DOI: 10.7256/2454-0595.2023.4.43666
EDN: VBXQFC
Received:
29-07-2023
Published:
09-08-2023
Abstract:
The article presents the results of the analysis of the fundamental documents of the migration policy of the Russian Federation of the last 30 years, the purpose of which was to identify changes in the fundamental approaches of the authorities in relation to migration and the corresponding legal and institutional changes. An array of normative legal acts of the Russian Federation from 1989 to 2023 (about 100 documents), concepts of migration policy, materials of speeches by the Head of State, meetings of various interdepartmental commissions and high-level profile working groups were used as sources. The study used comparative legal analysis; content analysis; synchronous analysis; general logical approaches and methods. The obtained results allowed us to identify seven stages of the evolution of the Russian migration policy. The boundaries in which the "fluctuation of the course" of migration policy occurs are determined. It is shown that the priorities that the migration policy should correspond to are equally significant, but competing, which leads to inconsistency of the measures taken. It is noted that in recent years, migration policy has been increasingly using adaptive management technologies, which contains risks for long-term goal-setting. The definition of the concept "limits of policy variability" is given. It is concluded that it is necessary to develop a long-term Strategy of the state migration policy, which will take into account the systemic nature of the phenomenon of migration and the multilevel effects that arise as a result of the impact on the migration situation.
Keywords:
Migration policy, Migration flow, Net migration rate, Demographic crisis, Labor market, Labor migration, Migrant, Digitalization, Adaptive management, Russia
This article is automatically translated.
Introduction The Russian Federation is one of the five leading countries, both in terms of the number of migrants and the number of emigrants [1]. As of 2023, the net migration rate for Russia is 0.621 per 1000 people, which is 16.98% lower than in 2022 and almost three times less than in 2016 [Note: Formula N = (I-E) / M x 1000, where N is the net migration coefficient, I is the number of immigrants who arrived in the country; E is the number of emigrants who left the country; M is the average annual population of the country. Allows you to assess the impact of migration on the population of the country]. Despite the decrease in the net migration rate, especially in the years after the outbreak of the pandemic (see Table 1), the Russian Federation remains a country with an active migration situation: the population is gradually growing at the expense of foreign citizens. At the same time, the annual average number of immigrants is approximately equal to or slightly higher than the number of Russian citizens living abroad, and amounts to about 11-12 million people. Table 1. Dynamics of the net migration coefficient in the Russian Federation, 2016-2023 Year | Net migration rate | Reduction of the coefficient in comparison with the previous year, % | 2023 | 0.621 | 16.98 | 2022 | 0.748 | 14.42 | 2021 | 0.874 | 12.69 | 2020 | 1.001 | 11.18 | 2019 | 1.127 |
10.13 | 2018 | 1.254 | 16.57 | 2017 | 1.503 | 14.16 | 2016 | 1.751 | 12.45 | Source: United Nations - World Population Prospects; Russia Net Migration Rate 1950-2023 /Population. URL: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/net-migration Effective management of migration resources is one of the urgent and non–trivial tasks for a modern state, since migration is both one of the important tools for promoting economic development in the conditions of demographic crisis and shortage of labor resources, and a source of risks for socio-political stability. In this context, it is of interest to analyze migration policy documents over a long period of time in order to periodize it (highlight stages that differ in their content) and identify factors that determine the stability and variability of the migration flow management system. Periodization of modern Russian migration policy The source base of the study was an array of legal acts of the Russian Federation from 1989 to 2022 (about 100 documents) – federal laws, decrees and orders of the President of the Russian Federation, resolutions and orders of the Government of the Russian Federation, concepts of migration policy, acts of ministries and departments, as well as materials of speeches by the Head of State, meetings of various interdepartmental commissions and specialized workers high-level groups. The analysis of the sources showed that, since 1989, seven stages of the evolution of migration policy in the Russian Federation can be distinguished, the criterion for which is the change in priorities in relation to migration authorities (see Table 2). Each stage has its own peculiarities in approaches to the goals and objectives of migration policy. And changing approaches, more precisely, clarifying the emphasis in priorities, entails changes of a legal and institutional nature, since appropriate mechanisms are needed to implement the political decisions taken. We are talking about the adoption of new or clarification of existing laws and other regulatory legal acts, the creation or reorganization of specialized bodies, the development of information and other digital systems, various standards and rules. Table 2. Stages in changing the approaches of public authorities to the goals and objectives of the migration policy of Russia (1989-2022)* Stage | Years |
Content | Implementation mechanisms | I | 1989-1992 | Liberalization of migration policy: encouraging the arrival of compatriots and refugees from the post-Soviet space against the background of increasing emigration of Russians. | The Law of the Russian Federation "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" has been adopted(1). The Federal Migration Service (FMS) of Russia has been established(2) A free movement zone has been created within the CIS(3). The 1951 Geneva Convention on the Status of Refugees has been ratified(4). | II | 1993-2001 | Transition to a moderately tough strategy involving limiting the admission of refugees and internally displaced persons. Reasons: reduction of emigration, growth of immigration. | The Law of the Russian Federation on the State Border(5) and Federal Law on Entry and Exit Procedure(6). The implementation of federal migration programs has begun(7). The state policy regarding compatriots abroad has been formulated (8). | III | 2001-2006 | The tightening of the migration strategy, the transition to the practice of selective selection of partners within the CIS on a bilateral basis. The basis is the doctrine of the relationship between migration control and national security. | The Federal Law "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" has been adopted(9); Federal Law "On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation" (10); Federal Law "On Migration Registration of Foreign Citizens and Stateless Persons in the Russian Federation" (11). The Government of the Russian Federation has received the right to annually set the permissible share of foreign workers in various sectors of the economy. The FMS was transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia(12). A State program has been adopted to assist the voluntary resettlement of compatriots(13).
