Neymatov A.Ya. Risks and threats of the color revolution in Tajikistan

Abstract: This article is dedicated to the analysis of possible prerequisites of realization of the scenario of color revolutions in Tajikistan. It is a known fact that today Tajikistan is in the “group of risk” with regards to color revolutions; among the countries of higher priority for the organizers of color revolutions are Kazakhstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan is in the second echelon. The results of the analysis of the network activity of the opposition groups in Tajikistan allow concluding that currently the country is in the phase of preparation of the “color” government overthrow, in other words, in the phase of realization of the scenario of color revolution, which includes the entire preliminary preparation and is being conducted under conditions of secrecy. There are currently at least two political powers in Tajikistan which can be used as political technologists: the Islamists, whose activity is coordinated by the representatives of the “Islamic State”; and the pro-American oriented “supporters of the European values”, who is against of Tajikistan’s participation in the European integrational projects, the leading role in which is played by Russia. The preventive factor for the color revolution in Tajikistan is the military presence of Russia (the 201st military base) and the membership of Tajikistan in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization – the organizations that secure the regional security.  

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