Stiblar, F.F. Economies of federal units of ex-Yugoslavia after independence

Abstract: In present article the author’s aim is to find out how Post Yugoslav countries could accelerate the past insufficient economic growth in order to achieve a real conversion to advanced economies, which is required for their accession to the EU. GDP growth rate is used as the main indicator for economic growth, complemented by other indicators of economic and social development. At the time of collapse in 1991, former Yugoslavia was among less developed European countries with unsustainable economic and social differences among its federal units. In the last twenty years, the economic and social differences among Post Yugoslav countries increased even further, partly due to different impact of military activities and partly due different degree of approximation to the EU. Improvements in utilization of existing factor endowments and creation of new factor endowments could accelerate growth of Post Yugoslav countries by 2022 (by two thirds compared to 2005), but not enough to enable their true real convergence, a precondition for the EU membership. Despite changes in status (independence), economic system (transition to private market economies) and economic environment (global financial crisis), growth rates in Post Yugoslav countries in the last 40 years remain at 3.3% on average. The author deeply scrutinizes the development level and disparities of federal units on the eve of collapse of Ex-Yugoslavia in 1990; analyses development of Post Yugoslav countries after their independence until today; gives reasons for a prediction of economic growth of Post Yugoslav countries in next decade until 2022.

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