving the set goals by planning the impact on external sources of threats (where it is practically possible) and internal "windows" of vulnerability, while using a positive (best, ideal) scenario as a basis for achieving the main strategic goal. This proactive and essentially "offensive" approach is actually a tool for indirectly influencing future events by creating conditions for their development in the necessary direction. In order to reduce uncertainty, increase the reliability of the analysis results and assess the real possibilities of influencing the development of the situation under study, it is advisable in the planning process to simultaneously develop and consider a number of local scenarios assessing the effectiveness of countering or the possibility of eliminating the sources of the most serious external threats and having critical importance of internal "windows" of vulnerability.

The approaches discussed above certainly do not exhaust the full range of possibilities for using scenarios as the basis of strategic and tactical planning processes, since they (approaches) are largely determined by the specifics of the subject area, the system of goals and specific management tasks, as well as the specifics of the situation under study.

Currently, the scope of the scenario approach in solving a variety of applied problems and planning and management tasks in various subject areas is continuously expanding. However, the absolute majority of the used methods for constructing scenario variants are based, firstly, mainly only on expert methods of their formation; secondly, on the specifics of a specific and mostly strictly limited field of research, based on the results of the analysis of which highly specialized formalized models reflecting these features are developed on the basis of a variety of mathematical apparatus; thirdly, the development of alternative scenarios and their analysis are carried out by experts and specialized specialists mainly "manually".

Thus, at present there is practically no generally accepted and sufficiently universal methodological concept of formation and analysis of scenarios for the development of problematic situations, at least within certain classes of planning and management tasks. At the same time, to date, there is very little work on complex problems of formalizing the tasks of scenario analysis, automating the processes of generating and researching scenarios, as well as scenario-predictive evaluation of the effectiveness of management decisions in order to inform the processes of their preparation and adoption.

Today, considerable experience has already been accumulated in using the apparatus of sign, weighted sign and functional sign oriented graphs as a methodological basis for automating the processes of scenario research of a wide range of problems and tasks of managing the development of complex socio-economic systems ^[43-48].

The model under consideration is a directed graph in which each vertex is assigned a certain parameter of it, and also an arc transformation functional is introduced in such a way that a sign, weight or function is assigned to each arc. In order to ensure the possibility of studying the dynamics of the processes of development of the situation under study, the concept of an impulse process is introduced. A pulse at some vertex is understood as a change in the value of its parameter at a discrete moment in time.

Meaningfully, the parameters of the graph vertices are the key indicators (factors) describing the state and dynamics of the development of the situation under study, the structure of the sign graph reflects their cause-and-effect interdependencies. The set of values of the vertex parameters in the graph model describes the specific state of the situation under study at a certain point in time, while a change in any of them generates an impulse and is interpreted as its (situation) change. Control actions are modeled by pulses applied to certain vertices of the graph or by changing the structure of the model ^[43-44].

To solve the problems of information and analytical support of the processes of preparation, adoption and evaluation of the effectiveness of planning and management decisions in conditions of uncertainty, a specialized software and analytical complex (PAK) has been developed that provides automation of the processes of creating and researching scenarios on the methodological basis of graph models ^[49-50].

As a rule, scenarios are generated and analyzed in two main aspects:

1. the forecast of the development of the situation in the absence of control actions, i.e. the situation develops by itself (synergistic scenarios);
2. forecast of the development of the situation with the selected set of control actions (attractive scenarios).

The use of automation technologies for scenario-predictive research as a means of information support for the preparation and decision-making processes significantly expands the possibilities of using scenarios as the basis of planning processes in order to increase the validity, efficiency, sustainability and effectiveness of the plans and programs being developed (Table 2).

Table 2.

Scenario analysis technologies in planning

If within the framework of the traditional approach, when, as already noted above, the development and analysis of scenarios for the development of the situation under study is carried out by experts and specialized specialists "manually" and, accordingly, requires considerable time, as a result of which decisions are made on the basis of a single basic scenario, then the use of automation tools radically changes the situation.

