V.P. Stolyar Methodological traits of situational medical prediction

Abstract: This research is focused on the processes of situational medical analysis and prediction, which is characterized by uncertainty and, in many cases, is impacted by a lack of retrospective statistical information, which would allow to build adequate mathematical prediction models. The abovementioned issues substantiate the necessity for solving the problem at hand, with the help of experts who are capable of producing quality predictions on the basis of rich professional experience in solving such problems. The author produces a scientifically substantiated, tested situational medical prediction methodology, basing their solutions on expert assistance in the target area. The methodology of the research is based on collecting and processing expert information theory, medical IT and medical statistics. The emergence of a methodological base for situational medical prognosis as a system of stages of factological data and expert judgment processing is the main result of this research. The decision-making assistance system, based on the real-time process and analysis of the existing situation, combined with generated variants of sanitary and hygienic monitoring, assists with prediction of disease spread and charting the situation, calculation of personnel and materiel requirements for realizing treatment and prophylactic procedure complexes, and reaching adequate administrative decisions.

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