The Concept of regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation was developed for the first time(14). | IV | 2007-2012 | A return to a moderately strict policy on migration, which has become understood as a tool for solving current socio-economic problems in the context of the demographic crisis and shortage of labor resources. Migration policy priorities: (1) ensuring national security; (2) stabilization and increase in the number of the main population of Russia; (3) assistance in meeting the needs of the national economy in labor, modernization and innovative development. | The Concept of Demographic Policy has been approved(15). A new version of the State Program to assist the Voluntary Resettlement of Compatriots has been adopted(16). The FMS was withdrawn from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia and transferred to the direct jurisdiction of the Government of the Russian Federation(17). A new Concept of Migration Policy of the Russian Federation has been approved(18). | V | 2013-2018 | A return to a rigid version of the migration strategy in the face of growing international sanctions. Due to the high adaptive capacity of migrants, the increase in the number of immigrants is interpreted as a threat. Priorities are protective tendencies, centralization of migration regulation. Migration is an auxiliary tool for solving demographic problems. | The subprogram "External labor migration" (2013-2016) has been partially implemented and prematurely terminated (19). Special regulatory measures (including quotas) have been introduced for employees who are foreign citizens or stateless persons(20). The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation has been adopted(21). The FMS was abolished, and its powers were transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia(22). A new concept of the state migration policy of Russia has been adopted ahead of schedule(23). The powers of the President of the Russian Federation have been expanded in terms of determining foreigners, stateless persons and participants in the State Resettlement Assistance Program who are entitled to obtain Russian citizenship in a simplified manner for humanitarian purposes(24). | VI | 2019- 2022 | An attempt to combine rigid and moderately rigid approaches to migration through digitalization of the migration sphere. The idea is to accelerate the reform of migration regimes and the institution of citizenship in order to improve the efficiency of public services and state control in the field of migration by simplifying procedures and the widespread use of information technology. |
A high-level working group has been established to implement the Concept of State Migration Policy for 2019-2025. (25). The Federal Law "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" regarding simplification of the procedure for admission to citizenship of the Russian Federation of foreign citizens and stateless persons" was adopted (26). | VII | 2022 - n/a | Further search for a balance between the needs of the economy (expansion of labor migration) and national security. The migration sphere is "extremely sensitive for national security, for the stable development of Russia and our society" [2]. Priority support for native speakers of the Russian language, expansion of measures for the adaptation of foreign citizens. Countering the formation of ethnic enclaves. | Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 342 of May 12, 2023 "On Amendments to the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 622 of October 31, 2018" (28) was adopted. | * Note: for the list of sources mentioned in the table and further in the text (numbering in parentheses), see the Appendix at the end of the article. Features of the last stages of migration policy It seems appropriate to address in more detail the last two stages of the adaptation of Russian migration policy to new challenges. Thus, the sixth stage of the next shift in the priorities of the country's migration policy began in 2019 and was associated with serious changes in the external and internal socio-economic and political conditions in which migration flows were regulated. In the spring of 2019, the state authorities, taking into account the critical expert review of the migration situation in the country, declared the need for urgent political decisions. Among the factors that influenced the state's position were negative natural population growth and a sharp decline in net migration [3-5]. Solving the problems of economic growth in conditions of high demographic burden on the able-bodied population and interregional socio-economic imbalances, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the Strategy of Spatial Development of the country(28) and updated the State Program "Employment Promotion"(29). For the first time in the history of Russian migration policy, the Head of State created a high-level working group on the implementation of the Concept of State Migration Policy for 2019-2025. The group included heads of all branches of government of state bodies – from divisions of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation to relevant ministries and departments (30). Such management tools, which unite high-level managers, make it possible to quickly develop, coordinate and make strategic decisions. Formally, the start of the sixth stage was given by the decision of the President of the Russian Federation to accelerate the work of the country's state authorities on reforming migration regimes and the institution of citizenship within the framework of the existing Concept and on the basis of proposals developed by the working group(31). The personal participation of the Head of State became a kind of incentive to accelerate work to eliminate distortions and shortcomings in the migration management system among which the main ones were: (a) inconsistency of migration policy, (b) lack of a transparent (and not corrupt) mechanism for obtaining a residence permit and citizenship, as well as (c) lack of an understandable system of differentiated selection of migrants (26). The proposed campaign was based on the ideas of unification of existing migration rules (primarily to reduce the effects of illegal and hidden temporary labor migration) and a sharp increase in the efficiency of the provision of public services and the implementation of state control in the field of migration due to the rapid and widespread use of information technology. The fundamental possibility of a large-scale digital transformation of the migration sphere is based on such objective circumstances as high rates of digitalization and the presence of positive experience in using an increasing number of digital services in our country. For example, in 2020, the number of registered users on the Unified Portal of Public Services was more than 78 million people (almost 2/3 of all Russian citizens over 14 years old) [6], and in the first half of 2022 exceeded 97.5 million people [7]. In the clarified national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, an important place is occupied by the goal of "digital transformation" - achieving "digital maturity" of key sectors of the economy and social sphere, as well as public administration(32).
