L. I. Borodkin, A. V. Dmitrieva On the Role of Exogenous Factors in Exchange Rate Dynamics of Securities of the Nobel Brothers Petroleum Production Company at the End of the 19th to the Beginning of the 20th Centuries

Abstract: This article analyzes the evolution of exchange rate in securities by the largest oil firm in pre-revolutionary Russia—the Nobel Brothers Petroleum Production Company—at the beginning of the 20th century. The company had huge significance for the petroleum branch; its history represents its independent interest and is indicative of the petroleum sector on the whole. The purpose of the article is to investigate the influence of fundamental economic factors and political events (such as the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905 and the First Russian Revolution of 1905–1907) on stock market behavior (through the example of petroleum values). It gives brief characterization of the activities of the company in the context of processes that occurred at the beginning of the 20th century in the petroleum branch. Through the use of data on the dynamics of stock prices, profits of the business, and dynamics of the index of industrial production, regression models are constructed that have different explanatory power. Statistical analysis confirmed the connection of the dynamics of the company’s shares prices with exogenous factors (especially profit).

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