The technology of scenario synthesis automation makes it possible to use a full set of various scenario tools necessary for decision-making at almost any stage of the planning and management process, as well as to carry out clarifying scenario-forecast studies of the effectiveness of decisions made, taking into account both new knowledge about the processes and phenomena under study obtained during the analysis, and operational information about them coming into the management system. development.

Automation of information support allows for the phased development of planned documents in iterative mode (development of a draft plan, analysis and expert evaluation, discussion of interim results, revision of identified shortcomings, protection of the plan and analysis of comments, approval and commissioning of the plan). The draft plan within the framework of this approach can go through repeated cycles at any stage and actually be carried out in parallel with a continuous scenario analysis (including the necessary modifications of the initial forecast models) and an assessment of the most significant expected results with the possibility of making the necessary adjustments at subsequent stages. Thus, the considered planning technology allows for a deep and comprehensive study of the most important and critical project directions from the point of view of the set goals at any stage of the development of planning documents.

It should be noted here that from a technological point of view, the effectiveness of scenario planning is largely determined by the quality and clarity of the formulation of the research task, since vague and inaccurately defined problems significantly complicate the identification of key factors describing it and, as a consequence, the construction of high-quality scenarios, the constant refinement of which can also become an endless process. In addition, there should not be too many scenarios, their multitude should be foreseeable and determined solely by the necessary scale and real capabilities of analytical research. A mechanical increase in the volume and detail of information regarding the future does not automatically mean an increase in its accuracy and practical usefulness and, accordingly, cannot significantly affect the efficiency of planned decisions.

The main advantages of scenario planning are the following.

1. Scenarios, especially at the initial stages of planning processes, are the basis for evaluating strategic alternatives – a combination of various possible (including mutually exclusive) directions and options for the long-term development of a managed system or management object, characterized by various risks, parameters and indicators, resource needs, expected results, constraints, etc. In addition, the scenario approach makes it possible to develop integrated management strategies that ensure a significant reduction in risk components and dependence on real, expected and difficult-to-predict developments in the future.
2. By forming hypothetical sequences of interrelated events in the future, scenarios allow for a proactive analysis of changes in the situation and at an early stage to identify related problems in the development of the managed system, assess the negative impact of the external environment on it, as well as diagnose threats to the achievement of goals. As a consequence, the planning process can be carried out taking into account the multivariance of both the initial conditions and the solutions themselves, which makes it possible to identify certain combinations of these conditions (the onset of which is extremely difficult to fully predict and analyze by traditional methods, if at all practically possible), for which the alternatives developed may be effective, or, conversely, unacceptable.
3. The scenario approach in the process of studying unstructured and not amenable to strict formalization of problems allows you to operate with a wide variety of quantitative and qualitative indicators that are different in nature, including not always directly comparable indicators, and also take into account the nature of cause-and-effect relationships between them, which significantly expands the initial information field and, accordingly, the possibilities of preparing effective planned solutions.  
4. Scenarios, using a wide variety of quantitative and qualitative data of arbitrary nature as initial data, can also rely on the results obtained using other (external, including formalized) methods and models for forecasting and assessing certain types of uncertainties and risks, which significantly expands the boundaries of understanding of the LPR, as well as experts and specialized specialists of the essence and features of actually occurring processes and phenomena.
5. The scenario approach makes it possible to maintain the functioning of the management system in a proactive mode, which provides for the possibility of making complex proactive management decisions to prevent potential problems, threats and risks. This makes it possible to proactively plan the necessary measures to counter potential threats and reduce the severity of the consequences of their implementation, including at times when negative phenomena are only potential in nature (i.e. there is only some probability of their manifestation, or the threats in question have not yet begun to have any significant impact on the situation under study).
6. Scenario analysis in the planning process makes it possible to identify counterproductive and unpromising goals of various levels, the first of which cannot be achieved in principle due to the lack of real opportunities, exposure to significant external and internal risks, the presence of various types of restrictions, powerful counteraction of the external environment, etc., and the second, appearing promising only in the short term, for a longer period the time horizon may lead to adverse (including unacceptable) consequences.
7. Within the framework of scenario research, it becomes possible to integrate the processes of analyzing the effectiveness of strategic tasks and measures of rapid response of the management system to problems that have arisen (unforeseen threats or circumstances, emergency situations, significant deviations from planned indicators, etc.). Operational measures are certainly necessary due to the fact that they provide at least a reduction in the severity of problems and stabilization situations, but only for a limited period of time. The development and analysis of scenarios over a long time horizon makes it possible to assess both the possible negative consequences of the management system's orientation to momentary problems (and in fact, to solve extremely important, but still separate and in most cases poorly interrelated functional tasks at a certain moment), and the maximum permissible duration of these solutions, as well as what is especially important is to identify possible solutions to the problems that have arisen (including reducing their negative impact or preventing the occurrence of these problems) in the long term at the system level.
8. A deep and comprehensive analysis of the situation in the development of a scenario model, as well as a study based on it of possible trends in the development of the situation in dynamics, allows us to significantly expand the boundaries of understanding the laws and associated risks of the development of the processes under consideration, as well as the specifics of the task being solved, thereby forming new knowledge, ultimately contributing to improving the quality of planning and management decisions. A remarkable and characteristic feature of the processes of forming new knowledge about the complex processes under study is the fact that, in addition to identifying new patterns and conditions for the development of the controlled system and the external environment, they can also detect new types of uncertainty that were previously unknown or underestimated in the processes of domain analysis, the development of targets or the formulation of a planning task. This, in particular, indicates that in practice, the situations under study in the process of scenario analysis often turn out to be much more complex than initially thought.