According to the recommendations of the high-level working group, over the past years, a new component of the state information infrastructure has been consistently created in the form of a digital platform that contains and processes information about foreign citizens and migration flows and is intended for use by all interested state bodies. Within the framework of such a platform, all issues of registration, issuance and application of a single identification document of a foreign citizen should be resolved, provided that it is registered using biometric identification. It is assumed that geolocation of migrants' personal mobile devices should become an important element of monitoring migration flows in real time. However, at the moment this idea has not yet been implemented. In part, the issues of digital transformation of the migration sphere are solved by using the capabilities of the Public Services portal. For example, already in January 2022, with the help of the new service "Notifications on labor Migrants", employers were able to send electronic notifications to the relevant structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia on various aspects of labor relations with foreign citizens [8]. It seems to be a significant circumstance that in 2020-2022 the topic of labor migration as a resource for economic development entered the political agenda at the federal level. For example, in April 2020, the Agency for Strategic Initiatives publicly proposed to the Government of the Russian Federation a set of measures in the field of labor and employment using the resource of migrant workers. In particular, it was proposed to equate employed migrants with Russian citizens in order for them to receive unemployment benefits and launch procedures for preparing migrants for the emerging markets and for IT infrastructure maintenance markets through the redistribution of funds from the national project "Labor Productivity and employment support" [9]. The interim results of the development of this topic were summed up in July 2020 . The President of the Russian Federation, when he stated that the shortage of workers is becoming a real constraint on Russia's economic growth, and therefore the country needs an influx of migrants, especially those who are carriers of Russian culture. "As for the economy, it is quite obvious that with the development of the economy in Russia, we are already short, and soon it will be very noticeable, there will not be enough workers. This becomes a real, objective constraint on economic growth in the country. This is one of the serious problems," Vladimir Putin said [10]. As of July 2023, the key decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation on the implementation of the List of Instructions of the President of the Russian Federation No. Pr-469 dated March 6, 2020 have been implemented as follows(33) (see Table 3): Table 3. Status of implementation by the Government of the Russian Federation of measures from List of instructions Of the President of the Russian Federation No. Pr-469 dated March 6, 2020 Event (extract from the Plan) | Term | Result | Institute of Citizenship of the Russian Federation. The procedure for the stay (residence) of foreign citizens and stateless persons on the territory of the Russian Federation. Resettlement to the Russian Federation | Preparation of a draft of a new version of the Federal Law "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" based on proposals to reform the institute of citizenship of the Russian Federation | I quarter 2022 | Excluded | Preparation of proposals to the draft regulatory legal act in the field of migration, (...) containing formulations of legal norms, including: - fundamentals of the formation and maintenance of an information system; - rules for foreign citizens to carry out labor, entrepreneurial, investment and other types of activities; - mechanisms for regulating the labor market of foreign workers; - mechanisms of medical examination of foreign citizens and stateless persons; - mechanisms for checking the level of proficiency of foreign citizens in the Russian language, knowledge of the basics of legislation and the history of Russia;
- mechanisms for monitoring compliance with temporary restrictions on the rights of foreign citizens | II quarter 2021 | The proposals of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Labor, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Justice of Russia have been sent to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia | Preparation of a draft regulatory legal act in the field of migration | IV quarter 2021 | The draft federal law "On the conditions of entry (exit) and stay (residence) in the Russian Federation of foreign citizens and stateless persons" has been submitted to the Government of the Russian Federation (prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, project ID 02/04/03-21/00113698; not included in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, text as of 03.09.2021) | Improvement of legislation regulating the procedure for attracting foreign citizens to work in the territory of the Russian Federation as highly qualified specialists | IV quarter 2020 | Order of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia dated 01.08.2020 No. 541 (ed. dated 02.03.2021) "On Approval of the Administrative Regulations of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation on the Provision of State Services for the Issuance of Permits for the Recruitment and Use of Foreign Workers, as well as Work Permits to Foreign Citizens and stateless Persons" (Registered with the Ministry of Justice of Russia 01.09.2020 No. 59604) | Updating the lists of professions (specialties, positions) of foreign citizens - qualified specialists who are employed in their existing profession (specialty), for which quotas for issuing work permits to foreign citizens arriving in the Russian Federation on the basis of a visa do not apply, as well as these citizens who are eligible for admission to citizenship of the Russian Federation in simplified procedure | IV quarter 2021 | Order of the Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation No. 58n dated 02/14/2022 "On approval of the list of professions (specialties, positions) of foreign citizens - qualified specialists employed in their existing profession (specialty), for which quotas for issuing work permits to foreign citizens arriving in the Russian Federation on the basis of a visa do not apply" (Registered with the Ministry of Justice Russia 18.03.2022 No. 67787) | Establishment of the permissible share of foreign workers employed in various sectors of the economy by economic entities operating in the territory of the Russian Federation | annually |
Federal Law No. 115-FZ of 25.07.2002 (as amended on 13.06.2023) "On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation"; - (Letter) Ministry of Labor of Russia dated 07.10.2022 No. 16-4/10/B-13610 (On the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 03.10.2022 No. 1751) | Improvement of legislation in terms of granting foreign citizens the right to obtain a residence permit on economic grounds (special qualifications, investment) | IV quarter 2020 | Draft Federal Law "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation" regarding the establishment of a simplified procedure for issuing a residence permit to foreign Investors in the Russian Federation No. 1160385-7 (submitted by the Government of the Russian Federation to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on 26.10.2021, adopted in the first reading on 16.12.2021, 14.03.2023 rejected in the second reading) | Law and order and security | Preparation of proposals on the consolidation in the criminal legislation of the Russian Federation of measures related to the forced expulsion of foreign citizens and stateless persons outside the Russian Federation | III quarter 2020 | Report of the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation to the Government of the Russian Federation | Amendments to the criminal and criminal procedure legislation of the Russian Federation regarding the implementation of the institution of transferring the execution of a non-custodial sentence in respect of a person convicted by a court of the Russian Federation for execution in the State of which he is a citizen, as well as for transferring the execution of a non-custodial sentence in respect of a citizen Of the Russian Federation, convicted by a court of a foreign State, for execution in the Russian Federation | IV quarter 2021 | Draft Federal Law "On Amendments to the Criminal Procedure Code of the Russian Federation regarding the transfer of execution of non-custodial sentences, as well as the application of a suspended sentence or postponement of serving a sentence" (prepared by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation, Project ID 01/05/09-21/00120018, ed. before entering into the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the text as of the date of summing up the results of the public discussion is 21 .09.2021.) | Ratification of the Convention of the Member States of the Commonwealth of Independent States on the Transfer of Execution of Non-Custodial Sentences | II quarter 2022 |
