Chinese Factor in Changing Geopolitical Reality (1991–2022)

Li Nin PhD in History Post-graduate student, Department of Theory and History of International Relations, Russian People’s Friendship University 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6 chinailikeyou@gmail.com

Introduction

The relevance of the research topic is due to two factors:

1.                 A departure from the unipolar world order led by the United States and the countries of the collective West;

2. The growing influence of the PRC in the international arena.

The chronological framework of the study covers the period 1991-2022. The lower limit of the study is due to the end of the Cold War and the defeat of the Soviet Union in it, which led to the collapse of the USSR and the destabilization of the situation in the entire post-Soviet space. The upper limit of the study is due to the key turn of the division of the world community into the countries of the "collective West" and the "collective non-West", the reason for which was the beginning of a special military operation of Russia on the territory of Ukraine.

The object of the study is the change in the geopolitical conjuncture.

The subject of the study is the factor of the People's Republic of China in the changing geopolitical reality since the end of the Cold War.

The purpose of the study is to determine the role of the PRC in changing the international world order.

To achieve the previously designated goal , a number of main tasks are set:

1.                 To identify the reasons for the defeat of the USSR in the Cold War and its collapse;

2.                 Analyze the consequences of the collapse of the USSR;

3.                 Identify the reasons for China's growth in the international arena;

4.                 To characterize the methods, the implementation of which led to the growth of the PRC;

5. Consider the factor of the PRC in the changing geopolitical conjuncture.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is based on the theory of political realism, which implies the constant struggle of states, which are the main players in the international arena, for their own national interests.

The source base of the research includes journalistic and statistical sources in Russian and English. The object of the study has been sufficiently studied by both Russian and foreign authors, which cannot be said about the subject of the study.

The scientific novelty of this work lies in determining the factor of the PRC in the changing geopolitical conjuncture in the context of the growth of the economic, industrial and technological growth of the PRC, which entailed the political recognition of the Celestial Empire.

The end of the Cold War and the growing influence of the United States in the new geopolitical realities

The Second World War, which claimed the lives of more than 70 million people around the world, united a number of states that were previously unable to unite in opposition to a common enemy: the USSR, the USA and Great Britain. However, after the end of the war and the confident victory of the anti-Hitler coalition in September 1945, relations between the former allies deteriorated sharply: the issue of world reconstruction and the division of spheres of influence came on the agenda due to differences in the economic, political and ideological structure of states.

The previously designated confrontation was called the "Cold War", a distinctive feature of this confrontation was the economic, political, military and ideological rivalry between the two superpowers represented by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America. One of the most important distinguishing features of the Cold War was the block division of states: a block of Western states led by the United States (capitalist) and a socialist bloc led by the USSR ^[1]. 

Throughout the entire period of the Cold War, both the USSR and the United States were preparing for a new military conflict between the two superpowers, therefore they sought to increase their military potential, and subsequently this policy of both sides of the confrontation was called the "arms race". Such logistical preparation of both superpowers was due both to the desire for victory in the event of a military conflict, and to the desire to prevent a clash. At first glance, the absurd position of the USSR and the United States did not really allow either side of the Cold War to start an open confrontation with each other because of the so-called "mutual assured destruction (English: mutual assured destruction - MAD)" ^[2]. Both sides of the conflict feared the beginning of an open phase of military confrontation because of the "non-zero sum game" - neither side would win, which calls into question the expediency of starting an active phase of confrontation ^[3].

Both superpowers, having accumulated significant military, scientific and industrial potential, were ready to confront each other on the battlefield, but this was not destined to happen: in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed for a number of reasons, among which we can highlight the protracted economic crisis, the crisis of ideology, the voluntarism of the political elites of the USSR, the growth of nationalism in the republics, "perestroika" ^[4].   

At the same time, the People's Republic of China had no political and economic opportunity to resist the United States, as indicated by a number of objective indicators:

1.                 The political factor.

The young Republic was in political isolation by the states of the Western bloc under the leadership of the United States, having been formed in 1949, it received recognition in the international arena only in 1971, when it was admitted to the UN Security Council as a permanent member instead of the Republic of China on the island. Taiwan in accordance with UN General Assembly Resolution No. 2758 ^[5]. Moreover, the emerging confrontations around fr. Taiwan has repeatedly complicated China's relations with Western countries: this conflict arose after the end of the civil war in China, which marked the rise to power of the Communist Party and the flight of representatives of the Kuomintang to the island. Taiwan. De jure, the Republic of China, located on the previously designated island, is recognized as a sovereign state by only a small part of the States, but de facto the United States of America has repeatedly carried out high-level political visits, provided financial and military assistance to Taiwan since the middle of the XX century. Such a policy of the United States led to the emergence of crisis situations in the waters of the Taiwan Strait in 1954-1955 and 1995-1996. Subsequently, the Taiwan issue repeatedly arose in the international arena, cooling relations between the United States and China.