The wide opportunities provided by the use of scenario analysis methodology in the process of preparing planning and management decisions, in practice, still do not allow avoiding the so-called residual uncertainty, which is primarily due to the fact that any scenario absolutely cannot guarantee that events will develop strictly in accordance with the sequence described in its framework and in reality will not there will be new risks and threats to the processes of achieving management goals. This, of course, must be taken into account in the process of preparing planned decisions.

At the same time, the effectiveness of the use of scenario planning methods is higher, the longer the time horizon, and, accordingly, the initial uncertainty is higher, taking into account the impact of which on the development of the controlled system and its interaction with the external environment by traditional methods is extremely difficult.

Four levels of uncertainty can be distinguished in strategic planning processes ^[51-53].

Level 1. Low, characterized by the ability to accurately predict the development of the situation in the future and, as a result, practically does not affect standard planning procedures, since at this level uncertainty does not significantly affect the quality of decisions made and can be significantly reduced by using a fairly wide range of tools for developing accurate forecasts. In addition, at the considered level, it is assumed that there is complete, timely and reliable initial information about the structure, state and development trends of the management object and the external environment, and it is also possible to obtain not only qualitative, but also quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of decisions, the main external and internal risks, threats and possible damages in a wide range of areas. However, in the practice of solving managerial tasks, such a situation is "ideal" and is extremely rare, especially when solving strategic planning tasks.

Level 2. Medium, requiring the addition of traditional approaches and planning procedures with scenario technologies for analyzing alternative futures. At this level of uncertainty in the process of making planning and management decisions, a limited number of alternative forecast scenarios are being developed (in practice, two or three, and in some cases, several more are possible), from which, as a result of the analysis, one is selected, mainly the most likely, optimistic or pessimistic. This level is typical for rather "narrow" practical tasks, when the subject of management has the minimum necessary, but at the same time sufficient amount of initial information that allows reliably predicting alternatives in the development of the situation under study, and the solution is actually determined by the chosen scenario. At the same time, the volume of key (and reliably measurable) performance indicators is also limited, which somewhat simplifies the procedures for anticipating the effectiveness of decisions made.

