The scenario analysis in managing social security.


	National Security Reference: Shultz, V.L. The scenario analysis in managing social security. // National Security. 2012. № 6. P. 4-21. URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=61990 Shultz, V.L. The scenario analysis in managing social security. Abstract: The article includes analysis of use of the scenario approach in order to solve the problems in the sphere of managing social security. The author provides the results of development and scenario studies of the basic integrated multi-factor model, which allows to have advance analysis of the situation development processes in the social sphere, as well as to evaluate the quality of decisions in order to guarantee social stability. Keywords: sociology, social security, organizational management, social stability, basic indicators, socio- economic system, scenario analysis, imitation modeling, sign field, management decisions. This article can be downloaded freely in PDF format for reading. Download article References 1. Modeli i metody analiza i sinteza stsenariev razvitiya sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh sistem: v 2-kh kn. / pod red. V.L. Shul'tsa i V.V. Kul'by.-M.: Nauka 2012. 2. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B. i dr. Infor ma tsion noe uprav-lenie v usloviyakh aktivnogo protivoborstva. / Pod red. chl.-korr. RAN V.L.Shul'tsa.-M.: Nauka, 2011. 3. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B. Informatsion noe upravlenie. Chast' 1. Kontseptual'nye osnovy. // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'.-ISPI RAN, 2009, № 3. 4. Kul'ba V.V., Shul'ts V.L., Shelkov A.B. Informatsion noe upravlenie. Chast' 2. Stsenarnyy podkhod // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'.-M.: ISPI RAN, 2009, №4. 5. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B. Informatsionnoe upravlenie: metodologiya podderzhki krupnomasshtabnykh strategicheskikh proektov. // Trudy XVII Mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii po problemam upravleniya bezopasnost'yu slozhnykh sistem.-M.: IPU RAN. 2009 g. 6. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Kononov D.A. Informatsion-noe upravlenie: podderzhka strategicheskikh proektov osvoeniya arkti-cheskogo sektora. Chast' 2. Stsenarnoe modelirovanie informatsionnykh kampaniy. //-Natsional'naya bezopasnost'-.-M.: ISPI RAN, 2010, №3/4. 7. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Upravlenie re-gional'nym sotsial'noekonomicheskim razvitiem na baze stsenarnogo podkhoda. //-Natsional'naya bezopasnost'-.-M.: ISPI RAN, 2010, №5/6. 8. Makarov V.E. Sotsial'naya bezopasnost' v usloviyakh novogo politiche-skogo kursa // Obozrevatel'-Observer, 2009. №3(230)-http://www.rau.su/ observer/N3_2009/026_030.pdf. 9. Pirogov G. Sotsial'naya sfera kak sredotochie problem natsional'noy bezopasnosti. // Obozrevatel'-Observer, 1997. № 9(92)-http:// www.rau.su/observer/N09_97/010.htm. 10. Chmykhalo A.Yu. Sotsial'naya bezopasnost': Uchebnoe posobie-Tomsk: Izd-vo TPU, 2007. 11. Ayvazyan S.A. Integral'nye indikatory kachestva zhizni naseleniya: ikh postroenie i ispol'zovanie v sotsial'no-ekonomicheskom upravlenii i mezhregional'nykh sopostavleniyakh.-M.: TsEMI RAN, 2000

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Shultz, V.L. The scenario analysis in managing social security.