The Convention was signed by the President of the Russian Federation on 11.10.2019, but not ratified | Amendments to the legislation of the Russian Federation providing for fingerprint registration and medical examination of foreign citizens arriving on the territory of the Russian Federation on a visa-free basis, including citizens of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union | III quarter 2020 | Federal Law No. 274-FZ of 01.07.2021 "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation" and the Federal Law "On State Fingerprint Registration in the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2021. No. 27 (Part I). Article 5102 | Information, communication and technical support | Preparation of a strategy for integrated informatization of state management of migration processes | I quarter 2021 | There is no data on the description of the technical requirements and conditions for the creation of the state information infrastructure necessary to ensure the functioning of the created migration rules, electronic services and control mechanisms (according to media reports, the Government of the Russian Federation has developed a Strategy for integrated informatization of state management of migration processes [11]) | Development of a system project for the infrastructure of registration, issuance and application of an identification document of a foreign citizen | II quarter 2021 | The system project was approved by the Presidium of the Government Commission on Digital Development, the Use of Information Technologies to improve the quality of life and business conditions (paragraph 1 of the Absentee Voting Protocol No. 60 of 12/28/2022) | Creation of a state system of planning and management of migration processes, ensuring the alignment of migration policy with the main directions of the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, socio-economic and investment needs of the subjects of the Russian Federation | IV quarter 2021 | Elements [12] of a unified migration management system have been created: together with the Eurasian Development Bank, the mobile application "Work in the EAEU" is being gradually put into operation;
Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 1352 of 29.07.2022 (ed. of 24.03.2023) was adopted "On grant support for talented foreign citizens and stateless persons studying in Russian organizations engaged in educational activities on the territory of the Russian Federation" (34). | Conducting a study of public opinion on migration processes in the Russian Federation | III sq . annually | Longitudinal surveys of the FSO of Russia [13]; not available in the public domain | Conducting a sociological study on the problems of interethnic and interfaith relations | III sq . annually | Departmental statistics of the Federal Tax Service of Russia; not publicly available | Adaptation of foreign citizens. Forced migration. Development of international cooperation in the field of migration | Improving the system of state testing in Russian as a foreign language, including through updating the current regulatory framework, as well as its promotion abroad | IV quarter 2020 | Methodological recommendations for public authorities of the subjects of the Russian Federation and local self-government bodies on topical issues of implementing state national policy, promoting social and cultural adaptation and integration of foreign citizens in the Russian Federation, as well as the prevention of extremism with approximate algorithms of actions to eliminate conflict situations and their consequences (approved by Order of the Federal Administrative Service of Russia dated 06.08.2020 No. 114) | Development of a draft federal law regulating the procedure for granting asylum in the Russian Federation | IV quarter 2022 | The draft federal law "On Granting Asylum in the Territory of the Russian Federation" was prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia (Project ID 01/05/01-22/00124403, not included in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, text as of 01/25/2022); The draft federal law "On the procedure for granting political asylum by the Russian Federation" No. 85017-8 was submitted on 10.03.2022 by a group of deputies (responsible for consideration – the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots) – consideration has been postponed several times, the State Duma bill has not been considered
| Preparation of proposals on concluding international treaties of the Russian Federation, promoting the Russian agenda at the international level, as well as on expanding the participation of the Russian Federation in international events in the field of migration, including as a host (chair) the party or the organizer | III sq . annually | No data available (the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia must submit a report to the Government of the Russian Federation) | The current, seventh stage of the development of migration policy is characterized by a combination of tough public rhetoric in defense of national interests and the rule of law against risks arising from the influx of migrants (in particular, we are talking about attempts to "shake up" interethnic stability in Russia through migration channels [14]), with a pragmatic reduction of barriers to legal labor migration and the creation of conditions for increasing "the scale of organized attraction of foreign citizens to work in the territory of the Russian Federation" (27). A number of high-level events and decisions in the field of migration policy can be cited as arguments in support of such a characteristic. Thus, in October 2022, at a meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin instructed to re-adjust the current Concept of state migration policy in order to take into account "new global and regional factors affecting the migration sphere", to reflect "the whole complex of both existing and potential challenges" [2]. Among the new factors: an increase in the migration outflow of the population of the Russian Federation abroad in 2022; an increase in the same year by a third (after the relaxation of quarantine restrictions) in the number of foreigners arriving in Russia for employment, as well as a large flow of refugees (in particular, we are talking about about 5 million residents of Donbass and south-eastern regions Ukraine) [15]. In March 2023, following the results of the Board of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, a special interdepartmental working group was created to develop proposals aimed at countering the risks of migration for public order. These proposals should contribute to the development of a comprehensive system of socio-cultural adaptation of foreign citizens. In May 2023, at a meeting of the Council on Interethnic Relations, the Head of State, commenting on the need to adjust the Strategy of state National Policy in order to confront new challenges and threats that arise, including due to migration, which creates acute problems for interethnic relations in the country, nevertheless positively assessed the importance of foreign labor. He stressed that Russia is open "for specialists who are necessary for the domestic economy, ... first of all for our compatriots, people close in culture, language, religion" [14]. Adaptive nature of migration policy A meaningful analysis of the sources showed that modern Russian migration policy is constantly adapting to external and internal challenges. However, this variability has its limits, which are set by two priorities