China’s Interests in the Balkans

Shaheti Ayibota PhD in History Postgraduate Student, Department of Theory and History of International Relations, Russian People’s Friendship University 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6 1042218009@pfur.ru Other publications by this author

IntroductionThe influence of the People's Republic of China around the world is growing at a previously unprecedented pace: China's GDP growth is not comparable to the growth of the "Big Seven" countries ^[1], the political influence of China and the BRICS, in particular, overshadows the successes of the countries of the old and new world ^[2].

The Balkan region has not become an exception from the list of priority goals of the People's Republic of China.

By itself, the space of the Balkan peninsula has a rather advantageous geographical position: the territory is washed by 5 seas (Adriatic and Ionian from the West, Aegean and Marmara from the Southeast, Black from the East), the region is saturated with minerals. The states located on this territory usually include Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Romania, Northern Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey, Croatia and Montenegro ^[3].

However, despite such a favorable geographical location and the general benefits of the region, the peninsula is quite conflictual and unstable. Such a political, social and economic situation is caused by a number of factors: the multi-ethnic composition of the region, the repeated transition of the states of the region from one empire to another, interethnic hostility, unresolved territorial disputes after the collapse of Yugoslavia, and much more. Therefore, the well–established name of the Balkan peninsula - "the powder keg of Europe" has not lost its relevance ^[4].

Based on the growing economic and political influence of the People's Republic of China, the gradual restructuring of the world, moving away from monopolarity, the conflict of the Balkan Peninsula region, it is necessary to analyze China's political and economic relations with key players in the region, to identify the Chinese strategy in relation to this region, to identify objective factors influencing it, to identify China's interests in the Balkans. This study is based on the theory of political realism, which characterizes relations between states as rivalry or enmity in order to protect their national interests. The absence of confrontation between States is considered as a temporary phenomenon, replaced by confrontation and/or military actions. During the research, the author applied institutional, analytical and problem-chronological methods.

China's relations with the Republic of SerbiaBilateral relations between the PRC and the Republic of Serbia (Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) were established on January 2, 1955.

Throughout the collapse of Yugoslavia, China supported the Serbian side, condemning the activities of Albanian separatists and the secession of Kosovo. The anti-American position of the PRC towards the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia only intensified after the treacherous bombing attack on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. As a result of the airstrike on the Chinese mission, at least 3 people were killed and injured.

Moreover, the Chinese side does not recognize the sovereignty of Kosovo due to the existence of a problem similar to the Serbian one: claims to territorial integrity by Western states in the form of fr. Taiwan. Serbia also recognizes Taiwan as part of China, and accordingly supports the "one China" policy.

Relations between the PRC and Serbia have a number of objective reasons: political solidarity regarding the multipolarity of the world order, common victims during the NATO aggression against Yugoslavia, Serbia's non-alignment, Serbia's economic development favorable for financial investments after the upheavals of the 1990s ^[5]

 In addition, the total trade turnover between the two countries is more than 4.2 billion US dollars. Of course, the advantage is on the side of the Celestial Empire, which exported goods worth 3.17 billion US dollars to Serbia in 2021, while Serbia – 1.03 billion US dollars ^[6].

China's relations with RomaniaBilateral relations between the two states are rooted in Romania's socialist past: in 1949.

The stability of relations depended primarily on the relationship between the USSR and the PRC, a particular deterioration occurred after the death of I.V. Stalin and the coming to power of N.S. Khrushchev in the USSR.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the entire socialist bloc in Europe, Romania, which was transitioning to a capitalist economy, needed a reliable trading partner in order to keep the economy "afloat". At the time of 1990, Romania's GDP was 39 billion US dollars, by 2000 this figure had fallen to 37.25 billion US dollars, but in 2008 it amounted to 214 billion US dollars ^[7]. Therefore, Romania is one of the strongest economies on the Balkan peninsula.

An important place in Romania's foreign trade is played by the People's Republic of China, which exports goods and services worth more than 6.8 billion US dollars, while Romania supplies goods and services worth 1.57 billion US dollars to China ^[8].

It is important to understand that Romania has been a member of the NATO North Atlantic Alliance since 2004 and the European Union since 2007, but such a political commitment to Romania does not affect the PRC's relations with the latter due to the competent policy of economic expansion of the Celestial Empire.

China's relations with BulgariaThe construction of bilateral relations between China and the Republic of Bulgaria followed a similar scenario to the Romanian one: the establishment of relations in 1949, the deterioration of relations with the PRC due to the decline of the Soviet-Chinese, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc, a protracted crisis and the search for a reliable trading partner outside the Balkan region.

The trade turnover between China and Bulgaria in 2021 reached 4 billion US dollars, of which China exports 2.56 billion to Bulgaria, and Bulgaria exports 1.49 billion US dollars to China ^[9].

As in the case of Romania, China does not attach much importance to Bulgaria's accession to NATO in 2004 and to the EU in 2007.

 China's relations with the Republic of TurkeyBilateral relations between the PRC and the Republic of Turkey were established after the latter recognized the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of China.

Political relations between two States cannot be described as stable, primarily the fault of the Turkish side: until the mid-2010s, the tension remained in view of the position of the Turkish government against the Uighur issue: in 2009, the Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the policy of China in the Xinjiang Uyghur AO as genocide, however, against the background of deteriorating relations with the West, Turkey has changed the rhetoric, and began to follow the policy of "one China" that has changed drastically in 2019, when Turkey launched a condemnation of China because of a policy of assimilation of Uyghurs ^[10]. This leads to a pattern stating that Turkey's relations with China depend on the Turks' relations with Western countries.

Economic cooperation between China and Turkey does not suffer from a sharp change in Erdogan's political course. The total trade turnover of the two states is more than 35.4 billion US dollars in 2021. The trade imbalance is on the side of the PRC, which supplies more than 31 billion dollars worth of goods and services to Turkey, while Turkey supplies 3.79 billion US dollars ^[11].

It is important to note that neither Turkey's membership in NATO, nor the republic's policy on the territory of Syria, nor Erdogan's abrupt changes in course have any effect on economic cooperation between the two states, China's economic weight literally forces Turkey to trade, especially given the favorable geographical location of the latter. Turkey is a gateway to Europe, which is one of the main destinations of Chinese trade routes.

The Balkan Peninsula in the context of the One Belt and One Road projectThe People's Republic of China, aimed at expanding its economic influence, in 2013 presented the "One Belt and One Road" project, which should connect the West and the East by trade routes, literally become the revival of the Silk Road.

This project consists of two corridors: the land (the Economic Belt of the New Silk Road) and the sea (the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century) ^[12].

The land corridor passing through a huge number of countries in Asia, the Middle East and Europe will become a key trade, financial, tourist and investment route, will pass through the Balkan region: Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania.

Of course, China is focused on the implementation of this grandiose project, because it will allow to conquer a huge number of markets, especially the European one, without hindrance. Therefore, the preservation of favorable relations with the countries of the Balkan peninsula also remains a priority ^[13].

ConclusionThe growing political and economic influence of China does not remain closed in the Asian region, the Celestial Empire is looking for new routes for the sale of its goods, therefore the "One Belt and One Road" project and, especially, its land part play an important role in the implementation of the previously mentioned plans ^[14].

The Chinese side considers the Balkan region purely from the point of view of economic benefits that meet the interests of the Celestial Empire, but the PRC also finds a political partnership in the region in the person of Serbia. Leveling the high conflict potential of the region, the Chinese side does not take part in confrontations, but establishes economic ties to build a "bridge" to Europe.