Malkina M.Yu., Balakin R.V. Analysis of Tax Revenues in the Russian Federation, Federal Districts and Regions of the Russian Federation Using the Logarithmic Method of Factor Analysis

Abstract: The subject of the research is the tax revenues in the regions and districts of the Russian Federation as well as factors influencing these revenues. In their research Malkina and Balakin have described the following four factors of tax revenues: overall federal tax return factor, relative tax return factor for a region, economic growth factor and inflation factor for a region/district. The first factor demonstrates how tax revenues are influenced by changes in the tax policy of the federal center and tax administration of the country in general as well as structural changes in the country's economy which, in its turn, has an impact on the general tax level. The second factor indicates the change in the structure of the region's economy and direct influence of the regional tax policy on the region's tax revenues. The third factor reflects the influence of the region's economic growth on actual tax revenues. The fourth factor evalutes the influence of the inflation rate on final tax revenues of the region. The research is based on official statistical data provided by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service and Federal Tax Service for the period from 2006 to 2013. Based on the analysis of Russian and foreign literature, the authors have analyzed the main approaches to modelling tax systems and decomposing factors influencing the overall level and dynamics of tax revenues. The authors offer a four-factor multiplicative model of forming tax revenues. By using the logarithmic method of factor analysis, the authors have evaluated the influence of each factor on the dynamics of total tax revenues in regions and districts of the Russian Federation. The results of the analysis conducted on the basis of the multiplicative model allow to evaluate the influence of the overall federal tax return as well as the economic growth and inflation rate on tax revenues in the regions and districts of the Russian Federation over the 7-year period. The results of the research are the following: 1) The overall federal tax return factor has a relatively even influence on tax revenues in regions, however, it has had different directions and force in different years. 2) The relative tax return factor demonstrates a certain tendency in a few regions but mostly influenced by differently directed fluctuations. 3) The economic growth factor has had mostly a positive differentiated influence on tax revenues, this influence has been decreasing through years. 4) The inflaction factor has had a dominating increasing influence on the growth of tax revenues in regions and districts. The results of the research can be useful for evaluating the quality of the tax policy at the regional and federal levels. 

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