that are equally significant (in terms of their importance and value) for the national interests of the country. These equally important priorities are the interests of national security and the interests of stimulating economic development in conditions of labor shortage and demographic crisis. Figure 1 schematically shows how the conceptual approaches of migration policy fluctuated at different stages between two equally significant poles of interests (priorities). Figure 1. "Fluctuations in the course" of migration policy Synchronous analysis of changes in the net migration coefficient and migration policy priorities is of interest (see Table 3 and Figure 2). It seems that the hypothesis that the "tightening" or "liberalization" of the migration policy course causes a corresponding response in the increase or decrease of migration flows is not sufficiently confirmed. If at the initial stages the net migration coefficient increased with some delay following the liberalization of migration policy and decreased after the tightening of the exchange rate, then since 2009 it has been steadily falling, despite the transition to a moderately rigid exchange rate and measures to stimulate legal labor migration. Table 3. Change in the net migration coefficient against the background of exchange rate fluctuations Migration Policy of the Russian Federation (1989-2023) Only in 2020-2023, the migration balance for the period decreased by 38%, and the total average annual rate of change (GAGR) of the net migration coefficient was: – 11.3% (negative rates) (see Figure 2). Figure 2. Change in the net migration coefficient (1990-2022)
It should be noted that over the past 8 years, the number of applications from the subjects of the Russian Federation for attracting foreign workers has more than halved. If we exclude the impact of restrictions on cross-border movements due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is still no clear answer to the question whether the decline in interest in attracting foreign workers is evidence of an improvement in the labor situation in regional labor markets, or it reflects the unwillingness of regional authorities to "complicate their lives" due to the fact that the increase in the number of foreign the indicator of the level of social tension in the labor market worsens workers(35). Figure 3. Changes in the needs of the subjects of the Russian Federation for foreign workers (2015-2023), people. Obviously, the proposals of the high-level working group (2020) have brought "fresh notes" to the current discourse of migration policy (against the background of the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic), in particular, due to the idea of systematically limiting procedures that are inherently redundant, reducing the types of residence documents and shifting the focus from the specifics of possible migrant activities to the fact and conditions of their stay in Russia. Since that time, the new model of migration management has been actively promoted by the Head of State, constantly emphasizing the need to "promptly debug all administrative procedures related to migration, as much as possible translate them into a "figure", make them understandable, clear and accessible" [16]. However, the idea of an accelerated breakthrough in the management of migration flows through the introduction of digital services, the centralization of accounting procedures and the organization of total control on this basis is not being implemented as quickly as planned. On the one hand, due to the fact that migration has "law enforcement" and "economic" components, the traditional interdepartmental disunity persists, which the Head of State insists on overcoming: "it is very important that the Government, its socio-economic bloc and law enforcement agencies here have common approaches, a common understanding of the results of the work that is necessary achieve" [16]. It is clear that stable economic development is impossible without reliable provision of national security interests, and without a steadily developing modern economy and demographic well-being, the state of national security is also at risk. However, in practice, measures that prevent threats from the influx of immigrants for socio-political stability conflict with measures aimed at solving problems with a shortage of labor resources by attracting foreign workers. On the other hand, the digital transformation of the migration sphere is a complex and expensive project [17], the terms of implementation of which are objectively lengthened due to the lack of unified conceptual approaches, difficulties in integrating existing services and databases [18], as well as technical problems due to the influence of Western sanctions. For example, in early July 2023, the Ministry of Finance of Russia decided to retrofit the Mir migration and registration system with equipment based on Russian processors [19]. In addition, the qualitative transition is slowed down by the orientation in the implementation of migration policy to purely administrative methods of monitoring and forecasting, the localization of problems by "departmental apartments", the use of purely bureaucratic coordination procedures, and the underdevelopment, ultimately, of inclusive political and economic institutions [20]. Conclusions An analysis of the latest stages of migration regulation development shows that Russian migration management policy is becoming more and more adaptive. Adaptive management is the process of decision-making in conditions of uncertainty by the method of "trial and error" (with a constant assessment of the consequences). All over the world, such management technologies, including in the field of migration, have become especially actively implemented under the influence of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the situation changed significantly in a very short time in the absence of reliable forecasts and benchmarks [21]. Since 1989, the course of Russian migration policy has fluctuated in a corridor defined by two equally valuable, equally significant priorities: the interests of national security and the interests of economic development. In practice, the measures that make it possible to ensure these priorities are implemented by different management units (law enforcement and socio-economic) and compete with each other. As a result, the Russian migration policy is characterized by inconsistency and is "twice adaptive". Firstly, the changes depend on a shift in the balance in strategic approaches to migration (whether the ideas that migration is an unconditional threat come out in the first place, or ideas about migration as a resource for solving current economic problems in conditions of labor shortage begin to dominate). Secondly, migration policy adapts to the impact of new, sometimes unexpected challenges of the external environment (pandemic, SVO, sanctions, etc.). Chronological analysis shows an increase in the speed of changes in migration regulation (typical examples are abrupt changes under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of a special military operation and international sanctions), which makes the question relevant: what are the limits of the variability of migration policy? (Under the limits of policy variability, it is advisable to understand its ability to adapt to unexpected strong challenges of the external environment without compromising its essential, strategic goals). Currently, there are no studies that allow us to understand how rapid (by historical standards) fluctuations in the course of migration policy affect socio-economic realities. However, without this kind of work, it is difficult to assess the limits of adaptability of migration policy. This is an important story, because in the face of unexpected external challenges, migration policy may lose its purpose and subjectivity, become a tool for solving local problems. For example, during the pandemic, migration regulation aimed at limiting cross-border and intra-country movements played a subordinate role for several years, solving rather sanitary problems of States, and not economic ones. It is necessary to evaluate and calculate what consequences this has led to. The relationship between the dynamics of changing approaches to the tasks of migration policy and the socio-economic effects of these changes requires special research.