2.                 The economic factor.

The People's Republic of China, having won a devastating civil war, systematically began to restore the destroyed economy through collectivization and industrialization. A striking example of such a policy can be considered the so-called "Big Leap", which was Mao Zedong's political and economic campaign for the industrial and economic development of the country, but the results were not so positive: famine, economic decline, human casualties. The next step of the PRC to restore the material base of the state was the "Cultural Revolution", which consisted in the fight against the "counter-revolution" in the PRC, this policy was implemented in 1966-1976 and led to a split in the CPC (Communist Party of China), significant losses in human and cultural-historical resources. As you can see, since the formation of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the young Republic has repeatedly been subjected to both internal and external pressure, which did not allow to develop the material and technical base of the state to any extent.

However, unlike the Soviet Union, the leadership of the People's Republic of China realized in advance the need for modernization and reformation of the state, which made it possible to achieve significant economic and political growth indicators, which will be touched upon in the work later, and to keep the state united.  

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the United States gained unlimited power around the globe, expressed in significant economic growth due to the reduction of arms costs, the expansion of the NATO alliance (Eng. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization) to the borders of the Russian Federation on the territory of the member countries of the ATS (Warsaw Pact Organization) and the former republics of the USSR.

1.                 The economic growth of the United States in comparison with the countries of the former USSR and China.

The economic indicators of the USA and the USSR at the dawn of the latter's existence (in 1990) were already incomparable: The US GDP in 1990 was about 6.16 billion US dollars ^[6], while the USSR GDP for the same time period is estimated at about 1 billion US dollars ^[7]. The economy of the still unified socialist state was inferior to the American one by more than 6 times.

After the collapse of the USSR, a protracted economic, political, social, demographic and military crisis began in the former Soviet republics. The economic decline of parts of the previously unified state turned out to be significant:

A.               The GDP of the Russian Federation in 1991 was 517.9 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 196.9 billion US dollars (a drop of 72%) ^[8];

B.               Ukraine's GDP in 1991 was 77.3 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 31.5 billion US dollars (a drop of 59%) ^[9];

C.               The GDP of Belarus in 1991 was 18 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 12.1 billion US dollars (a drop of 32%) ^[10];

D.               Kazakhstan's GDP in 1991 amounted to 24.9 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 16.8 billion US dollars (a drop of 32%) ^[11];

E.                Uzbekistan's GDP in 1991 was 13.6 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 17 billion US dollars (an increase of 25%) ^[12];

F.                Tajikistan's GDP in 1991 was 2.5 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 1 billion US dollars (a drop of 60%) ^[13];

G.               Kyrgyzstan's GDP in 1991 was 2.5 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 1.2 billion US dollars (a drop of 52%) ^[14];

H.               Turkmenistan's GDP in 1991 was 3.2 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 2.4 billion US dollars (a drop of 25%) ^[15];

I.                  Armenia's GDP in 1991 was 2 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 1.8 billion US dollars (a drop of 10%) ^[16];

J.                  Georgia's GDP in 1991 was 6.3 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 2.8 billion US dollars (a drop of 55%) ^[17];

K.               Azerbaijan's GDP in 1991 amounted to 5.3 billion US dollars, in 1999 – 4.5 billion US dollars (a drop of 15%) ^[18].

The economic situation of the former Soviet republics has mostly deteriorated since they gained independence, at the same time, the United States has increased its economic power from 6.16 billion US dollars in 1991 to 9.63 billion US dollars in 1999.^[19]

In accordance with the previously cited data of the World Bank (Eng. The World Bank), the United States, being ahead of the Soviet Union in terms of economic growth, was also significantly ahead of the former Soviet republics and, most importantly, the Russian Federation, the successor of the USSR, which did not allow any part of the previously unified socialist state to claim world or regional domination. The protracted economic crisis, aggravated by the growth of crime, fighting and terrorist activity, "disarmed" the Russian Federation: the economic recession, which led to disillusionment with the ideas of socialism, led to defeat in the Cold War, the destruction of the socialist bloc and the abandonment of socialist allies in the person of Cuba and the DPRK. Moreover, in the era of post-Soviet capitalism, the Russian Federation began a systematic rapprochement with the countries of the collective West and the United States, as exemplified by the repeated visits of the first President of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, to the United States, the withdrawal of the operational and strategic unification of the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the territory of already united Germany, which ended on 31.08.1994 ^[20], the signing in 1997. The Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, which developed into the creation of the Russia-NATO Council in 2002 ^[21], the entry of the Russian Federation into the G8 (English Group of Eight) in 1998 ^[22].  

