Efremova T.A., Ivanova I.A. Assessment of Efficiency of the Tax Administration Through Econometric Modeling

Abstract: Tax revenues are the main source of state revenue, the magnitude of which depends on the performance of all of its directorates - social, economic, military, defense, law enforcement, on the development of fundamental science and others. Completeness and timeliness of tax revenue is intended to enable the tax administration - management of tax relations by the state. Predicting the dynamics of tax revenues to the state budget is a prerequisite for stable development of the state. For this widely used economic and statistical modeling techniques. The article discusses the correlation and regression modeling depending on the level of tax revenues from the efficiency of the tax administration. The main purpose of multiple regression is to build a model with a large number of factors, determining at the same time the influence of each of them separately, as well as their impact on the cumulative simulated index. The factors that provide the formation of tax revenue with the most influence are discussed. The study of the nature and the modeled relationship between factors and effective indicator, allowed to select and justify the two mathematical regression equations (linear and degree), based on three variables: the value of actual repayment of debt; coverage of taxpayers' field tax audit; reduced the amount of tax payments, as a result of tax audits.Comparison of equations with each other on the criteria of significance (t-statistic indicators for the regression parameters, determination coefficient, multiple correlation coefficient, Fisher test) allowed to define some of them, which most accurately expresses the essence of the study of dependence. It was recommended for the study and forecasting of tax revenues to the budgetary system.

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