In general, the processes of pragmatization and rationalization of migration policy currently taking place, with the constant declaration of values of commitment to the ideas of development and protection of the "civilizational code" of the country, are certainly positive. However, the current work on improving the mechanisms for managing migration flows does not exclude the search for answers to the question of the long-term goals of such activities. The formation of a "migration situation" that contributes to solving problems in the field of socio-economic, spatial and demographic development of the country, improving the quality of life of its population, ensuring the security of the state"formally cannot be the ultimate goal, since, according to the Concept, migration policy "is an auxiliary tool for solving demographic problems and related economic problems" (see paragraphs 14 and 15 of the Concept (23)). It is clear that in any scenario of socio-economic development, assuming sustainable economic growth not lower than the global average, it is necessary to involve new growth factors. In turn, this requires structural changes in the directions of increasing the quality of human capital and maximizing the contribution of people's knowledge to development, a technological breakthrough to enter new markets and expanding the capacity of the state to quickly change the institutional conditions of development [22-23]. However, in the context of an objective decline in economic activity in the world, including under the influence of the COVID19 pandemic, global approaches to managing migration flows are being replaced by regionalization processes associated with the desire of states to use the migration resource to solve problems of national development. In this context, an effective migration policy is derived from a clear formulation of national development goals and methods of achieving them. At the moment, conceptual attempts to find the place and role, first of all, of labor migration in the development strategy of the new Russia are still quite schematic and formal. This is because all the editions of the national Concept of Migration Policy, despite the improvement, in their status are not strategic planning documents, but a kind of short-term "road maps" of current migration regulation. Experts have repeatedly noted that, unlike strategies, the concept, in its essence, is a creative document containing a consistent presentation of a political plan and a system of views on solving a significant social problem, and does not involve programmatic measures [24]. This position is also confirmed by the fact that the federal law on strategic planning, which contains an exhaustive list of strategic planning documents, does not contain acts called "concept"(36). It seems that in order to improve the efficiency of migration management, the Russian Federation needs a long-term Strategy of state migration policy, which will take into account the systemic nature of the phenomenon of migration and the multilevel effects that arise as a result of the impact on the migration situation. The strategy should be based on long-term forecasts of the socio-economic and demographic development of the country, since many current processes affecting decisions in the migration sphere will change in the medium term. For example, scenarios for the development of labor and educational migration show that by the time the relevant tasks of migration regulation are implemented (2024-2025), while maintaining current socio-economic conditions, the attractiveness of the Russian labor and education market for major donors, primarily CIS countries, will decrease, which will require the development of other solutions related, in particular, to the new integration policy [5]. Also, by 2025, the policy of attracting compatriots and migrants from countries close in ethno-cultural terms may exhaust itself, but a large number of foreigners with the necessary professional skills and ready for integration will remain, which will require a special set of socio-political measures to reduce possible social tension. The issue of refugees and internally displaced persons requires special attention. It is obvious that migration for humanitarian reasons should be controlled and legal (legal) and be "an integral part of a balanced and comprehensive migration policy [25-26]. Since migrants arriving in the Russian Federation for humanitarian reasons differ in their characteristics and life scenarios from migrant workers, special measures are needed for their social rehabilitation. Reasoning in economic categories, humanitarian migration is an expenditure item of the budget, labor migration is profitable. The strategy of the state migration policy should contain measures aimed at balancing the costs of migrants and income from migration, as well as at preventing the risks of a migration crisis. Application. List of cited regulatory legal sources 1. The Law of the Russian Federation of November 28, 1991 No. 1948-1 (ed. of 06.02.1995, with amendments. dated 16.05.1996) "On citizenship of the Russian Federation" // Vedomosti SND and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. 1992. No. 6. St. 243. 2. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 626 of June 14, 1992 "On the Federal Migration Service of Russia" // Vedomosti SND and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. 1992. No. 25. St. 1422. 3. Agreement on visa-free movement of citizens of the Commonwealth of Independent States on the territory of its participants (Bishkek, October 9, 1992) // Bulletin of International Treaties. 1993. No. 10. Article 34 (expired). 4. Resolution of the Supreme Council of the Russian Federation of November 13, 1992 No. 3876-1 "On the accession of the Russian Federation to the Convention on the Status of Refugees and the Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees" // Vedomosti SND and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. 1992. No. 49. St. 2863. 5. The Law of the Russian Federation of April 1, 1993 No. 4730-I (ed. of 12/27/2019) "On the State Border of the Russian Federation" // Vedomosti SND and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. 1993. No. 17. St. 594. 6. Federal Law No. 114-FZ of August 15, 1996 (as amended on 03/01/2020) "On the Procedure for Leaving the Russian Federation and entering the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 1996. No. 34. St. 4029. 7. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of August 9, 1994 No. 1668 (ed. of 13.06.1996) "On the Federal migration program" // SZ RF. 1994. No. 18. St. 2065. (expired); Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 10, 1997 No. 1414 "On the Federal Migration Program for 1998-2000" // SZ RF. 1997. No. 47. St. 5406; Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 30, 2000 No. 1034 "On Extending the Implementation Period of Certain Federal Targeted and Other programs" // SZ RF. 2001. No. 2. St. 183. 8. Federal Law No. 99-FZ of May 24, 1999 "On the State Policy of the Russian Federation in relation to Compatriots abroad" // SZ RF. 1999. No. 22. St. 2670. 9. Federal Law No. 62-FZ of May 31, 2002 (as amended on 04/24/2020) "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2002. No. 22. St. 2031.