At the same time, the PRC, implementing Deng Xiaoping's economic and political program, combines the features of socialism and capitalism in China, which simultaneously contributes to attracting foreign investment and adopting foreign experience in conducting economic activities of the state. Deng Xiaoping's policy resulted in significant economic growth, expressed in GDP growth, improving the standard of living of citizens, and reducing poverty in the country. For example, China's GDP in the period 1978-1991 increased from 149.5 billion US dollars to 383.3 billion US dollars ^[23], China's GDP growth has not acquired negative values since 1978, reaching its peak of 15.2% in 1984 ^[24]

Thus, by the time of the collapse of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, the economic dominance of the United States had acquired its final form: the main geopolitical rival was outgrowing, the economy of the states that were previously part of the USSR was in decline, the PRC did not pose a serious threat due to its developing economy.

2. The growth of US military influence in the context of the expansion of the NATO alliance.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the military-political bloc of the ATS, the military confrontation between the two sides of the Cold War was over, the army of the Russian Federation in the first years of its existence was largely inferior to the Soviet one, the threat to the United States was only the stock of nuclear weapons left after the collapse of the USSR.

Due to the formation of a military-political vacuum in Europe, the states that were previously part of the Warsaw Pact Organization began to gradually join the NATO alliance, bringing the latter's borders closer to the Russian Federation. After 1991 , the following European states joined NATO:

1. Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland – in 1999;

2. Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia – in 2004;

3. Albania and Croatia – in 2009;

4. Montenegro – in 2017;

5.                 North Macedonia – in 2020;

6. Finland – in 2023 ^[25].

Moreover, the states that were previously union republics within the USSR also sought cooperation with the Alliance: NATO activities in Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Moldova, indirect cooperation of Azerbaijan with NATO member Turkey, etc.

 Based on all of the above, it can be concluded that after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR, the United States of America gained significant economic, political and military opportunities to establish a unipolar world order, expressed in significant economic superiority over other states, incommensurable military power accumulated during the Cold War and modernized after its end by expanding the NATO alliance for most of the countries of Europe ^[26].

Strengthening the position of the People's Republic of China in the international arena

As previously indicated, since Deng Xiaoping came to power in China and the beginning of the implementation of the policy of openness towards Western countries, China has developed its economy at a previously unprecedented pace: in the period 1991-2001. China's GDP grew from 383.3 billion US dollars to 1.3 trillion US dollars (an increase of more than 3 times) ^[27]. The volume of investments in the Chinese economy by foreign companies increased: in 1993, the volume of foreign investments in the Chinese economy amounted to about 6.2% of China's GDP ^[28].

In parallel with the growth of the economy, China also increased its production capacity, accumulating on its territory the creation of most of the industrial products, ranging from mass-consumption products to high-tech products. At the moment, the People's Republic of China is a leader in the production of many types of goods of varying degrees of complexity, while the volume of such industrial production increased more than 8 times from 2004 to 2022, however, the contribution of China's industrial production to the country's GDP decreased 32% to 27.7% within the previously specified time period ^[29].

The technological superiority of the PRC over the countries of the collective West, expressed in the rapid growth of the "high tech" industry in China, has generated a new round of confrontation with the countries producing high-tech products: Japan, the Republic of Korea and the United States. Chinese IT giants represented by Tencent, Alibaba Group, Huawei, BYD, etc. with the passage of time and the growth of capitalization, they began to displace long-standing players in the global high-tech arena. This process: the growing influence of the Chinese IT sector in the world – led to the beginning of a "trade war" between the United States and China, expressed in the restriction of China's access to high-tech components and developments suitable for the development of the previously mentioned industry inside China. Such groups of industrial goods as solar panels, smartphones, microprocessors and much more have fallen under the US restrictions. The most obvious example of the implementation of the previously mentioned "trade war" by the United States was the sanctions against the Chinese IT company Huawei, expressed in the technological "blockade" of the company, which implied the refusal of Western IT giants represented by Google, ARM, Intel and Qualcomm from cooperation with Huawei. Such a policy led to a decrease in the capitalization of the company, a reduction in funding for the development of its own Kirin microprocessors, a refusal to supply the company with microprocessors with support for 5G networks, but Huawei managed to cope with the sanctions pressure by entering new markets, including Russian, creating a subsidiary company "Honor", to which sanctions did not apply, localization of high-tech production at its own facilities by analogy with South Korean Samsung. Moreover, the Chinese company was able to become one of the leaders of the global mobile 5G network industry, overtaking such giants as AT&T and Qualcomm ^[30].

