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V.V. Shumov Modeling of security: geopolitical and national aspects

Abstract: The purpose of this research is to discover and analyze the major, aggregated and measurable factors that define a state’s or region’s security levels. Factors that impact national security (population and its structure, territory, technology level), are studied in order to build a mathematical model for regional, national and global security. In order to evaluate the model’s parameters and its verification, the author employs historical, statistical and analytical data that characterize the security of a state or region: population numbers and composition, territory size, social and economic characteristics, innovation index, etc. Along with the basic model, the author composed a dynamic model that reflects the changes in security, depending on ethnic growth, or reduction in population numbers, as well as affected by technological development. Using the systemic, axiological and historical approaches, and methods of mathematical modeling, the author formulated criteria for national and regional security that reflect the dichotomy of two values: sovereignty (abilities and capabilities for self-realization and freedom) and preservation (order, convenience, comfort). In the conception of this model the author uses the production function and the Pareto distribution. The model parameter evaluation is performed, based on Russian Federation’s statistical data, as well as historical and statistical security data for World War I participant countries. On the example of Austrian-Hungarian Empire’s dissolution, and based on the results of calculations, the author formulates the following hypothesis: Preservation levels of 0.4-0.6 is an indicator for possible dissolution of a large, multinational state.

Keywords:

security, national security, regional security, geopolitics, sovereignty, mathematical model, security criteria, function of sovereignty, function of preservation, technological factor.

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