At the considered level, mainly synergistic scenarios are synthesized (without external intervention or with the use of a limited set of specified local control actions), the main purpose of which is to identify the basic trends in the development of the managed system and assess the significance of threats to the processes of achieving management goals (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Schematic diagram of scenario threat analysis

Level 3. High, requiring the use of almost the entire range of possibilities of the scenario approach in the development of planning and management decisions. This level occurs most often when solving strategic tasks and is characterized by a wide range of quantitative and qualitative parameters, as well as the high complexity of their interrelations, and the real result can be at any point in the phase space of these indicators and significantly depends on the influence of not fully controlled internal and external factors, as well as difficult-to-predict trends in their changes.

The considered level of uncertainty is characteristic of fundamentally new, as well as large-scale and long-term strategic tasks, when traditional methods of both diagnostic and complex detailed analysis (including expert methods and technologies) allow us to form estimates of only a limited set of characteristics of the state and development trends of the management object and the external environment, as well as related interactions and interdependencies between the elements of the studied managed system and external environment.

Due to the extremely weak predictability of the nature of the development of the situation under study, especially over a long time horizon, its analysis requires the development of attractive scenarios reflecting a certain range of possible scenarios for the development of the situation.

At this level of uncertainty, the complexity of developing scenarios for the development of the situation and their analysis increases significantly in order to obtain a full forecast range of estimates of the possible results of the implementation of the planned management decisions being developed (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3. Schematic diagram of scenario analysis of the effectiveness of strategic decisions

Level 4. Ultra-high, in many ways beyond the understanding of specialists and PLR and therefore requires additional and in-depth analytical research of the subject area. This level is the opposite extreme to the first level and is quite rare in the practice of organizational management. In the situation under consideration, the uncertainty is so multidimensional that any characteristics of the situation under study are practically impossible to predict or foresee, and even to identify its parameters and even more so to investigate them with the help of scenario technologies is extremely difficult. Moreover, it is extremely difficult to clearly formulate management goals and assess the existing limitations, as a result of which attempts to develop effective solutions are repeatedly complicated.

In such a situation, the only way out is to apply at the first stage the methods of a comprehensive and sufficiently long-term study of the subject area in question on a multidisciplinary basis in order to "shift" the problem under consideration towards the third or, if this is possible, the second level. 

Conclusion

The effectiveness of national security management is largely determined by the quality of solving strategic long-term tasks that ensure the possibility of preserving the state sovereignty of the Russian Federation, protecting the national interests of the country, strengthening its defense capability, internal unity and political stability, preserving national identity and value systems in the face of an unprecedented aggravation of the international situation and the actual escalation in the first quarter of the XXI century of interstate conflicts in intercivilizational. All this leads to a significant tightening of the requirements for the quality and effectiveness of decisions taken in the subject area under consideration and, accordingly, to a significant complication of the procedures for their preparation and implementation management, especially taking into account the interdependence and inextricable relationship of Russia's national security with the level of its socio-economic development.

Currently, the assessment of the effectiveness of national security management is an extremely complex and theoretically still insufficiently developed problem, since there are no direct methods of measuring it that are actually applicable in practice (especially universal within the framework of an expanded interpretation of the concept of security) at the moment due to the extremely high complexity, and in most cases, the impossibility the exact mathematical formalization of the management tasks to be solved (with rare exceptions relating to particular tasks on individual components of the subject area under consideration).

The main difficulty in the processes of preparation and adoption of both strategic and, to a somewhat lesser extent, tactical decisions in the field of planning and management of national security is the need to take into account the impact of uncertainty, the extremely difficult risks associated with it, as well as both existing and potential external and internal threats to Russian society and the state.

At the same time, since the possibilities of practical application of accurate methods of predictive assessments of possible ways of development of the situation are extremely limited, in the planning process it is necessary to use a methodology based on so-called incomplete mathematical models that include only the most significant factors from the point of view of the research objectives, quantitative or qualitative assessment of which can be carried out with an acceptable level of reliability of the results obtained.

