Chesnokova L.A., Malyshev S.A., Yashina N.I. Factor Modeling of Receipts of Income tax in the Regional Budget

Abstract: The subject of the research is income tax revenues in the regional budget of the Russian Federation. The authors of the article analyze the possibility of using factor models for predicting tax revenues. The purpose of the research is to connect socio-economic indicators of regions with the volume of receipts of the income tax. To achieve the aforesaid target, it is necessary to allocate the factors defining receipts of income tax in the regional budget and to establish their mathematical dependence with the income tax. In order to achieve the reserach goals, the authors have chosen significant factors, and have constructed one-factor and two-factor mathematical models of receipt of income tax depending on qualititaive elements of the tax. The Nizhny Novgorod Region is chosen as the case study. Based on the analysis of data from the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation and Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation the authors have created regression models. As a result of the research the authors have developed one-factor models to demonstrate the relation between the target indicator (the amount of the income tax received by the regional budget) and sign factors. They have also outlined two significant sign factors to be used in the two-factor model that would reflect the influence of indicators of the amount of tax payments on regional tax revenues (in the Nizhny Novgorod Region). To prove the significance and validity of the models the authors have used mathematical and statistical methods. All the models have been recognized as significant based on the research results. The authors of the present research have established the mathematical relationship (in the form of regression models) between income tax revenues and their determinant factors.   

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