Skorochkin, A. A. Geopolitical Aspects of Using the Method of International Conflict Analysis for the Purpose of Ensuring Energy Security for the Russian Federation on the Global Commodity Market

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to prove that it is possible to view the threats for Russia’s energy security from the point of view of such system properties as instability and tension in international relations regarding energy resources. Based on the fact that fuel and energy facilities play a significant role in ensuring a sustainable economic development, energy security is viewed as the most important element of national security. This research is part of the fundamental study of limited resources and intense competition for continuous import deliveries, diversification of the market and fair price formation. Taking into account that relations with several actors, each of which has it own motives and interests, are very like to be faced with conflicts, for forecast objectives it is very useful to apply to modern methods of conflict analysis, in particular, the phase-factor model of international conflict analysis. This model views conflict as a succession of phases, each of which is defined by a certain number of properties reflecting certain patterns of events and phenomena and defined through a previous historical analysis of similar situations. This instrument can turn out to be very useful when making a forecast about prospective development of international relations in the sphere of energy security.

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