10. Federal Law No. 115-FZ of July 25, 2002 (as amended on 03/01/2020) "On the Legal Status of foreign citizens in the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2002. No. 30. St. 3032. 11. Federal Law No. 109-FZ of July 18, 2006 (as amended on 01.05.2019) "On migration registration of foreign citizens and stateless persons in the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2006. No. 30. St. 3285. 12. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 9, 2004 No. 314 (ed. of 12.04.2019) "On the system and structure of federal executive authorities" // SZ RF. 2004. No. 11. St. 945. 13. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 637 of June 22, 2006 (ed. of 12.01.2010) "On measures to assist the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad to the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2006. No. 26. St. 2820. 14. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 256-r of March 1, 2003 (On the Concept of regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation) // SZ RF. 2003. No. 10. St. 923. (expired). 15. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated October 9, 2007 No. 1351 (ed. dated 01.07.2014) "On approval of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" // SZ RF. 2007. No. 42. St. 5009. 16. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 1289 of September 14, 2012 (ed. dated 07/24/2020) "On the implementation of the State Program to assist the voluntary resettlement of Compatriots living abroad to the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2012. No. 38. St. 5074. 17. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 21, 2012 No. 636 (ed. of 21.01.2000) "On the structure of federal executive authorities" // SZ RF. 2012. No. 22. St. 2754. 18. The concept of the State migration policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 (approved by the President of the Russian Federation on June 13, 2012, No. Pr-1490) (expired). 19. Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 298 of April 15, 2014 "On approval of the State program of the Russian Federation "Promotion of employment of the population" // SZ RF. 2014. No. 18. St. 2147. 20. Federal Law No. 409-FZ of December 1, 2014 "On Amendments to the Labor Code of the Russian Federation and Article 13 of the Federal Law "On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation" related to the Specifics of Regulating the work of Employees who are Foreign Citizens or Stateless Persons" // SZ RF. 2014. No. 49 (part VI). Article 6918. 21. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 683 of December 31, 2015 "On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2016. No. 1 (Part II). Article 212. 22. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 156 of April 5, 2016 (ed. dated 05/15/2018) "On improving public administration in the field of control over the turnover of narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances and their precursors and in the field of migration" // SZ RF. 2016. No. 15. St. 2071. 23. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 622 dated October 31, 2018 "On the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025" // SZ RF, 2018. No. 45. St. 6917. 24. Federal Law No. 544-FZ of December 27, 2018 "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2018. No. 53 (part I). Article 8470. 25. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 58-rp dated March 6, 2019 (ed. dated 07/06/2020) "On the Working Group on the implementation of the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025" // SZ RF. 2019. No. 10. St. 957. 26. Federal Law No. 134-FZ of April 24, 2020 "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation" regarding simplification of the procedure for Admission to Citizenship of the Russian Federation of foreign citizens and stateless persons" // SZ RF. 2020. No. 17. St. 2712. 27. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 342 dated May 12, 2023 "On Amendments to the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 622 dated October 31, 2018" // Official Internet Portal of Legal Information. URL: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202305120003 (accessed: 11.07.2023). 28. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 207-r dated February 13, 2019 (ed. dated 08/31/2019) (On approval of the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025) // SZ RF. 2019. No. 7 (Part II). Article 702. 29. Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of March 28, 2019 No. 348 (ed. of 30.03.2020) "On Amendments to the State program of the Russian Federation "Promotion of employment"" // SZ RF. 2019. No. 14 (Part II). Article 1538. 30. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 58-rp dated March 6, 2019 (ed. dated 07/06/2020) "On the Working Group on the implementation of the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025" // SZ RF. 2019. No. 10. St. 957. 31. "Proposals for the reform of migration regimes and the institution of citizenship of the Russian Federation" // Appendix to the list of instructions on the implementation of the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025 (approved by the President of the Russian Federation on March 6, 2020, No. Pr-469). 32. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 474 of July 21, 2020 "On National development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030" // SZ RF. 2020. No. 30. St. 4884. 33. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 265-r dated February 22, 2019 (ed. dated 12/20/2022) (On the action plan for the implementation in 2019-2021 of the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025) // SZ RF. 2019. No. 9. St. 869. 34. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 1352 of July 29, 2022 (ed. dated 03/24/2023) "On grant support for talented foreign citizens and stateless persons studying in Russian organizations engaged in educational activities on the territory of the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2022. No. 32. St. 5829. 35. Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of October 15, 2015 No. 1106 (ed. of 10/13/2017) "On approval of the Rules for monitoring the situation on the labor market of the Russian Federation in the subjects of the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2015. No. 43. St. 5965. 36. Federal Law No. 172-FZ of June 28, 2014 (as amended on 07/31/2020) "On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation" // SZ RF. 2014. No. 26 (Part I). Article 3378.
