Kravchenko L.I. Regional Leadership in Latin America

Abstract: The author examines closely the concept of (sub)regional leader. The leader should have such characteristic features as powerful resource potential, military capacity and political ambitions of leadership. The author has analysed statistical data and foreign policy concepts, and identified states that have become poles of power (gravity) in the region, or have the potential to initiate the integration processes in the future. This analysis allows to predict the medium- and long-term prospects of integration processes in Latin America. To classify the poles, the author has used factor analysis, comparative approach and statistical methods for processing time series to identify potential leaders. Special contribution of the author is elaboration of a methodology for identification of regional and sub-regional leaders based on quantitative assessment. The author presents the three-factor model of regional leadership: based on the resource potential (economics, demography and territory), military power (defence expenditures and size of armed forces), and leadership ambitions (political will).

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