In parallel with the growing influence of the PRC on world politics and the economy and the deterioration of relations with the United States, the People's Republic of China in 2001, with the assistance of the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the main objectives of which were:

1.                 Strengthening mutual trust, friendship and good-neighborliness between Member States;

2.                 Promoting [between States] effective cooperation in the political, trade, economic, scientific, technical and cultural fields…;

3.                 Joint provision and maintenance of peace, security and stability in the region;

4.                 Progress towards the establishment of a democratic, just and rational new international political and economic order ^[31].

The next round of development of China's international cooperation was the creation of the BRICS economic association (BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). This organization was established in 2006 as an association of the fastest developing countries in the world with significant economic potential. In parallel with the growing influence of BRICS on world trade, more and more countries and organizations are seeking to join the association. In addition to the main 5 members, the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in 2023 will be attended by representatives of more than 30 countries of the world, including significant regional players represented by Iran and Argentina. The main vector of BRICS activity at the moment is the development of trade within the association, a departure from the use of the dollar both in mutual settlements and in lending with the help of the BRICS bank ^[32].

Two significant facts speak about the success of the BRICS activities:

1. An increase in the number of States wishing to join the organization. The number of countries participating in the BRICS Summit in 2023 shows that the powers are aimed at comprehensive cooperation with the BRICS, despite the aggressive policy of the countries of the collective West ^[33];

2.                 Attention from the UN: at the previously mentioned BRICS summit in 2023, the presence of a United Nations delegation headed by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was noted ^[34].  

The next step in relation to the growth of international influence was the initiative "One Belt, One Road" (eng. One Belt One Road - OBOR), which consists in creating two trade routes: the land "Economic Belt of the Silk Road" and the sea "Sea Route of the XXI century". The previously mentioned trade routes should allow connecting China with the countries of Europe and the Middle East by land corridor and with the countries of Europe, Africa and the Asia–Pacific region by sea corridor. At the time of 2021, 140 States and 31 international organizations are participating in the Belt and Road initiative ^[35].

One of the main goals of the creation of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative is to increase the economic influence of the People's Republic of China around the world and primarily in the developed countries of Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia by reducing the cost of transporting goods produced in the Middle Kingdom, dedolorization and increasing the use of the national currency of the People's Republic of China.

The Belt and Road initiative will allow the PRC to oust Western players from key markets for goods, thus developing its own economic potential and exerting significant political pressure on states whose economy will depend on the PRC's economy ^[36].

Conclusion

Summing up all of the above, we can conclude that:

The main reasons for the defeat of the USSR in the Cold War were not the weakness of the armed forces or the weak production base of the economy, but the protracted economic crisis, the crisis of ideology, the voluntarism of the political elites of the USSR, the growth of nationalism in the republics, "perestroika". The Soviet Union was defeated not on the battlefield in a new global war, the preparation for which was conducted by both sides during the Cold War, but inside the state itself, losing ideologically and politically.

The key consequences of the defeat of the USSR in the Cold War and, consequently, the collapse of the state can be considered a protracted economic, political, ideological, demographic and military crisis in most of the former Soviet republics. Moreover, in the international arena, the collapse of the Soviet Union summed up the confrontation between the United States and the USSR, thereby putting the United States on the pedestal of world hegemony, consisting in sharp economic growth due to the release of significant resources from the military sphere, the political growth of the United States on the world stage and the military development of the United States and its allies in the face of NATO, which is clearly seen in the example expansion of the NATO alliance to the territory of Eastern European countries ^[37].

The key reasons for the growth of the PRC's influence in the international arena can be considered Deng Xiaoping's policy, which consisted in a combination of features of socialism and capitalism, which attracted foreign investment in the PRC's economy and allowed to adopt Western economic experience. The result of this policy was a significant economic growth of the People's Republic of China, a reduction in poverty in the country. Moreover, China has accumulated significant production capacities on its territory, becoming the so-called "world factory", which allowed the Celestial Empire to continue to increase its economic indicators, reaching 1.3 trillion US dollars of GDP in 2001.

Among the key methods that have made it possible to achieve such a significant growth of the PRC, it is possible to single out the conduct of an economic policy of "openness", the accumulation of production capacities on its territory, the development of the "high tech" industry. Moreover, it is worth mentioning the creation of international organizations and initiatives that allowed the PRC to increase its economic and political presence in other states: Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS (BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), "One Belt, One Road" (Eng. One Belt One Road - OBOR).

Thus, the factor of the PRC in the changing geopolitical conjuncture lies in the position of an economic and technological pioneer of the reconstruction of the world arena, in which the United States and its allies play a dominant role ^[38]. The PRC, possessing significant economic and technological resources, exerts influence on states that were previously part of the "collective West" bloc, economic and political projects and organizations that include the PRC as one of the leading actors, gaining increasing influence in the world, are being taken out of the "shadow" of the collective non-Western state ^[39], which include Russia, Brazil, Iran, India, etc.