Brazhnikov P.P. The prospects for a multipolar world

Abstract:   This article is written based on the position that states are functionally similar to commercial organizations. It is argued that the main function of a state consists in production and "sale" of services for security of specific working conditions. These conditions are provided by various subsystems of states and are a response to the elements of states (citizens) for their invested labor. This interaction is the basis of stability of state systems.   Based on the above economic model the algorithms of establishment of monopolies or oligopolies concluded. Such situations match unipolar or multipolar world. The model allows a better understanding of the international political structure, as well as making assumptions about its prospects.   The natural algorithms of the monopolization of the international market are shown. These algorithms are based on distribution of regulating competitive environment and increase of attractiveness of the conditions of the market leader state. These conditions are characterized by high, but unlikely profit. There is also simultaneous distribution of "symbolic capital" of the economic center, which matches the popularity of its products and brands. These algorithms lead to inclusion of other countries’ residents into subsystems of the market leader state.   Furthermore, it is shown that a fairly high level of monopolization of international system will bring about prerequisites for emergence of a second oligopolist. Transition from a monopoly to a duopoly is possible due to the high cost terms dictated by the leader-state. Competitive advantage of a second competitor is the high predictability of the profit, but not its value. Equilibrium in this duopoly is only possible if the second duopolist agrees on the position of the follower, rather than a leader.   The author demonstrates the impossibility of a stable system with more than two oligopolists. Thence a multipolar world case is not attainable, except the in a bipolar world. In the conclusion, the author describes the algorithms of loss of the monopoly power by the market leader state and emergence of a new leader. Substantiation of claims is based on the limitation of resources of the state systems.  

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