References
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4. Komarovsky, V.V. (2019). The concept of migration policy and labor migration: what can or should be done? Social Sciences and modernity, 5, 132–141.
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7. The number of users of "Public Services" increased in the first half of 2022 to 97.5 million (2022). TASS, July 22. Retrieved from https://tass.ru/ekonomika/15286447
8. You can inform the Ministry of Internal Affairs about the conclusion or termination of an employment contract with migrants through Public Services (2022). Official website of the Ministry of Communications of Russia, January 17. Retrieved from https://digital.gov.ru/ru/events/41409
9. ASI proposed to Mishustin to equate migrants with Russians for receiving benefits (2020). TASS, April 20. Retrieved from https://tass.ru/ekonomika/8282613
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Peer Review
Peer reviewers' evaluations remain confidential and are not disclosed to the public. Only external reviews, authorized for publication by the article's author(s), are made public. Typically, these final reviews are conducted after the manuscript's revision. Adhering to our double-blind review policy, the reviewer's identity is kept confidential.
The list of publisher reviewers can be found here.
The subject of the research in the article submitted for review is, as its name implies, the transformation of Russia's migration policy. The author paid special attention to the stages of such, its features and problems, covering the time period from 1989 to 2023. The declared boundaries of the study are fully respected by the scientist. The methodology of the research is not disclosed in the text of the article, but it is obvious that the scientists used universal dialectical, logical, statistical, historical, formal and legal research methods. The relevance of the research topic chosen by the author is justified by him as follows: "Effective management of migration resources is one of the urgent and non–trivial tasks for a modern state, since migration is both one of the important tools for promoting economic development in the context of a demographic crisis and a shortage of labor resources, and a source of risks to socio-political stability. In this context, it is of interest to analyze migration policy documents over a long period of time in order to periodize it (highlight stages that differ in their content) and identify factors that determine the stability and variability of the migration flow management system." Additionally, the scientist needs to list the names of the leading experts who have been engaged in the study of the problems raised in the article, as well as reveal the degree of their study. The scientific novelty of the study is manifested in the author's identification of seven stages of the evolution of migration policy in the Russian Federation and a number of his conclusions - "An analysis of the last stages of the development of migration regulation shows that Russian migration management policy is becoming more and more adaptive"; "Since 1989, the course of Russian migration policy has fluctuated in a corridor defined by two equally valuable Equally important priorities are the interests of national security and the interests of economic development. In practice, the measures that make it possible to ensure these priorities are implemented by different management units (law enforcement and socio-economic) and compete with each other. As a result, Russian migration policy is characterized by inconsistency and is "twice adaptive"; "Chronological analysis shows an increase in the speed of changes in migration regulation"; "It seems that in order to increase the effectiveness of migration management, the Russian Federation needs a long-term Strategy of state migration policy, which will take into account the systemic nature of the migration phenomenon and the multilevel effects that arise as a result of the impact on the migration situation," etc. The work was done at a fairly high academic level, since it is based on a significant number of diverse sources. Thus, the article makes a definite contribution to the development of domestic legal science and deserves the attention of the readership. The scientific style of the article is fully sustained by the author. The structure of the work is quite logical. In the introductory part of the article, the author substantiates the relevance of his chosen research topic. The main part of the work is divided into several sections: "Periodization of modern Russian migration policy"; "Features of the last stages of migration policy"; "Adaptive nature of migration policy". The final part of the article contains conclusions based on the results of the study. The content of the article fully corresponds to its title and does not cause any special complaints. The bibliography of the study is presented by 36 normative legal acts, as well as 26 theoretical and empirical sources (monographs, scientific articles, analytical and statistical data), including in English. As the author himself points out, in general, "The source base of the study was an array of legal acts of the Russian Federation from 1989 to 2022 (about 100 documents) – federal laws, decrees and orders of the President of the Russian Federation, resolutions and orders of the Government of the Russian Federation, concepts of migration policy, acts of ministries and departments, as well as materials of speeches by the Head of State meetings of various interdepartmental commissions and high-level specialized working groups." From a formal and factual point of view, this is quite enough. The nature and number of sources used in writing the article allowed the scientist to reveal the research topic with the necessary depth and completeness. There is an appeal to the opponents and is of a general nature due to the focus of the study. The scientific discussion is conducted by the author correctly. The provisions of the article are reasoned to the necessary extent and illustrated with tables and figures. There are conclusions based on the results of the study (""Analysis of the last stages of the development of migration regulation shows that Russian migration management policy is becoming more and more adaptive"; "Since 1989, the course of Russian migration policy has fluctuated in a corridor defined by two equally valuable, equally significant priorities: the interests of national security and the interests of economic development. In practice, the measures that make it possible to ensure these priorities are implemented by different management units (law enforcement and socio-economic) and compete with each other. As a result, Russian migration policy is characterized by inconsistency and is "twice adaptive"; "Chronological analysis shows an increase in the speed of changes in migration regulation"; "It seems that in order to increase the effectiveness of migration management, the Russian Federation needs a long-term Strategy of state migration policy, which will take into account the systemic nature of the migration phenomenon and the multilevel effects that arise as a result of the impact on the migration situation", etc.), they have the properties of reliability and validity. Thus, they deserve the attention of readers. The interest of the readership in the article submitted for review can be shown primarily by experts in the field of constitutional and administrative law, provided that it is slightly improved: additional justification of the relevance of the chosen research topic and disclosure of its methodology.
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