One of the approaches to solving the problems and tasks under consideration is the developed formalized methodology for the formation and analysis of alternative scenarios for the development of complex weakly formalized systems, capable of providing effective information support for decision-making processes in various segments and at various levels of the hierarchy of the national security management system, providing the possibility of providing the necessary data on existing and potential threats and risks to the LPR in order to taking adequate and timely measures based on the results of scenario-forecast assessment of possible trends and options for the development of events and processes in the internal and external environment.

The potential of the proposed approach for solving the problems under consideration lies in the wide possibilities of using simulation models built on the methodological basis of the apparatus of sign digraphs, which allow in the process of modeling to investigate the most diverse in nature and interrelated (interdependent) processes and phenomena that determine the development trends of both the controlled system and the nature of the influence of aggressive external environment on it.

Scenario-predictive studies are to a large extent a universal and quite powerful analysis tool in the process of preparing planning decisions at the strategic level, providing opportunities:

• multivariate consideration and analysis of alternative ways of development of problematic situations on a given time horizon;
• highlighting the sets of objective and subjective external and internal factors of development characteristic of each of the alternatives, as well as analyzing the nature of their interrelations and interdependencies;
• justification and selection of general and local criteria for management effectiveness and restrictions;
• analysis of structural features and possible consequences of the implementation of planning and management decisions;
• formation of key indicators and indicators reflecting and explaining possible ways of development of the problem situation and their compliance with the desired (or vice versa, unacceptable) result from the point of view of the set goals;
• implementation of analytical assessment procedures for uncertainties, existing and potential security threats and risks under various conditions;
• acquisition of new knowledge as a synergistic effect from the implementation of scenario analysis processes of the situations under study on an interdisciplinary basis, the use of which can open up new opportunities to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of planning and management decisions.

The use of the above-mentioned capabilities makes it possible to increase the effectiveness of strategic planning of national security processes, which is achieved by increasing the validity of management decisions aimed at achieving the set goals based on the results of an analysis of possible options for the development of problematic situations, as well as a proactive assessment of the possible consequences of the adoption and implementation of these decisions.

At the tactical level, the scenario approach can be used to assess detailed management impacts aimed at achieving the set strategic goals. In order to provide information support for the preparation of tactical decisions, the basic scenario can be divided into a number of interrelated local scenarios, the analysis of which will allow us to present a general description of the problem situation in the form of a certain set of fragments with the allocation of the most significant operational details.

In the future, in the same way as described above, the tasks of developing and evaluating the effectiveness of tactical management decisions to compensate for deviations from planned indicators are solved (or, in the absence of such opportunities, to adjust them taking into account newly arisen problems and tasks, unforeseen threats or other circumstances on the short–term time horizon). In addition, the considered approach provides an opportunity for operational adjustment of strategic (planned) decisions as new factual and analytical data are obtained, thereby giving a "process" character to the decisions taken and contributing to the growth of their balance and timeliness due to adequate consideration of threats to the achievement of the goals.

The results of the analysis of the scenario planning methodology presented in the paper are only one of the first steps towards solving the problems of improving the effectiveness of national security management in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The high relevance of the problems under consideration currently requires the development of theoretical and applied interdisciplinary research in the development of methods and technologies for analyzing and synthesizing scenarios of possible development of the situation, as well as their practical use to solve specific problems in the subject area under consideration.

Equally important and requiring separate consideration are the problems of embedding scenario technology into the functional structure of the system for preparing strategic and tactical planning decisions in order to form a single end-to-end information technology chain of planned calculations, developing mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of developed plans and proactive monitoring of the criticality of possible deviations from planned indicators, as well as methods and procedures for replanning in the event of a significant changes in the situation in the external and internal environment and corresponding adjustments to the initial target settings.