Golosovskiy M.S. Model of estimation of inaccuracies in predicting the timing of software development

Abstract: The subject of research is in the area of software development. An important task for this field is to accurately predict the timing of software development. However, the lack of standard set of tasks for which the execution time is predetermined or measured considerably complicates time management. Given these uncertainties, the author created a mathematical model of estimation of errors in predicting the timing of software development based on adaptive fuzzy system with an array of production rules, the antecedents and the consequent for which are represented by linguistic variables. The research methodology combines software engineering techniques and methods of fuzzy inference using fuzzy controllers based on production rules. The main result of the research is in building a model of estimation of errors in predicting the timing of software development based on fuzzy adaptive control system and the studies of its potential effectiveness. It is shown that the advantages of the developed model are: the possibility of obtaining error estimates based on expert judgment in the absence of statistical data; the possibility of adjusting the model during the project; the stability of the model to the one-time changes in the resulting noise values; the ability to transfer the model in a new project.

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