Shelkov, A.B., Shultz, V.L., Kulba, V.V., Chernov, I.V. Scenario analysis for the efficiency of regional security management.

Abstract: The authors provide the results of the analysis of the key problems in the sphere of regional security management for the purpose of sustainable non-crisis social and economic development of Russian regions in the conditions of influence of internal and external threats to regional security. The authors provide results of analysis of various aspects of internal and external elements of regional security, as well as the problems of counteraction against various extremist manifestation and prevention of international and interreligious conflicts. It is shown that in the conditions of globalization, growing interdependency of economic and social systems in different states, as well as intensive development of the global information community the external destructive information influences upon the target audiences or certain social groups may serve as prerequisites for the disruption of social stability. The authors provide analysis of efficiency of use of scenario approach in order to resolve the problems of regional security management. In order to achieve the established goals with the use of the apparatus of the signed digraphs the authors have developed an integrated multi-factor model, allowing to provide for the anticipatory scenario for the analysis of the process of development of the situation in the social spheres and related spheres. The authors provide results of the scenario studies of the developed model, showing that the efficient organization of management of the processes of counteraction against outer destructive information influence, as well as of the processes of planning, preparing and implementation of active information campaigns in order to support social stability and fight various extremist manifestations in the regions is capable of considerable improvement of regional security level.

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