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Shagieva A.Kh. Mathematical modeling in crisis management

Abstract: The subject of this research is the system of mathematical modeling of the processes under the conditions of crisis management. Analysis of modern approaches towards solution of the problem of crisis management within enterprises demonstrates that they are based on financial analysis and bankruptcy forecasting using comparison of certain coefficients with the up-to-date values and state the fact of a presence of a final crisis state – bankruptcy. Mathematical modeling provides for a high level of justification of decisions, reduction of time needed to develop solutions, and the ability to deploy countermeasures in order to prevent bankruptcy. The author presents a mathematical model for forecasting crisis within a company based on its financial results. The devised complex of models will allow forecasting the start and development of a crises within a business based on an optimal assortment, structure and volume of products. The use of mathematical modeling and forecasting within the system of crisis management would allow managers and company executives to concretize the methods for preventing, neutralizing, and overcoming the crises.

Keywords:

Management, Crisis, Modeling, Forecasting, Bankruptcy, Analysis, Business, Assortment, Product line, Financial results

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